Showing posts with label The New One. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The New One. Show all posts

Sunday, 21 October 2012

THE REVIEW - Friday The 'Showcase' Meeting

There's nothing quite like the atmosphere at Cheltenham, that buzz around the paddock before the opening race cannot be matched. Returning to the 'Home Of Jump Racing' was superb and certainly whet the appetite for next months 'Open Meeting'. If any of you readers have never been to Cheltenham, I can't speak highly enough of the racecourse, it's impossible to leave dissatisfied!


Having had time to reflect on my racing at Cheltenham over the weekend. Lets start at the beginning.....Friday:

Neptune Novices Hurdle:
The race was all about one horse, The New One from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. He was an easy winner at Newton Abbott over 2 miles on his hurdling debut and he was equally impressive when taking this higher class contest. Any doubts what his optimum trip is were promptly swept aside after he powered up the hill to a 3 length victory. 2 1/2 miles is definitely his trip, he will need even further in time. He was slightly novicey at some of his hurdles but otherwise his jumping was safe and when Village Vic asked him a serious question when joining him at the last, he responded strongly to Sam Twiston-Davies urgings and won a cosy 3 lengths. Village Vic looked the best of the rest and seems to fit a similar mould, he will need 3 miles in time too but may be a notch or two below top-class. Top-class is what the winner looked, his trainer after the race stated: 'I think he's very special, I hope his jumping errors were just inexperience. Big Bucks will not go on forever so in 18 months time we might be looking at races like the World Hurdle.' He's obviously rated very highly and looks to be a Gold Cup horse in the making, he will return to Cheltenham next month for the Open Meeting. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so in my pre weekend blog! The New One was a good thing!! http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/selections-showcase-cheltenham.html

The New One
2 Mile 4 Furlong Novice Chase:
Those of you who read my pre weekend blog will know that I was very sweet on the chances of King Of The Night in this race. His 3rd place finish was a good effort and he will have learned a lot from the experience. He jumped nicely throughout, albeit a bit slow and slightly right-handed. I would say that he would be seen best going right-handed. I haven't given up on him yet. Carlito Brigante was a battling winner and was gettable when looking back at his previous winning course form, he's just too inconsistent. He's a notch below top-class but it depends if you catch him on a going day. Domtaline was a bit of an unlucky second, he measured his fences superbly and nearly won by 'out-jumping' his rivals, another day he would of won the race. There's a win in him somewhere this year. I don't understand why Go All The Way was favourite, his form over hurdles wasn't very good and I don't hold him in the same regard as others. He was a beaten horse when he came down and gave Andrew Lynch a cracking limp! The horse I've taken out of the race though is Kingsmere. This resident of the Henry Daly stable came down 2 out and was probably a bit unlucky. He was almost going too well when swinging off the bend and met the second last completely wrong, I don't think he took off, he just ploughed through it. He was tanking along! I think he caught Jake Greenall out, it looked like he let Kingsmere make his own mind up whilst Kingsmere was hoping Greenall would make his mind up for him. Routs (who navigated so incredibly adequately from the back seat on his phone all weekend) told me after the race that whilst on a stable tour Daly had said he really liked this horse and was hoping that he could make a very good chaser. Tell you what Henry. I think you might be right! He's subsequently gone into my Sportinglife stable and I'm hopeful he might be that good horse Henry Daly has been missing since the retirement of Mighty Man.

Kingsmere
Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier:
Have to admit, considering this was one of the most competitive races of the meeting, I didn't do too badly. I tipped Heaney (3rd) from Ireland and Viking Blond (2nd) as an each-way shout. I would take another chance on Heaney as he looked to have a few traffic problems at the top of the hill, although he came there menacingly turning for home, he had used too much petrol to get there and couldn't go with the the front two up the hill. His handicap mark won't change too much and I think he has another win in him. My each-way selection Viking Blond ran a stonker! I felt he may have a good chance off 127 and so it proved, the Twiston-Davies yard had a great meeting and you can't help but feel that this was his day. He looked a picture in the paddock and may have been primed for the race. Twiston-Davies likes to run his horses so I would expect to see him again soon and depending on what happens to his handicap mark, he could go close again this year. He is a reliable type, but I would be interested to see what they do with the blinkers though. He didn't wear them on Friday and it seemed to freshen him up. The winner, Action Master, looked seriously well handicapped and it will be interesting to see how much his rating rises in due course. He won with plenty in hand and I wouldn't be surprised if he was stepped up in class next time out. Sivola De Sivola ran another eye-catcher without getting close to the front end, he's becoming difficult to place.

