Paddy Power Exclusive - Saturday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham tomorrow to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

12:45 -2 Miles. JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial
Selection - Vasco Du Ronceray

Vasco Du Ronceray - I'm Confident He Can Build On His Ultra Impressive Hereford Victory

As always this race has strong representatives from the big stables. Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with with Hinterland and Sam Winner, this year he saddles Far West who attempts to extend the stables winning streak. Far West swept aside subsequent Aintree winner Handazan by 12 lengths at Chepstow last month and the latter is very highly rated by his handler Alan King. He jumped slickly and quickened nicely in the soft ground, but coincidentally that's my main fear as he has never raced on anything other than soft. His action would suggest that he prefers a bit of dig in the ground. That is enough to sway me towards the Nicky Henderson trained Vasco Du Ronceray, although I don't think there is much between them. I couldn't believe how easy he won at Hereford earlier this month, it may not have been much of a race but his 32 length win couldn't have been more impressive. He jumped, travelled and quickened effortlessly, it was a really classy performance. It will be interesting to see how he ranks in The Seven Barrows juvenile ranks that is notoriously strong year to year. I don't think anything else will be good enough to be honest. Tom George's Roc D'Apsis is unraced and could be anything, he showed how well he handles juveniles last year with Baby Mix.  Dovils Date is also an unknown quantity, his win at Musselburgh was taking, but Cheltenham and Musselburgh are poles apart. McVicar has form in the book and is highly rated, but will struggle with a double penalty.

1:20 - 3 Miles. Rewards4racing Novice Chase
Selection - Sire Collonges

Sire Collonges (Left) and Sea Of Thunder (Right) Re-oppose  After Their Tussle Here Last Month

Much like the October equivalent of this race, I am finding it difficult to find something to oppose Sire Collonges. He looked smart here last month and looked to have all the makings of a novice chaser who can go to the top this season. Making his seasonal reappearance, he jumped and travelled like a class horse and apart from Ruby Walsh's minor balance issue between the last two fences, he won well. Paul Nicholls thinks he will improve for that run and if he's proven to be correct, you would expect this grey to go very very close here. I fancy him strongly. Sea Of Thunder went off a short-priced favourite for that race last month and was beaten fair and square by Sire Collonges who is expected to improve for the run, this horse was probably very forward for the race and he will have to improve past the grey to reverse the form. He is remembered for his fall at the last when clear in a novice hurdle here last year, I personally don't think that form is all that strong, the word overrated is to the forefront of my mind. Our Father is an interesting recruit to chasing this year, he was a talking horse over hurdles and has always looked like a chaser. He has plenty of scope and I expect him to be better for a fence, however I don't think he has the class of Sire Collonges and his one run at Cheltenham was a disappointing one. Sire Collonges main threat could come from across the Irish Sea in the form of Sraid Padraig. Tony Martin wouldn't be bringing him here for no reason and I imagine he wants to find out how good he is. This lightly raced 6 year old has solid Point-To-Point form behind Rocky Creek and ran respectively to finish 6th in the Champion Point-To-Point bumper at Fairyhouse, whose roll of honour includes Simonsig and Last Instalment. He was only beaten 10 lengths that day and he more recently made a taking chasing debut at Limerick, staying on well after the last to take the 2 1/2 mile contest by 7 lengths. He was extending at the finish line and I expect the extra 1/2 mile here will suit. It will be interesting to see how the market shapes up. I think Sire Collonges will be short, shorter than 6/4 is a no go area but anything 6/4 or bigger is a decent price. I think he's as close as you will get to bombproof across the 3 day meeting....................apart from Sprinter Sacre of course!

1:55 - 3 Miles 3 Furlongs. Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase
Selection - Bradley

Bradley - The Extra 3 Furlongs He Will Encounter Should Suit

I can't stress how sweet I am on Bradley, I think he stands an outstanding chance! His latest run here last month was very promising and should hopefully set him up perfectly for this race. The 3 mile trip was probably a bit sharp, he wasn't massively outpaced but always seemed to be niggled from half-way down the back straight. Awkward leaps at the 3rd and 2nd last didn't help his chances, but he was gaining on the leaders towards the finish. Paddy Brennan actually stopped riding before the line, beaten 6 lengths actually reads beaten 3 or 4 lengths. I think he's fairly treated at the weights off a mark of 133 and I expect him to improve for his run last month, the extra 3 furlongs should also be to his advantage too. He is a horse I have followed for a while and although he has a lot in his favour here, but I worry he finds it difficult to get his head in front. Galaxy Rock is a horse that tends to have one race a year which he's lined up for, it appears it's a bit of a bonus if he runs into a place in his other efforts. He won this race last year off 135 and bids to retain off 141, I worry that is a bit high and I think 'his day' was last time out. Harry The Viking put in a cracking effort to be runner-up here in the 4 miler at the Festival, he has a mark of 142 and is open to improvement. He was over the top in the Scottish National so put a line through that run, with course form under his belt and with another years maturity, I fancy him to go close. Carruthers, Fruity O'Rooney, Chicago Grey and Teaforthree are all paying the price for their efforts in high profile races last year and are surely too highly weighted to win here. I think there are better handicapped horses in the race and it's likely this race is being used as a stepping stone to the Nationals later in the season. Master Overseer was a gallant winner of the Midlands National in March and has subsequently been raised 7lb, off 133 there is a chance this lightly raced 9 year old could still be improving. Fredo has run some admirable races here, particularly at the Festival. I fancy him to do the same without making the shake-up.

2:35 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Paddy Power Gold Cup
Selection - Grands Crus

Grands Crus - Potentially The Best Handicapped Horse In The Race

There isn't a lot that I can say which hasn't been said already about Grands Crus, I'd imagine you are sick of people tipping this headstrong grey! Potentially the best handicapped horse in the race off 157, I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles is ideal. He travels and jumps superbly and the a strong run race it will suit. I'm on at 6's and am sitting pretty with the 2/1 or 9/4 around now. It's a ridiculous price and there are horses which represent better value to me. Another horse there isn't a lot I can say that hasn't already been said is Hunt Ball. The fairytale story of last season, he will have to improve again to win this. How much improvement he has left in him is debatable. The Aintree form isn't the strongest and his win at Cheltenham was probably in the weakest race at the Festival. You can't take those away from him, but I think he may be found wanting a bit here. Walkon fits all the trends. Rating band is roughly 140-147, he is rated 143. 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 7, Walkon is a 7 year old. Last 5 winners all carried less than 11 stone, Walkon carries 10-6. 4 of the last 5 winners were second season chasers, Walkon is a second season chaser. He is also best when mad fresh and this is his seasonal reappearance/ The stats don't lie and he should go close, the King stable has also been in good form recently which is a bonus. 8/1 is a bit skimpy for me bearing in mind he is up against two potential Gold Cup horses in the form of Grands Crus and Hunt Ball. He is probably a notch or two below them and I would be looking for 10/1 to be interested. Nadiya De La Vega is looking to follow up after her victory here last month and I think she has a squeak. Similar to Walkon, she fits most of the trends but she isn't the most trustworthy and has been inconsistent in the past. Putting two runs together hasn't been her forte so far in her career, consequently she's not for me. Al Ferof was a late entry into the race by the champion trainer, I don't think they quite know what to do with this grey. His optimum trip is unknown and I fear this race wasn't originally the plan which I don't like. I also think he isn't the best handicapped horse,  159 looks high enough and I think he will struggle off that mark. On the plus side, he likes Cheltenham and he appeared to want further than 2 miles last year. Backing Divers is a risk, he's very inconsistent. I don't think Michael Flips is quite good enough to win a race like this, his form suggests he is always in contention, but rarely winning the race. Consequently, I think he will get found out here. This race is not often won by a horse who has been on the go in the summer such as The Disengager. Quantitativeeasing and Poquelin have brilliant Cheltenham records and have been placed in this race in the past. They look high enough in the handicap but may run into a place. Triolo D'Alene was fancied for the race Hunt Ball won at the Festival but flopped, I didn't think he liked the hustle and bustle of a major handicap and that puts me off here.

My selections for the day:
12:45 - Vasco Du Ronceray
1:20 - Sire Collonges
1:55 - Bradley
2:35 - Grands Crus
3:05 - Knight Pass, Star Neuville (Undecided)
3:40 - Tanerko Emery (If It Runs)

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown

Owners To Follow - The McNeill Family

The McNeill Family have had their fair share of the limelight when it comes to big race successes and I think it's likely to be case again this year. Horses to take into battle this year include: Champion Hurdle contender Grumeti. High-class handicappers Kumbeshwar, Olofi and Walkon. Potentailly exciting juveniles Handazan and Arabian Heights. The 2012 Sefton Hurdle winner Lovcen is also partly owned by the McNeills. With this kind of ammunition carrying the iconic blue and white hoops silks with burgundy sleeves and cap, you would expect the silks to be gracing the winners enclosure rather frequently!

Grumeti:
Alan King has been public in saying that he thinks this horse is the best juvenile he has ever trained. Now that's a bold statement! The King of Barbury Castle has had many top class juveniles over the years, including two Triumph Hurdle winners, Penzance, subsequent Champion Hurdle Winner Katchit as well as Walkon and the sadly ill-fated Mille Chief. The geldings first season was a very good one. He came a bit out of the unknown to score at Taunton on his debut at 11/2, before being an unlucky faller when having the race at his mercy at Newbury next time out. I think he hadn't quite got over the fall on his next start at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day where he won, albeit in the stewards room. Although he had a mild injury scare, the break between then and The Festival obviously did him the world of good. His run in Triumph was a cracker. He made a bad mistake down the back and although he finished 3rd, if he had met the last on a stride instead of fiddling over it, he may have won. Revenge over his Triumph conqueror Countrywide Flame was sweet at Aintree though. In my eyes, I thought he was just about the best juvenile last year and he should have matured nicely over the summer, he could be a much improved horse this year. King stated that Grumeti had improved quite a lot for his runs on the flat in the summer, before he had gone for his summer break! In relation to the Champion Hurdle, Grumeti looks to be another competitive addition to what is looking a very competitive race on the whole - he can be found at 25/1 Ante-post. The 4 year old hurdling season is notoriously tough, but he takes his racing well and could be underrated, I wouldn't be writing him off.

Lovcen (Right) - Will Be An Interesting Recruit To The Novice Chase Ranks

Lovcen:
This horse came a bit under the radar last year. Having made a promising debut behind Allthekingshorses and Rocky Creek on Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, he progressed to win his next start but then fell at the 2nd at Doncaster when re opposing Rocky Creek. Consequently, we didn't know much about him heading into the spring. A smooth success at Wincanton over Volador suggested he was starting to get his act together and this proved to be correct when he ran well in the Albert Bartlett at The Festival. He wasn't quite good enough to go with the horses at the front end, but stayed on admirably past beaten horses to run into 4th. His next start at Aintree was a superb effort. He matched potentially last years best staying novice hurdler Fingal Bay stride for stride all the way up the run-in, eventually having his measure by simply 'out-staying' him. His reappearance at Aintree was promising on heavy ground off top weight, which was far from ideal! Having turned the final bend travelling nicely, he found nothing off the bridle which suggested all the petrol had been used up to get himself into the race. However, his first run last year was of a similar ilk and it's feasible he needs that first run of the season to sharpen him up. The plan is to run in another hurdle race at the Open Meeting, where one of his owners sponsors the race, before heading novice chasing. I think the key to this horse is good ground, his best runs came in the spring on a sounder surface, so I would expect that to be the case again this year. His main attribute is his stamina and he could use this best to win either the RSA or the 4 Miler which are real war of attrition contests. I don't know whether he is quite top class, he probably wasn't over hurdles, but fences could be the making of him and I expect him to feature prominently in the staying novice chasers division this season. I think he could also be underrated.

Walkon Could Go Close In The Paddy Power

Walkon:
This grey was once considered to be out of the very top draw. He finished 2nd to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle before following up at Aintree in devastating style, a bit like Spirit Son's victory in 2011. However much like Spirit Son, injury struck. It was a long lay-off and whether he has quite recaptured his form from his juvenile days is debatable. His novice chase campaign last year started with a bang with an impressive win at Exeter, but he didn't follow it up all year. Alan King thought it probably flattered him all season. The geldings season finished disappointingly when he finished pulled up in the Scottish National in what was a a real stab in the dark to see if he would appreciate the stamina test. The plan was initially to target a graduation a chase for his reappearance but that appears to have been scrapped and replaced with a tilt at the Paddy Power. 2 1/2 miles is probably as short as he would like it, but he would be a live contender and there has been money for him ante-post - he can be found at 11/1 in places. The Alan King stable are in brilliant form at the moment so it's feasible to say that Walkon will put in a bold effort, bearing in mind how well he went fresh last year. He is rated 143 and second season chasers have a good record in the race too, 143 looks a fair, winnable mark. After that I don't know what the target will be, I suspect his season will be dependant on what happens to his rating after his effort in the Paddy Power. I think he has a handicap win in him somewhere.

Kumbeshwar Looks To Have A Tough Season Ahead

Kumbeshwar:
I love this horse, he reminds me of Lough Derg a bit. Like Lough Derg, he isn't the biggest in stature, but he makes up for it with his attitude. He is all heart, ever-consistent and totally admirable. He has been placed at two Cheltenham Festivals and again, like Lough Derg he runs frequently. His novice chase campaign last year was a successful one, the highlight being his 3rd place finish in the Grand Annual. The seasonal reappearance at Chepstow behind Oiseau De Nuit was solid as ever, running about up to form. He is rated 143 and Alan King thinks he is fully exposed, he will be tough to place this year, but King has stated his will go to all the big meetings and you can guarantee he will run his race. He is a swinger certainty.

Handazan: Juvenile To Follow - Handazan
The link above details information about Handazan in a previous blog. He is a new arrival from the John Oxx yard who has winning form on soft ground. The ground at Aintree was really testing the other day and he ground it out well, the 2nd For Two is rated very highly by Paul Nicholls and I think it was a high quality contest. The fact he handles soft ground was a bonus that day and his jumping improved from his debut at Chepstow where is was a bit scratchy. It wasn't foot perfect, but it was a vast improvement and he appears to be improving all the time, he can be found at 20/1 ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle. I think he is still an unknown quantity, he could be anything. I know Alan King really likes him and he is showing signs of improvement, if he keeps heading the right way he could make up into a really smart hurdler this year. He is yet to be gelded though.

Olofi (Left) - You Would Hope He's Competitive  In Handicap Hurdles Again This Year

Olofi:
Olofi started last year really well when chasing home Brampour in the Greatwood hurdle at the Open Meeting off a mark of 130. He rose to 136 after that run and was fancied to go close once again in valuable handicap hurdles later in the year, but that never quite materialised. He was probably a bit unlucky when falling at Newbury on his next start, he was travelling well when he crashed out two from home. A much better effort when 5th in the Betfair Hurdle on his return to Newbury was just what the doctor ordered, but he then disappointed on his next outing at the Festival in the County Hurdle. It's possible his long season may have taken its toll by the time Cheltenham came around in March. The handicapper has maintained his rating at 136 and I'm starting to wonder if he is well handicapped. However, he is a 6 going on 7 year old so there may still be improvement to come. Also, with age he may require a step-up in trip. This grey is definitely one for the notebook, he should be competitive again this year.

Arabian Heights:
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard and was rated as high as 85 on the flat. Has had one run for current connections when finishing down the field on the flat at Newmarket in May this year. He is only a 3 year old so hopefully there will be more to come in the future, it will be interesting to see where he stands in the juvenile pecking order at Barbury Castle this season.

Any questions or comments, contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown