Paddy Power Exclusive - Saturday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham tomorrow to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

12:45 -2 Miles. JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial
Selection - Vasco Du Ronceray

Vasco Du Ronceray - I'm Confident He Can Build On His Ultra Impressive Hereford Victory

As always this race has strong representatives from the big stables. Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with with Hinterland and Sam Winner, this year he saddles Far West who attempts to extend the stables winning streak. Far West swept aside subsequent Aintree winner Handazan by 12 lengths at Chepstow last month and the latter is very highly rated by his handler Alan King. He jumped slickly and quickened nicely in the soft ground, but coincidentally that's my main fear as he has never raced on anything other than soft. His action would suggest that he prefers a bit of dig in the ground. That is enough to sway me towards the Nicky Henderson trained Vasco Du Ronceray, although I don't think there is much between them. I couldn't believe how easy he won at Hereford earlier this month, it may not have been much of a race but his 32 length win couldn't have been more impressive. He jumped, travelled and quickened effortlessly, it was a really classy performance. It will be interesting to see how he ranks in The Seven Barrows juvenile ranks that is notoriously strong year to year. I don't think anything else will be good enough to be honest. Tom George's Roc D'Apsis is unraced and could be anything, he showed how well he handles juveniles last year with Baby Mix.  Dovils Date is also an unknown quantity, his win at Musselburgh was taking, but Cheltenham and Musselburgh are poles apart. McVicar has form in the book and is highly rated, but will struggle with a double penalty.

1:20 - 3 Miles. Rewards4racing Novice Chase
Selection - Sire Collonges

Sire Collonges (Left) and Sea Of Thunder (Right) Re-oppose  After Their Tussle Here Last Month

Much like the October equivalent of this race, I am finding it difficult to find something to oppose Sire Collonges. He looked smart here last month and looked to have all the makings of a novice chaser who can go to the top this season. Making his seasonal reappearance, he jumped and travelled like a class horse and apart from Ruby Walsh's minor balance issue between the last two fences, he won well. Paul Nicholls thinks he will improve for that run and if he's proven to be correct, you would expect this grey to go very very close here. I fancy him strongly. Sea Of Thunder went off a short-priced favourite for that race last month and was beaten fair and square by Sire Collonges who is expected to improve for the run, this horse was probably very forward for the race and he will have to improve past the grey to reverse the form. He is remembered for his fall at the last when clear in a novice hurdle here last year, I personally don't think that form is all that strong, the word overrated is to the forefront of my mind. Our Father is an interesting recruit to chasing this year, he was a talking horse over hurdles and has always looked like a chaser. He has plenty of scope and I expect him to be better for a fence, however I don't think he has the class of Sire Collonges and his one run at Cheltenham was a disappointing one. Sire Collonges main threat could come from across the Irish Sea in the form of Sraid Padraig. Tony Martin wouldn't be bringing him here for no reason and I imagine he wants to find out how good he is. This lightly raced 6 year old has solid Point-To-Point form behind Rocky Creek and ran respectively to finish 6th in the Champion Point-To-Point bumper at Fairyhouse, whose roll of honour includes Simonsig and Last Instalment. He was only beaten 10 lengths that day and he more recently made a taking chasing debut at Limerick, staying on well after the last to take the 2 1/2 mile contest by 7 lengths. He was extending at the finish line and I expect the extra 1/2 mile here will suit. It will be interesting to see how the market shapes up. I think Sire Collonges will be short, shorter than 6/4 is a no go area but anything 6/4 or bigger is a decent price. I think he's as close as you will get to bombproof across the 3 day meeting....................apart from Sprinter Sacre of course!

1:55 - 3 Miles 3 Furlongs. Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase
Selection - Bradley

Bradley - The Extra 3 Furlongs He Will Encounter Should Suit

I can't stress how sweet I am on Bradley, I think he stands an outstanding chance! His latest run here last month was very promising and should hopefully set him up perfectly for this race. The 3 mile trip was probably a bit sharp, he wasn't massively outpaced but always seemed to be niggled from half-way down the back straight. Awkward leaps at the 3rd and 2nd last didn't help his chances, but he was gaining on the leaders towards the finish. Paddy Brennan actually stopped riding before the line, beaten 6 lengths actually reads beaten 3 or 4 lengths. I think he's fairly treated at the weights off a mark of 133 and I expect him to improve for his run last month, the extra 3 furlongs should also be to his advantage too. He is a horse I have followed for a while and although he has a lot in his favour here, but I worry he finds it difficult to get his head in front. Galaxy Rock is a horse that tends to have one race a year which he's lined up for, it appears it's a bit of a bonus if he runs into a place in his other efforts. He won this race last year off 135 and bids to retain off 141, I worry that is a bit high and I think 'his day' was last time out. Harry The Viking put in a cracking effort to be runner-up here in the 4 miler at the Festival, he has a mark of 142 and is open to improvement. He was over the top in the Scottish National so put a line through that run, with course form under his belt and with another years maturity, I fancy him to go close. Carruthers, Fruity O'Rooney, Chicago Grey and Teaforthree are all paying the price for their efforts in high profile races last year and are surely too highly weighted to win here. I think there are better handicapped horses in the race and it's likely this race is being used as a stepping stone to the Nationals later in the season. Master Overseer was a gallant winner of the Midlands National in March and has subsequently been raised 7lb, off 133 there is a chance this lightly raced 9 year old could still be improving. Fredo has run some admirable races here, particularly at the Festival. I fancy him to do the same without making the shake-up.

2:35 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Paddy Power Gold Cup
Selection - Grands Crus

Grands Crus - Potentially The Best Handicapped Horse In The Race

There isn't a lot that I can say which hasn't been said already about Grands Crus, I'd imagine you are sick of people tipping this headstrong grey! Potentially the best handicapped horse in the race off 157, I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles is ideal. He travels and jumps superbly and the a strong run race it will suit. I'm on at 6's and am sitting pretty with the 2/1 or 9/4 around now. It's a ridiculous price and there are horses which represent better value to me. Another horse there isn't a lot I can say that hasn't already been said is Hunt Ball. The fairytale story of last season, he will have to improve again to win this. How much improvement he has left in him is debatable. The Aintree form isn't the strongest and his win at Cheltenham was probably in the weakest race at the Festival. You can't take those away from him, but I think he may be found wanting a bit here. Walkon fits all the trends. Rating band is roughly 140-147, he is rated 143. 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 7, Walkon is a 7 year old. Last 5 winners all carried less than 11 stone, Walkon carries 10-6. 4 of the last 5 winners were second season chasers, Walkon is a second season chaser. He is also best when mad fresh and this is his seasonal reappearance/ The stats don't lie and he should go close, the King stable has also been in good form recently which is a bonus. 8/1 is a bit skimpy for me bearing in mind he is up against two potential Gold Cup horses in the form of Grands Crus and Hunt Ball. He is probably a notch or two below them and I would be looking for 10/1 to be interested. Nadiya De La Vega is looking to follow up after her victory here last month and I think she has a squeak. Similar to Walkon, she fits most of the trends but she isn't the most trustworthy and has been inconsistent in the past. Putting two runs together hasn't been her forte so far in her career, consequently she's not for me. Al Ferof was a late entry into the race by the champion trainer, I don't think they quite know what to do with this grey. His optimum trip is unknown and I fear this race wasn't originally the plan which I don't like. I also think he isn't the best handicapped horse,  159 looks high enough and I think he will struggle off that mark. On the plus side, he likes Cheltenham and he appeared to want further than 2 miles last year. Backing Divers is a risk, he's very inconsistent. I don't think Michael Flips is quite good enough to win a race like this, his form suggests he is always in contention, but rarely winning the race. Consequently, I think he will get found out here. This race is not often won by a horse who has been on the go in the summer such as The Disengager. Quantitativeeasing and Poquelin have brilliant Cheltenham records and have been placed in this race in the past. They look high enough in the handicap but may run into a place. Triolo D'Alene was fancied for the race Hunt Ball won at the Festival but flopped, I didn't think he liked the hustle and bustle of a major handicap and that puts me off here.

My selections for the day:
12:45 - Vasco Du Ronceray
1:20 - Sire Collonges
1:55 - Bradley
2:35 - Grands Crus
3:05 - Knight Pass, Star Neuville (Undecided)
3:40 - Tanerko Emery (If It Runs)

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown

THE REVIEW - Friday The 'Showcase' Meeting

There's nothing quite like the atmosphere at Cheltenham, that buzz around the paddock before the opening race cannot be matched. Returning to the 'Home Of Jump Racing' was superb and certainly whet the appetite for next months 'Open Meeting'. If any of you readers have never been to Cheltenham, I can't speak highly enough of the racecourse, it's impossible to leave dissatisfied!

Having had time to reflect on my racing at Cheltenham over the weekend. Lets start at the beginning.....Friday:

Neptune Novices Hurdle:
The race was all about one horse, The New One from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. He was an easy winner at Newton Abbott over 2 miles on his hurdling debut and he was equally impressive when taking this higher class contest. Any doubts what his optimum trip is were promptly swept aside after he powered up the hill to a 3 length victory. 2 1/2 miles is definitely his trip, he will need even further in time. He was slightly novicey at some of his hurdles but otherwise his jumping was safe and when Village Vic asked him a serious question when joining him at the last, he responded strongly to Sam Twiston-Davies urgings and won a cosy 3 lengths. Village Vic looked the best of the rest and seems to fit a similar mould, he will need 3 miles in time too but may be a notch or two below top-class. Top-class is what the winner looked, his trainer after the race stated: 'I think he's very special, I hope his jumping errors were just inexperience. Big Bucks will not go on forever so in 18 months time we might be looking at races like the World Hurdle.' He's obviously rated very highly and looks to be a Gold Cup horse in the making, he will return to Cheltenham next month for the Open Meeting. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so in my pre weekend blog! The New One was a good thing!! http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/selections-showcase-cheltenham.html

The New One

2 Mile 4 Furlong Novice Chase:
Those of you who read my pre weekend blog will know that I was very sweet on the chances of King Of The Night in this race. His 3rd place finish was a good effort and he will have learned a lot from the experience. He jumped nicely throughout, albeit a bit slow and slightly right-handed. I would say that he would be seen best going right-handed. I haven't given up on him yet. Carlito Brigante was a battling winner and was gettable when looking back at his previous winning course form, he's just too inconsistent. He's a notch below top-class but it depends if you catch him on a going day. Domtaline was a bit of an unlucky second, he measured his fences superbly and nearly won by 'out-jumping' his rivals, another day he would of won the race. There's a win in him somewhere this year. I don't understand why Go All The Way was favourite, his form over hurdles wasn't very good and I don't hold him in the same regard as others. He was a beaten horse when he came down and gave Andrew Lynch a cracking limp! The horse I've taken out of the race though is Kingsmere. This resident of the Henry Daly stable came down 2 out and was probably a bit unlucky. He was almost going too well when swinging off the bend and met the second last completely wrong, I don't think he took off, he just ploughed through it. He was tanking along! I think he caught Jake Greenall out, it looked like he let Kingsmere make his own mind up whilst Kingsmere was hoping Greenall would make his mind up for him. Routs (who navigated so incredibly adequately from the back seat on his phone all weekend) told me after the race that whilst on a stable tour Daly had said he really liked this horse and was hoping that he could make a very good chaser. Tell you what Henry. I think you might be right! He's subsequently gone into my Sportinglife stable and I'm hopeful he might be that good horse Henry Daly has been missing since the retirement of Mighty Man.

Kingsmere

Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier:
Have to admit, considering this was one of the most competitive races of the meeting, I didn't do too badly. I tipped Heaney (3rd) from Ireland and Viking Blond (2nd) as an each-way shout. I would take another chance on Heaney as he looked to have a few traffic problems at the top of the hill, although he came there menacingly turning for home, he had used too much petrol to get there and couldn't go with the the front two up the hill. His handicap mark won't change too much and I think he has another win in him. My each-way selection Viking Blond ran a stonker! I felt he may have a good chance off 127 and so it proved, the Twiston-Davies yard had a great meeting and you can't help but feel that this was his day. He looked a picture in the paddock and may have been primed for the race. Twiston-Davies likes to run his horses so I would expect to see him again soon and depending on what happens to his handicap mark, he could go close again this year. He is a reliable type, but I would be interested to see what they do with the blinkers though. He didn't wear them on Friday and it seemed to freshen him up. The winner, Action Master, looked seriously well handicapped and it will be interesting to see how much his rating rises in due course. He won with plenty in hand and I wouldn't be surprised if he was stepped up in class next time out. Sivola De Sivola ran another eye-catcher without getting close to the front end, he's becoming difficult to place.

Viking Blond

3 Mile Novice Chase:
I said I didn't think this was a great novice chase, which may have been a bit harsh, but having seen the outcome I've concluded it was a bit better than I gave it credit, but not that much. The winner, Sire Collonges impressed me a lot actually. He wasn`t that great over hurdles, but I get the impression whatever he did over hurdles was a bonus because he was bought as a chaser and he looks a good chaser too! Like Domtaline, the other Nicholls novice chaser, he jumped immaculately. Nicholls must school his horses like hell because they jump so much better than the other other novices it's embarrassing! Apart from Walsh`s nearly embarrassing loss of balance at the second last the greys performance was perfect. Always prominent, the grey dictated things from the front and was always in control. 20-1 ante-post for the RSA chase looks a bit skimpy at the moment, I don't think he beat much but his style of racing would seem perfect for that race. Jumping from fence to fence, at his own pace, dictating the race might be ideal, it just depends if he's good enough. It's likely he isn't and he may give the better horses a tow into the race. I backed White Star Line, who ran poorly, he made a bad mistake when the race started to hot up which wasn't ideal but I think he was beat anyway. He's not a natural over a fence. Whilst Sire Collonges looked athletic, White Star Line certainly didn't. There's also a possibility he didn't stay 3 miles, may be a revert back to 2 1/2 miles is on the cards?  Sea Of Thunder ran ok but he was never beating Sire Collonges, if he wasn't a Gigginstown horse he wouldn't of gone off 11/8 favourite! The winner looks like fences have been the making of him and he ticks a lot of the right boxes. He's progressive and you can't help but like the horse.