Viking Blond
3 Mile Novice Chase:
I said I didn't think this was a great novice chase, which may have been a bit harsh, but having seen the outcome I've concluded it was a bit better than I gave it credit, but not that much. The winner, Sire Collonges impressed me a lot actually. He wasn`t that great over hurdles, but I get the impression whatever he did over hurdles was a bonus because he was bought as a chaser and he looks a good chaser too! Like Domtaline, the other Nicholls novice chaser, he jumped immaculately. Nicholls must school his horses like hell because they jump so much better than the other other novices it's embarrassing! Apart from Walsh`s nearly embarrassing loss of balance at the second last the greys performance was perfect. Always prominent, the grey dictated things from the front and was always in control. 20-1 ante-post for the RSA chase looks a bit skimpy at the moment, I don't think he beat much but his style of racing would seem perfect for that race. Jumping from fence to fence, at his own pace, dictating the race might be ideal, it just depends if he's good enough. It's likely he isn't and he may give the better horses a tow into the race. I backed White Star Line, who ran poorly, he made a bad mistake when the race started to hot up which wasn't ideal but I think he was beat anyway. He's not a natural over a fence. Whilst Sire Collonges looked athletic, White Star Line certainly didn't. There's also a possibility he didn't stay 3 miles, may be a revert back to 2 1/2 miles is on the cards?  Sea Of Thunder ran ok but he was never beating Sire Collonges, if he wasn't a Gigginstown horse he wouldn't of gone off 11/8 favourite! The winner looks like fences have been the making of him and he ticks a lot of the right boxes. He's progressive and you can't help but like the horse.

Sire Collonges Falls At Aintree Last Year
Maiden Hurdle:
Court Minstrel gave owner Janet Davies her first winner at Cheltenham and upset the big boys whilst doing so. He was smooth in success and is a strong traveller, which should hold him in good stead when competing in better company. It depends how much he will find off the bridle, looking at Friday's 4 length victory it's feasible to say he will find plenty, the winning margin was extending all the way to line. He strengthens the form of The New One who beat him in the Aintree Bumper and also the highly rated novice Tistory from the Henderson yard who beat him 3/4 length at Ludlow. I like him an awful lot. The award for worst effort of the meeting across the two days goes to the John Ferguson trained Population who pulled up just after half way. It was weird. Titan De Sarti made a much improved return after a lengthy lay off, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but stayed on past beaten horses to take 3rd, a step up in trip looks on the cards and he may be an animal on an upward curve this term. Landscape from the Paul Nicholls stable ran disappointingly but may have needed the run after nearly a year off. Softsong from the Phillip Hobbs stable pulled like hell and was so free that Richard Johnson let him stride on and although he finished 5th beaten 13 lengths he was bang there at the last. He made a mistake and soon weakened but he may be one to keep an eye on because his effort was better than it appears at first sight. The Romford Pele has course form following his 7th in the Cheltenham Bumper and looks like a decent yardstick.
Titan De Sarti Ran A Much Better Race
Amateur Riders Handicap Chase:
I fancied Iheardu, if I put you onto the horse, I'm sorry Uheardme. It was a terrible bet! Always in rear and never closer until pulled up. When he won this race last year it was a much weaker renewal than this year, the winner Hunters Lodge was a classic case of 'follow the in form trainers!' http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/autumn-twiston-davies-factor.html He became the second part of a Twiston-Davies double, albeit slightly fortuitously! The Gordon Elliot trained Romanesco was p*****g all over him at the last until he landed too steep and turned over on landing, leaving jockey J J Codd thumping the ground with frustration. The back seat sleeper (apparently he only snores when horizontal, thank god!) stood in his lucky spot on the grass, whilst the rest of us sat in the seats. The lucky spot had brought him a winner when Court Minstrel won the previous race and he wasn't for persuading when asked if he was watching with us. Immediately after Hunters Lodge crossed the line we looked down to where he was standing and saw him stationary, looking a bit glum. We assumed he had backed Romanesco, I was praying he had backed Romanesco! Sadly, he had backed the winner. I was already lining up the abuse he was going to receive that evening! The one day ban some of the jockeys got for showing 'misconduct' was ridiculous. The 3 mile start isn't in a suitable position to cater for big fields in handicaps, the entrance onto the course just isn't wide enough to have 20 jockeys competing for very little room, consequently it gets messy. The start is fine for smaller fields but it's not working for the bigger fields. Amendments needed please Simon Claisse.

Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle:
This race looked seriously difficult on paper. It turned out to be much easier than it looked after Dark Lover won very decisively, Ryan Mahon gave it a peach of a ride and as soon as they turned in there was only one winner. The 605 day absence obviously didn't hinder him in any way, you would expect he's a miles better than the 120 rating he was running off! He should step up in class now and he could have another handicap win in him, he is on an upward curve. Changing Of The Guard ran another great race, ever consistent but always finds one to good. I hope the handicapper is kind to him because you have to admire his reliability. Persian Snow ran an eye-catching race, staying on from the rear to take 3rd. He was very highly thought of in his early days, I remember him winning a bumper around Ascot a couple of years ago and kept an eye out for him afterwards. He was saved for the Aintree bumper but didn't make the shake up, sadly he didn't transfer that form to hurdles initially. It appears he may be starting to get his act together over hurdles now, could appreciate a step up in trip and perhaps one to put in your Sportinglife stable.

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Thursday, 18 October 2012

Selections - 'The Showcase' Cheltenham

I am attending both days of Cheltenham's 'Showcase' meeting this weekend, consequently I will be far too busy to blog! Before I leave for Gloucestershire, I feel obliged to reveal my thoughts on the weekends action, I hope these selections are as successful as last week!


2:10 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Selection - The New One - Even Money
In recent memory, has there been a horse that has caused such a stir from the Twiston-Davies stable? 6th in the Cheltenham Bumper at the Festival last year, the gelding finished last season on a real high by taking the Aintree equivalent a month later. He has a novice hurdle win under his belt after a classy success at Newton Abbot earlier in the month and I would expect him to be too good for his rivals here. The main question mark will be how he handles the uncharted waters the extra 5 furlongs will throw up. I personally think it will be play to his strengths, he has a lot of scope and a stamina test will suit him down to the ground. In time I think he will need even further. He brings the best form into the race and looks a good thing.

The New One
2:45 - 2 miles 4 furlongs Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night- 4/1
Undoubtedly the best horse in the race if you look at hurdle ratings. His trainer Harry Fry, who has gone solo after leaving the Paul Nicholls' stable in the summer, has stated that the horse has been schooling nicely. You would imagine King Of The Night is the second best horse in his yard behind reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby, he was rated 157 over hurdles. He has winning course form at this meeting two years ago and I think his rivals will struggle to give him weight, bearing in mind he was a better hurdler. If he transfers his hurdle form he should go close on his chase debut.

King Of The Night
3:20 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Qualifier
Selection - Heaney -5/1
Wow this is a competitive race, I found it really hard to narrow it down to one. In the end I've gone for the Irish raider, the Tom Taafe trained Heaney. The gelding looks unexposed, his last win two weeks ago at Gowran over 3 miles was quite impressive. He has been raised 10 pounds for that win, but I think there may be more to come. I am inquisitive as to why he is coming across the Irish Sea for a race so soon after his last run, my guess is this horse ideally wants good ground, which he can't find in Ireland. He is a 5 year old, which suggests to me he is on the upgrade, also Paul Townend comes over to retain the winning partnership. As long as the run two weeks ago, along with his travels,  hasn't taken too much out of him,  I think he stands as good a chance as any in a very competitive race. If I had to look elsewhere I quite like Viking Blond (16/1) each way from the Twiston-Davies yard. The stable is in form and he has dropped to a mark of 127 over hurdles. His novice chase campaign last year was an unsuccessful one, but it looks like he has dropped to a winnable mark over hurdles. Using Cross Kennon as a guide, Viking Blond was a 3 length second to the top weight at the Open Meeting in 2010. 2 years on Cross Kennon is rated 147, Viking Blond 127. This means Cross Kennon has to to give Viking Blond 20 pounds, whereas if you take the previous Open Meeting form, he should only be giving him 3 or 4 pounds. He could be well in.

3:55 - 3 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - White Star Line - 5/1
I don't think this is a great race to be honest. I don't rate many of the horses highly and all things considered, it's a poor novice chase by Cheltenham's standards. Nonetheless, if I had to make a selection it would White Star Line. He is another Irish raider having his first try over 3 miles. He was 2nd to Hunt Ball at the Festival last year and appeared to be done for toe at the bottom of the hill. More recently, he was 2nd to the high class mare Tarla from the Willie Mullins stable over hurdles. If you read the 'comments in running' from the Racing Post, the majority say that this horse 'kept on' to run into the placings. I think perhaps the step up in trip will be to his advantage. Sea Of Thunder is over-rated, he is judged on his run when falling at the last when he was 6 lengths clear in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham last year. What was behind him that day? Deireadh Re and Rev It Up. They have not proven to be great. The rest of his form isn't anything special either.

Iheardu
5:05 - Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
Selection - Iheardu - 11/1
Winner of the race last year off a mark of 105, he runs again this year off 106. I think he prefers quick ground as he does his racing throughout the summer, I fear the good to soft ground at Cheltenham will be too slow for him. He has never won on anything softer than good. However, I would still be keen on taking my chance on this resident of Neil Mulholland's stable. Mr J T Carroll rode him last year and has experience around Cheltenham, that's more than some of the other jockeys can offer. It's a tricky race and I've gone for previous Cheltenham form as my guide. Although if I gave you a fiver and asked you to have a bet for me, I would be happy if you backed almost any of the runners. It's a guess-up!

For my thoughts on the big 2 1/2 mile handicap chase on Saturday please refer to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/cheltenhams-showcase-meeting-preview.html.

Other horses to keep an eye out for over the weekend :
Ranjaan
Qianshan Leader
Bradley
Medinas
Third Intention
Get Me Out Of Here

Also..........Frankel.


Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Autumn - The Twiston-Davies Factor

I think it is a relatively well known fact that the autumn has been " happy hunting season" for Nigel Twiston-Davies for many years. The Gloucestershire based trainer targets this time of the year to pick up the decent prize money which is on offer in an attempt to steal a march on his rival trainers. Whilst his competitors are warming up for the season proper, Twiston-Davies is readying his horses to hit the ground running. A ploy that has been very successful in recent years. Big winners in previous autumns include Imperial Commander in the 2008 Paddy Power Gold Cup, Kyber Kim in the2009  Greatwood Hurdle and more recently Billie Magern in the £15,000 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting.


Guess what? He's at it again this year! No surprise there. Between 29th September 2012 and the 10th October 2012, Twiston-Davies has saddled 20 runners. His record reads as follows:
  • 1st: 7
  • 2nd: 4
  • 3rd: 3
  • Unplaced: 6
  • Fell/unseated: 0
That's a win percentage of 35% and a win/place percentage of 70%. Now there's a hot trainer if you've ever seen one!

The New One made an exciting novice hurdle debut earlier this month, he is one to follow this season!
There's no doubt he's a trainer to keep on your side for the rest of the Autumn. I can guarantee if your thinking about backing one of his horses that it will be primed for the race and your sure to get a run for your money. Not often you can expect a 70% chance of a return on your each way bet !