Champion Hurdle 2013

Champion Hurdle 2013

Day ones feature contest has a much more open feel to it this year than it did last. It's very likely Hurricane Fly will start favourite again this year having had a much better preparation than last, Willie Mullins has had a clear run with the gelding, taking his grade 1 tally to 14 in the process. Worryingly for his rivals, the last time he had a preparation like this he was an awesome winner of the contest in 2011. The credentials he brings to the table are exceptional; he jumps athletically, has a high cruising speed and has the ability to quicken at blistering speed. If he puts it all together on the day he will be extremely difficult to beat. For all the superlatives, he has disappointed before, notably here when only 3rd behind Rock On Ruby twelve months ago. I still have doubts whether the stiff nature of Cheltenham sees him at his best, additionally the form of his 2011 win hasn't worked out well, so much so it could be classified as a poor renewal. I feel there are others in the line up who are more than capable of seizing on any mishap, no horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 has regained the Champion Hurdle, consequently 6/4 doesn't represent any value.

Zarkandar has been excellently campaigned by Paul Nicholls this season. Another who has had a much smoother preparation for the contest this year, Zarkandar has taken the: Elite, International and Kingwell hurdles in a manner of a horse who has matured, appearing to fulfil the potential he displayed when scoring in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. He was never considered to be right last year, to his credit he took the Betfair Hurdle and was a staying on 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He will get every yard of the 2 miles and has the ability to lay up with the pace so the likelihood of getting outpaced like last year is less of a worry. A negative is I don't see a front runner in the race, therefore not any obvious pace, although there will never be a slowly run Champion Hurdle, this will probably go against Zarkandar, he likes to race prominently but won't want to lead, he may just give the speed horses behind a tow into the race. Also I think the old course is less likely to suit than the new course, it is more of a speed test which again isn't ideal. I can't be having him at 9/2.

Last years champion Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong since his victory twelve months ago. Without the benefit of a run he ran well for a long period in the International on ground softer than ideal, he followed that up with a fortunate win at Doncaster last time out when the ill-fated Darlan was cantering all over him. There is a argument his Champion Hurdle win was slightly fortuitous last year, having raced prominently he was never reached by those behind, the jockeyship of the beaten horses has to come into question and on that basis he doesn't deserve to be 11/2 in my opinion. I also fear the gelding has had a very stop-start season. Harry Fry has been umming and erring when to run, consistently waiting for some good ground, having many declarations throughout the year without a clear plan isn't the best of preparations. Also the lack of obvious pace in the race will probably be against him, like Zarkandar he will want to prominent but not lead and set the pace, he may just set the race up, there are too many negatives.

GRANDOUET has been my ante-post fancy since the start of the season. He missed the Festival last year through injury but his one effort this term proved he has lost none of the old talent. He reappeared in the International Hurdle in December, like Rock On Ruby he didn't have the benefit of a run, but travelled and jumped well in the bad ground, he quickened after the last but wasn't able to out-battle the match fit Zarkandar. He is an out-and-out 2 miler with pace to burn and an electric turn of foot which could see him accelerate past those up with the pace off the home turn. The main negative is he has only appeared once this year, a minor setback forced him to miss his intended engagement in the Kingwell, consequently a lack of match practice is a worry. However, at 13/2 he appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and has a lot of untapped potential. He fits the mould of the speed horse I am siding with this year.

The mercurial Binocular is something of a forgotten horse. On his day he is brilliant, so much so he would be much shorter than the 9/1 he is currently trading at, it just depends what Binocular turns up. Put a line through his reappearance, historically he has needed the run first time out and the ground was against him, consequently he wasn't given a hard time by McCoy. The 2010 champions well-being can be measured by his hurdling, when on song he is electric and the latest update from Nicky Henderson was positive, where he said the gelding was hurdling as well as ever. He can be found at 11/1 in places which represents some value, it just depends if he feels like it, plus he faces the same terrible statistic as Hurricane Fly where only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown.

Cinders And Ashes has come in for considerable support since the long-term forecast has become more positive. Better ground is key to this horse, his form in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdles this year has been poor and doesn't justify the 12/1 he is currently trading at, but it has been on soft ground so it can effectively be excused, when he got his ground last year he won a shade cosily in the Supreme. Although it is likely he has improved for another years maturity, I think he will come up short in this grade, quite simply I don't think he will be good enough.

Another who requires an end to end gallop is Countrywide Flame. I don't agree with the theory that he needs soft ground on the back of his impressive victory in the Fighting Fifth, he just coped with it best on the day. If we're being honest he didn't beat much, Cinders And Ashes hates soft ground, Trifolium ran no sort of race and Bothy simply isn't good enough in the grade. His best two performances came last Spring at Cheltenham and Aintree, both of those were on good ground. However, I do agree with the theory Cheltenhams stiff nature and uphill finish will suit John Quinns charge. On all given form he has a bit to find, since 1939 only four horses have taken the Champion Hurdle after winning the Triumph, only 2 of those were in consecutive years. I think he's got enough on his plate to win the race and I would like to see him bigger than the current 16/1 he is trading to represent any each-way value, he may be bigger on the day.

Others of note are Cotton Mill, he would be of interest as an each-way shout at 25/1, his run in the Betfair Hurdle was solid and he is bound to get every yard of the 2 miles. A return to a sounder surface will suit but with no definite target confirmed you can't back him unless you have the benefit of non-runner no bet.  Steps To Freedom won at Dundalk in taking fashion recently, he has been off all winter due to the poor ground, good ground is a necessity but I doubt he is classy enough. He ran poorly in last years Supreme before disappointing at Fairyhouse, he has enough to prove in the grade. Khyber Kim ran ok on is reappearance in the Kingwell after a long lay off, it would be a shock if an 11 year old was at his peak and I doubt he is up to it nowadays. Raya Star has been a superstar this year for Alan King, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle was a cracking run, although I'm not sure it is a strong form line of you take Darlan out of the race. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame didn't run up to scratch, I would be surprised if 3rd placed Dodging Bullets was up to Champion Hurdle standard either. Additionally, his best form has come at Ascot, Cheltenham is the other way round and his effort in the County Hurdle last year was his worst of the season. I would be surprised if he's good enough.

In conclusion, although the race will not been run slowly, I have doubts whether it will be run at the usual breakneck speed with no obvious pace setter in the field. There will be horses who like to race prominently, most notably Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby, however my thoughts are that they will set the race up for those speed horse behind who will be able to pick them off after jumping the last. Of course there is a chance they won't be able to get past the leaders, repeating the scenes of Hardy Eustace's second Champion Hurdle in 2005. It is an intriguing contest which may turn into a tactical affair, which if it does, I would rather side with the speed horses with that killer turn of foot. Of those: Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular fit the mould with GRANDOUET taking preference at the prices.

Advice - Grandouet - 2pt Win @13/2 William Hill/Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

Cheltenham International Meeting - Saturday 15th December

Fridays action was a good one for me financially, but in terms of the blogs selections, things could have gone better. Hildisvini sadly lost his life after his fall at the 2nd last, he wouldn't have won but wasn't disgracing himself in defeat. It's a real shame as he was a horse on an upward curve going places, how far he would of gone we will never know. Falcarragh appeared to get stuck in the mud and Midnight Chase was a non-runner. The ground has deteriorated dramatically today and the heavy going makes tomorrow much more difficult, in particular as there is a few short priced favourites who look vulnerable.

Cheltenham 

12:45 - Ryman Stationary Novices Chase

Court In Motion will love the ground and doesn't appear to have lost any ability after injury,  but won't want to be too much shorter than 5/2 (if he turns up)

Our Father is sure to be a popular choice after his effortless win here last month, his jumping was accurate and precise, possibly a bit big, but he cruised though the soft ground to win by a comfortable 20 lengths. On that basis he has strong claims here. It's unlikely he will get stuck in the mud, he has a lot of scope and proved he handles the cut in the ground he will face tomorrow last time out. A worry is he has been seen best fresh in the past, on his 3 seasonal reappearances he has won all 3, but has failed to follow these up and has been a little disappointing thereafter. Also regular pilot Timmy Murphy is out injured, although Tom Scudamore is a more than able deputy, the winning partnership has been broken. Overall, there is enough to put me off, especially at 4/5, that's plenty short enough. If Lingfield (First Preference) is off, Court In Motion takes the vote as a strong travelling horse who goes in the heavy. His victory as a novice hurdler in testing conditions at Warwick was very impressive, finishing 2nd to Back In Focus, who is making a mockery of staying novice chases on testing ground in Ireland for Willie Mullins, on his next start as a novice hurdler was far from poor, what was most taking was the smooth headway and strong travelling qualities he showed on both appearances. He progressed to run third in the Albert Bartlett so course form is in the book before injury struck and he had a lay off. His two comeback starts over fences have been promising behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Dynaste and he receives weight from all his rivals here, he wouldn't want to get any shorter than 5/2 though. Emma Lavelle also saddles Highland Lodge, he flopped in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Warwick behind Cotton Mill last season but has made a smooth transition to fences this term. Harry Topper sprouted wings to over take him at Newbury last time out, however he did look held in second beforehand and his official rating of 139 leaves him with something to find with the former two. What A Warrior hasn't been disgraced in two novice chase defeats here this term, his jumping must improve but if he gets his act together he could run into 2nd at a big price. Best Served Cold has soft ground form in the book in Ireland, but doesn't appeal here as Simply Ben has a lot to find on official ratings.

Advice - (Depending on whether Court In Motion is a non-runner)
CIM Runs - 3pt win @11/4 Bet365 
CIM Non-Runner - 2pt Straight Forecast - Our Father to beat What A Warrior

1:20 - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase

Pepite Rose will prefer betting going but is a model of consistency and may run into a place

Shooters Wood looks to build upon his win in the November running of this race here last month, he has been raised 8lb for that win to 132 which could be workable and gets in here off 10 stone. Ruby Walsh is doing his minimum weight and having him aboard is a huge plus as the winning partnership is retained, but he is one I'm going to side against here. His has never raced on anything worse than soft, considering he has been on the go throughout the summer, he would probably prefer better ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Also he showed plenty of speed last time out but that weapon may be blunted tomorrow on softer ground and on the new course, which tests stamina further than the old, may further mitigate his high speed. Oiseau Du Nuit is a very admirable horse and owes me nothing, but his current mark of 158 is career high and conceding a stone all round is going to be hard in this ground, easily opposed. Pepite Rose was a massive improver last year, her two starts this year have been a little disappointing, particularly last time out on heavy ground at Ascot. I think she will be better seen on better ground and tomorrow probably isn't her day, but she is likely to run into a place. Her mark of 144 is high enough, but she is only a 5 year old and hopefully still has improvement in her. Oh Crick ran a cracker behind Ulck Du Lin at Newbury after running creditably here in November, although Joshua Newman takes off a valuable 7lb, he still looks in the hands of the handicapper. Imperial Shabra has a 6lb higher rating in the UK than he does in Ireland and has a lot on his plate here, whilst West With The Wind has been hopelessly out of form recently. That leaves David Pipe's two runners. His Excellency won here in October and his still a novice, he was well behind in the Tingle Creek last week and looks held off 147. Potentially the stables first string is a newcomer from France who makes his British debut here. Garynella has form on the soft in France and has form over further than 2 miles, this race will take some getting in the ground and proving he gets further than 2 miles sways him into favour. He is officially 2lb out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me to much and he gets in off a featherweight. It hasn't gone unnoticed as he's 7/2 joint-favourite generally, which is possibly a tad short so at the prices I will be having Pepite Rose E/W.

Advice - Pepite Rose - 1.5pt EW @17/2 Bet365
Garrynella - 3pt Win @4/1 Paddy Power

2:30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

Notus De La Tour should handle the ground and has a big race win in him somewhere

Walkon is fancied to go one better than his 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He is best fresh and has struggled to build upon his efforts first time out in the past, consequently I can't be having him and 4/1 doesn't represent any value anyway. Unioniste comes into the race very unexposed having won a novice chase at Aintree, before being out classed here last month behind Dynaste. He is on a potentially attractive handicap mark on his handicap debut and should handle the ground having won on heavy in France. His age worries me as a 4 year old may find the hustle and bustle of a competitive handicap unnerving. Also the jockey booking of Harry Derham, whose claim of 5lb is very useful, is a bit of a worry as I would prefer a jockey with more experience in a race such as this. Ruby Walsh partners Cristal Bonus whose winning seasonal reappearance at Down Royal was impressive and he loves the soft. As a novice chaser last year he ranked highly, running very well to finish 2nd to Menorah at Aintree after not being right at the festival, he is very highly rated at home. 157 is high mark to be winning this though, however siding against second season chasers this year hasn't been advisable. Has strong claims. Notus De La Tour takes my vote as a progressive horse who has been on my radar for some time. I have no qualms about him going in the ground as he is a French bred, who also ran creditably in Ireland last term in testing conditions. There is hopefully improvement to come and I would hope he is a bit better than his current mark of 144. 7/1 is probably a bit short on reflection of his chance though, I am on ante-post at 10/1. Nadiya De La Vega won here in October and was raised to 145, she ran to that mark in the Paddy Power too but probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race. Quantitativeeasing has a win and two 2nds to his name at the track but still looks held in the handicappers hands, much like Astracad and Renard, although the former stepping up in trip could bring out some improvement. I think Tatenen is best going right handed and doesn't have a great Cheltenham record, whilst Wishfull Thinking has been a ridiculously annoying horse to follow, carrying top weight will be tricky and I'm not convinced how well the Hobbs horses are running at the moment. Michael Flips has been a little disappointing so far this season, he hasn't recaptured the form that saw him run 4th in last years Jewson. Tartak is gradually slipping down the handicap the whole time and his day will come, whether it is here I don't know, but he may be worth a little wager each-way at 20/1.

Advice - Notus De La Tour - 10/1 Ante-Post. 
Tartak - 0.5pt EW - @22/1 Coral

3:05 - Stan James International Hurdle

Grandouet (Centre) - If he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he should go close

This is a match of up between 3 horses and choosing the winner has become increasingly difficult with the ground turning testing. Reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby has been slightly overlooked for this as his victory in March has been rendered a bit of a fluke. I personally think that the win was much better than people are giving it credit. Noel Fehily knew his horse stayed 2 and a half miles so was prominent and kicked for home coming off the home bend, but he wasn't being caught on the line, I wouldn't say he 'slipped the field' either. It could be argued it was poor jockeyship from those behind, I think there is an element of that certainly, but that isn't solely responsible. I will stick my neck on the line and say Rock On Ruby was a decent winner of the Champion Hurdle. He won by 4 lengths, that margin wasn't diminishing close home. The fact the rest of the field didn't get to fellow front runner Overturn either is the counter-argument, they were 2 lengths off him, but 6 lengths off Rock On Ruby! On that basis I can't see how he isn't favourite for this. We know he stays 2 and a half and that will be to his advantage tomorrow on ground that will make it more of a stamina test. He is currently 2/1, there is a bit of value in that price. Zarkandar is far too short for me at 5/4. Admittedly he wasn't right last year and still ran a staying on fifth in the Champion Hurdle after winning the Betfair, before falling at Aintree. His reappearance win at Wincanton was very taking considering he was giving away 17lb to the second, he also showed excellent battling qualities. The run he has under his belt will assist and he will be 100% fit for this, which is a bonus on the testing ground. The 4lb he receives off the other big players in the market will assist and the bigger emphasis on 'stamina' the new course requires will be right up his street, I still think he is best over 2 and a half. However, at the prices he's best left alone. One of the forgotten horses this year is Grandouet. Before injury struck he was my fancy for this Champion Hurdle having one this race last year, in the process getting rid of any doubts he wouldn't get up the Prestbury Park hill. A long absence of just over a year isn't ideal and the energy sapping ground will bring any lack of fitness to the fore, however Nicky Henderson is the master at bringing horses back from a break to win first time out. Hopefully he retains all old ability and if he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he will be hard to beat. At the prices, 5/2 is the best value in the race to me.

Advice - Grandouet - 3pt Win @5/2 Paddy Power

Other horses of interest tomorrow:
Aerial
Vasco Du Ronceray
Ikorodu Road E/W
Easter Meteor

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

10/11/2012 Super Saturday Selections

Wincanton:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - Mr Mole 1/3 N/B

I think this horse should be able to defy his 6 pound penalty. Although I'm not going anywhere near him at that price. This race does look quite open. I don't know much of the opposition, consequently I would be looking for horses with the top trainers to provide the biggest threat. The in form Alan King saddles Jojabean, his form is ok but nothing special. Another in form trainer is Colin Tizzard, he runs Kings Lad who is a course winner and has come up against some nice types. He looks a better bet than Jojabean and the newcomer from the Hobbs stable Kap Gun.

Tante Sissi (Yellow Cap) -  She Recieves Weight And Should Go Close If She's Improved 

1:40 - Mares Handicap Hurdle

Selection - Tante Sissi 4/1
I have backed Tante Sissi at 5/1. Alan King has stated in his 'Weekender' column that this mare is one he's really looking forward to this weekend. She was workmanlike in victory at Newbury on 'Greatwood' day in a Mares Hurdle when she had Miss Milborne behind, who she has a 2lb pull at the weights with today. That was probably her season done there and then and I think her at Cheltenham in April  where she ran below par was 1 to many. The King stable are in good form and she is only 5 so I hope she will have improved over the summer. Violin Davies sets the standard and is probably the most likely winner on the back of her success over Kentford Grey Lady at Ascot, but I think she will struggle to concede 8 lb to my horse. A threat could be the unexposed Lucy Wadham trained All Annalena, she's been on the go on the flat during the summer so she should be fit for this. Her form doesn't jump out at you but I think she could improve as a second season hurdler this year.

2:15 - Rising Stars Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night 6/1
You readers will know I fancied him for the 2 1/2 novice chase won by Carlito Brigante at Cheltenham last month, he jumped nicely albeit a bit right handed. Consequently I think going right handed today will assist him, also I can't help but feel Noel Fehily wasn't all that serious with him and never quite put the gun to his head. Hopefully, he can build on that performance and be a serious contender in this contest. The better the ground, the better he goes so hopefully the rain stays away, although it appears it's going to rain through the night in Wincanton. However, I will take the punt at the prices. 6/1 is better value to me than 7/4 or 2/1 about Poungach, backing Paul Nicholls novice chasers isn't the worst idea because you can almost guarantee they will jump superbly. Although this horse didn't get very far on his debut, it was a bit unlucky and he is obviously fancied to go well here. Based on hurdles form he and King Of The Night, rated 155 and 157 respectively, should have the race between them. Aegean Dawn and Court In Motion are very good horses and it's brilliant to have them back from injury, although I'm not a man to who likes backing horses coming from a lay off, I think their best watched. Houblon Des Obeaux was quite impressive on his chase debut at Worcester where he jumped and travelled well, that was 3 miles and all his form over hurdles is at 3 miles too, I think he may get outpaced today on a flat track over a trip on that is on the sharp side.

Zarkandar (Centre)

2:50 - Elite Hurdle
Selection - Balder Succes 3/1
Balder Succes just strikes me as a real improver this year. He may not be the best horse in the race and he will have to improve to compete here, but I'm optimistic he has. The trip and ground should be fine although he would probably prefer a bit more dig in the ground, but the rain is due to arrive. In relation to Zarkandar, I think he's the most likely winner. He is still a bit of an unknown quantity and Paul Nicholls has had a clear run with him this autumn, consequently he thinks he has him right this year. On all given form, he should laugh at these. However, the 2 mile rip is probably slightly shorter than ideal. He was staying on in the Champion Hurdle having been done for a bit of toe coming down the hill, I worry this may happen again tomorrow on a flat track. He has to concede a lot of weight today, this worries me when he's against horses who are on the upgrade. If he gets bigger than 3/1 than I think I may be changing my mind on my selection though, he deserves to be shorter and at least favourite in my opinion. Daryl Jacob retains a partnership that has been relatively successful while Ruby sides with Prospect Wells, who may also prefer an extra half mile but it will be interesting to see how he has improved over the summer. I don't think he would have to improve that much to be close to Zarkandar considering he receives 17lbs off him today, his novice hurdle form was pretty good but I worry he may get outpaced like his stable mate. I don't believe Local Hero or any of the rest are good enough, it's between the above 3 and at the current prices, I will side with the Alan King horse.

Diamond Harry - I'm Praying It's A Going Day!

3:25 - Badger Ales Trophy
Selection - Diamond Harry 7/1
I wouldn't walk into many of these to be honest. Why they can't win: Golden Chieftain is going to struggle after his 15lb rise from Worcester, surely Tizzard has messed up by running him in that race? He would be a shoe in off 127, although I think he may need a stiff track ideally. I see no reason why Zarrafakt can't win. Emma Lavelle has just started to hit form and this horse was a solid handicap chaser last term. His run at the Festival was disappointing though, I fear that a mark of 142 may be a tad too high. The Package has had support in the market and goes well fresh, I'm worried he may get swept off his feet round this flat track, the same can be said for West End Rocker. I feel the ground will be too soft for Aimigayle. Ballyallia Man could go close if he improves for his summer excursions, he had a nice spin round Chepstow to sharpen him up last month and he could be thrown in off 10 stone. It's a bonus that Tom George is coming into form too. Michel Le Bon has been trained for this and Paul Nicholls has an unbelievable record in the contest, his solitary novice chase win has worked out well when he had Pettifour, Bench Warrent and Cannington Brook behind him that day. He has decent form and has a lot in his favour today, he ranks just behind Diamond Harry who is known to go well first time out. He is immensely talented on his day and is now back to a mark of 150, he won the Hennessy off 156. Nick Williams will have him fit and is in decent form, booking of top jocky Noel Fehily is a good sign too. If he can recapture his old form he must go well against horses he would laugh at on his day.