Sire Collonges Falls At Aintree Last Year

Maiden Hurdle:
Court Minstrel gave owner Janet Davies her first winner at Cheltenham and upset the big boys whilst doing so. He was smooth in success and is a strong traveller, which should hold him in good stead when competing in better company. It depends how much he will find off the bridle, looking at Friday's 4 length victory it's feasible to say he will find plenty, the winning margin was extending all the way to line. He strengthens the form of The New One who beat him in the Aintree Bumper and also the highly rated novice Tistory from the Henderson yard who beat him 3/4 length at Ludlow. I like him an awful lot. The award for worst effort of the meeting across the two days goes to the John Ferguson trained Population who pulled up just after half way. It was weird. Titan De Sarti made a much improved return after a lengthy lay off, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but stayed on past beaten horses to take 3rd, a step up in trip looks on the cards and he may be an animal on an upward curve this term. Landscape from the Paul Nicholls stable ran disappointingly but may have needed the run after nearly a year off. Softsong from the Phillip Hobbs stable pulled like hell and was so free that Richard Johnson let him stride on and although he finished 5th beaten 13 lengths he was bang there at the last. He made a mistake and soon weakened but he may be one to keep an eye on because his effort was better than it appears at first sight. The Romford Pele has course form following his 7th in the Cheltenham Bumper and looks like a decent yardstick.

Titan De Sarti Ran A Much Better Race

Amateur Riders Handicap Chase:
I fancied Iheardu, if I put you onto the horse, I'm sorry Uheardme. It was a terrible bet! Always in rear and never closer until pulled up. When he won this race last year it was a much weaker renewal than this year, the winner Hunters Lodge was a classic case of 'follow the in form trainers!' http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/autumn-twiston-davies-factor.html He became the second part of a Twiston-Davies double, albeit slightly fortuitously! The Gordon Elliot trained Romanesco was p*****g all over him at the last until he landed too steep and turned over on landing, leaving jockey J J Codd thumping the ground with frustration. The back seat sleeper (apparently he only snores when horizontal, thank god!) stood in his lucky spot on the grass, whilst the rest of us sat in the seats. The lucky spot had brought him a winner when Court Minstrel won the previous race and he wasn't for persuading when asked if he was watching with us. Immediately after Hunters Lodge crossed the line we looked down to where he was standing and saw him stationary, looking a bit glum. We assumed he had backed Romanesco, I was praying he had backed Romanesco! Sadly, he had backed the winner. I was already lining up the abuse he was going to receive that evening! The one day ban some of the jockeys got for showing 'misconduct' was ridiculous. The 3 mile start isn't in a suitable position to cater for big fields in handicaps, the entrance onto the course just isn't wide enough to have 20 jockeys competing for very little room, consequently it gets messy. The start is fine for smaller fields but it's not working for the bigger fields. Amendments needed please Simon Claisse.

Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle:
This race looked seriously difficult on paper. It turned out to be much easier than it looked after Dark Lover won very decisively, Ryan Mahon gave it a peach of a ride and as soon as they turned in there was only one winner. The 605 day absence obviously didn't hinder him in any way, you would expect he's a miles better than the 120 rating he was running off! He should step up in class now and he could have another handicap win in him, he is on an upward curve. Changing Of The Guard ran another great race, ever consistent but always finds one to good. I hope the handicapper is kind to him because you have to admire his reliability. Persian Snow ran an eye-catching race, staying on from the rear to take 3rd. He was very highly thought of in his early days, I remember him winning a bumper around Ascot a couple of years ago and kept an eye out for him afterwards. He was saved for the Aintree bumper but didn't make the shake up, sadly he didn't transfer that form to hurdles initially. It appears he may be starting to get his act together over hurdles now, could appreciate a step up in trip and perhaps one to put in your Sportinglife stable.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown