The Open Meeting Exclusive - Friday Selections

1:15 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay

Dynaste - Looks The best Alternative To Fingal Bay

This looks a really hot race, you will see many of these come the Festival in March. I have sided with Fingal Bay (Fingal Bay - 10 To Follow) because I feel he is the best horse in the race, he has been described by Phillip Hobbs as 'Phenomenal'. His chasing debut victory at Chepstow was easy enough without being flashy, but he's not that type of horse, he does what is required but nothing more. Hobbs has been public in saying he shows nothing at home but saves his best for the track. I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles will be absolutely perfect and with some chasing experience in the locker, I expect him to win. It cannot be forgotten he is the only horse to beat Simonsig under rules, and although the grey had excuses, I thought he beat him pretty fair and square. In terms of betting, if he's anything shorter than even money I will be staying away, there's too many other really talented horses in the field for him to justify that price in my opinion. If even money about Fingal Bay fails to materialise, Dynaste is my second preference (Dynaste - Novice Chase Insight). The grey was rated 161 over hurdles and David Pipe has said he's been schooling well at home. He has course form under his belt when he was 2nd in the Cleeve Hurdle last year and 2nd to Aegean Dawn at this meeting 2 years ago. In between those efforts he gave Big Bucks a scare at Ascot in the Longwalk Hurdle. Unioniste won on his British debut for Paul Nicholls at Aintree 3 weeks ago, he receives a 4 year olds weight allowance here. This is a big step up in class and he will need to build on that performance, but as we know the French breds tend to peak at a younger age and a Paul Nicholls novice chaser is always respected. In conclusion, I think Fingal Bay will win but in terms of which horse I will be backing, it's very dependent on price.

1:50 - 2 Miles. Paddypower.com Handicap Chase
Selection - Free World E/W

Free World Will Appreciate The Better Ground

I know this is a bit of a random one, but I think the race looks very open and I am struggling to find a winner. Owned by Clive Smith, Free World was rated as highly as 153 over fences when trained in England by Paul Nicholls. Transferred to Ireland in the summer of 2011, his handicap mark has steadily been falling to the 134 he finds himself off here. His form figures don't read too well, but I think he is a good ground horse who doesn't like it worse than good to soft. I don't really understand why he went to Ireland where the ground is always worse, but back on decent ground in last years Grand Annual he was running a much better race until coming down 4 out. I thought he was travelling pretty well and was just starting to make his move when he met the 4th last all wrong, he was 25/1 that day and I fancy you may get a decent price here. I think he is an ok each way bet when I feel many of his rivals have question marks over their heads. Kid Cassidy needs to learn to settle He has had a hard life and it shows because he looks like a worrier whose not keen on hustle and bustle, consequently he's kept out of the way at the rear of the field. He is obviously immensely talented, but looks difficult to win with and I can't be having him. The market will be telling of his chance. Astracad could potentially be an improver this year after a decent novice chase campaign last year. He was down the field in the Grand Annual but ran ok in the Aintree equivalent the following month. He ran off 145 in those two races and on the back of the Aintree run he has a squeak if he's improved for the summer, his consistency is admirable. However, the Aintree race was much weaker than the Grand Annual and 145 does look harsh. Consigliere has a poor first time out record and still looks plenty high enough in the handicap.

2:25 - 2 Miles. Sharp Novices Hurdle
Selection - Dodging Bullets

Dodging Bullets (Green Sleeves) - He Has Experience To Fall Back On

Dodging Bullets got his career on track when losing his maiden tag at Cheltenham last month. Although he ran in snatches, he was well on top at the end and will appreciate a faster run race. The run will have brought him on and was a nice starting point to follow on from a successful juvenile campaign last year, it should have put him spot on for this race. He was travelling very strongly in the Triumph as they turned for home but maybe didn't quite stay up the hill, although he was only beat 4 lengths. I would say he ranked highly as a juvenile last year and retaining his novice status this year is a huge plus. He has the experience that some of his rivals may lack in this race and I expect him to capitalise on it. Whether he's more talented than his rivals is unknown, the beauty of the race is they are all unexposed, but he will have more street sense, I expect him to use this to his advantage. Court Minstrel won well at Cheltenham last month quickening nicely to score by 4 lengths. He proved he was a smart bumper horse last year, 9 lengths separated him and My Tent Or Yours in the Grade 2 contest at Aintree and there may not much between them again here. I see no reason why he can't make the step up here but I wonder if that was 'his day' last month. Previous winners of the maiden hurdle he won last month include: Court In Session, King Of The Night and The Jigsaw Man. It would be fair to say that none of those have progressed to be top class. When you compare Court Minstrel to Dodging Bullets, I feel he may be a notch below him. However, in terms of betting, if 3/1 or bigger materialises about Court Minstrel I feel he is worth the punt to make the step up in class. Tominator was impressive last time out and ran well in the Ces, but I feel he may need further than 2 miles.

My selections for the day:
1:15 - Fingal Bay
1:50 - Free World E/W
2:25 - Dodging Bullets
3:00 - Deutschland
3:35 - Titan De Sarti
4:05 - Pentiffic

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown

THE REVIEW 13/10/2012 - Super Saturday Selections

On a day where my 7 selections yielded 4 winners, 1 second and 2 unplaced, you would of thought I may have more money in my pocket now than I did at this time yesterday? Your'e incorrect. I hope you readers wallets are fatter than mine right now!

Reckless Abandon - Win 9/4
Clive Cox's colt was extremely brave in victory to claim the Middle Park Stakes. I was a bit worried when he was extremely keen when going down to post, but he is a quirky individual and this sort of behaviour doesn't seem to hinder him. Top jockey Gerald Mosse gave him a great ride, his shrewd tactical move to break quickly and get over to the rail from his wide draw effectively won him the race. I'm so happy Reckless Abandon's normal jockey Adam Kirby decided to jump off him and hop onto second placed finisher Moohaajm, would rather have Mosse on board any day of the week - he's class! Talk about a tilt at the 2000 Guineas next spring is absurd in my opinion. He has bags of speed, so why blunt that weapon by stepping him up in distance? He is a sprinter, no arguments. Last words on the race, unlucky Adam Kirby!!!

Dawn Approach

Dawn Approach - Win 2/5
Easiest race to watch all day. Never had any worries from start to finish. He's not the most flashy, but he's impressive in his own way. He was 6-1 ante-post with Paddy Power for the 2000 Guineas next year before the race, to my amazement he is now 7-2! I don't think that's a great ante-post bet. There are other 2 year olds who have also caught my eye this year, it looks a talented crop and there is plenty of maturing to be done between now and next May. I'm very sweet on last weeks Longchamp victor Olympic Glory. He appears to be the best of Richard Hannon's many talented 2 year olds and represents much better value at 16/1 than Dawn Approach at 7-2. However, I think Dawn Approach is a very serious prospect for next season and could well justify his 7-2 price next May. The fact he is never visually impressive is probably influencing my argument but I see no reason why he couldn't emulate his Dad (New Approach) by becoming the top 3 year old colt next year.

Countrywide Flame

Countrywide Flame - Second 7/1
I am still annoyed by this race. I think he was a tad unlucky in defeat but I cannot fault the horse, he was very brave in defeat. He was given a super ride by Jimmy Quinn who at 2 furlong pole had given the gelding every chance of victory. He just couldn't get passed Kieren Fallon and Aaim To Prosper who you have to give credit to, the first horse to win the Cesarewitch twice is some feat! I think Countrywide Flame was hindered by the winner hanging into him in the last 2 furlongs, it was a major factor in explaining why he couldn't get passed him. When the front one straightened up my lad was running on again to only be beaten 1/2 length. If he had a fair run at it the placing would have surely been reversed. In fairness to Fallon he had his whip in the correct hand so you can't fault his jockeyship, it's just very frustrating. I'm going to stop talking about this now as I can feel the steam starting to gather in my ears.

Fingal Bay - Win 4/6
I said he was value at even money and I still think he was value at 4/6. He jumped impeccably and won a very cosy length. Although the race wasn't much of a contest after Poungach fell at the first, Richard Johnson seemed comfortable the whole way round and was more than happy to lob along in front. He idled in front and the threat from Tiger O'Toole was never a serious one, but don't underestimate the runner-up, he was rated 137 over hurdles. All in all, a good start and a nice way to blow away the cob webs. His next target will be a novice chase at Wincanton or at the Open Meeting next month.

Hinterland

Hinterland - Win 11/8
The easiest winner of the day! He was very impressive and one of the smoothest successes you will see all year. Those of you who read my blog about Hinterland  ( My Hinterland Blog can be found at : http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/a-season-of-promise-for-hinterland.html.) will know I thought this horse was a fantastic jumper and he proved me right today, he was as slick as you like. He will make a cracking novice chaser later in the year. I also tipped Red Riverman from the Twiston Davies yard each way at 33/1, he ran on to finish second but he wasn't carrying my money - bollocks I got a 100% return on the Hinterland win but could have had over 700% return on Twisty`s gelding ! I will gain some compensation if he was carrying yours though! Feel free to contact me through twitter if this is the case, I'm sure you'll love basking in my failures :)!

Ulis De Vassey - Unplaced 11/2
I was quids in if this horse had come home in front, unfortunately it was not to be. I didn't know much about the horse and took the punt because he was at the bottom of the handicap and unexposed. I suggested in my blog that previous winners in the race were very lightly weighted, I obviously picked the wrong one. The winner, Kitegen, carried 10-8. Oh well. When you back an unexposed horse they either normally make the shake up or are tailed off like Ulis De Vassy was here. That's the punt you take, we move on!

Golden Chieftain - 10/1 Unplaced
I really really fancied this horse! Everything about it smelt right, having backed the horse on Friday afternoon at 10/1, when I looked at the prices this morning to see the Tizzard horse at 4/1 I thought I was onto something. It was an odd race. He hit a fence badly halfway down the back on their last circuit and lost his place as a result. Joe Tizzard appeared to give him an easy time afterwards, he ran on in the end to finish 5th staying on past tired horses.  It was an eye-catching run in that it felt like a prep run for a future race? I think so, perhaps the Welsh National. Watch this one closely!

Other horses on the day that I took note of were: Handazan, Regal Encore, Far West and Rigidity.

Rigidity

The Tim Vaughan trained Rigidity ran an eye-catching race yesterday in a 2 mile novice chase at Hexham. He is one of my 10 really dark horses to follow this year and it was decent effort on ground that was far from ideal. Although it was very heavy, he finished 5th and jumped pretty nicely. I think it was a nice sighter for him and there is more to come in the future.

suggested Handazan was a 'sit and watch' horse and that ended up being the case. He was very novicy at his hurdles and appears to lack experience, I suspect the run will have done him the world of good. Give him time because he may progress with more experience to be quite smart. My thoughts on Handazan can be found at  http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html.

Handazan's conqueror, Far West from the Paul Nicholls stable, looked to be very smart too. The soft ground at Chepstow seemed to be to his liking as his action would suggest that he prefers some cut in the ground. His previous experience over hurdles was obviously to his benefit. Where Handazan's jumping was scratchy, this horse was foot perfect and he simply  'out-jumped' the Alan King trained colt. Far West looks like he may progress into a really smart horse and you would expect him to compete in top quality novice hurdles later in the year. He excites me.

Anthony Honeyball - Can Regal Encore Put Him On The Map?

If anyone missed the bumper at Chepstow, you missed out big time! The Anthony Honeyball trained Regal Encore absolutely hacked up. Jesus! He was mightily impressive. Recently purchased by JP Mcmanus, the mount of AP McCoy was simply far far far too good for his rivals. Rebecca Curtis ran Amifunnyyet in the race which she interestingly rates as one of the best horses she's ever had, whilst Paul Nicholls was represented by Mcllhatton in what was a relatively hot bumper. The winner looks something extra special though and has the potential to be one of the best bumper horses around this year. His next target may be the bumper at the Open Meeting as Honeyball wants to test the gelding in better company, looking further ahead he will be aimed at the championship bumpers in the spring. I think it's brilliant that a small trainer like Anthony Honeyball has a horse of this calibre in their yard, it's also brilliant the horse is owned by a big owner, it can only be good for racing. Regal Encore may be the horse to put Anthony Honeyball on the map, after today you would suggest he will! If you haven't seen the race, you need to get onto the Attheraces website and have a watch!! Immediately.

Any comments or views? Contact me through twitter: @JoshRWDown

13/10/12 Super Saturday Selections

Newmarket:

2:20 - Middle Park
Selection - Reckless Abandon (pictured above)
I have backed him at 2-1 and the weight of my money has already contracted the price to15-8! G Mosse comes over from France to retain the ride and gets on well with the horse. I know the Marco Botti camp are sweet on the chance of Moojaahim and feel there is improvement to come from the Prix Morny. Although he didn't get the run of the race in the Prix Morny, whereas Reckless Abandon did, I still think Clive Cox's colt would of had his measure and I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow. If Reckless Abandon was a Godolphin or Ballydoyle horse he would surely be shorter than 15-8 and I think on merit he deserves to be a shorter price than he is.

2:55 - Dewhurst
Selection - Dawn Approach
The best 2 year colt this term, he looks to cement himself as the top European 2 year colt tomorrow. His sire New Approach produces sperm in the shape of the £ sign and it appears his offspring are carrying the chromosomes which have won the derby in 2008. He will be very difficult to beat tomorrow, I have no worries about him handling the ground tomorrow as his sire won on soft.

3:35 - Cesarewitch
Selection -  Countrywide Flame (pictured above)
Fits most of the trends. An example of a few are: Drawn in stall 7, 7/10 winners drawn in stall 12 or below. Carries 8-5, 7/10 carried below 9-1. Won over 2 miles, 10/10 won over at least 1m 6f. 2006 Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City followed that up with a win in the Cesarewitch for a famous double, this horse looks to replicate that feat this year. He will handle the ground and he is a certainty to stay. Carrying 8-5 is an absolute steal and he is pricewises ante-post tip, I expect a bold show.

Chepstow:

1:55 - Juvenile Hurdle
Selection - Handazan
Those of you who read my blog yesterday will know how highly Alan King rates this horse. He is unraced over hurdles, but the ground is a concern. He would prefer it with less juice but he has won on heavy on the flat. He is probably a 'sit and watch' horse tomorrow, but he should be race fit having been on the go through the summer for John Oxx. Please revert to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html for further details.

3:00 - 2 mile 3 furlong Novice Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay (pictured above)
One of my horses to follow for the coming season. I think he will rank very highly in the pecking order of staying novice chasers this term and this looks like a nice starting point. I expect him to be too good for his rivals tomorrow. The ground will be perfect and although the trip may be a bit on the short side, it will take some getting around Chepstow tomorrow and a stamina test should be right up this fella's street. I don't understand why he's not odds on? If England were value at 1/100 against San Marino tonight, then this horse is definitely value at even money.

3:40 - 2 mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Hinterland (pictured above)
Prep run before a novice chase campaign later on in the season. Paul Nicholls must think he is still on a winnable mark off 141 and the trainer has a brilliant record in the race. He obviously targets this race as an early season money spinner. Classy animals such as Domtaline, Escort'men and Gwanako have all won this race for team Ditcheat. Although he has to give almost a stone to the rest of the field, he still should be too classy for the others. I think the main danger will be the Donald McCain horse, but at a massive price I think the Twiston-Davies horse Red Riverman could have an each way chance. He receives 24 pounds from Hinterland. Sneaking in the bottom end off 10-4 he could still be unexposed and his trainer is red hot at the moment!

4:10 - 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ulis De Vassey
Winner on heavy at Bangor. Very unexposed 4 year old who receives weight all around running off 10-4. Sneaking in at the bottom end off a mark of 112, I'm willing to take a punt on this Nick Williams runner. Last 5 winners all carried below 11-2 and were all aged 4 or 5. Can't say much more because I don't know much about the horse to be honest! lol. I think the main danger may come from Carrigmorna King. He brings the best from into the race when he was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund Final at Sandown.

4:45 - 3 mile Handicap Chase
Selection - Golden Chieftain
Winner on soft and will appreciate the stamina test. Was rated 140 over hurdles and could still be well in over fences off a mark of 129. Last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less and were aged 6-8. Golden Chieftain carries 10-13 and is aged 7, he doesn't quite fit the trend but isn't far away and is still relatively unexposed. As for the others, Le Beau Bai has a superb Chepstow record and will love the ground, but the trip may be on the sharp side and I doubt he will be fully tuned up for this race on his reappearance. I fear Rangitoto the most as he is the other unexposed horse in the race and Paul Nicholls is bang in form. The Twiston-Davies yard are also in good form and saddle Cootehill , but I think he's in the hands of the handicapper off a mark of 137 and the unexposed horses should have his measure.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through twitter: 

@JoshRWDown

The Horse Racing Blog Jumpers Ten To Follow 2012/2013

1. Big Bucks

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=658928#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

How could I leave him out? Without doubt the greatest staying hurdler there has ever been. Although his victories are never by margins that stick in the memory, he looked as good as ever in the spring when claiming the World Hurdle at Cheltenham and then the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree. It is hard to argue that he won't win the 2013 renewals next year. With potential high class staying novice hurdlers from 2012 such as Fingal Bay and Boston Bob probably heading novice chasing next year, there seems to be little new competition that may be a threat to Big bucks when he looks to extend his 17 race winning streak. At the age of 10 when the World Hurdle comes around in 2013, some may say he is heading into the latter stages of his career. However, I doubt this will be too much of a hindrance to the gelding and I would expect him to still be plenty strong enough to claim a 5th World Hurdle and subsequently a 5th Liverpool Hurdle next Spring. This should be in addition to winning the: Newbury Hurdle on Hennessy day, the Longwalk Hurdle and potentially the Cleeve Hurdle on Festival trials day in January. I assume 2013 will be another year when he truly cements his dominance on the 3 mile hurdle division.

2. Sprinter Sacre

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=750129#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

The most exciting novice chaser I can recall in my relatively short horse racing following. Unbeaten over fences, this alpha-male of a horse defeated his rivals in a manner that can only be described as 'spanked'. The resident of Seven Barrows stables is a 2-1 ante-post favourite for next years 2 mile Queen Mother Champion Chase and in my eyes, rightly so. Described as an 'aeroplane' last year, his jockey Barry Geraghty was certainly a 'pilot' in the geldings victories effectively just doing the steering. The rest was left to Sprinter Sacre , and jeez he delivered! The highlights of his novice campaign were taking the Arkle Trophy at the Festival in March and following up this with the Maghull Novice Chase at Aintree. Both looking what my mate would describe as 'The Badgers Nadgers'. Being a new-comer to the championship 2 mile chase division places an element of doubt that inexperience could be his undoing. However, the competition he will face is either ageing in the case of Sizing Europe or quite frankly not good enough in the case Gauvain. His stable mate and last years winner of the Queen Mother Finians Rainbow also looks like being stepped up in trip for a crack at the King George. Consequently, I don't consider his level of inexperience to be a problem. Look at the way he demolished the 2 mile seasoned chasers in the Game Spirit at Newbury in February for example. The only thing that can surely beat Sprinter Sacre, is Sprinter Sacre. This horse is a banker.

3. Sir Des Champs

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=753565#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Long thought as a future Gold Cup horse by his trainer Willie Mullins, this Gigginstown owned gelding is already ante-post favourite for the 2013 renewal at 6-1. 2012 was a progressive year for Sir Des Champs. Starting off in relatively serene surroundings at Fairyhouse, two more novice chase wins followed before the highlight of his season came when winning the 2m 5f Jewson Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He powered away up the hill from Champion Court that day like a really good horse. I distinctively remember Dad backing him at 14-1 ante-post which bought the family a nice Chinese that evening. The peking duck was yummy as ever! What made it even more tasty was that I had a little dabble on the Irish raider too! Looking forward to this year, I expect to see Sir Des Champs putting up bold displays in the championship 3 mile chases across the Irish Sea. I feel his main quality his the ability to stay and jump in a manner that doesn't exert too much energy. This could be crucial if he is to challenge for the Gold Cup in March as there are many rivals who will be around to pick up the pieces. These horses could be Bobs Worth, Long Run or The Giant Bolster. For those of you who have noticed I haven't included Flemenstar in this summary, to be honest with you, I was torn to choose between him and Sir Des Champs. I sided with the latter due to feeling he will get every yard of the 3 mile trips he will be covering this year whilst Flemenstar hasn't gone beyond 2m 4f in his career as of yet. I feel Sir Des Champs will out-stay Flemenstar. Simple as that. Although I have very little confidence behind this theory. Nonetheless, my gut instinct tells me that Sir Des Champs will fund many more takeaways this winter in the Down household!

4. Hurricane Fly

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=663874#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

This entrant at no.4 doesn't need much of an introduction. The apple of his trainer Willie Mullins eye, his constant reiteration of the brilliance his stable star is capable of was vindicated in the 2011  Champion Hurdle and more recently in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The latter performance was rated as 'his best ever' by Mullins and it seemed, on that form, the defence of his crown at the Festival was a formality. It obviously wasn't with the 8 year old finishing 3rd. He then reappeared at the Punchestown Festival to defend his Rabobank Champion Hurdle where he won in a style that was similar to his run in the Champion Hurdle. I'm not sure whether he was quite himself last spring, I going to attribute that to his brilliant win in the Irish Champion Hurdle taking more out of him than first thought. I am more than willing to give him another chance and I have no doubt there isn't a horse than can live with him in 2 mile hurdles when he his on top form. I don't consider last years Supreme Novice to be the best we've seen and if that judgement proves to be correct then something like Cinders And Ashes surely can't be good enough to get the better of the Fly. Lets just hope horses racing equivalent of Ledley King arrives fit and healthy at all his intended targets!

5. Simonsig:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=756250#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Cemented himself as the top novice hurdler over 2m 4f last term with two devastating victories at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. Nicky Henderson believes a drop back in trip would suit rather than a step up, as he feels Simonsig has a lot of natural speed which would be best utilised over the shorter 2 mile trip. His high cruising speed should assist him over 2 miles and help his jockey Barry Geraghty get his rivals off the bridle. Also his natural scope would also suggest that jumping a fence should not be an issue, in fact Henderson said the reason he ran over 2m 4f last term was to help his jumping as hurdles seemed to just 'get in the way'. Simonsig is definitely a horse for the ten to follow and is ante-post favourite for the Arkle at 3-1. This short price would suggest there is a lot of confidence behind the grey. I expect to see him competing in the top class novice chases this year and he is in my ten to follow principally as my ante-post selection for the Arkle in 2013.

6. Fingal Bay:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=776899#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Campaigned at staying novice hurdles last year. Fingal Bay could not be faulted only losing in the Sefton at Aintree (prefers softer ground and interfered by fallen horse were adequate excuses) whilst also racking up wins in the Challow hurdle and at The Open Meeting. He is almost certain to be stepped-up to 3 miles which would suggest that either the RSA or the World Hurdle are potentially his main targets. To win those races the main characteristic that a horse requires, in such a grueling contest is to stay. In my opinion this is Fingal Bay's greatest attribute. An issue may be whether he goes novice chasing this year or delay the inevitable until 2013/2014. The dilemma Philip Hobbs faces is whether to take on Big Bucks (the greatest of them all!) in the World Hurdle and give the horse another year to mature and gain experience. Or whether to take a chance this year but then possibly leave the horse with less experience when he takes on the big boys in the high class staying chases the following year? In my view this horse is a top quality animal and will almost certainly be seen in Gold Cups of the future. The gelding is 10-1 ante-post favourite for the RSA and he is my likely winner of the race. An element of doubt about whether he will go novice chasing and a liking for some cut in the ground which has not been present at the Cheltenham Festival in recent times would worry me though. However, I feel he is a gamble worth taking as I feel he is top top class. When a trainer describes one of their horses as 'phenomenal' like Phillips Hobbs has, you take note and listen.

7. Hunt Ball:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=736164#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

The story of the 2011/2012 season, there isn't a lot I can say about Hunt Ball that hasn't already been said. The Anthony Knott owned gelding rose an astonishing 88 pounds in the weights last term, that's over 6 stone!  I know some may argue that he can't improve much more and to be honest I agree with you. He proved he can compete with the top class 3 mile chasers at Aintree and he definitely appeared to stay. I think he is a horse who will relish a stamina test this year. He is in my ten to follow as my ante-post selection for the Hennessy at Newbury in November and then if things go well, he may well go to the Gold Cup. I hope this horse can collect the bonus points on offer for these races. I feel he meets a few trends the Hennessy has created. Apart from the fact the race seems a logical place for the 7 year old start his campaign. The fact he is 7 is to his advantage, 5 winners in the last 10 years being aged 7. Also 6 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 142-158, Hunt Ball currently has a rating of 157. I think there is potential the handicapper hasn't got him quite yet. He is at least as good as, or better than, Medermit and Burton Port for example. They are rated 167 and 166 respectively. I still think he may be a few pounds to the good! Is the dream still on for the 2013 Gold Cup? Could we have another winners enclosure classic like last year? If his enigmatic owner Anthony Knott (pictured above riding his horse back into the winners enclosure with jockey Nick Schofield at Wincanton) is around  you can almost guarantee we will. 'B****r the cows!' Comment of the year.

8. Rebel Fitz

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=751233#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

It is always questionable where the Galway Hurdle winner will venture after their success in the summer and more importantly, whether they will have any more success in the coming winter. Looking at previous winners such as Moon Dice and Oslot, the Galway Hurdle race win has been their last due to their rise in the weights. Consequently, like Oslot, Moon Dice may have to head novice chasing in search of races where he can still be competitive. But, and this a big but, this years winner in Rebel Fitz looks to be something a bit special. The gelding turned up at Cork later in August this year in another handicap hurdle, where at a starting price of 4-11 favourite, he promptly swept aside solid handicappers such as Sailors Warn and Fosters Cross. The starting price told you the story, they knew! From the relatively unknown yard of Michael Winters, Rebel Fitz has progressed to a rating of 155. If you look at the ratings he is much higher in the weights than Moon Dice was after his Galway hurdle win, however I think this gelding may well be a bit better than a handicapper such as Moon Dice. In my opinion this horse has so much progression to come that he could be a championship racehorse. Don't be surprised if you see this animal appear in the Champion Hurdle next year. It may sound a bit optimistic but there's something that stinks about this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if he's still well in off a mark of 155.

9. Salut Flo

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=727318#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

I may be criticised for thinking through my heart rather than my head here, whereby the 33-1 I missed ante-post for the Byrne Group Plate at the festival is still haunting me. I have put him in my ten to follow principally for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November where I think he has a fantastic chance. Winning the 2m 5f contest would provide me with some of those precious maximum 25 bonus points. For those of you who want to hear why I think the gelding has a real chance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup please refer to my post 'The Paddy Power Gold Cup Winner' (http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/the-2012-paddy-power-gold-cup-winner.html). If you haven't already done so. The plan is to substitute this horse after the December Gold Cup race at Cheltenham. Will handicap mark will have rocketed skywards following two victories! I will be replacing him with Finian's Rainbow when his main target the King George comes around on Boxing Day.

10. Boston Bob

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=750839#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

My judgement of Boston Bob is much the same as the majorities. I believe he was the best novice hurdler in Ireland last year and his defeat in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival came as a bit of a shock. He was the centrepiece of my Union Jack bet that day, although his defeat didn't cost me too much money as I didn't have the best of Gold Cup days. The fact he was my centrepiece displayed I thought he had a great chance. He just seemed to run a bit 'flat', he ran well but not quite as well as we know he can. His performance was similar to Hurricane Fly's run in the Champion Hurdle, just not quite 100%. Coincidently, they both won on that day at Leopardstown when conditions were horrendous. Boston Bob probably had more of a slog than was first thought and I think it may have taken quite a lot out of him. He was expected to move onto Punchestown after Cheltenham where he would get his novice hurdle campaign back on track, but he was not entered. His trainer Willie Mullins' explanation was that he thought Boston Bob had done enough for the year. I interpreted this as something was not quite right and whatever it was that meant he wasn't 100% at Cheltenham was still present later on in the spring. I think the plan is to go novice chasing this winter. He will almost certainly be aimed at the RSA and other staying novice chases in Ireland. I would imagine jumping a fence will not be a problem as he was athletic over his hurdles and he has the scope to jump a fence. He showed he stays last year when he and the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze out-stayed their rivals in the Albert Bartlett in March. I expect many bold displays from Boston Bob this year. However if things don't go to plan I would imagine I will substitute this horse with a staying chaser with the 'National' races coming around later in the season.

A Novice Chase Insight

As always September triggers the start of the national hunt season speculation.

Who will be champion trainer? 

What will be the winning margin of AP McCoy's jockeys title this year? 

Can last years novices compete with the proven big players?

Perhaps the most exciting aspect of a new season is what horses will be making the transition from hurdling to chasing in the coming year? Every year an exciting crop of talented hurdlers embark on their novice season over fences and is ultimately a pivotal step for horses enabling them to write the story lines that are made by the prestigious chases over the national hunt season. 

Additionally, after witnessing potentially one of the best novice chasers ever seen last year in the form of Sprinter Sacre, who could blame me for being excited at what this years crop could contain!

Simonsig: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=756250#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Cemented himself as the top novice hurdler over 2m 4f last term with two devastating victories at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. Nicky Henderson believes a drop back in trip would suit rather than a step up as he feels Simonsig has a lot of natural speed suggesting that he is more of a speed horse than a stayer. His high cruising speed should assist him over 2 miles and help Geraghty get other horses off the bridle and his natural scope would suggest that jumping a fence should not be an issue, in fact Henderson said the reason he ran over 2m 4f last term was to help his jumping as hurdles seemed to just 'get in the way'. Simonsig is definitely a horse for the short-list and is ante-post favourite  for the Arkle, but 3-1 at the moment doesn't express any value to me when there are so many unexposed horses going novice chasing this winter.

 Fingal Bay: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=776899#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

In terms of how the form stacks up, Fingal Bay doesn't send the alarm bells ringing like Simonsig (although Fingal Bay did get the better of Simonsig at Sandown last year over 2m 4f). However, campaigned at staying novice hurdles last year, Fingal Bay could not be faulted only losing in the Sefton at Aintree (prefers softer ground and interfered by fallen horse were adequate excuses) whilst also racking up wins in the Challow hurdle and at The Open Meeting. He is almost certain to be extended up to 3miles which would suggest that the RSA is potentially the main target. To win that race the main characteristic that a horse requires in such a grueling contest is to stay, in my opinion this is Fingal Bay's greatest attribute. An issue may be whether he goes novice chasing this year or delay the inevitable until 2013/2014, the dilemma Philip Hobbs faces is whether to take on Big Bucks (the greatest of them all!!!) in the world hurdle and give the horse another year to mature and gain experience or whether to take a chance this year but then possibly leave the horse with less experience when he takes on the big boys in the high class staying chases after this year? In my view this horse is a top quality animal and will almost certainly be seen in Gold Cups of the future. 10-1 ante-post favourite for the RSA interests me more than 3-1 about Simonsig, but an element of doubt of about whether he will go novice chasing and a liking for some cut in the ground which has not been present at the Cheltenham Festival in recent times would keep my money in my pocket for the time being.

A choice from left field.........

Rocky Creek: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=775785#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

A member of Manor Farm Stables in Ditcheat, this horse started life relatively well regarded at the beginning of last year as a novice hurdler. 2nd on debut at Exeter's Haldon Gold Cup meeting beating home unknown at the time classy novice hurdlers such as Grand Vision and Lovcen, he was then put away for the deep winter before returning at Doncaster in late January where he promptly put the promising Gulllinbursti in his place with a 4 length win. High hopes were then carried into the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but a case of the coughs meant that he, like so many other Paul Nicholls runners that week, ran well below par being  beaten 27 lengths. However, putting a scratch through his last run and bearing in mind how promising his others were in conjunction with his purchase by Anthony Bromley being as a chaser, Rocky Creek has the potential to be a real improver this year and has already been flagged up by Paul Nicholls at his open day that he is probably his most exciting novice this year. I would imagine he would stick to 3 miles and aim for the RSA where he can be found at a price bigger than 25-1, but if not all goes to plan and he finds himself out of his depth the slightly lower in grade 2m 4f Jewson could be a plan B at the festival.