Champion Hurdle 2013

Champion Hurdle 2013

Day ones feature contest has a much more open feel to it this year than it did last. It's very likely Hurricane Fly will start favourite again this year having had a much better preparation than last, Willie Mullins has had a clear run with the gelding, taking his grade 1 tally to 14 in the process. Worryingly for his rivals, the last time he had a preparation like this he was an awesome winner of the contest in 2011. The credentials he brings to the table are exceptional; he jumps athletically, has a high cruising speed and has the ability to quicken at blistering speed. If he puts it all together on the day he will be extremely difficult to beat. For all the superlatives, he has disappointed before, notably here when only 3rd behind Rock On Ruby twelve months ago. I still have doubts whether the stiff nature of Cheltenham sees him at his best, additionally the form of his 2011 win hasn't worked out well, so much so it could be classified as a poor renewal. I feel there are others in the line up who are more than capable of seizing on any mishap, no horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 has regained the Champion Hurdle, consequently 6/4 doesn't represent any value.

Zarkandar has been excellently campaigned by Paul Nicholls this season. Another who has had a much smoother preparation for the contest this year, Zarkandar has taken the: Elite, International and Kingwell hurdles in a manner of a horse who has matured, appearing to fulfil the potential he displayed when scoring in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. He was never considered to be right last year, to his credit he took the Betfair Hurdle and was a staying on 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He will get every yard of the 2 miles and has the ability to lay up with the pace so the likelihood of getting outpaced like last year is less of a worry. A negative is I don't see a front runner in the race, therefore not any obvious pace, although there will never be a slowly run Champion Hurdle, this will probably go against Zarkandar, he likes to race prominently but won't want to lead, he may just give the speed horses behind a tow into the race. Also I think the old course is less likely to suit than the new course, it is more of a speed test which again isn't ideal. I can't be having him at 9/2.

Last years champion Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong since his victory twelve months ago. Without the benefit of a run he ran well for a long period in the International on ground softer than ideal, he followed that up with a fortunate win at Doncaster last time out when the ill-fated Darlan was cantering all over him. There is a argument his Champion Hurdle win was slightly fortuitous last year, having raced prominently he was never reached by those behind, the jockeyship of the beaten horses has to come into question and on that basis he doesn't deserve to be 11/2 in my opinion. I also fear the gelding has had a very stop-start season. Harry Fry has been umming and erring when to run, consistently waiting for some good ground, having many declarations throughout the year without a clear plan isn't the best of preparations. Also the lack of obvious pace in the race will probably be against him, like Zarkandar he will want to prominent but not lead and set the pace, he may just set the race up, there are too many negatives.

GRANDOUET has been my ante-post fancy since the start of the season. He missed the Festival last year through injury but his one effort this term proved he has lost none of the old talent. He reappeared in the International Hurdle in December, like Rock On Ruby he didn't have the benefit of a run, but travelled and jumped well in the bad ground, he quickened after the last but wasn't able to out-battle the match fit Zarkandar. He is an out-and-out 2 miler with pace to burn and an electric turn of foot which could see him accelerate past those up with the pace off the home turn. The main negative is he has only appeared once this year, a minor setback forced him to miss his intended engagement in the Kingwell, consequently a lack of match practice is a worry. However, at 13/2 he appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and has a lot of untapped potential. He fits the mould of the speed horse I am siding with this year.

The mercurial Binocular is something of a forgotten horse. On his day he is brilliant, so much so he would be much shorter than the 9/1 he is currently trading at, it just depends what Binocular turns up. Put a line through his reappearance, historically he has needed the run first time out and the ground was against him, consequently he wasn't given a hard time by McCoy. The 2010 champions well-being can be measured by his hurdling, when on song he is electric and the latest update from Nicky Henderson was positive, where he said the gelding was hurdling as well as ever. He can be found at 11/1 in places which represents some value, it just depends if he feels like it, plus he faces the same terrible statistic as Hurricane Fly where only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown.

Cinders And Ashes has come in for considerable support since the long-term forecast has become more positive. Better ground is key to this horse, his form in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdles this year has been poor and doesn't justify the 12/1 he is currently trading at, but it has been on soft ground so it can effectively be excused, when he got his ground last year he won a shade cosily in the Supreme. Although it is likely he has improved for another years maturity, I think he will come up short in this grade, quite simply I don't think he will be good enough.

Another who requires an end to end gallop is Countrywide Flame. I don't agree with the theory that he needs soft ground on the back of his impressive victory in the Fighting Fifth, he just coped with it best on the day. If we're being honest he didn't beat much, Cinders And Ashes hates soft ground, Trifolium ran no sort of race and Bothy simply isn't good enough in the grade. His best two performances came last Spring at Cheltenham and Aintree, both of those were on good ground. However, I do agree with the theory Cheltenhams stiff nature and uphill finish will suit John Quinns charge. On all given form he has a bit to find, since 1939 only four horses have taken the Champion Hurdle after winning the Triumph, only 2 of those were in consecutive years. I think he's got enough on his plate to win the race and I would like to see him bigger than the current 16/1 he is trading to represent any each-way value, he may be bigger on the day.

Others of note are Cotton Mill, he would be of interest as an each-way shout at 25/1, his run in the Betfair Hurdle was solid and he is bound to get every yard of the 2 miles. A return to a sounder surface will suit but with no definite target confirmed you can't back him unless you have the benefit of non-runner no bet.  Steps To Freedom won at Dundalk in taking fashion recently, he has been off all winter due to the poor ground, good ground is a necessity but I doubt he is classy enough. He ran poorly in last years Supreme before disappointing at Fairyhouse, he has enough to prove in the grade. Khyber Kim ran ok on is reappearance in the Kingwell after a long lay off, it would be a shock if an 11 year old was at his peak and I doubt he is up to it nowadays. Raya Star has been a superstar this year for Alan King, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle was a cracking run, although I'm not sure it is a strong form line of you take Darlan out of the race. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame didn't run up to scratch, I would be surprised if 3rd placed Dodging Bullets was up to Champion Hurdle standard either. Additionally, his best form has come at Ascot, Cheltenham is the other way round and his effort in the County Hurdle last year was his worst of the season. I would be surprised if he's good enough.

In conclusion, although the race will not been run slowly, I have doubts whether it will be run at the usual breakneck speed with no obvious pace setter in the field. There will be horses who like to race prominently, most notably Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby, however my thoughts are that they will set the race up for those speed horse behind who will be able to pick them off after jumping the last. Of course there is a chance they won't be able to get past the leaders, repeating the scenes of Hardy Eustace's second Champion Hurdle in 2005. It is an intriguing contest which may turn into a tactical affair, which if it does, I would rather side with the speed horses with that killer turn of foot. Of those: Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular fit the mould with GRANDOUET taking preference at the prices.

Advice - Grandouet - 2pt Win @13/2 William Hill/Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

Cinders And Ashes - The Verdict

What does the upcoming season hold for last years champion novice hurdler?

Can the resident of Donald McCain's stable cement the position as the best of the second season hurdler this year?

Will that iconic white blaze on the geldings head be seen romping up the Cheltenham finishing hill to claim the Champion Hurdle in March?

All questions I would imagine you are eager to find out the answer to!

As some of you readers may be aware after reading my previous posts, I don't consider last years crop of novice hurdlers to be all that special in comparison to previous years. There were 3 stand-out novices: Simonsig, Fingal Bay and Boston Bob. My opinion is that these horses are top-class and will hopefully be competing at the sharp end in the upcoming years championship races. Putting that trio to one side, I think the difference between the other novice hurdlers was minimal, Cinders And Ashes included. I think the strength in depth of the 2 mile novice hurdle division to be particularly thin on the ground. The distance between Cinders And Ashes, Trifolium, Darlan and Montbazon was just under 2 lengths. Potential unknown quantities such as Oscara Dara and Alderwood add some spice to the mix. Although, I find it questionable that they are a class above the rest which would place them on a similar level to the trio named above. Therefore, my opinion is the horses that progress into Champion Hurdle contenders this year are more likely to emerge from last years Triumph Hurdle than the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

Cinders And Ashes on route to victory at the Cheltenham Festival 2012

However on reflection, Cinders And Ashes win at the Cheltenham Festival last year was more impressive than I first gave it credit. His victory over Darlan by 1 1/4 lengths included two dreadful errors in the jumping department, at the 4th and more memorably at the last. If he hadn't made that mistake at the last, when the race was at boiling point, he could of won by 3 lengths or maybe more. Of the two lengths between the himself and the 4th placed horse Montbazon, he was over a length clear of Darlan in 2nd. Suggesting he is a notch above the 3 horses who were behind. I know Donald McCain understandably holds this horse in very high regard, but I question whether he holds him as high as his other Champion Hurdle contender Peddlers Cross? He surely can't. Peddlers Cross is out of the very top draw when you look at what he has achieved over hurdles. I know Cinders And Ashes is unproven in that regard and he may improve this year to be as good as his stable mate. If he does I think he will stand high in the pecking order of 2 mile hurdlers this season and I see no reason why he wouldn't be a live Champion Hurdle contender, particularly when the form from last years race looks to be slightly misleading.

The verdict. He appears to save his best effort of the season at the business end of the season. Could be a Champion Hurdle horse, his first couple of runs of the season against the big boys will be very revealing.