World Hurdle 2013

World Hurdle 2013

Oscar Whisky heads the market at around 7/2. Two Aintree hurdle victories in consecutive years has proven he's the best hurdler over 2 1/2 miles around but does that mean he's the best 3 mile hurdler around? No, in my opinion. The Cleeve Hurdle proved to me he stays 3 miles, but not he stays 3 miles dourly. It stretches his stamina to the limit, which is a huge negative, this race is a thorough test of stamina with horses probably having to stay 3 1/2 miles to come out on top. Previous winners of the race: Big Bucks, Iris Gift, Baracouda and Inglis Drever were all dour stayers, rather than speed horses stepping up from 2 1/2 like Oscar Whisky. Nicky Henderson was convinced he wasn't right last year as he wasn't winning after 2 1/2 miles, I disagree with him, I feel he just got out-stayed up the hill having travelled well through the race. If he stayed thoroughly he would have got closer than he did last year, also he would have beaten Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's his class that has got him so close. He is a lay at 7/2.

REVE DE SIVOLA is my idea of this years winner. I have to admit after he won the Longwalk Hurdle in dismissive fashion I was still sceptical about his attitude. His chasing campaign left a lot to be desired, but to his credit the way he out-stayed Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve proved he is a real grinder and still has fire in the belly. Staying is his game, I see no reason why the form with Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve will be reversed on better ground. Although he has been impressive on soft ground this winter, I am confident he will act just as well on good ground. His record at the Festival is solid (2nd in 2010 Neptune on good to soft and 3rd in what is now the JLT handicap chase in 201, also on good to soft). Festival form is a huge plus and I can see him winning in the same fashion he has been this season. The water table is relatively high so any rain will soften the ground up to a greater extent than it has in previous years, even if it occurs we know it won't be an issue for Nick Williams charge. Richard Johnson should retain the ride having got on well with him this year and I see him as good value at 5/1 in places.

Monksland has been progressive this year, he reversed placings with Zaidpour when taking the 3 mile Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, after the latter had his measure in the Hattons Grace the previous month. Now a three time grade 2 winner, the step up to 3 miles at Leopardstown brought out some improvement and he displayed battling qualities that should see him go well here. He is a smooth traveller, slick hurdler, versatile in terms of ground and proved he handles the track when a slightly unlucky 3rd in last years Neptune Hurdle (hampered two out), all things considered he has all the makings of a big player. My worry is he is only a 6 year old and is very lightly raced, having had only 7 starts under rules I'm not sure he will be mentally or physically mature enough to compete in a contest which is historically a war of attrition. I also feel because he is lightly raced and is unexposed he is under-priced at 5/1, that's too short for a horse making only his second start over 3 miles in my eyes.

Peddlers Cross is still on the comeback trail from a disappointing chasing campaign last year. Defeat to Sam Winner in a jumpers bumper is easily excused after a ten month lay-off, however a two length beating of a horse rated 35lb inferior at Musselburgh has to go down as very disappointing. It's not an ideal preparation, although he could have been a bit rusty. If the horse of two years ago reappears he would have a chance (although the quality of his Champion Hurdle second is debatable), but that's the problem, he hasn't reproduced the form from that Champion Hurdle since. Personally, I don't think he enjoys his racing like he used to, the spark seems to have disappeared and I don't think anyone can put a finger as to why. At 10/1 he represents no value for a horse who has been out of form and carries too many question marks. Each-way claims at best.

2009 Aintree hurdle winner Solwhit is making the step up to 3 miles for the first time in his career after showing promise over 2 1/2 miles this season. He is a classy type who once went off 6/1 for a Champion Hurdle, I think he also has the stamina for 3 miles and the two in conjunction are big positives. A lack of Cheltenham form is a huge worry (only 6th in aforementioned Champion Hurdle), also this is going to be a gruelling contest where stamina will be tested to it's absolute limit, so I would have no interest in backing a horse who has never ran over 3 miles, the World Hurdle isn't won by 2 1/2 milers stepping up to 3 as a rule, the value in his price has gone.

Bog Warrior is probably the most appropriately named horse in training. All his best form has come with cut in the ground, if there was rain in the area you would fancy him at have leading claims to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles. If he reproduces the form that saw him easily dispose of Zaidpour in the Galmoy Hurdle he would have a squeak. However, two things concern me. Firstly he has never been to Cheltenham before which although it can't be assumed he won't act at the track, you would prefer some course form to be in the book. Secondly, he has done all his winning in small fields. To his credit he has won 3 times in fields sizes of 18 or bigger, but they were lower grade races, the races he has dominated at a high grade have been with field sizes of 9 or below. I would imagine this years World Hurdle will be a competitive renewal without the presence of Big Bucks, therefore I expect more will go to post than the 11 who went last year. I also feel if he wasn't a Giggenstown horse he would be a bigger than 10/1, all in all there is enough to persuade me to look elsewhere.

Cheltenham Festival specialist Get Me Out Of Here looks to go one better than the three seconds at the previous three festivals. Better ground will be key and you can't fault his Cheltenham record, but like Solwhit, he has never run over three miles, for the same reason it makes him easily opposable. He has about 10lb to find on official ratings (over 2 1/2 miles), has no form in grade 1's outside of novice company and overall has enough on his plate. Each-way claims at best but 12/1 isn't any value. You would be betting with your heart and not my head.

The form of SMAD PLACE has been a concern this year, for whatever reason he hasn't performed to the level of last year that saw that saw him put up a career best to finish 3rd in last years World Hurdle. The grey was easily swept aside at Wetherby on his reappearance by Tidal Bay, having travelled and jumped well he found nothing off the bridle, which was as much of a mystery to his trainer Alan King as anyone. In hindsight, although Reve De Sivola absolutely thumped him in the Longwalk, it wasn't the worst effort on ground which was far too soft for his liking, Reve De Sivola has since elevated himself to the head of this market. He was a staying on 3rd last year, that stamina should see him well in a race littered with suspect stayers and it would be fair to say if he reproduces the form of last years third, when he ran to 161, he wouldn't be far away and 16/1 he is the best each-way value in the race.

Others of note. Wonderful Charm is highly thought of at home by Paul Nicholls but is coming back off a 138 lay-off, he has had a wind operation which is a positive, but no five year old has ever won the World Hurdle and he is more likely to go for the Coral Cup, where he is ante-post favourite. Fiveforthree is coming back off a 728 day lay-off and will have to retain all of his old ability to be competitive here, that can't guaranteed after injury and 33/1 is too short all things considered. Zaidpour has been slightly disappointing this year having been turned over 3 times at prices smaller than 2/1, he has a bit to prove and has to have cut in the ground. Stable mate So Young was his conqueror at Gowran Park last time out and is another who wants dig in the ground. It's disappointing he hasn't progressed since finishing third in the 2011 Neptune Hurdle. Trustan Times did well to take the valuable fixed brush hurdle a Haydock in November, but looked outclassed in the Longwalk on his only start in this grade and has about 17lb to find on official ratings. Celestial Halo is the not the force of old and has struggled in recent times, he is an admirable horse but I doubt he's good enough.

Overall, the omission of Big Bucks has attracted many horses that probably wouldn't being trying their luck if the four time champion was present. Many of these are stepping up from 2 1/2 miles and are attempting three miles for the first time, this will be an dour test of stamina (as all staying races are at the festival) and you must see out the trip well to be competitive. 9/10 previous winners had winning form in graded three mile hurdles, therefore any horse with no form over three miles is easily opposed in terms of winning the race: Peddlers Cross, Solwhit, Get Me Out Of Here and Wonderful Charm fit that mould. However there may be some each-way value in those come post time as they're all a bit short at the time of writing. Monksland has the potential to be a rapid improver and is the real unknown quantity in the race, I worry if he's ready for this on only his 8th start under rules, he hasn't done enough to justify joint second favouritism in my opinion. Bog Warrior, Zaidpour and So Young would need considerable cut in the ground which can't be guaranteed. I believe the market has got this about right, the top two in the betting bring the best form into the race and are the highest rated in the field. Over 2 1/2 miles I would be all over Oscar Whisky, but it's over 3 miles which I believe stretches him to the limit. I would personally have him and REVE DE SIVOLA the other way round in the market due to the latter being rock solid, he stays well and has excellent festival form, having looked at the race in depth I think he is good value at 5/1. In relation to each-way value, SMAD PLACE would have to bounce back to form to make the frame, but it isn't out of the question and his effort in the Longwalk probably wasn't as bad as it appeared at the time. He stays well and has been there and done it before, better ground would also be beneficial, 16/1 is decent each-way value.

Advice - Reve De Sivola 2pt Win @5/1 Paddy Power/Ladbrokes
Smad Place 0.75pt E/W @ 16/1 Various

Selections - Saturday 22nd December

Rain has meant we will see more of the testing ground we have seen in recent weeks, both Ascot and Haydock are heavy whilst Newcastle has been forced to abandon their card. I am struggling to find any real value so it's not much of a betting day for me.

Raya Star takes the Ladbroke Hurdle last year under a brilliantly timed Wayne Hutchinson ride

Ascot

12:55 - Foundation Developments Novices Handicap Hurdle

This race will ultimately take some getting for these novice hurdlers, young horses having to slog 3 miles around Ascot on testing ground will sort them out. De La Bech will be a popular choice after his impressive 20 length victory at Lingfield last month, he appeared to revel in the heavy ground and looks to be a horse who can defy his mark off 118. The stable hasn't been in great form but had a winner here yesterday. Another horse on the upgrade is Okafranca, Jim Old's gelding has made a solid return after injury and has been raised 8lb for his latest win at Taunton which looks fair. 110 looks workable, he is also a 7 going 8 year old so has the benefit of physical and mental maturity over some of his rivals here, that is a huge plus in the testing ground. Cheat The Cheater looks to be getting better as he matures and will probably make the shake up as Kaylif Aramis and Koultas King have been running consistently but finding one or two too good, I think that will be the story again here. Wings Of Icarus was heavily supported for a handicap hurdle at Sandown last month, David Pipe has stepped him up to 3 miles which should assist as he appeared to get outpaced. He has strong claims. Call Me Sir has rose 34lb in the handicap from 69 to 103 since the summer, he is on a career high mark here and may get found out. Cornish Ice made a pleasing comeback after injury but probably will probably find the heavy ground hard work on his second start back, fitness may be an issue. A tentative selection goes to Highland Retreat, he is a winning Irish pointer and looks to be a bit of a slow plodder, but that is what this race will require and I fancy him to stay. The form of his last run isn't too bad either, Midnight Appeal has gone and ran well at Cheltenham being Coneygree and Return Spring is no mug. Jack Barber is a decent conditional, his 7lb claim is very valuable here. He looks over priced at 14/1 and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Highland Retreat 1pt EW @14/1 Bet365

2:00 - Long Walk Hurdle

Master Of The Hall - Needs a trip and on the basis
 of his best chase form, could be overpriced

Obviously the defection of Big Bucks to injury has made this race much more of a betting heat than it originally was. Smad Place was very disappointing at Wetherby on his comeback run, having travelled strongly he found nothing and weakened into a tame 3rd. Alan King has stated he wasn't happy with the grey when he got back to the yard so something may of been a miss. His form figures at Ascot read 1,2 so he goes at the track and must be better for his Wetherby effort, it must be remembered that Tidal Bay has gone to be runner-up in the Hennessy and Crack Away Jack didn't disgrace himself behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham last week. He is only a 5 year old so there is still improvement to come and if he reproduces the form that saw him finish 3rd in the World Hurdle last year, he will be hard to beat here. On that form 2/1 contains a bit of value to me, particularly as most of his rivals are not regulars in this sphere and have something to prove. Trustan Times is definitely a horse on the upgrade after his win in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, on that form he has merited a step up in class. We will find out where he stands here, he will go in ground and he will stay. I would say he looks a solid bet and he has every chance, 11/4 on what he has achieved is a tad short though in my opinion. Prospect Wells takes a big step-up in trip which I don't like on the heavy ground. Undoubtedly one of the classiest horses in the race, that may be blunted as I can see this becoming a bit of a slog, there looks to be pace in the race with a couple of confirmed front runners and whether he will stay 3 miles is a doubt in my mind. Those front runners are Kayf Aramis and Cucumber Run who both look to be slightly out of their depth here, they are likely to set the race up for the more classy horses. I understand Reve De Sivola has a decent chance based upon his 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury but I can't be having him at 9/2. Master Of The Hall only goes in small fields and is difficult to place, he is reverted back to hurdles here and on the pick of his chase form is has a chance. Tony McCoy has got on well with him in the past and the fact Geraghty has sided with stablemate Cucumber Run is of interest. 8/1 represents a bit of value to me.

