The King George Preview 2012

Kauto Star - Following the star
on boxing day is no longer the norm

The mid-season highlight of the National Hunt season is fast approaching and for the first time in 6 years, the legendary figure of Kauto Star, who won 5 of the last 6 renewals, will not be present due to retirement. Without the horse who has won more King George's than anyone else, the race has suddenly become a much more open affair, also the recent dominance of second season chasers adds even more spice to the mix. Overall, on paper, the 2012 King George VI chase has all the makings of a blockbuster.



Been there. Done it. Got the t-shirt.

Due to Kauto Star's recent dominance, only one previous winner lines up in the race, that horse is 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run. On route to that momentous triumph in March, a rearranged visit to Kempton in January for the King George was a significant stepping stone. Kauto Star's one and only defeat in the contest came at the hands of Long Run, although the recently retired gelding wasn't at his best that day, Long Run was a seriously impressive winner. At the tender age of 6, his smooth 12 length success earned him an official rating of 179 and also elevated him to the head of the Gold Cup market. On pure ratings, his performance in the Gold Cup was 3lbs better than Kempton at 182. The 3 mile staying division was his dominate for years to come. How things have gone in the opposite direction, he has never matched or eclipsed that 182 rating in his next 5 efforts. There have been excuses, a new course record at Newbury in the Denman Chase and a dethroning in the Gold Cup since. On the day he broke the course record Burton Port was close up but didn't frank the form in the Gold Cup or Bowl at Aintree afterwards, therefore I feel the solidity of the form is questionable. A defeat first time out this year to the improving Silviniaco Conti was probably a bit unlucky, the race wasn't run to suit and it cost him. How many more chances am I willing to give him? Plenty. How many more chances am I willing to give his jockey? Very few. I know this is a bit on a contentious issue, but I feel the reason he gets beat is Sam Waley-Cohen. He's a good jockey, but he's an amateur jockey, he can't claim his 5lb in Grade 1's which means Long Run has got to be at least 5lb better than his opponents (arguably more against the likes of Walsh, Geraghty and McCoy, who are another 5lb better than your average jockey). I don't think Long Run is 10lb better than anything they ride! Do I blame Long Runs owner Robert Waley-Cohen for wanting his son to ride the horse? Absolutely not, it's a family horse so why wouldn't his son ride it? My dad would do the same. The horse may have peaked early like so many French breds to scale the heights he did in 2011, but for the reasons explained above, I can't be having him.

Need to know if you stay 3 miles? All roads lead to Kempton.

In terms of impressive performances so far this season, don't look too far past Cue Card's demolition job in the Haldon Gold Cup. His 26 length win over 2 mile 2 furlongs at Exeter has earn't him quotes of biggest 9/2 for this and he is strongly fancied by his handler Colin Tizzard to run a huge race. This will be his first attempt at 3 miles and it appears he will relish the step up in trip. He has a high cruising speed but is also a strong galloper, racing prominently here using those qualities gives him strong claims. As we know top class horses over shorter distances have had success in the King George, therefore I don't think he will be far away. A worry is he goes best fresh, also he may not be as classy as other horses making the step-up in trip, we have the reigning Queen Mother and Ryanair winners in the race.

2nd in 2010 and winner of the Ryanair last year, Riverside Theatre has strong claims that can't be ignored. The Ryanair was an odd performance, although he won, he was never travelling and Barry Geraghty gave him a great ride. It looked like he could never quite go the pace, Geraghty was niggling along from a long way out, but he rallied gamely to stay on up the hill to nail Medermit close home. He may have bounced slightly after his comeback win at Ascot in February. The Ryanair win proved to me he stays 3 miles. A strongly run Ryanair round a stiff track like Cheltenham wouldn't be to dissimilar to 3 miles around Kempton. He was rode to stay 3 miles in 2010, I feel he is a better horse now who truly stay 3 miles and can be ridden to win the race. However, the added plus is that he has the pace to win over a shorter distance which is crucial around a speed track like Kempton. On that basis he sways into favour. He is a solid bet an goes well mad fresh, connections have waited to run here first time out. One worry is his jockey, Geraghty will have the choice of him and Finians Rainbow and if he deserts Riverside Theatre, a winning combination will be broken which is far from ideal.

Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have long been saying that Finians Rainbow would be better suited by trip. As a 2 mile novice chaser he was a bit of tearaway who pulled hard, consequently he had to be allowed to go from the front. Last year he matured and learnt to settle, this has made him more tactically versatile, his reward was a win in the Queen Mother last spring, before making the step-up in trip to win the Melling Chase at Aintree really impressively. That has merited him to step-up further to compete here. Connections are taking a step into the unknown regarding his stamina, he appeared to be better for further at Aintree and there is every possibility that may be the case here too. Put a line through his seasonal reappearance, jockey said he hated the heavy ground and nothing found to be a miss afterwards, it should have him spot on for this. In terms of classy animals Finians Rainbow ranks highly and will have the speed to compete around Kempton. Main worries include: whether he will stay, if the ground comes up heavy and which one of the Henderson horses Geraghty rides - he was key to the success Finains Rainbow and Riverside Theatre had last year.

Sizing Europe, in my mind, is undoubtedly the classiest horse in this race. If he comes across from the Ireland, he stands a fantastic chance. Surely if his owners want to stay 3 miles, and be successful over 3 miles, Kempton is ideal? 3 miles around a speed track would surely be perfect? Rather than 3 miles in testing ground in Ireland. It is looking increasingly likely he is going to stay in Ireland to run in the Paddy Power chase over Christmas, I find it disappointing. He is 10 going on 11 and probably won't get many more opportunities to have a crack at the King George. It is also a worry if the ground turns testing. You can back him 'with a run' with Paddy Power at 6/1 which isn't the worst bet, although it doesn't contain abundances of value.

Whose got a point to prove?

Grands Crus has been a huge disappointment on his last 2 outings, first in the RSA where his blood was apparently wrong and more recently, when pulled up in last months Paddy Power. The grey has undergone a breathing operation since which is threatening his participation here. I was at Cheltenham that day, after the race an announcement came over the tanoy after the Paddy Power that said David Pipe had been called to the stewards room to explain his grey's effort, Mr Pipe responded he couldn't provide an answer. If a breathing operation was needed, Tom Scudamore would have surely heard him make a noise, but it doesn't appear he did and therefore I believe it is a stab in the dark to get his career back on track. There is a possibility it could make all the difference and Grands Crus returns to the horse of old, recapturing the form that saw him win the Feltham in devastating style last year. If he does, he will be very competitive. However, the doubt over his participation and his recent lack of form is enough to make me look elsewhere.

The Kauto name will once again be represented when Kauto Star's half-brother, Kauto Stone, lines up for the deadly Paul Nicholls. The stable were dealt a very cruel blow when Paddy Power winner Al Ferof was rule out with a tendon injury on the 17th December, two days after Cristal Bonus fatally broke his pelvis at Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh now takes the ride on Kauto Stone, who must prove he can retain a strong level of form throughout the season. Last season started with a bang when winning the Ladbroke chase at Down Royal over 2 1/2 miles, before dropping back in trip to finish a respectable 2nd to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek the following month. Thereafter, his form completely tailed off, his next 3 outings saw form figures of 7F7. Paul Nicholls has stated he has got to grips with how to train him this year and feels he is a better horse for it. On the form of his winning return to Down Royal in the 3 mile JN Wine Champion Chase, it's feasible he's got to the bottom of him. If he can retain the level of form that saw him win at Down Royal last month, he's in with a chance if the ground is soft but others are preferred.

Captain Chris carries the tag 'the best horse Richard Johnson has ever ridden', which when you consider Johnson has ridden Looks Like Trouble to a Gold Cup success, Flagship Uberalles to a Queen Mother victory and won a Champion Hurdle on Rooster Booster, its a hefty accolade to carry. Since winning the Arkle in 2011, the wheels have come off slightly. He was unlucky at Exeter, but ran creditably to finish 3rd here last year and then again when 4th in the Ryanair. This season has started much better than last with a win at Ascot in the Amlin, beating runaway Old Roan winner For Non Stop and Finians Rainbow who re-opposes here. He needs to go right handed and will act on most ground, he has claims but others are preferred more. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if he was competitive but I'm not convinced the Hobbs horses are running to there best at the moment.

Any value at the prices?

Hunt Ball was much shorter than he currently is before his run in the Paddy Power. A flat track over 3 miles will suit and he showed he could compete in a similar contest when 3rd in the Bowl at Aintree, which wasn't bad considering he was thought to be over the top by his trainer Keiran Burke. It would be a fairytale if he won after his meteoric rise in the weights last year, I think it's unlikely he will win but I do think he has a chance of being placed, 33/1 is worth a little E/1 wager in my opinion. Soft ground would be a worry though.

Champion Court is in a similar boat to Hunt Ball. So often the bridesmaid of novice chases last year, that form isn't looking too bad now after the recent dominance of second season chasers this season. Martin Keighley was very pleased with his seasonal reappearance at Ascot which saw his first run on heavy ground, he would of won if Evan Williams hadn't performed a master stroke to to bring the extremely well handicapped Williams Wishes back off a 600 day break. His best form has come at Cheltenham where he can dominate from the front over 2 1/2 miles, whether he can transfer that form to a flat track, going a different way round and over an extra half mile is a worry. Like Hunt Ball, he is worth a little E/W wager at 33/1 bearing in mind how solid his form in novice chases was last year.

Advice
Riverside Theatre 3pt Win - @6/1 Ladbrokes
Sizing Europe 1pt Win - @6/1 'With a run' Paddy Power
Hunt Ball 0.5pt E/W - @33/1 Paddy Power (Ante-Post Bet)
Champion Court 0.5pt EW - @33/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

Hobbs Team Look To Put The Record Straight

November 1st 2011. Why do I remember the date so vividly? It was the day I failed my 1st driving test and lets just say I had a royal strop on! Particularly as I failed it on the last corner, d***! The failure was redeemed slightly when Medermit carried my money to victory in the Haldon Gold Cup, the money was suitably used to repair the fist sized hole I created in my bedroom door earlier in the day!

Anyway, getting back on track. Philip Hobbs has declared this week that Menorah and Captain Chris will be returning to Exeter for the Haldon Gold Cup next month for their seasonal reappearances. In my opinion Philip Hobbs' disappointing season began when the duo unseated Dicky Johnson at the meeting last year. Both horses looked to be well on their way to winning reappearances and having blown the cobwebs away, both would of been set-up for exciting winter campaigns. This unfortunately was not
the case.

Menorah

Menorah is probably the most inconsistent jumper of a fence I have seen, when you take how classy he was over hurdles into account. He would wing one fence making a superb shape whilst airborne, getting from one side to another as fast as any seasoned chaser there has ever been. But at the next fence he would inexplicably walk through it, tip up and leave anyone who backed him thinking: 'What the hell was that all about?'. His season culminated in a really impressive win at Aintree in the 2 1/2 mile Manifesto Novice Chase....but to be honest, he was going to get it all together eventually.  I think the slower pace of a 2 1/2 mile race assisted him as it placed his jumping under less scrutiny. With a rating of 160 it's unlikely he will be competing in handicaps this year. However the Haldon Gold Cup, which is a handicap, is definitely a winnable task for the gelding. You would imagine he will be carrying a weight near the top end (Captain Chris ran off 160 last year and carried top weight 11-10), but if he can put in a solid round of jumping he has a good chance. The 2m 2f trip should also be ideal bearing in mind the slightly slower pace will help his jumping. However, looking beyond Exeter I'm struggling to see where he can go from there. I can't see him winning a championship race, unless his jumping has improved remarkably over the summer, it will surely be to his disadvantage when travelling half a stride quicker in the better company. To be competitive I think he has got to improve his jumping as there is no doubt he is top class on his hurdles form. However, I believe that his mistakes were due to a lack of concentration as he proved he can jump effectively over the occasional fence last year. I expect to see the odd howler from Menorah again this season but with another years experience and mental maturity the gelding may just find the improvement to win the Ryanair or a race of that nature. He needs to engage his brain at every fence to do so.

Captain Chris

Captain Chris has a severe tendency to jump right. He might as well have only one eye, why does he have left eye? It's pointless, he only uses his right one. The only excuse I can think of is Richard Johnson may be discretely sticking on an eye-patch on the gelding during running. He was desperately unlucky to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by unseating Dickie boy in the Haldon Gold Cup last year, which he then followed up with a decent attempt in the King George by finishing 3rd. His next appearance was the strange one. He ran appallingly on Festival Trials Day over 3 miles when he consistently leapt right handed, sometimes at right angles, it just didn't make any sense. I remember watching a David Pipe horse called Milan Deux Mille do something similar at Kempton in 2007, like Captain Chris he basically ran down each fence from one wing to another - he still won. A better effort in the Ryanair at Cheltenham in March when travelling left handed has kept some optimism for the coming season. Exeter is right-handed which will obviously play to his advantage but like his stable mate, where can he go from there? He needs to go right handed so the King George at Kempton will probably be on the geldings agenda but he surely won't be good enough to win with new comers such as Grands Crus around in addition to the old guard such as Long Run. I'm still not entirely sure he stays 3 miles but I don't see many other options for him when also needs to go right handed. The Punchestown Gold Cup in the spring is likely to be his ideal race.

I think the winner of the Haldon Gold Cup will come from the Hobbs yard but which horse is a more difficult question to answer. I think a telling factor will be which horse Richard Johnson rides, I just hope he can stay on one of them this year! That day at Exeter hasn't exactly been kind to him when you look back at previous years. In 2006 he was jumped into by a loose horse while aboard Chilling Place causing him to unseat. Later that day he was in front on Out The Black 15 yards from the line, I think Betfair had suspended betting on the race! Unbelievably the horse slipped and Johnson was catapulted forwards and slid over the line on his tummy all alone whilst Out The Black was sprawled on the floor behind roaring him home.

Johnson sits on the deck, you wonder why you've never had a jockeys title?