Super Saturday Selections - 3/11/2012

What a days racing! For many the jump season proper starts tomorrow at Wetherby for the Charlie Hall, but we are spoilt with a superb card at Ascot for the United House Gold Cup playing a role which is far from supportive! The icing on the cake comes in the evening when the Breeders Cup sparks into life where the European raid looks to be strong once again!

However on a day where the quality of racing is so high, I am finding hard to get really stuck into my selections this week. This is probably due to my selections having no value in their price.

Wetherby:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - Overturn  Is Simonsig A Banker Or A Blowout
Many of you readers will be aware that I have been a supporter of Overturn for a long time. Those who read my blog about Simonsig being an Arkle banker will know that I believe Overturn to be Simonsigs greatest danger next March, if he transfers his hurdles form to fences of course. Therefore, I can't see him getting beat tomorrow unless he tips up. The race isn't the strongest and there should be nothing in his league. His price will be very very small, but I believe he will justify it and he's my banker of the day. May lack imagination but the return is as near a penalty kick as you're going to get. I've noticed this morning he is a non-runner, sorry to have wasted you're time!

Smad Place

2:50 - 3 Mile Hurdle
Selection - Smad Place
This was another obvious choice for me. This grey is still a young horse who had a brilliant season last year, which culminated in a 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle. That represents the best form that any of these bring to the table, more importantly he should still be on the upgrade as he is only 5. That is more that can be said about the others! Tidal Bay and Fair Along have seen better days now, although I think Tidal Bay could be the one to upset the party if he has a going day, but that's a big if! Restless Harry and Crack Away Jack simply have been proven not to be good enough and look a little way behind Smad Place. Finally, Cape Tribulation had a fantastic end to his season last year when winning at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he's going to have to improve on that to compete here. All in all, you would expect Smad Place to build on what he did last year and if he has, he will be too good for these. I think 15/8 is a stonking bet!

3:25 - Charlie Hall Chase
Selection - Planet Sound (at the prices)
If Planet Of Sound recaptures the form he showed first time out in the Hennessy last year he will go very very close. He will be carrying my money at 5/1. Whereas 5/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a ridiculous price. I looked at him earlier on in the week and umed and erred about backing him at 5/2, let alone 5/4! I didn't think 5/2 was value anyway. He should go well tomorrow and is the most likely winner, but at the prices I'm leaving him alone. Paul Nicholls rates him as his best 3 mile chaser this year, but has stated that he needs to mature to be a serious Gold Cup contender, he thinks 2014 will be the chestnuts year. Silviniaco Conti looks to have a lot in his favour. Master Of The Hall could be a danger, he has one first time out the last two years and Nicky Henderson has an astonishingly good record of bringing horses back after a break. My only worry is if he will be good enough to concede the weight. Time For Rupert could also be a danger, Paul Webber thought he never quite had him right last year but he still ran well, shown by his 5th place finish in the Gold Cup. He was 2nd in this race last year and it wouldn't be a surprise if he goes one better this year. As for the others, Midnight Chase is surely too old now and may find a horse on the upgrade such as Silviniaco Conti too strong and Wayward Prince is trained by John Parrotts wife...

Ascot

1:25 - 2 Mile 3 Furlong Beginners Chase
Selection - Hadrian's Approach
This race looks a bit of a two horse affair. I have selected Hadrian's Approach because I know Nicky Henderson has been a big fan of this horse since the day he arrived at the yard. Although he is relatively inexperienced, he has winning form around Ascot. However he was probably held when he fell 2 out on his last start at the track. I'm not too worried about his lack of jumping experience, he has already won a point to point and Barry Geraghty has said he's been sharp when schooling at home in his Atheraces blog this week. I think he was given a break after he fell last time out to allow him to mature, as he looked like a bit of a baby last year. He just shades it over Rolling Aces, who ran well at Cheltenham last month without quite getting up the hill. At the bottom of the hill he was travelling as well as any, but he couldn't quite go with the leaders. That was a hurdle and it will have sharpened him up for his chasing debut here, however he also has some chasing experience because he was a point to point winner. This race is shorter in trip by 2 furlongs than Cheltenham which may help him, but to be honest I'm really clutching at straws here because there really isn't much between him and Hadrian's Approach.

2:00 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - My Tent Or Yours
My Tent Or Yours is a very exciting novice hurdler this year and is a horse I'm very keen on. I find it interesting J P McManus has snapped him up over the summer, although I must admit I would rather have Geraghty on his back than McCoy. Geraghty was eager to stress that My Tent Or Yours was schooling well at home in his Atheraces blog, he was a good bumper horse last year and got very close to subsequent Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One at Aintree last spring. All things considered, I think he should go well. I think his biggest danger will come from Chiberta King. This resident of Andrew Balding's stable looks a very interesting recruit to the national hunt scene. He was competing in the top class staying races on the flat, against the top class horses. Rated as high as 108 on the flat, he was certainly no mug! My only worry is that these horses who were good on the flat don't always transfer their talent to hurdles immediately, they normally take some time to get their act together. Consequently, My Tent Or Yours shades it.

Ile De Re Looks To Have  Strong Claims

2:35 - 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ile De Re
I have already backed him at 4/1 and I am extremely happy! Whilst writing  he his currently 11/4 and I can only see his price contracting further. His last run at Ascot on Champions Day was relatively disappointing, but I always thought he would struggle in that company. However, I can't help but feel he wasn't given the hardest time once he was beaten and consequently the run shouldn't have taken too much out of him. Therefore I think the run should have put him bang on for this race, and off a mark of 123, he could be the best handicapped horse I have seen since Hunt Ball! 4/1 could be an absolutely massive price! I fancy him strongly. The opposition is strong though, it's a very competitive race! War Singer looks unexposed, but I am put off by how David Pipe's horses are going at the moment. I've seen a few running the odd stinker recently, although you would imagine it's the calm before the storm at the Open Meeting in 2 weeks time! I believe Raya Star to be handicapped to the hill and this is a fitness building exercise before he embarks on a novice chasing campaign, although Alan King couldn't be in better form! Changing The Guard has ran so consistently in lower class races and this step up should find him out unfortunately and I'm just not a big It's A Gimme fan. Cape Express has been raised 11 pounds in the weights since last weeks win at Aintree, he won impressively and I think he may be able to overcome the rise. He looks to be the main danger along with Claret Cloak from the Emma Lavelle yard. He brings solid form into the race when he finished within 2 lengths of smart bumper horse Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury and has also got the better of opponent War Singer in the past, whilst also being too strong for Bold Henry who recently ran very well to be a close 2nd to the smart Paul Nicholls chaser Rebel Rebellion. I think there is definitely more to come.

3:10 - United House Gold Cup
Selection - Baile Anrai e/w (If I had to have a bet)
I don't really fancy any of these to be honest. I like Baile Anrai because he is in one of my ten to follows, but I don't have much confidence. I don't like backing horses out of the handicap, especially when they're 7 pounds out! It's a bit of a sentimental bet. The opposition look to have strength in depth, but not in massive quality. I don't like Ace High because Victor Dartnell is in terrible form, I think Alfie Spinner needs further and Duke Of Lucca needs better ground. On the flip side, the ground needs to be juicier for Cannington Brook and I have doubts if Poquelin really wants 3 miles. Tullamore Dew went off the boil towards the end of last year and he will have to recapture his old form to stand a chance here, history tells us he also tends to need a run to sharpen him up. If I had to have a win bet it would be Join Together, the stable are in good form and he tends to run his best races at the beginning of the year. In terms of a win bet, he shades just over Roberto Goldback whose transfer to England is intriguing, particularly because he prefers good ground which he is more likely to get in this country.

Other horses I will be backing on the day:
Criqtonic
Brick Red
Baby Shine
Jetnova
Bog Warrior
Joncol

The Horse Racing Blog Ten REALLY Dark Horses To Follow National Hunt Season 2012/2013

In this post I will look to inform you about horses I feel have properly gone under the radar for the coming season. I think they could cause a splash at some point this winter and I hope they can all win us a few quid!

1. Broadbackbob

Highly talented novice hurdler last year who was thought of as a serious 2 mile 5 furlong Neptune Novice Hurdle contender. Bought from a small Irish trainer at the beginning of last year after a 6th place finish in the Aintree Champion Bumper the previous Spring, Broadbackbob started life in England with two very easy victories. His first was at Ascot in November over 2 miles where he stayed on better than subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes to beat him by a comfortable length. Highly rated Paul Nicholls novice hurdler Ted Spread was back in 4th. His second came at Newbury in December. He sauntered home to destroy the opposition by 11 lengths over 2 miles 3 furlongs defeating promising hurdlers Polisky and Carrigmorna King. Carrigmorna King was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund novice hurdle final at Sandown the last Saturday before the Festival later in the season. His next target was the Neptune Novices Hurdle Trial on Festival Trials day at Cheltenham in January. Going off a short priced favourite at 13-8 he was unlucky to finish second. Having travelled into the race like the winner he jumped the last in front and stumbled badly on landing losing momentum. Batonnier was able to pick up the pieces and charge up the finishing hill to best effect to defeat Broadbackbob by 3 lengths. It was later revealed that Broadbackbob had chipped a hock while racing at Cheltenham and that would go some way to explaining why he hung left the whole way up the run-in that day. Finishing a 3 length second was a pretty good effort with all things considered. Unfortunately, the injury meant he was out for the season. If he had made his target at the Festival I'm convinced he wouldn't have sniffed Simonsig, but think he would have probably been placed. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter. I think he is a welcome recruit to the novice chase ranks and he could feature in many of the main races this season. He is my idea of the the 2 mile 5 furlong Jewson Novice Chase winner currently, but I would expect that 2 1/2 miles is about as far he would want to go. He has shown he has plenty of speed to win races over 2 miles so dropping back to the shortest trip is also an option. However, Nicky Henderson is potentially double handed in those ranks with Simonsig and Tetlami maybe going novice chasing too this year. I would like to think he is more than good enough to mix it with the very best novice chasers this season without maybe being quite good enough to take on the Simonsigs of this world.

2. Hollow Tree

Brave, tough, game, never give up-er. All words to describe a horse that could take up the mantle of being the new 'Lough Derg'. Hollow Tree was a new recruit off the flat to Donald McCain last year and proved not to be the most talented of last years juveniles, but Jesus he was genuine in defeat. Whatever was asked of him he duly did his best and you couldn't help but admire the horse! He was progressive last year. After running a solid enough race in defeat behind Hinterland at the Open Meeting in November, he went and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Chepstow. Behind him in 2nd that day was subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame. His next task was a bit more difficult when competing in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Festival Trials Day. In hindsight, the race had massive strength in depth with classy animals such as Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix all entered. Once again Hollow Tree ran a really solid race to finish third beaten 3 1/2 lengths. In the actual event two months later Hollow Tree briefly lead as they turned for home after squeezing up the inside of Sadlers Risk. As was the case all year the better horses had another gear and accelerated past him but he plugged on for 7th beaten a total of 10 lengths. I would imagine handicapping will be his game next year. He currently has a rating of 142. I wouldn't be surprised if he is running off a winnable mark. Sadlers Risk who beat him 3/4 length at Cheltenham is rated 148. I don't think he is 6 pounds better than Hollow Tree, he wasn't even a length better than him in the Triumph Hurdle.

3. Teelin Star

I don't know much about this horse. However, I do know he was seriously hot property in the Irish point to point ranks. In the Champion Point to Point Bumper at the Fairyhouse Festival, where previous winners include Simonsig and Last Instalment, he was sent off a red hot favourite at odds of 8-11. The market confidence came after two victories earlier in the season which he had won by a distance and they sounded very very impressive. He was all the rage going into the race at Fairyhouse but wasn't in the shake up. After the amount of market confidence, he flopped horrendously and was beaten 20 lengths into 8th. He got his career back on track with a win at the Listowel Festival the other day. He made all and was never challenged. He wasn't a runaway winner, but he was a very easy 3 length winner from Sam Da Vinci. This horse is a real unknown quantity this year. What he's capable of I don't know. He seems to be a 2 1/2 mile horse but I wouldn't be surprised if he is stepped up to 3 miles, he obviously has winning form in point to points over 3 miles. He has been ridden from the front in his two starts under rules proper and this tells me he stays well. Whether he will stick to bumpers or go novice hurdling is another question I don't know the answer too. The verdict: Keep an eye out. Those guys in the point to point fields are no mugs and know what they're talking about!

4. Baile Anrai

Baile Anrai was a progressive novice chaser last season who I think may have a big handicap win in him at some point this season . Last year he started off as a novice hurdler, his first outing of the season finishing a 'best of the rest' 2nd behind Fingal Bay in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow in October. A decision to head novice chasing was probably made before the season started, his run at Chepstow was designed to blow the cobwebs away and get him race fit for the season. His debut over fences was in the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices Chase at Wincanton. It was a really tough ask and he was about 20 lengths off the pace when he fell at the 4th last, the winner Silviniaco Conti progressed to be a really smart staying novice chaser later in the year. His second and third attempts over fences where much easier tasks and produced two pretty comprehensive victories around Towcester and Leicester. winning by a combined total of 20 lengths. He was then stepped up in class again to renew rivalries with Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown Novice Chase over 3 miles at Ascot. The race was won by Invictus with RSA winner Bob's Worth back in 2nd, Silviniaco Conti was further down the field in 4th. However although Baile Anrai fell at the 4th last, he was right on the coat tails of the main pack, was going well enough and I don't think he would have been out of the picture if he had stood up. In his next run at the Festival in the JLT Speciality 3m handicap chase he ran no sort of race and was a distant 11th beaten 38 lengths. I think the big crowds and the whole occasion in general got to him as he seemed quite buzzy beforehand and he was probably beaten before he set off. Put a line through that run. He finished the season with a very convincing win in a Market Rasen novice chase by 24 lengths, though it wasn't much of a contest. I would imagine he will go handicapping this season. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think he is well in off that mark. At the age of 8 going on 9 I think he has an advantage over other second season chasers as he is probably more mature and this may help him in the hustly bustly handicaps this winter.

5. Wingtips

In the 2012 Triumph hurdle everybody saw the main protagonists at the head of affairs. Countrywide Flame, Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Hisabaat. But who can name me the horse that finished 5th off the top of their head? The answer is Wingtips. He was an Irish raider trained by Tony Martin at a price of 100-1. While the horses we have all taken notice of headed to Aintree and Punchestown to frank the form. The Punchestown renewal had a certain Wingtips finishing 3rd at 10-1, again running about up to form. Wingtips didn't win a race last year and can still claim his novice status. With another years maturity both physically and mentally Wingtips could be in a position of strength when taking on younger horses with a years experience in the locker. I dont know what Tony Martin has planned for his horse this year. He has a rating of 138, which will mean he will carry weights towards the top end of the handicaps. Hisabaat is a horse that has beaten him twice and is only rated 5 pounds higher at 143, therefore I don't consider him to be well handicapped.This tells me that another year novice hurdling could be on the cards. However, we have seen Tony Martin line up a big handicap win before, with the likes of Dun Doire and Xenophon at the Cheltenham Festival for example. If anyone knows how to find a handicap snip, Tony Martin is at the top of the list. But is Wingtips too highly rated? He may have to lose before he can win next year.

6. Rigidity

Rigidity - Pictured Centre

I think this horse is underrated. He ran some very good races in the most competitive 2 mile handicap hurdles of the year last season. He was second to Raya Star in the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot, jumping the last near enough in front, Raya Star beat him only half a length. He was then 8th in the Betfair Hurdle behind Zarkandar at Newbury in February. He was bang there at the third last and was just starting to fade at the second last when Darlan's crashing fall severely hampered him and ended all chances of victory. I think he did well to plug on and finish 8th in the end. A stinker in the Martin Pipe at the Festival followed, I don't know why, but he was so bad it was untrue. Something can't have been right. Anyway, I don't think this horse is good enough to be winning Betfair Hurdles and so on, but I do think he may be good enough to win a competitive handicap somewhere else in the season over 2 miles or maybe 2 1/2 miles. His last run at Cheltenham was over 2 1/2 miles and I think this may be his ideal trip as he has been slightly outpaced when the race has hotted up in the 2 mile handicap hurdles. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think off that mark, bearing in mind he still only 5, there is still improvement to come.

7. Grandouet

Just before I start, I have to admit it pains me to reveal my opinion on Grandouet. This is due to my judgement agreeing with one of my racing comrades. I think this is the first time we have seen eye to eye on anything to do with horses, basically because he is a blind follower of the Nicky Henderson yard (although having seen him play cricket, you would understand why he would need to do it blindly!) I also resent the success he had at the Festival last year, but wasn't surprised he wasn't able to tip a winner that wasn't trained by his 'man crush' Mr Henderson. I believe Grandouet to be the forgotten horse of the upcoming national hunt season. He was extremely unlucky to fall at the second last at Wincanton when running all over Celestial Halo in early November last year. Reappearing in an intermediate hurdle at Haydock two weeks later he won doing handstands, pulling effortlessly clear of Marsh Warbler and Rigidity to win by 8 lengths. He was then stepped up in class to compete in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December, a well known Champion Hurdle trial. There was a question mark over the geldings ability to get up the stiff finishing hill at Cheltenham after he appeared to fade away in the Triumph Hurdle the previous March. That was positively swept away with a crushing win when he powered away up the hill to get the better of subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Overturn by 4 lengths. The Champion Hurdle proved that fom to be pretty strong. However, I find it debatable how strong it is when you look at the bigger picture. Was this years Champion Hurdle result a true piece of form? It could be argued that it is, but I don't think Rock On Ruby is 5 1/2 lengths better than Hurricane Fly - so I feel the form is quite muddling. Nonetheless, regardless of how good Overturn is, Grandouet could only beat what was put in front of him. The injury he picked up last year to prevent him competing in the Champion Hurdle was obviously very serious. Nicky Henderson was quoted as saying at his owners open day that: 'there had been some scary moments'. Thankfully, it appears he has made a full recovery and if he recaptures the form he was in last year, I see no reason why he can't be a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle crown in 2013.

8. Comeonginger

If Tistory is the highest rated novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard for this upcoming season, Comeonginger fills that position at Paul Nicholl's stables. Owned by Paul Barber, he has won two point to points, never coming off the bridle in the second, his jockey described his win as 'an exercise gallop'. He is a full brother to ill-fated Cheltenham Festival winner Brindisi Breeze. That's about as much as I can tell you to be honest! He's certainly an exciting novice hurdler for the 2012/2013 season.

9. Oscara Dara

Oscara Dara is one of the horses who changed stables after Alan Fleming migrated to Ireland. He was moved to Nicky Henderson's yard and caused a bit of a splash. His last run for Fleming was a second place finish in a relatively hot bumper behind his current stable mate Mono Man. Following a set-back, his debut for Henderson was delayed for just over a year, reappearing at Sandown on the best day of the year (9th March is my birthday) he won very impressively by 20 lengths. For his next task he was stepped up in trip to tackle the best novice hurdlers around last year at the Aintree Festival, where he finished 4th behind stable mates Darlan and Captain Conan. Still relatively fresh he was sent straight to Punchestown for a 2 mile novice hurdle. Sent off a short priced 11-8 favourite he stayed on well to assert on the run-in to score by 3 1/2 lengths. Henderson said on his owners open day that the horse had matured well over the summer, he predicted that he would be much improved this year. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter, behind the stables most promising novices Simonsig and Captain Conan, he probably plays third fiddle. He has plenty of pace but I think a step up in trip will benefit him, he should be a smashing 2 1/2 miler. Nicky Henderson was very positive at his open day: 'If everything goes to plan, he's a very serious prospect'.

10. Samain

Another horse I can't tell you much about I'm afraid! He's won 3 bumpers in Ireland since he joined Willie Mullins after being purchased by Gigginstown Stud. He was a hot prospect for the Champion Bumper the year before last before he picked up an injury. The injury kept him off the track throughout last year but he's expected to return this winter. He's now 6 going on 7 so he will be one of the older horses going novice hurdling this year. A wiser head and advanced physical maturity should help him when competing against his less experienced rivals. He looks like a chaser in the making but whether he will head straight novice chasing this year and skip novice hurdling I don't know. In his bumpers the gelding out-stayed his rivals. He never accelerated away from them to be visually impressive, but was always in total command at the winning post. I just hope his injury wasn't so severe that he will never be able to fulfil his potential.