Advice - Smad Place - 1pt Win @9/4 Stan James

Master Of The Hall - 1pt Win @8/1 William Hill

3:10 - Ladbroke Hurdle

Cause Of Causes looks overpriced at 16/1
 based upon his solid form

Wow this is a competitive renewal! 6 reappear from The Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, including 5 of the first 6 home, consequently the race will provide a significant form line for this. It would be appropriate to start with the winner Olofi, the 136 mark that defied him on numerous occasions last year was overcome to record a 2 length victory - he was cut up turning for home and possibly could have won by further. He has been raised 8lb to 144 which looks workable, he has obviously improved for the summer and defying this mark here is feasible. I worry slightly he's going right handed, only gone right handed once in career and there is a possibility those behind last month have got a pull at the weights here. At 14/1 earlier in the week he represented some value, but at 9's that value is all but gone. Cash And Go was runner-up to Olofi and has been raised 4lb for that effort, 145 looks a very workable mark based on what we saw last time out and he has strong claims to go one better here. Barry Geraghty has chosen him out of Nicky Henderson's 4 entries. Balder Succes is currently favourite at 6/1 generally and bids to take the honours for the King yard once again, his best form is on soft so ground conditions should be ideal. It is likely he has plenty of improvement in him as he is only 4, he has abundances of class and does a lot of work on the bridle. Whether he has more much improvement beyond his 147 mark is yet to be seen but he has obvious claims and won't be far away in my opinion, he is a little short based upon what he has achieved but the untapped potential is there to be seen. It's A Gimme ran a cracker to be second to Raya Star here last month, readers will know I'm not a huge fan and the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft is a worry, he may well act on it but I wouldn't be prepared to take the chance. Coming back from an injury is always a concern and at 9/1 Ranjaan represents little value. He is obviously talented and is French bred so should go on the ground, but this is a big ask on his comeback run. Cause Of Causes looks overpriced to me at 16/1, he was just over a length behind Cash And Go at Cheltenham and is 9pts bigger in price. I know he stayed on into 3rd and never looked like winning, but he has only gone up 3lb which looks fair to me and I think he has more strong each-way claims here. His defeat by a head in the Galway Hurdle was also a cracker. Rattan was 6th at Cheltenham but was never really in the race, he was staying on late but retains his mark of 142 which looks high enough. Double Ross was an impressive winner of the Intermediate Hurdle at the Open Meeting before running creditably at Haydock when carrying a penalty in a competitive hurdle, he hit the wall that day after the last which is a worry. This is more competitive and his handicap mark now stands at 142, that's 5lb higher than Haydock and although he will go in the ground, he may have found his level. Into Wain gets in off a feather weight after being unlucky to go down to an inspired Petit Robin at Sandown, I thought he as all over the winner that day and he must have a chance again here. Bothy ran another cracker at Cheltenham to finish 4th, he has been raised even further to 142 which looks plenty high enough, however Patrick Corbett has proved his worth and his 7lb claim is very valuable. Effectively running off a mark of 135 is a pound below the mark he finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle off. At 28/1 I think he's massively over priced and is likely to be placed once again. A worry is he has very rarely gone right handed. Petit Robin and Dan Breen both look very exposed now as Bar De Ligne, Thomas Edison and First Avenue don't have an adequate level of form that would justify a chance. Princeton Plains has a 7lb higher mark in England than Ireland, therefore he looks held here and Urbain De Sivola's form is hard to make sense of as it's all in France. He goes there to get the testing ground which he will find tomorrow, the only way I can judge him is his effort in the Triumph last year where he was 12th, although he is only 4 and could be unexposed. Rigidity (dark horse to follow) has been novice chasing but has been a tad disappointing, he reverts back to hurdles here and is off the same mark he was second last year. Returning to the scene of his best effort to date could rekindle the fire, but as one of his supporters I feel this isn't his day. Lyvius was a batting winner of the Gerry Fielden last month and looks to be on the upgrade. Rock On Ruby won that race at Newbury before going onto Champion Hurdle glory, I'm not saying this horse has that quality but he looks unexposed and fits the mould of the type of horse that wins this race. Barry Geraghty said there wasn't a lot between him and Cash And Go when it came to his decision. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional and his 5lb claim only boosts his claims, he has form on testing ground in Germany so that shouldn't be a problem either. I have backed him at 11/1 earlier in the week but wouldn't be having him at 9's which he is currently.

Advice - Lyvius - Win @11/1 (Ante-Post)
Cause Of Causes - 1pt EW @16/1 Majority
Bothy - 0.5pt EW @28/1 Bet Fred

Other horses of interest:
Desert Cry
Ulck Du Lin
Notarfbad (Eyecatcher)

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

Super Saturday Selections - 3/11/2012

What a days racing! For many the jump season proper starts tomorrow at Wetherby for the Charlie Hall, but we are spoilt with a superb card at Ascot for the United House Gold Cup playing a role which is far from supportive! The icing on the cake comes in the evening when the Breeders Cup sparks into life where the European raid looks to be strong once again!

However on a day where the quality of racing is so high, I am finding hard to get really stuck into my selections this week. This is probably due to my selections having no value in their price.

Wetherby:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - Overturn  Is Simonsig A Banker Or A Blowout
Many of you readers will be aware that I have been a supporter of Overturn for a long time. Those who read my blog about Simonsig being an Arkle banker will know that I believe Overturn to be Simonsigs greatest danger next March, if he transfers his hurdles form to fences of course. Therefore, I can't see him getting beat tomorrow unless he tips up. The race isn't the strongest and there should be nothing in his league. His price will be very very small, but I believe he will justify it and he's my banker of the day. May lack imagination but the return is as near a penalty kick as you're going to get. I've noticed this morning he is a non-runner, sorry to have wasted you're time!

Smad Place

2:50 - 3 Mile Hurdle
Selection - Smad Place
This was another obvious choice for me. This grey is still a young horse who had a brilliant season last year, which culminated in a 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle. That represents the best form that any of these bring to the table, more importantly he should still be on the upgrade as he is only 5. That is more that can be said about the others! Tidal Bay and Fair Along have seen better days now, although I think Tidal Bay could be the one to upset the party if he has a going day, but that's a big if! Restless Harry and Crack Away Jack simply have been proven not to be good enough and look a little way behind Smad Place. Finally, Cape Tribulation had a fantastic end to his season last year when winning at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he's going to have to improve on that to compete here. All in all, you would expect Smad Place to build on what he did last year and if he has, he will be too good for these. I think 15/8 is a stonking bet!

3:25 - Charlie Hall Chase
Selection - Planet Sound (at the prices)
If Planet Of Sound recaptures the form he showed first time out in the Hennessy last year he will go very very close. He will be carrying my money at 5/1. Whereas 5/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a ridiculous price. I looked at him earlier on in the week and umed and erred about backing him at 5/2, let alone 5/4! I didn't think 5/2 was value anyway. He should go well tomorrow and is the most likely winner, but at the prices I'm leaving him alone. Paul Nicholls rates him as his best 3 mile chaser this year, but has stated that he needs to mature to be a serious Gold Cup contender, he thinks 2014 will be the chestnuts year. Silviniaco Conti looks to have a lot in his favour. Master Of The Hall could be a danger, he has one first time out the last two years and Nicky Henderson has an astonishingly good record of bringing horses back after a break. My only worry is if he will be good enough to concede the weight. Time For Rupert could also be a danger, Paul Webber thought he never quite had him right last year but he still ran well, shown by his 5th place finish in the Gold Cup. He was 2nd in this race last year and it wouldn't be a surprise if he goes one better this year. As for the others, Midnight Chase is surely too old now and may find a horse on the upgrade such as Silviniaco Conti too strong and Wayward Prince is trained by John Parrotts wife...

Ascot

1:25 - 2 Mile 3 Furlong Beginners Chase
Selection - Hadrian's Approach
This race looks a bit of a two horse affair. I have selected Hadrian's Approach because I know Nicky Henderson has been a big fan of this horse since the day he arrived at the yard. Although he is relatively inexperienced, he has winning form around Ascot. However he was probably held when he fell 2 out on his last start at the track. I'm not too worried about his lack of jumping experience, he has already won a point to point and Barry Geraghty has said he's been sharp when schooling at home in his Atheraces blog this week. I think he was given a break after he fell last time out to allow him to mature, as he looked like a bit of a baby last year. He just shades it over Rolling Aces, who ran well at Cheltenham last month without quite getting up the hill. At the bottom of the hill he was travelling as well as any, but he couldn't quite go with the leaders. That was a hurdle and it will have sharpened him up for his chasing debut here, however he also has some chasing experience because he was a point to point winner. This race is shorter in trip by 2 furlongs than Cheltenham which may help him, but to be honest I'm really clutching at straws here because there really isn't much between him and Hadrian's Approach.

2:00 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - My Tent Or Yours
My Tent Or Yours is a very exciting novice hurdler this year and is a horse I'm very keen on. I find it interesting J P McManus has snapped him up over the summer, although I must admit I would rather have Geraghty on his back than McCoy. Geraghty was eager to stress that My Tent Or Yours was schooling well at home in his Atheraces blog, he was a good bumper horse last year and got very close to subsequent Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One at Aintree last spring. All things considered, I think he should go well. I think his biggest danger will come from Chiberta King. This resident of Andrew Balding's stable looks a very interesting recruit to the national hunt scene. He was competing in the top class staying races on the flat, against the top class horses. Rated as high as 108 on the flat, he was certainly no mug! My only worry is that these horses who were good on the flat don't always transfer their talent to hurdles immediately, they normally take some time to get their act together. Consequently, My Tent Or Yours shades it.

Ile De Re Looks To Have  Strong Claims

2:35 - 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ile De Re
I have already backed him at 4/1 and I am extremely happy! Whilst writing  he his currently 11/4 and I can only see his price contracting further. His last run at Ascot on Champions Day was relatively disappointing, but I always thought he would struggle in that company. However, I can't help but feel he wasn't given the hardest time once he was beaten and consequently the run shouldn't have taken too much out of him. Therefore I think the run should have put him bang on for this race, and off a mark of 123, he could be the best handicapped horse I have seen since Hunt Ball! 4/1 could be an absolutely massive price! I fancy him strongly. The opposition is strong though, it's a very competitive race! War Singer looks unexposed, but I am put off by how David Pipe's horses are going at the moment. I've seen a few running the odd stinker recently, although you would imagine it's the calm before the storm at the Open Meeting in 2 weeks time! I believe Raya Star to be handicapped to the hill and this is a fitness building exercise before he embarks on a novice chasing campaign, although Alan King couldn't be in better form! Changing The Guard has ran so consistently in lower class races and this step up should find him out unfortunately and I'm just not a big It's A Gimme fan. Cape Express has been raised 11 pounds in the weights since last weeks win at Aintree, he won impressively and I think he may be able to overcome the rise. He looks to be the main danger along with Claret Cloak from the Emma Lavelle yard. He brings solid form into the race when he finished within 2 lengths of smart bumper horse Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury and has also got the better of opponent War Singer in the past, whilst also being too strong for Bold Henry who recently ran very well to be a close 2nd to the smart Paul Nicholls chaser Rebel Rebellion. I think there is definitely more to come.

3:10 - United House Gold Cup
Selection - Baile Anrai e/w (If I had to have a bet)
I don't really fancy any of these to be honest. I like Baile Anrai because he is in one of my ten to follows, but I don't have much confidence. I don't like backing horses out of the handicap, especially when they're 7 pounds out! It's a bit of a sentimental bet. The opposition look to have strength in depth, but not in massive quality. I don't like Ace High because Victor Dartnell is in terrible form, I think Alfie Spinner needs further and Duke Of Lucca needs better ground. On the flip side, the ground needs to be juicier for Cannington Brook and I have doubts if Poquelin really wants 3 miles. Tullamore Dew went off the boil towards the end of last year and he will have to recapture his old form to stand a chance here, history tells us he also tends to need a run to sharpen him up. If I had to have a win bet it would be Join Together, the stable are in good form and he tends to run his best races at the beginning of the year. In terms of a win bet, he shades just over Roberto Goldback whose transfer to England is intriguing, particularly because he prefers good ground which he is more likely to get in this country.

Other horses I will be backing on the day:
Criqtonic
Brick Red
Baby Shine
Jetnova
Bog Warrior
Joncol

A Novice Chase Insight.....Continued

Dynaste: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=744041#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Front running grey who had a progressive year over hurdles last year with the highlight being a runaway 8 length victory in the valuable 3m fixed brush hurdle at Haydock in November. A step up in class meant that the 6 year old was now standing toe to toe with the highest class staying hurdlers around, more accurately against the greatest staying hurdler of all time Bug Bucks. The former was his conqueror in his next 3 starts in the Longwalk, Cleeve and World hurdles respectively. However, it is Longwalk hurdle at Ascot which interests me most. Since Big Bucks reverted to hurdles I can only think of one occasion when a horse seemed to get Big Bucks off the bridle and in trouble, this horse was Dynaste in the Longwalk hurdle where Tom Scudamore kicked for home when leaving the back straight looking to steal a march. For a few strides Ruby Walsh became increasingly animated on Big Bucks but as the result shows Big Bucks was an easy winner in the end after getting on terms with Dynaste. As a result of kicking for home early Dynaste had little in tank and he tired into 4th beaten 19 lengths. I thought this was an unfair reflection of his efforts, he probably deserved 2nd at least. As with many David Pipe horses he if often sent on to bowl along in front, his high natural cruising speed could bring out any flaws in his competitors jumping. His front-running style may also be beneficial in keeping him out of trouble in novice chases where an increased amount of mistakes and fallers can create traffic problems for horses racing further back in the field. If he takes to fences like he has attacked his hurdles you can expect this horse to be a prominent figure in 3m novice chases this year without quite having the class to beat the top draw horses. You would expect to see him in the RSA and may target the 3m novice chase at the open meeting as a pre-christmas target.

Get Me Out Of Here: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=734779#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Widely recognised as the most unlucky horse in training having finished runner-up at 3 consecutive Festivals. Having finished second last year in 2 of the most competitive handicap hurdles in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February and then behind Son Of Flicka in the Coral Cup at the Festival, he finally get his head in front at the Fairyhouse festival in April. Unfortunately, this string of brilliant efforts have come at a cost. His rating has headed skywards to 158 meaning he will almost certainly carry top weight in every handicap he runs in and as a result he may have to step up to championship class. An alternative option is to head novice chasing. This idea was on the table last year but the decision not to can be supported by the amount of prize money he has picked up in the handicap hurdles. Finally, this year may be the year and Jonjo has made it public that Get Me Out Of Here is a fine jumper of fences when schooling at home. Having been stepped up to 2m 4f at the end of last year at the Festival and at Fairyhouse, this would suggest that 2m 4f novice chases would be his target. Although, Jonjo may consider 2m novice chases bearing in mind his 2nd place finishes in the Supreme Novice Hurdle and County Hurdle at the festival were over 2miles. The Arkle could possibly be the long-term target this year but I would expect him to prefer the extra stamina test of the Jewson over 2m 5f. We know that he has high class form at the Festival and has appeared to run better in the spring. All things considered expect to see him in the shake up at the Festival again this year and fingers crossed he gets his head in front this time!

Smad Place: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=764650#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Smad Place is another advert for he strength in depth of the juveniles who ran in the 2011 triumph hurdle. Quality animals such as Zarkandar, Grandouet, Unaccompanied, Sailors Warn and Brampour are all graduates of the race that year. Bearing in mind Smad Place finished 10th that day he was only beaten 11 lengths. 2011/2012 saw massive progression in this grey culminating in a superb 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle, this was with a distinct lack of experience compared to his rivals in only his 1st attempt outside of handicap company (as a second season hurdler). Before the spring he had won a very competitive grade 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot in January by 7 lengths in ultra impressive style after an extended spell on the sidelines, beating home decent yard sticks such as Pateese. More eye catching perhaps was his next run on a return to Ascot in February. He conceded more than a stone to some seasoned campaigners such as Aimigayle and the progressive Lanzarote hurdle winner Swincombe Flame, although he was runner up it was it was a memorable weight carrying performance. Particularly as he gave 29 pounds to subsequent unexposed Cheltenham Festival fancy Bourne. Putting a line through his only blip last year when unseating at Aintree, Smad Place has the potential to improve again this year due to being so young. However, at the tender age if 5, it could be his age that is the main counter-argument to novice chasing this year. Another years experience over hurdles is likely beneficial as it is expected he may still have some degree of immaturity. Also bearing in mind he is a 3 miler, the obvious target would be the RSA but in such a grueling race would it be appropriate to put him through such an experience at such a young age? Probably not. Also at 14-1 for the RSA I'm not sure this represents any value at this time with such a young horse going novice chasing. My track of thought is persuaded by Sam Winner's novice chase campaign last year. Although, if you do see Smad Place's name entered in a novice chase anywhere this year expect a run for your money.