Cheltenham International Meeting - Friday 14th December

For the first time this season, Cheltenham will hold a fixture where I'm not in attendance. Although I would love to be there, I'm looking forward to watching from the comfort of my living room, in the warmth with an endless supply of hot beverages throughout the day.

Cheltenham

12:15 - Shloer Novices Chase

Of the 7 runners, you could make a case for at least 5 of these. A Nicky Henderson novice chaser is always respected and in Broadbackbob he saddles a horse with lofty expectations, he is considered a real RSA type (can be found as short as 14/1 with Skybet) by his handler and his smooth debut victory at Plumpton was impressive. Last year the Neptune was target but a chipped hock kept him off the track in the spring, missing that engagement may have been a blessing in disguise bearing in mind how his stablemate Simonsig turned the contest into a procession. He has the strongest appeal of these and is my idea of the most likely winner, but 6/5 is keeping me away, that's plenty short enough. Super Duty had good form in novice hurdles last year, most noticeably when 2nd to Simonsig at Aintree. A bad mistake 2 out scuppered his chances of victory although Simonsig was still hard on the bridle whilst upsides, it's unlikely he would won anyway. His novice chasing campaign started with a nice pipe opener at Carlisle, on all form he should of won but the trip was on the sharp side and his second placed finish probably wasn't the worst effort. That effort set him up for a much improved run at Haydock last time out. Poungach had his measure that day and although they pulled 28 lengths clear of useful horses such as Gullinbursti and Knock A Hand, it may be flattering as the ground was soft and would provide an explanation to why they finished so strung out. On that line of form he has a chance but others appeal more at the prices, 11/4 is a bit short for what he has achieved so far.

Hildisvini (Orange) - He looks to be a horse going in the right direction and merits a step up in class

Hildisvini has racked up a two timer over fences so far this season, subsequently he must give weight away to all his rivals here. Both victories have come at Huntingdon, with Well Regarded from the Emma Lavelle stable twice 2nd, Forgotten Gold was also 3rd. He will need to step up to compete here, but he is a horse going in the right direction and has merited a step up in class. We will find out a lot more about him and at the prices, he presents the best value to me at 7/1 generally. Rebel Rebellion will be back in his comfort zone stepping back up to 2 and a half miles after being outpaced behind Captain Conan here last month over 2, his victory at Exeter over 2 and a half was quite taking considering he led from start to finish. On that basis he may be hard to pass here, but the 2nd and 3rd haven't franked the form since and there's every chance he will be outclassed. Others are preferred. Forgotten Gold's win over 3 miles at Aintree last time out has worked out ok, First Fandango was behind him that day and has won since, but it isn't the strongest of form and coming back to 2 and a half here isn't ideal, he appeared to better the further he went at Aintree. Decent Cheltenham form is in the book but he's in a similar boat to Rebel Rebellion, I don't think he will be good enough for this.

Advice - Hildisvini - 1pt Win @8/1 Paddy Power

1:20 - CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Handicap Hurdle

Dark Lover is sure to be popular after his course and distance win in October and he was far from disgraced last month when stepping up in class in the Racing Post hurdle, he was only beaten 8 lengths. This is more similar to the October contest and if he can repeat his last two efforts, he stands a very good chance. The form is in the book and siding against the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh duo hasn't been advisable this season. 9/2 isn't the best value but in my opinion isn't the worst either. Strong claims. Turn Over Sivola was turned over when odds on on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton but then put the record straight at Plumpton last month with a 7 length victory when odds on once again. He has only been raised a pound for that victory and may have something in hand, but this is tougher and I personally think he has found his level. Bold Chief is a lightly raced 7 year old who is open to further improvement, he has claims in the back of his 2nd here in April behind Captain Sunshine. He reappeared at Kempton when he weakened tamely and was eventually pulled up, he also comes back in trip here which could be to his advantage, but there is enough to put me off. Tom Du Lys and Top Of The Range both make their seasonal bows for Nicky Henderson and have claims, the formers first run for the trainer last year came at Sandown on desperate ground, although he is French bred a return to a sounder surface here may assist. Nampour is likely to go from the front and has a chance but others are preferred whilst Dan Breen still has a win in him somewhere but this is competitive and he's more exposed than others. A tentative vote goes to Falcarragh. Tim Vaughan has had him on the go throughout the summer but his consistency is admirable and shows no sign of relenting. 4th in a 4 year old hurdle won by the talented Court Minstrel here in October was a good effort and he followed this up with a solid 3rd here again in November behind Ifandbutwhynot, the 2nd has won since. This looks a competitive contest once again and he has gone up 3lb for his last effort, but he is certain to run his race and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Falcarragh - 1pt EW @Bet365

