Cheltenham International Meeting - Friday 14th December

For the first time this season, Cheltenham will hold a fixture where I'm not in attendance. Although I would love to be there, I'm looking forward to watching from the comfort of my living room, in the warmth with an endless supply of hot beverages throughout the day.

Cheltenham

12:15 - Shloer Novices Chase

Of the 7 runners, you could make a case for at least 5 of these. A Nicky Henderson novice chaser is always respected and in Broadbackbob he saddles a horse with lofty expectations, he is considered a real RSA type (can be found as short as 14/1 with Skybet) by his handler and his smooth debut victory at Plumpton was impressive. Last year the Neptune was target but a chipped hock kept him off the track in the spring, missing that engagement may have been a blessing in disguise bearing in mind how his stablemate Simonsig turned the contest into a procession. He has the strongest appeal of these and is my idea of the most likely winner, but 6/5 is keeping me away, that's plenty short enough. Super Duty had good form in novice hurdles last year, most noticeably when 2nd to Simonsig at Aintree. A bad mistake 2 out scuppered his chances of victory although Simonsig was still hard on the bridle whilst upsides, it's unlikely he would won anyway. His novice chasing campaign started with a nice pipe opener at Carlisle, on all form he should of won but the trip was on the sharp side and his second placed finish probably wasn't the worst effort. That effort set him up for a much improved run at Haydock last time out. Poungach had his measure that day and although they pulled 28 lengths clear of useful horses such as Gullinbursti and Knock A Hand, it may be flattering as the ground was soft and would provide an explanation to why they finished so strung out. On that line of form he has a chance but others appeal more at the prices, 11/4 is a bit short for what he has achieved so far.

Hildisvini (Orange) - He looks to be a horse going in the right direction and merits a step up in class

Hildisvini has racked up a two timer over fences so far this season, subsequently he must give weight away to all his rivals here. Both victories have come at Huntingdon, with Well Regarded from the Emma Lavelle stable twice 2nd, Forgotten Gold was also 3rd. He will need to step up to compete here, but he is a horse going in the right direction and has merited a step up in class. We will find out a lot more about him and at the prices, he presents the best value to me at 7/1 generally. Rebel Rebellion will be back in his comfort zone stepping back up to 2 and a half miles after being outpaced behind Captain Conan here last month over 2, his victory at Exeter over 2 and a half was quite taking considering he led from start to finish. On that basis he may be hard to pass here, but the 2nd and 3rd haven't franked the form since and there's every chance he will be outclassed. Others are preferred. Forgotten Gold's win over 3 miles at Aintree last time out has worked out ok, First Fandango was behind him that day and has won since, but it isn't the strongest of form and coming back to 2 and a half here isn't ideal, he appeared to better the further he went at Aintree. Decent Cheltenham form is in the book but he's in a similar boat to Rebel Rebellion, I don't think he will be good enough for this.

Advice - Hildisvini - 1pt Win @8/1 Paddy Power

1:20 - CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Handicap Hurdle

Dark Lover is sure to be popular after his course and distance win in October and he was far from disgraced last month when stepping up in class in the Racing Post hurdle, he was only beaten 8 lengths. This is more similar to the October contest and if he can repeat his last two efforts, he stands a very good chance. The form is in the book and siding against the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh duo hasn't been advisable this season. 9/2 isn't the best value but in my opinion isn't the worst either. Strong claims. Turn Over Sivola was turned over when odds on on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton but then put the record straight at Plumpton last month with a 7 length victory when odds on once again. He has only been raised a pound for that victory and may have something in hand, but this is tougher and I personally think he has found his level. Bold Chief is a lightly raced 7 year old who is open to further improvement, he has claims in the back of his 2nd here in April behind Captain Sunshine. He reappeared at Kempton when he weakened tamely and was eventually pulled up, he also comes back in trip here which could be to his advantage, but there is enough to put me off. Tom Du Lys and Top Of The Range both make their seasonal bows for Nicky Henderson and have claims, the formers first run for the trainer last year came at Sandown on desperate ground, although he is French bred a return to a sounder surface here may assist. Nampour is likely to go from the front and has a chance but others are preferred whilst Dan Breen still has a win in him somewhere but this is competitive and he's more exposed than others. A tentative vote goes to Falcarragh. Tim Vaughan has had him on the go throughout the summer but his consistency is admirable and shows no sign of relenting. 4th in a 4 year old hurdle won by the talented Court Minstrel here in October was a good effort and he followed this up with a solid 3rd here again in November behind Ifandbutwhynot, the 2nd has won since. This looks a competitive contest once again and he has gone up 3lb for his last effort, but he is certain to run his race and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Falcarragh - 1pt EW @Bet365

1:55 - Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase

Midnight Chase is high enough in the handicap but returns to his favourite track for a race he has won before, 4/1 is a tad short but doesn't lack value.

I think you've got to look atwhich horses are using this race as a stepping stone to the Welsh National later in the month, consequently s few won't want to be showing there hands too early here. Bradley was a bit of an unlucky loser here last month when being nabbed by a 25/1 shot in ground that was testing, a drop back in 2 furlongs probably isn't ideal considering he was outpaced over 3 miles here in October. He can be found as short as 10/1 for the Welsh National but I don't know which race Fergal O'Brien is targeting, this race is worth £25,000 so if this is the target he does have strong claims. Quartz De Thaix is a much improved horse this year, Venetia Williams may have finally got the bottom of him as stamina tests have brought out the best in him. Chepstow is his target so it's unlikely he will want to play his hand here. Master Overseer has Chepstow on his radar and must improve after what was a dire run at Haydock last time out, whilst Billie Magern needs to put some disappointing efforts behind him. Becauseicouldntsee has a couple of 2nd placed finishes at the Festival to his name, he prefers the better ground he finds outside of Ireland but he runs off a career high mark of 145 and probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race, but wouldn't be without a chance. Saint Are is a bit of an Aintree specialist and prefers a flat track, can't help but feel this is a bit of an after thought following an early exit from the Hennessy 2 weeks ago. Planet Of Sound is gradually falling down the handicap and is off a workable mark of 152 here, he won the Haldon Gold Cup of this mark 3 years ago. His seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was a tame effort which is off-putting and the Hobbs team aren't in the best from, it's enough to make me look elsewhere. Which leaves course specialist Midnight Chase who looks to be handicapped to the hill off a mark of 160, but doesn't know how to run a bad race. He was ahead of Planet Of Sound in the Charlie Hall, although he ran in snatches it was an good effort considering both the 1st and 2nd have won since. This is a weaker contest, back at his favourite track in a race he has won before.

Advice - Midnight Chase - 3pt Win @4/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh.

@JoshRWDown