THE REVIEW 13/10/2012 - Super Saturday Selections

On a day where my 7 selections yielded 4 winners, 1 second and 2 unplaced, you would of thought I may have more money in my pocket now than I did at this time yesterday? Your'e incorrect. I hope you readers wallets are fatter than mine right now!

Reckless Abandon - Win 9/4
Clive Cox's colt was extremely brave in victory to claim the Middle Park Stakes. I was a bit worried when he was extremely keen when going down to post, but he is a quirky individual and this sort of behaviour doesn't seem to hinder him. Top jockey Gerald Mosse gave him a great ride, his shrewd tactical move to break quickly and get over to the rail from his wide draw effectively won him the race. I'm so happy Reckless Abandon's normal jockey Adam Kirby decided to jump off him and hop onto second placed finisher Moohaajm, would rather have Mosse on board any day of the week - he's class! Talk about a tilt at the 2000 Guineas next spring is absurd in my opinion. He has bags of speed, so why blunt that weapon by stepping him up in distance? He is a sprinter, no arguments. Last words on the race, unlucky Adam Kirby!!!

Dawn Approach

Dawn Approach - Win 2/5
Easiest race to watch all day. Never had any worries from start to finish. He's not the most flashy, but he's impressive in his own way. He was 6-1 ante-post with Paddy Power for the 2000 Guineas next year before the race, to my amazement he is now 7-2! I don't think that's a great ante-post bet. There are other 2 year olds who have also caught my eye this year, it looks a talented crop and there is plenty of maturing to be done between now and next May. I'm very sweet on last weeks Longchamp victor Olympic Glory. He appears to be the best of Richard Hannon's many talented 2 year olds and represents much better value at 16/1 than Dawn Approach at 7-2. However, I think Dawn Approach is a very serious prospect for next season and could well justify his 7-2 price next May. The fact he is never visually impressive is probably influencing my argument but I see no reason why he couldn't emulate his Dad (New Approach) by becoming the top 3 year old colt next year.

Countrywide Flame

Countrywide Flame - Second 7/1
I am still annoyed by this race. I think he was a tad unlucky in defeat but I cannot fault the horse, he was very brave in defeat. He was given a super ride by Jimmy Quinn who at 2 furlong pole had given the gelding every chance of victory. He just couldn't get passed Kieren Fallon and Aaim To Prosper who you have to give credit to, the first horse to win the Cesarewitch twice is some feat! I think Countrywide Flame was hindered by the winner hanging into him in the last 2 furlongs, it was a major factor in explaining why he couldn't get passed him. When the front one straightened up my lad was running on again to only be beaten 1/2 length. If he had a fair run at it the placing would have surely been reversed. In fairness to Fallon he had his whip in the correct hand so you can't fault his jockeyship, it's just very frustrating. I'm going to stop talking about this now as I can feel the steam starting to gather in my ears.

Fingal Bay - Win 4/6
I said he was value at even money and I still think he was value at 4/6. He jumped impeccably and won a very cosy length. Although the race wasn't much of a contest after Poungach fell at the first, Richard Johnson seemed comfortable the whole way round and was more than happy to lob along in front. He idled in front and the threat from Tiger O'Toole was never a serious one, but don't underestimate the runner-up, he was rated 137 over hurdles. All in all, a good start and a nice way to blow away the cob webs. His next target will be a novice chase at Wincanton or at the Open Meeting next month.

Hinterland

Hinterland - Win 11/8
The easiest winner of the day! He was very impressive and one of the smoothest successes you will see all year. Those of you who read my blog about Hinterland  ( My Hinterland Blog can be found at : http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/a-season-of-promise-for-hinterland.html.) will know I thought this horse was a fantastic jumper and he proved me right today, he was as slick as you like. He will make a cracking novice chaser later in the year. I also tipped Red Riverman from the Twiston Davies yard each way at 33/1, he ran on to finish second but he wasn't carrying my money - bollocks I got a 100% return on the Hinterland win but could have had over 700% return on Twisty`s gelding ! I will gain some compensation if he was carrying yours though! Feel free to contact me through twitter if this is the case, I'm sure you'll love basking in my failures :)!

Ulis De Vassey - Unplaced 11/2
I was quids in if this horse had come home in front, unfortunately it was not to be. I didn't know much about the horse and took the punt because he was at the bottom of the handicap and unexposed. I suggested in my blog that previous winners in the race were very lightly weighted, I obviously picked the wrong one. The winner, Kitegen, carried 10-8. Oh well. When you back an unexposed horse they either normally make the shake up or are tailed off like Ulis De Vassy was here. That's the punt you take, we move on!

Golden Chieftain - 10/1 Unplaced
I really really fancied this horse! Everything about it smelt right, having backed the horse on Friday afternoon at 10/1, when I looked at the prices this morning to see the Tizzard horse at 4/1 I thought I was onto something. It was an odd race. He hit a fence badly halfway down the back on their last circuit and lost his place as a result. Joe Tizzard appeared to give him an easy time afterwards, he ran on in the end to finish 5th staying on past tired horses.  It was an eye-catching run in that it felt like a prep run for a future race? I think so, perhaps the Welsh National. Watch this one closely!

Other horses on the day that I took note of were: Handazan, Regal Encore, Far West and Rigidity.

Rigidity

The Tim Vaughan trained Rigidity ran an eye-catching race yesterday in a 2 mile novice chase at Hexham. He is one of my 10 really dark horses to follow this year and it was decent effort on ground that was far from ideal. Although it was very heavy, he finished 5th and jumped pretty nicely. I think it was a nice sighter for him and there is more to come in the future.

suggested Handazan was a 'sit and watch' horse and that ended up being the case. He was very novicy at his hurdles and appears to lack experience, I suspect the run will have done him the world of good. Give him time because he may progress with more experience to be quite smart. My thoughts on Handazan can be found at  http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html.

Handazan's conqueror, Far West from the Paul Nicholls stable, looked to be very smart too. The soft ground at Chepstow seemed to be to his liking as his action would suggest that he prefers some cut in the ground. His previous experience over hurdles was obviously to his benefit. Where Handazan's jumping was scratchy, this horse was foot perfect and he simply  'out-jumped' the Alan King trained colt. Far West looks like he may progress into a really smart horse and you would expect him to compete in top quality novice hurdles later in the year. He excites me.

Anthony Honeyball - Can Regal Encore Put Him On The Map?

If anyone missed the bumper at Chepstow, you missed out big time! The Anthony Honeyball trained Regal Encore absolutely hacked up. Jesus! He was mightily impressive. Recently purchased by JP Mcmanus, the mount of AP McCoy was simply far far far too good for his rivals. Rebecca Curtis ran Amifunnyyet in the race which she interestingly rates as one of the best horses she's ever had, whilst Paul Nicholls was represented by Mcllhatton in what was a relatively hot bumper. The winner looks something extra special though and has the potential to be one of the best bumper horses around this year. His next target may be the bumper at the Open Meeting as Honeyball wants to test the gelding in better company, looking further ahead he will be aimed at the championship bumpers in the spring. I think it's brilliant that a small trainer like Anthony Honeyball has a horse of this calibre in their yard, it's also brilliant the horse is owned by a big owner, it can only be good for racing. Regal Encore may be the horse to put Anthony Honeyball on the map, after today you would suggest he will! If you haven't seen the race, you need to get onto the Attheraces website and have a watch!! Immediately.

Any comments or views? Contact me through twitter: @JoshRWDown

13/10/12 Super Saturday Selections

Newmarket:

2:20 - Middle Park
Selection - Reckless Abandon (pictured above)
I have backed him at 2-1 and the weight of my money has already contracted the price to15-8! G Mosse comes over from France to retain the ride and gets on well with the horse. I know the Marco Botti camp are sweet on the chance of Moojaahim and feel there is improvement to come from the Prix Morny. Although he didn't get the run of the race in the Prix Morny, whereas Reckless Abandon did, I still think Clive Cox's colt would of had his measure and I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow. If Reckless Abandon was a Godolphin or Ballydoyle horse he would surely be shorter than 15-8 and I think on merit he deserves to be a shorter price than he is.

2:55 - Dewhurst
Selection - Dawn Approach
The best 2 year colt this term, he looks to cement himself as the top European 2 year colt tomorrow. His sire New Approach produces sperm in the shape of the £ sign and it appears his offspring are carrying the chromosomes which have won the derby in 2008. He will be very difficult to beat tomorrow, I have no worries about him handling the ground tomorrow as his sire won on soft.

3:35 - Cesarewitch
Selection -  Countrywide Flame (pictured above)
Fits most of the trends. An example of a few are: Drawn in stall 7, 7/10 winners drawn in stall 12 or below. Carries 8-5, 7/10 carried below 9-1. Won over 2 miles, 10/10 won over at least 1m 6f. 2006 Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City followed that up with a win in the Cesarewitch for a famous double, this horse looks to replicate that feat this year. He will handle the ground and he is a certainty to stay. Carrying 8-5 is an absolute steal and he is pricewises ante-post tip, I expect a bold show.

Chepstow:

1:55 - Juvenile Hurdle
Selection - Handazan
Those of you who read my blog yesterday will know how highly Alan King rates this horse. He is unraced over hurdles, but the ground is a concern. He would prefer it with less juice but he has won on heavy on the flat. He is probably a 'sit and watch' horse tomorrow, but he should be race fit having been on the go through the summer for John Oxx. Please revert to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html for further details.

3:00 - 2 mile 3 furlong Novice Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay (pictured above)
One of my horses to follow for the coming season. I think he will rank very highly in the pecking order of staying novice chasers this term and this looks like a nice starting point. I expect him to be too good for his rivals tomorrow. The ground will be perfect and although the trip may be a bit on the short side, it will take some getting around Chepstow tomorrow and a stamina test should be right up this fella's street. I don't understand why he's not odds on? If England were value at 1/100 against San Marino tonight, then this horse is definitely value at even money.

3:40 - 2 mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Hinterland (pictured above)
Prep run before a novice chase campaign later on in the season. Paul Nicholls must think he is still on a winnable mark off 141 and the trainer has a brilliant record in the race. He obviously targets this race as an early season money spinner. Classy animals such as Domtaline, Escort'men and Gwanako have all won this race for team Ditcheat. Although he has to give almost a stone to the rest of the field, he still should be too classy for the others. I think the main danger will be the Donald McCain horse, but at a massive price I think the Twiston-Davies horse Red Riverman could have an each way chance. He receives 24 pounds from Hinterland. Sneaking in the bottom end off 10-4 he could still be unexposed and his trainer is red hot at the moment!

4:10 - 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ulis De Vassey
Winner on heavy at Bangor. Very unexposed 4 year old who receives weight all around running off 10-4. Sneaking in at the bottom end off a mark of 112, I'm willing to take a punt on this Nick Williams runner. Last 5 winners all carried below 11-2 and were all aged 4 or 5. Can't say much more because I don't know much about the horse to be honest! lol. I think the main danger may come from Carrigmorna King. He brings the best from into the race when he was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund Final at Sandown.

4:45 - 3 mile Handicap Chase
Selection - Golden Chieftain
Winner on soft and will appreciate the stamina test. Was rated 140 over hurdles and could still be well in over fences off a mark of 129. Last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less and were aged 6-8. Golden Chieftain carries 10-13 and is aged 7, he doesn't quite fit the trend but isn't far away and is still relatively unexposed. As for the others, Le Beau Bai has a superb Chepstow record and will love the ground, but the trip may be on the sharp side and I doubt he will be fully tuned up for this race on his reappearance. I fear Rangitoto the most as he is the other unexposed horse in the race and Paul Nicholls is bang in form. The Twiston-Davies yard are also in good form and saddle Cootehill , but I think he's in the hands of the handicapper off a mark of 137 and the unexposed horses should have his measure.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through twitter: 

@JoshRWDown

A Season Of Promise For Hinterland?

Paul Nicholls has confirmed plans to take the potentially still unexposed Hinterland novice chasing for the coming season. Rocky Creek, Sonofvic, Sam Winner, Poungach, Empire Levant, Oscargo and Themilanhorse are all also due to make the transition to the larger obstacles this winter. With a little bit of luck the French bred 4 year old will be an integral part of the novice chase team descending from Ditcheat this year.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=785143#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

I was in attendance to see Hinterland's first appearance on British soil at the Open Meeting in November last year. He easily swept aside the ever-dependable Hollow Tree in the JCB Triumph Hurdle trial on Paddy Power Gold Cup day to record a 3 length victory. He was promptly inserted as ante-post Triumph Hurdle favourite. Hollow Tree is a subsequent Grade 1 winner at Chepstow where he beat home Triumph Hurdle victor Countrywide Flame. On that basis you would say that the form looks relatively solid.

On the geldings return to Cheltenham for the December equivalent of the JCB Triumph hurdle trial he was sent of a very short 2-7f. He finished 2nd behind the ultra-impressive Baby Mix. His 7 length defeat came as a bit of a shock and it appeared the bubble may have been burst. I got the impression that Paul Nicholls felt that this horse was further down in the pecking order of his juveniles last year after Pearl Swan and Dodging Bullets emerged as high class performers later in the season. The reason I felt this was because Hinterlands next entry came on Festival Trials Day in January in a handicap hurdle, rather than in the JCB Triumph hurdle trial you would have expected him to run in on the same day. Pearl Swan filled that berth from the Nicholls stable. At first I thought it may have been due to the handicap hurdle being worth more value in prize money than the Triumph Hurdle trial. However the handicap was worth £13,000 whereas the Triumph hurdle trial was worth £14,000. So this wasn't the case. Hinterland once again went off a hot favourite at 15-8f for the handicap hurdle, but seemed to have a few traffic problems. He didn't get the run of the race and this may have been why he never quite got to the leaders and finished a 5 length 3rd behind the promising Module.

He skipped the Cheltenham Festival and was saved for Aintree, where he ran in the Matalan Juvenile Hurdle against leading Triumph Hurdle protagonists Countrywide Flame, Grumeti and stable mate Dodging Bullets. We didn't learn a lot from the run as he crashed out at the 5th hurdle on the back straight. He severely hampered his stable mate Dodging Bullets and cost the stable of any chance of victory, which must of been frustrating. Although the easy thing to do was to draw a line through the run, I felt the horse wasn't running too badly. Although they were a long way from home, he was going at least as well as his stable mate Dodging Bullets. I don't know what the pecking order at Ditcheat was last year, but Ruby Walsh would have got first pick and he chose Dodging Bullets on the back of his Triumph Hurdle exploits whilst Noel Fehily rode Hinterland. Would that suggest Hinterland was below Dodging Bullets? Maybe - I interpreted it that way.

In relation to the coming season I wouldn't have a clue where Nicholls would start Hinterland as he has so many novice chasers to place. I wouldn't be surprised if he is struggling to find an appropriate starting place too! He was a good jumper of a hurdle, athletic, straight and with a low trajectory. He was probably one of the best jumpers as a juvenile last year, like so many of Paul Nicholls' horses. Bearing this in mind I don't see any problems with his jumping when he goes novice chasing this season. When I saw him in the pre-parade ring at Cheltenham he appeared to have the scope to jump a fence and although I have not seen him since November 2011 another years physical and mental maturity since then should assist him too. He ran over 2 miles last year and I would like to think he will stick to that trip this winter but a step-up to 2 1/2miles in time would probably be to his liking too. Like so many triumph hurdle horses he may prefer more of a stamina test as he matures. If this is the case, I think careful management this season could see him line up in the 2 1/2 mile handicap novice chase at the Festival next year off a juicy handicap mark. My only concern would be whether the age of 4 is too young to go novice chasing. I know Paul Nicholls would disagree with me but is 4 going on 5 too young for a horse to tackle fences? Are they mature enough ? If you look at point-to-points you would have to say it isn't a problem, but I can't help but looking at Sam Winner last year who to me didn't look ready to be a novice chaser. I hope this won't be the case with Hinterland as he appears to be really smart and is an exciting prospect for the coming season.

The verdict - one to have on your side.