1:55 - Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase

Midnight Chase is high enough in the handicap but returns to his favourite track for a race he has won before, 4/1 is a tad short but doesn't lack value.

I think you've got to look atwhich horses are using this race as a stepping stone to the Welsh National later in the month, consequently s few won't want to be showing there hands too early here. Bradley was a bit of an unlucky loser here last month when being nabbed by a 25/1 shot in ground that was testing, a drop back in 2 furlongs probably isn't ideal considering he was outpaced over 3 miles here in October. He can be found as short as 10/1 for the Welsh National but I don't know which race Fergal O'Brien is targeting, this race is worth £25,000 so if this is the target he does have strong claims. Quartz De Thaix is a much improved horse this year, Venetia Williams may have finally got the bottom of him as stamina tests have brought out the best in him. Chepstow is his target so it's unlikely he will want to play his hand here. Master Overseer has Chepstow on his radar and must improve after what was a dire run at Haydock last time out, whilst Billie Magern needs to put some disappointing efforts behind him. Becauseicouldntsee has a couple of 2nd placed finishes at the Festival to his name, he prefers the better ground he finds outside of Ireland but he runs off a career high mark of 145 and probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race, but wouldn't be without a chance. Saint Are is a bit of an Aintree specialist and prefers a flat track, can't help but feel this is a bit of an after thought following an early exit from the Hennessy 2 weeks ago. Planet Of Sound is gradually falling down the handicap and is off a workable mark of 152 here, he won the Haldon Gold Cup of this mark 3 years ago. His seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was a tame effort which is off-putting and the Hobbs team aren't in the best from, it's enough to make me look elsewhere. Which leaves course specialist Midnight Chase who looks to be handicapped to the hill off a mark of 160, but doesn't know how to run a bad race. He was ahead of Planet Of Sound in the Charlie Hall, although he ran in snatches it was an good effort considering both the 1st and 2nd have won since. This is a weaker contest, back at his favourite track in a race he has won before.

Advice - Midnight Chase - 3pt Win @4/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh.

@JoshRWDown

The Open Meeting Exclusive - Sunday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll still be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham on Sunday to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

1:10 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
Selection - Captain Conan

Captain Conan - Expected To Make It To The Top Of The Novice Chasing Ranks This Year

Nicky Henderson has been very public in saying how he adores this horse. His novice hurdle campaign was ultimately a successful one, a placed finished at Aintree followed a debut victory in the Tolworth at Sandown in January. The Aintree run behind his stable mate Darlan is solid form, more so than his Tolworth win where he beat Colour Squadron. Whatever Captain Conan did last year was a bonus because he has always been thought of as a chaser. I hear he has been schooling well at home and a stiff 2 miles should suit, I have a niggling doubt that he will want further in time though, he may lack that killer turn of foot over 2 miles. However, I don't think that will be a problem here, there isn't much pace in this race. Sire Du Grugy is the only horse that may have the pace to do Capatain Conan for toe, he is a genuine 2 miler but I wouldn't say he has a killer turn of foot. He had cracking handicap hurdle form last year, notably when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle. He has the scope to make up into a really nice chaser and measured his fences accurately on his debut at Kempton. I worry he is best going right handed. Third Intention would prefer further in my opinion, although he was caught up the run-in here last month. That wasn't the first time he has been caught when clear after the last, Houblon Des Obeaux wore him down at Haydock two years ago, personally I would stick a pair of blinkers on him. I think he is a very frustrating horse to follow, the consistency is there, which I like, but he looks hard to win with and that puts me off. He jumped well on his debut, maybe with too much zest which may have cost him later in the race, but he stays 2 1/2 and I don't think he likes being alone in front. Not for me I'm afraid! Rebel Rebellion ground it out on his chasing debut at Exeter. I thought he had a bit of an ungamely action and didn't look a natural. He jumped well from the front and was barely headed as he stayed on best to get the better of the Bold Henry. However that horse failed to frank the form on Wednesday and he looked like he would need further than 2 miles to me, he ran over 2 3/4 whilst with Charlie Mann, he also has to carry a penalty which won't help. He looks up against it here but he may do ok bearing in mind he will jump well from the front, I fear he will give the better horses a toe into the race, the strong pace he may set will suit horses in behind down to the ground. His Excellency wore down Third Intention to win here last month, this is a much tougher race and looks to have each-way claims at best. I will have to assess the market nearer the time, but I think Sire De Grugy could go off a decent price if the bookmakers get sucked into the Captain Conan hype.

2:50 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Hurdle
Selection - Darlan

Darlan - Champion Hurdle The Target And Horses Of That Mould Have Good Record In The Race, No Value In His Price Though

Darlan is being trained for a crack at the Champion Hurdle this year and Nicky Henderson is pleased with how he has matured over the summer, he looks a really promising sort. Carrying top weight is always a concern, but horses carrying large weights have a good record in this race and have gone on to progress into Champion Hurdle horses. Examples are: Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Brampour last year (carried 11-11 without Harry Derham's claim). It would be fair to say that Darlan fits that mould. I think he is the best horse in the race, will appreciate a strongly ran 2 miles and has a great chance, I have got 5/1 but 3/1 or 5/2 is a ridiculous price, like Grands Crus it represents no value! Cash And Go is a grade 1 winner and had strong form when with Edward O'Grady in Ireland. His transfer to Nicky Henderson's yard is interesting and he looks open to improvement off a mark of 141, however he will have to improve a lot to get the better of Darlan on all given novice hurdle form last year. He receives 10lb off his stable mate here, I personally don't think that's enough. He beat Dylan Ross by only half a length at Leopardstown and Dylan Ross was well down the field in the Supreme Novice, behind Darlan. Domination is the unexposed horse in the race who looks to be on a steep upward curve. His second to Baily Green by a nose over hurdles at Killarney was a decent effort, the winner has gone on to rack up a 5 timer over fences. Beaten a nose by a horse now rated 145 over fences and he runs here off 136, he could be well in on that form. I'm not a huge It's A Gimme fan, but I expect him to run well here on the back of his 2nd at Ascot 2 weeks ago, but Mcmanus has never won this race with his 2nd string and I am confident McCoy will side with the first string Darlan. Moon Dice has had a show of confidence from his trainer during the week. He runs off a pound lower here than he did last year when he was 4th, I think the handicapper still has him in his grasp. This is also a second thought after a disappointing start to his novice chase campaign earlier in the year which is a negative in my eyes. Prospect Wells will have the race run to suit and I think is a solid each way bet, I worry this may come to quick for him after last weeks ding dong battle with Zarkandar. Bothy and Olofi have run admirably in big handicaps, I love their consistency, but I feel the handicapper has them. I don't fancy Kazlian because I don't like backing horses who ran in the Fred Winter in this race, I don't think their quite classy enough otherwise they would have run in the Triumph. The same could be argued for Vendor, however Alan King rates him on a similar level to his top juveniles last year Grumeti and Balder Succes. He could be potentially well handicapped but he pulled very hard at Aintree last month and I wonder whether he would be better suited by a smaller field. Dark Lover won easily in a conditional jockeys handicap here last month, he is obviously on the upgrade but he will have to improve again to win here. Ryan Mahon takes 3lb off which assists and I think he has each way claims. Glam Gerry is my each way bet at a price. 33/1 looks a bit big for me considering he was placed behind Salut Flo at the Festival last year, he won the flat race when Go Native made his comeback and I feel he may stay on into a place.

3:25 - 2 Miles 5 Furlongs. Hyde Novices Hurdle
Selection - Village Vic

Village Vic (Black Sleeves) - Ticks All The Boxes

In my opinion, the form from the October equivalent of this race will stack up well come the spring. Ante-post Neptune Hurdle favourite The New One stayed on strongly to to get the better of Village Vic by 3 lengths, the third, the useful Thomas Crapper, was 21 lengths further behind! Phillip Hobbs rates this gelding very highly, his bumper campaign tailed off a bit last year after a cracking effort to come within a nose of the classy Shutthefrontdoor in February. However, his trainer has admitted he should have put him away after that run and not gone to Cheltenham and Punchestown in he spring. The run last month suggested he has overcome those poor efforts and is back on track, that piece of course form may stand him in good stead here against less experienced horses. He is the safe bet in the race and looks a solid contender. Fox Run had a large reputation in the Point To Point field and made a slick debut success at Worcester for his new stable. He showed good pace to quicken away from the consistent Chargen, it was a really taking performance. You're taking a punt on his untapped potential but he could be anything. Wingtips is my Under The Radar Juvenile for the season, he ran well to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and followed it up with a solid 3rd in the Punchestown equivalent. He was given a bad ride on his seasonal reappearance when 2/9 fav at Fairyhouse earlier in the month, it will have sharpened him up for this though. He has a chance if he can repeat his Triumph Hurdle form. I Shot The Sheriff, apart from being fantastically named (for you Bob Marley fans out there!), showed a smart turn of foot when winning at Wetherby on his hurdling debut and looks to have improved for the summer. He was quite a weak bumper horse last year and he has also moved to David Pipe's stable during the off season. I wouldn't put him out of it on the back of that win, he could be a horse at a price that may warrant some respect. According To Trev won the 3 mile novice hurdle here last month, he looked slow and may get outpaced here when stepping back in trip. Also the race looked poor and he has to carry a penalty, not a lot in his favour in my opinion. Bondage is another horse who won here last month in a 2 1/2 handicap hurdle, McCoy gave it a great ride that day but will be deserting him for the JP McManus owned Dursey Sound here. He also carries a penalty and is likely to get out classed. The fore mentioned Dursey Sound will have the champion jockey on board, his form isn't the strongest and will need to improve to win here but he could be anything.

My selections for the day:
1:10 - Captain Conan
1:45 - Malt Master, Well Sharp, Close House (Undecided)
2:20 - Sprinter Sacre
2:50 - Darlan
3:25 - Village Vic
4:00 - Fascino Rustico

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

THE REVIEW - Friday The 'Showcase' Meeting

There's nothing quite like the atmosphere at Cheltenham, that buzz around the paddock before the opening race cannot be matched. Returning to the 'Home Of Jump Racing' was superb and certainly whet the appetite for next months 'Open Meeting'. If any of you readers have never been to Cheltenham, I can't speak highly enough of the racecourse, it's impossible to leave dissatisfied!

Having had time to reflect on my racing at Cheltenham over the weekend. Lets start at the beginning.....Friday:

Neptune Novices Hurdle:
The race was all about one horse, The New One from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. He was an easy winner at Newton Abbott over 2 miles on his hurdling debut and he was equally impressive when taking this higher class contest. Any doubts what his optimum trip is were promptly swept aside after he powered up the hill to a 3 length victory. 2 1/2 miles is definitely his trip, he will need even further in time. He was slightly novicey at some of his hurdles but otherwise his jumping was safe and when Village Vic asked him a serious question when joining him at the last, he responded strongly to Sam Twiston-Davies urgings and won a cosy 3 lengths. Village Vic looked the best of the rest and seems to fit a similar mould, he will need 3 miles in time too but may be a notch or two below top-class. Top-class is what the winner looked, his trainer after the race stated: 'I think he's very special, I hope his jumping errors were just inexperience. Big Bucks will not go on forever so in 18 months time we might be looking at races like the World Hurdle.' He's obviously rated very highly and looks to be a Gold Cup horse in the making, he will return to Cheltenham next month for the Open Meeting. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so in my pre weekend blog! The New One was a good thing!! http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/selections-showcase-cheltenham.html

The New One

2 Mile 4 Furlong Novice Chase:
Those of you who read my pre weekend blog will know that I was very sweet on the chances of King Of The Night in this race. His 3rd place finish was a good effort and he will have learned a lot from the experience. He jumped nicely throughout, albeit a bit slow and slightly right-handed. I would say that he would be seen best going right-handed. I haven't given up on him yet. Carlito Brigante was a battling winner and was gettable when looking back at his previous winning course form, he's just too inconsistent. He's a notch below top-class but it depends if you catch him on a going day. Domtaline was a bit of an unlucky second, he measured his fences superbly and nearly won by 'out-jumping' his rivals, another day he would of won the race. There's a win in him somewhere this year. I don't understand why Go All The Way was favourite, his form over hurdles wasn't very good and I don't hold him in the same regard as others. He was a beaten horse when he came down and gave Andrew Lynch a cracking limp! The horse I've taken out of the race though is Kingsmere. This resident of the Henry Daly stable came down 2 out and was probably a bit unlucky. He was almost going too well when swinging off the bend and met the second last completely wrong, I don't think he took off, he just ploughed through it. He was tanking along! I think he caught Jake Greenall out, it looked like he let Kingsmere make his own mind up whilst Kingsmere was hoping Greenall would make his mind up for him. Routs (who navigated so incredibly adequately from the back seat on his phone all weekend) told me after the race that whilst on a stable tour Daly had said he really liked this horse and was hoping that he could make a very good chaser. Tell you what Henry. I think you might be right! He's subsequently gone into my Sportinglife stable and I'm hopeful he might be that good horse Henry Daly has been missing since the retirement of Mighty Man.

Kingsmere

Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier:
Have to admit, considering this was one of the most competitive races of the meeting, I didn't do too badly. I tipped Heaney (3rd) from Ireland and Viking Blond (2nd) as an each-way shout. I would take another chance on Heaney as he looked to have a few traffic problems at the top of the hill, although he came there menacingly turning for home, he had used too much petrol to get there and couldn't go with the the front two up the hill. His handicap mark won't change too much and I think he has another win in him. My each-way selection Viking Blond ran a stonker! I felt he may have a good chance off 127 and so it proved, the Twiston-Davies yard had a great meeting and you can't help but feel that this was his day. He looked a picture in the paddock and may have been primed for the race. Twiston-Davies likes to run his horses so I would expect to see him again soon and depending on what happens to his handicap mark, he could go close again this year. He is a reliable type, but I would be interested to see what they do with the blinkers though. He didn't wear them on Friday and it seemed to freshen him up. The winner, Action Master, looked seriously well handicapped and it will be interesting to see how much his rating rises in due course. He won with plenty in hand and I wouldn't be surprised if he was stepped up in class next time out. Sivola De Sivola ran another eye-catcher without getting close to the front end, he's becoming difficult to place.

Viking Blond

3 Mile Novice Chase:
I said I didn't think this was a great novice chase, which may have been a bit harsh, but having seen the outcome I've concluded it was a bit better than I gave it credit, but not that much. The winner, Sire Collonges impressed me a lot actually. He wasn`t that great over hurdles, but I get the impression whatever he did over hurdles was a bonus because he was bought as a chaser and he looks a good chaser too! Like Domtaline, the other Nicholls novice chaser, he jumped immaculately. Nicholls must school his horses like hell because they jump so much better than the other other novices it's embarrassing! Apart from Walsh`s nearly embarrassing loss of balance at the second last the greys performance was perfect. Always prominent, the grey dictated things from the front and was always in control. 20-1 ante-post for the RSA chase looks a bit skimpy at the moment, I don't think he beat much but his style of racing would seem perfect for that race. Jumping from fence to fence, at his own pace, dictating the race might be ideal, it just depends if he's good enough. It's likely he isn't and he may give the better horses a tow into the race. I backed White Star Line, who ran poorly, he made a bad mistake when the race started to hot up which wasn't ideal but I think he was beat anyway. He's not a natural over a fence. Whilst Sire Collonges looked athletic, White Star Line certainly didn't. There's also a possibility he didn't stay 3 miles, may be a revert back to 2 1/2 miles is on the cards?  Sea Of Thunder ran ok but he was never beating Sire Collonges, if he wasn't a Gigginstown horse he wouldn't of gone off 11/8 favourite! The winner looks like fences have been the making of him and he ticks a lot of the right boxes. He's progressive and you can't help but like the horse.

Sire Collonges Falls At Aintree Last Year

Maiden Hurdle:
Court Minstrel gave owner Janet Davies her first winner at Cheltenham and upset the big boys whilst doing so. He was smooth in success and is a strong traveller, which should hold him in good stead when competing in better company. It depends how much he will find off the bridle, looking at Friday's 4 length victory it's feasible to say he will find plenty, the winning margin was extending all the way to line. He strengthens the form of The New One who beat him in the Aintree Bumper and also the highly rated novice Tistory from the Henderson yard who beat him 3/4 length at Ludlow. I like him an awful lot. The award for worst effort of the meeting across the two days goes to the John Ferguson trained Population who pulled up just after half way. It was weird. Titan De Sarti made a much improved return after a lengthy lay off, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but stayed on past beaten horses to take 3rd, a step up in trip looks on the cards and he may be an animal on an upward curve this term. Landscape from the Paul Nicholls stable ran disappointingly but may have needed the run after nearly a year off. Softsong from the Phillip Hobbs stable pulled like hell and was so free that Richard Johnson let him stride on and although he finished 5th beaten 13 lengths he was bang there at the last. He made a mistake and soon weakened but he may be one to keep an eye on because his effort was better than it appears at first sight. The Romford Pele has course form following his 7th in the Cheltenham Bumper and looks like a decent yardstick.

Titan De Sarti Ran A Much Better Race

Amateur Riders Handicap Chase:
I fancied Iheardu, if I put you onto the horse, I'm sorry Uheardme. It was a terrible bet! Always in rear and never closer until pulled up. When he won this race last year it was a much weaker renewal than this year, the winner Hunters Lodge was a classic case of 'follow the in form trainers!' http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/autumn-twiston-davies-factor.html He became the second part of a Twiston-Davies double, albeit slightly fortuitously! The Gordon Elliot trained Romanesco was p*****g all over him at the last until he landed too steep and turned over on landing, leaving jockey J J Codd thumping the ground with frustration. The back seat sleeper (apparently he only snores when horizontal, thank god!) stood in his lucky spot on the grass, whilst the rest of us sat in the seats. The lucky spot had brought him a winner when Court Minstrel won the previous race and he wasn't for persuading when asked if he was watching with us. Immediately after Hunters Lodge crossed the line we looked down to where he was standing and saw him stationary, looking a bit glum. We assumed he had backed Romanesco, I was praying he had backed Romanesco! Sadly, he had backed the winner. I was already lining up the abuse he was going to receive that evening! The one day ban some of the jockeys got for showing 'misconduct' was ridiculous. The 3 mile start isn't in a suitable position to cater for big fields in handicaps, the entrance onto the course just isn't wide enough to have 20 jockeys competing for very little room, consequently it gets messy. The start is fine for smaller fields but it's not working for the bigger fields. Amendments needed please Simon Claisse.

Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle:
This race looked seriously difficult on paper. It turned out to be much easier than it looked after Dark Lover won very decisively, Ryan Mahon gave it a peach of a ride and as soon as they turned in there was only one winner. The 605 day absence obviously didn't hinder him in any way, you would expect he's a miles better than the 120 rating he was running off! He should step up in class now and he could have another handicap win in him, he is on an upward curve. Changing Of The Guard ran another great race, ever consistent but always finds one to good. I hope the handicapper is kind to him because you have to admire his reliability. Persian Snow ran an eye-catching race, staying on from the rear to take 3rd. He was very highly thought of in his early days, I remember him winning a bumper around Ascot a couple of years ago and kept an eye out for him afterwards. He was saved for the Aintree bumper but didn't make the shake up, sadly he didn't transfer that form to hurdles initially. It appears he may be starting to get his act together over hurdles now, could appreciate a step up in trip and perhaps one to put in your Sportinglife stable.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown