Selections - Saturday 22nd December

Rain has meant we will see more of the testing ground we have seen in recent weeks, both Ascot and Haydock are heavy whilst Newcastle has been forced to abandon their card. I am struggling to find any real value so it's not much of a betting day for me.

Raya Star takes the Ladbroke Hurdle last year under a brilliantly timed Wayne Hutchinson ride

Ascot

12:55 - Foundation Developments Novices Handicap Hurdle

This race will ultimately take some getting for these novice hurdlers, young horses having to slog 3 miles around Ascot on testing ground will sort them out. De La Bech will be a popular choice after his impressive 20 length victory at Lingfield last month, he appeared to revel in the heavy ground and looks to be a horse who can defy his mark off 118. The stable hasn't been in great form but had a winner here yesterday. Another horse on the upgrade is Okafranca, Jim Old's gelding has made a solid return after injury and has been raised 8lb for his latest win at Taunton which looks fair. 110 looks workable, he is also a 7 going 8 year old so has the benefit of physical and mental maturity over some of his rivals here, that is a huge plus in the testing ground. Cheat The Cheater looks to be getting better as he matures and will probably make the shake up as Kaylif Aramis and Koultas King have been running consistently but finding one or two too good, I think that will be the story again here. Wings Of Icarus was heavily supported for a handicap hurdle at Sandown last month, David Pipe has stepped him up to 3 miles which should assist as he appeared to get outpaced. He has strong claims. Call Me Sir has rose 34lb in the handicap from 69 to 103 since the summer, he is on a career high mark here and may get found out. Cornish Ice made a pleasing comeback after injury but probably will probably find the heavy ground hard work on his second start back, fitness may be an issue. A tentative selection goes to Highland Retreat, he is a winning Irish pointer and looks to be a bit of a slow plodder, but that is what this race will require and I fancy him to stay. The form of his last run isn't too bad either, Midnight Appeal has gone and ran well at Cheltenham being Coneygree and Return Spring is no mug. Jack Barber is a decent conditional, his 7lb claim is very valuable here. He looks over priced at 14/1 and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Highland Retreat 1pt EW @14/1 Bet365

2:00 - Long Walk Hurdle

Master Of The Hall - Needs a trip and on the basis
 of his best chase form, could be overpriced

Obviously the defection of Big Bucks to injury has made this race much more of a betting heat than it originally was. Smad Place was very disappointing at Wetherby on his comeback run, having travelled strongly he found nothing and weakened into a tame 3rd. Alan King has stated he wasn't happy with the grey when he got back to the yard so something may of been a miss. His form figures at Ascot read 1,2 so he goes at the track and must be better for his Wetherby effort, it must be remembered that Tidal Bay has gone to be runner-up in the Hennessy and Crack Away Jack didn't disgrace himself behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham last week. He is only a 5 year old so there is still improvement to come and if he reproduces the form that saw him finish 3rd in the World Hurdle last year, he will be hard to beat here. On that form 2/1 contains a bit of value to me, particularly as most of his rivals are not regulars in this sphere and have something to prove. Trustan Times is definitely a horse on the upgrade after his win in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, on that form he has merited a step up in class. We will find out where he stands here, he will go in ground and he will stay. I would say he looks a solid bet and he has every chance, 11/4 on what he has achieved is a tad short though in my opinion. Prospect Wells takes a big step-up in trip which I don't like on the heavy ground. Undoubtedly one of the classiest horses in the race, that may be blunted as I can see this becoming a bit of a slog, there looks to be pace in the race with a couple of confirmed front runners and whether he will stay 3 miles is a doubt in my mind. Those front runners are Kayf Aramis and Cucumber Run who both look to be slightly out of their depth here, they are likely to set the race up for the more classy horses. I understand Reve De Sivola has a decent chance based upon his 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury but I can't be having him at 9/2. Master Of The Hall only goes in small fields and is difficult to place, he is reverted back to hurdles here and on the pick of his chase form is has a chance. Tony McCoy has got on well with him in the past and the fact Geraghty has sided with stablemate Cucumber Run is of interest. 8/1 represents a bit of value to me.

Advice - Smad Place - 1pt Win @9/4 Stan James

Master Of The Hall - 1pt Win @8/1 William Hill

3:10 - Ladbroke Hurdle

Cause Of Causes looks overpriced at 16/1
 based upon his solid form

Wow this is a competitive renewal! 6 reappear from The Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, including 5 of the first 6 home, consequently the race will provide a significant form line for this. It would be appropriate to start with the winner Olofi, the 136 mark that defied him on numerous occasions last year was overcome to record a 2 length victory - he was cut up turning for home and possibly could have won by further. He has been raised 8lb to 144 which looks workable, he has obviously improved for the summer and defying this mark here is feasible. I worry slightly he's going right handed, only gone right handed once in career and there is a possibility those behind last month have got a pull at the weights here. At 14/1 earlier in the week he represented some value, but at 9's that value is all but gone. Cash And Go was runner-up to Olofi and has been raised 4lb for that effort, 145 looks a very workable mark based on what we saw last time out and he has strong claims to go one better here. Barry Geraghty has chosen him out of Nicky Henderson's 4 entries. Balder Succes is currently favourite at 6/1 generally and bids to take the honours for the King yard once again, his best form is on soft so ground conditions should be ideal. It is likely he has plenty of improvement in him as he is only 4, he has abundances of class and does a lot of work on the bridle. Whether he has more much improvement beyond his 147 mark is yet to be seen but he has obvious claims and won't be far away in my opinion, he is a little short based upon what he has achieved but the untapped potential is there to be seen. It's A Gimme ran a cracker to be second to Raya Star here last month, readers will know I'm not a huge fan and the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft is a worry, he may well act on it but I wouldn't be prepared to take the chance. Coming back from an injury is always a concern and at 9/1 Ranjaan represents little value. He is obviously talented and is French bred so should go on the ground, but this is a big ask on his comeback run. Cause Of Causes looks overpriced to me at 16/1, he was just over a length behind Cash And Go at Cheltenham and is 9pts bigger in price. I know he stayed on into 3rd and never looked like winning, but he has only gone up 3lb which looks fair to me and I think he has more strong each-way claims here. His defeat by a head in the Galway Hurdle was also a cracker. Rattan was 6th at Cheltenham but was never really in the race, he was staying on late but retains his mark of 142 which looks high enough. Double Ross was an impressive winner of the Intermediate Hurdle at the Open Meeting before running creditably at Haydock when carrying a penalty in a competitive hurdle, he hit the wall that day after the last which is a worry. This is more competitive and his handicap mark now stands at 142, that's 5lb higher than Haydock and although he will go in the ground, he may have found his level. Into Wain gets in off a feather weight after being unlucky to go down to an inspired Petit Robin at Sandown, I thought he as all over the winner that day and he must have a chance again here. Bothy ran another cracker at Cheltenham to finish 4th, he has been raised even further to 142 which looks plenty high enough, however Patrick Corbett has proved his worth and his 7lb claim is very valuable. Effectively running off a mark of 135 is a pound below the mark he finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle off. At 28/1 I think he's massively over priced and is likely to be placed once again. A worry is he has very rarely gone right handed. Petit Robin and Dan Breen both look very exposed now as Bar De Ligne, Thomas Edison and First Avenue don't have an adequate level of form that would justify a chance. Princeton Plains has a 7lb higher mark in England than Ireland, therefore he looks held here and Urbain De Sivola's form is hard to make sense of as it's all in France. He goes there to get the testing ground which he will find tomorrow, the only way I can judge him is his effort in the Triumph last year where he was 12th, although he is only 4 and could be unexposed. Rigidity (dark horse to follow) has been novice chasing but has been a tad disappointing, he reverts back to hurdles here and is off the same mark he was second last year. Returning to the scene of his best effort to date could rekindle the fire, but as one of his supporters I feel this isn't his day. Lyvius was a batting winner of the Gerry Fielden last month and looks to be on the upgrade. Rock On Ruby won that race at Newbury before going onto Champion Hurdle glory, I'm not saying this horse has that quality but he looks unexposed and fits the mould of the type of horse that wins this race. Barry Geraghty said there wasn't a lot between him and Cash And Go when it came to his decision. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional and his 5lb claim only boosts his claims, he has form on testing ground in Germany so that shouldn't be a problem either. I have backed him at 11/1 earlier in the week but wouldn't be having him at 9's which he is currently.

Advice - Lyvius - Win @11/1 (Ante-Post)
Cause Of Causes - 1pt EW @16/1 Majority
Bothy - 0.5pt EW @28/1 Bet Fred

Other horses of interest:
Desert Cry
Ulck Du Lin
Notarfbad (Eyecatcher)

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

The Open Meeting Exclusive - Sunday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll still be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham on Sunday to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

1:10 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
Selection - Captain Conan

Captain Conan - Expected To Make It To The Top Of The Novice Chasing Ranks This Year

Nicky Henderson has been very public in saying how he adores this horse. His novice hurdle campaign was ultimately a successful one, a placed finished at Aintree followed a debut victory in the Tolworth at Sandown in January. The Aintree run behind his stable mate Darlan is solid form, more so than his Tolworth win where he beat Colour Squadron. Whatever Captain Conan did last year was a bonus because he has always been thought of as a chaser. I hear he has been schooling well at home and a stiff 2 miles should suit, I have a niggling doubt that he will want further in time though, he may lack that killer turn of foot over 2 miles. However, I don't think that will be a problem here, there isn't much pace in this race. Sire Du Grugy is the only horse that may have the pace to do Capatain Conan for toe, he is a genuine 2 miler but I wouldn't say he has a killer turn of foot. He had cracking handicap hurdle form last year, notably when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle. He has the scope to make up into a really nice chaser and measured his fences accurately on his debut at Kempton. I worry he is best going right handed. Third Intention would prefer further in my opinion, although he was caught up the run-in here last month. That wasn't the first time he has been caught when clear after the last, Houblon Des Obeaux wore him down at Haydock two years ago, personally I would stick a pair of blinkers on him. I think he is a very frustrating horse to follow, the consistency is there, which I like, but he looks hard to win with and that puts me off. He jumped well on his debut, maybe with too much zest which may have cost him later in the race, but he stays 2 1/2 and I don't think he likes being alone in front. Not for me I'm afraid! Rebel Rebellion ground it out on his chasing debut at Exeter. I thought he had a bit of an ungamely action and didn't look a natural. He jumped well from the front and was barely headed as he stayed on best to get the better of the Bold Henry. However that horse failed to frank the form on Wednesday and he looked like he would need further than 2 miles to me, he ran over 2 3/4 whilst with Charlie Mann, he also has to carry a penalty which won't help. He looks up against it here but he may do ok bearing in mind he will jump well from the front, I fear he will give the better horses a toe into the race, the strong pace he may set will suit horses in behind down to the ground. His Excellency wore down Third Intention to win here last month, this is a much tougher race and looks to have each-way claims at best. I will have to assess the market nearer the time, but I think Sire De Grugy could go off a decent price if the bookmakers get sucked into the Captain Conan hype.

2:50 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Hurdle
Selection - Darlan

Darlan - Champion Hurdle The Target And Horses Of That Mould Have Good Record In The Race, No Value In His Price Though

Darlan is being trained for a crack at the Champion Hurdle this year and Nicky Henderson is pleased with how he has matured over the summer, he looks a really promising sort. Carrying top weight is always a concern, but horses carrying large weights have a good record in this race and have gone on to progress into Champion Hurdle horses. Examples are: Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Brampour last year (carried 11-11 without Harry Derham's claim). It would be fair to say that Darlan fits that mould. I think he is the best horse in the race, will appreciate a strongly ran 2 miles and has a great chance, I have got 5/1 but 3/1 or 5/2 is a ridiculous price, like Grands Crus it represents no value! Cash And Go is a grade 1 winner and had strong form when with Edward O'Grady in Ireland. His transfer to Nicky Henderson's yard is interesting and he looks open to improvement off a mark of 141, however he will have to improve a lot to get the better of Darlan on all given novice hurdle form last year. He receives 10lb off his stable mate here, I personally don't think that's enough. He beat Dylan Ross by only half a length at Leopardstown and Dylan Ross was well down the field in the Supreme Novice, behind Darlan. Domination is the unexposed horse in the race who looks to be on a steep upward curve. His second to Baily Green by a nose over hurdles at Killarney was a decent effort, the winner has gone on to rack up a 5 timer over fences. Beaten a nose by a horse now rated 145 over fences and he runs here off 136, he could be well in on that form. I'm not a huge It's A Gimme fan, but I expect him to run well here on the back of his 2nd at Ascot 2 weeks ago, but Mcmanus has never won this race with his 2nd string and I am confident McCoy will side with the first string Darlan. Moon Dice has had a show of confidence from his trainer during the week. He runs off a pound lower here than he did last year when he was 4th, I think the handicapper still has him in his grasp. This is also a second thought after a disappointing start to his novice chase campaign earlier in the year which is a negative in my eyes. Prospect Wells will have the race run to suit and I think is a solid each way bet, I worry this may come to quick for him after last weeks ding dong battle with Zarkandar. Bothy and Olofi have run admirably in big handicaps, I love their consistency, but I feel the handicapper has them. I don't fancy Kazlian because I don't like backing horses who ran in the Fred Winter in this race, I don't think their quite classy enough otherwise they would have run in the Triumph. The same could be argued for Vendor, however Alan King rates him on a similar level to his top juveniles last year Grumeti and Balder Succes. He could be potentially well handicapped but he pulled very hard at Aintree last month and I wonder whether he would be better suited by a smaller field. Dark Lover won easily in a conditional jockeys handicap here last month, he is obviously on the upgrade but he will have to improve again to win here. Ryan Mahon takes 3lb off which assists and I think he has each way claims. Glam Gerry is my each way bet at a price. 33/1 looks a bit big for me considering he was placed behind Salut Flo at the Festival last year, he won the flat race when Go Native made his comeback and I feel he may stay on into a place.

3:25 - 2 Miles 5 Furlongs. Hyde Novices Hurdle
Selection - Village Vic

Village Vic (Black Sleeves) - Ticks All The Boxes

In my opinion, the form from the October equivalent of this race will stack up well come the spring. Ante-post Neptune Hurdle favourite The New One stayed on strongly to to get the better of Village Vic by 3 lengths, the third, the useful Thomas Crapper, was 21 lengths further behind! Phillip Hobbs rates this gelding very highly, his bumper campaign tailed off a bit last year after a cracking effort to come within a nose of the classy Shutthefrontdoor in February. However, his trainer has admitted he should have put him away after that run and not gone to Cheltenham and Punchestown in he spring. The run last month suggested he has overcome those poor efforts and is back on track, that piece of course form may stand him in good stead here against less experienced horses. He is the safe bet in the race and looks a solid contender. Fox Run had a large reputation in the Point To Point field and made a slick debut success at Worcester for his new stable. He showed good pace to quicken away from the consistent Chargen, it was a really taking performance. You're taking a punt on his untapped potential but he could be anything. Wingtips is my Under The Radar Juvenile for the season, he ran well to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and followed it up with a solid 3rd in the Punchestown equivalent. He was given a bad ride on his seasonal reappearance when 2/9 fav at Fairyhouse earlier in the month, it will have sharpened him up for this though. He has a chance if he can repeat his Triumph Hurdle form. I Shot The Sheriff, apart from being fantastically named (for you Bob Marley fans out there!), showed a smart turn of foot when winning at Wetherby on his hurdling debut and looks to have improved for the summer. He was quite a weak bumper horse last year and he has also moved to David Pipe's stable during the off season. I wouldn't put him out of it on the back of that win, he could be a horse at a price that may warrant some respect. According To Trev won the 3 mile novice hurdle here last month, he looked slow and may get outpaced here when stepping back in trip. Also the race looked poor and he has to carry a penalty, not a lot in his favour in my opinion. Bondage is another horse who won here last month in a 2 1/2 handicap hurdle, McCoy gave it a great ride that day but will be deserting him for the JP McManus owned Dursey Sound here. He also carries a penalty and is likely to get out classed. The fore mentioned Dursey Sound will have the champion jockey on board, his form isn't the strongest and will need to improve to win here but he could be anything.

My selections for the day:
1:10 - Captain Conan
1:45 - Malt Master, Well Sharp, Close House (Undecided)
2:20 - Sprinter Sacre
2:50 - Darlan
3:25 - Village Vic
4:00 - Fascino Rustico

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

Owners To Follow - The McNeill Family

The McNeill Family have had their fair share of the limelight when it comes to big race successes and I think it's likely to be case again this year. Horses to take into battle this year include: Champion Hurdle contender Grumeti. High-class handicappers Kumbeshwar, Olofi and Walkon. Potentailly exciting juveniles Handazan and Arabian Heights. The 2012 Sefton Hurdle winner Lovcen is also partly owned by the McNeills. With this kind of ammunition carrying the iconic blue and white hoops silks with burgundy sleeves and cap, you would expect the silks to be gracing the winners enclosure rather frequently!

Grumeti:
Alan King has been public in saying that he thinks this horse is the best juvenile he has ever trained. Now that's a bold statement! The King of Barbury Castle has had many top class juveniles over the years, including two Triumph Hurdle winners, Penzance, subsequent Champion Hurdle Winner Katchit as well as Walkon and the sadly ill-fated Mille Chief. The geldings first season was a very good one. He came a bit out of the unknown to score at Taunton on his debut at 11/2, before being an unlucky faller when having the race at his mercy at Newbury next time out. I think he hadn't quite got over the fall on his next start at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day where he won, albeit in the stewards room. Although he had a mild injury scare, the break between then and The Festival obviously did him the world of good. His run in Triumph was a cracker. He made a bad mistake down the back and although he finished 3rd, if he had met the last on a stride instead of fiddling over it, he may have won. Revenge over his Triumph conqueror Countrywide Flame was sweet at Aintree though. In my eyes, I thought he was just about the best juvenile last year and he should have matured nicely over the summer, he could be a much improved horse this year. King stated that Grumeti had improved quite a lot for his runs on the flat in the summer, before he had gone for his summer break! In relation to the Champion Hurdle, Grumeti looks to be another competitive addition to what is looking a very competitive race on the whole - he can be found at 25/1 Ante-post. The 4 year old hurdling season is notoriously tough, but he takes his racing well and could be underrated, I wouldn't be writing him off.

Lovcen (Right) - Will Be An Interesting Recruit To The Novice Chase Ranks

Lovcen:
This horse came a bit under the radar last year. Having made a promising debut behind Allthekingshorses and Rocky Creek on Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, he progressed to win his next start but then fell at the 2nd at Doncaster when re opposing Rocky Creek. Consequently, we didn't know much about him heading into the spring. A smooth success at Wincanton over Volador suggested he was starting to get his act together and this proved to be correct when he ran well in the Albert Bartlett at The Festival. He wasn't quite good enough to go with the horses at the front end, but stayed on admirably past beaten horses to run into 4th. His next start at Aintree was a superb effort. He matched potentially last years best staying novice hurdler Fingal Bay stride for stride all the way up the run-in, eventually having his measure by simply 'out-staying' him. His reappearance at Aintree was promising on heavy ground off top weight, which was far from ideal! Having turned the final bend travelling nicely, he found nothing off the bridle which suggested all the petrol had been used up to get himself into the race. However, his first run last year was of a similar ilk and it's feasible he needs that first run of the season to sharpen him up. The plan is to run in another hurdle race at the Open Meeting, where one of his owners sponsors the race, before heading novice chasing. I think the key to this horse is good ground, his best runs came in the spring on a sounder surface, so I would expect that to be the case again this year. His main attribute is his stamina and he could use this best to win either the RSA or the 4 Miler which are real war of attrition contests. I don't know whether he is quite top class, he probably wasn't over hurdles, but fences could be the making of him and I expect him to feature prominently in the staying novice chasers division this season. I think he could also be underrated.

Walkon Could Go Close In The Paddy Power

Walkon:
This grey was once considered to be out of the very top draw. He finished 2nd to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle before following up at Aintree in devastating style, a bit like Spirit Son's victory in 2011. However much like Spirit Son, injury struck. It was a long lay-off and whether he has quite recaptured his form from his juvenile days is debatable. His novice chase campaign last year started with a bang with an impressive win at Exeter, but he didn't follow it up all year. Alan King thought it probably flattered him all season. The geldings season finished disappointingly when he finished pulled up in the Scottish National in what was a a real stab in the dark to see if he would appreciate the stamina test. The plan was initially to target a graduation a chase for his reappearance but that appears to have been scrapped and replaced with a tilt at the Paddy Power. 2 1/2 miles is probably as short as he would like it, but he would be a live contender and there has been money for him ante-post - he can be found at 11/1 in places. The Alan King stable are in brilliant form at the moment so it's feasible to say that Walkon will put in a bold effort, bearing in mind how well he went fresh last year. He is rated 143 and second season chasers have a good record in the race too, 143 looks a fair, winnable mark. After that I don't know what the target will be, I suspect his season will be dependant on what happens to his rating after his effort in the Paddy Power. I think he has a handicap win in him somewhere.

Kumbeshwar Looks To Have A Tough Season Ahead

Kumbeshwar:
I love this horse, he reminds me of Lough Derg a bit. Like Lough Derg, he isn't the biggest in stature, but he makes up for it with his attitude. He is all heart, ever-consistent and totally admirable. He has been placed at two Cheltenham Festivals and again, like Lough Derg he runs frequently. His novice chase campaign last year was a successful one, the highlight being his 3rd place finish in the Grand Annual. The seasonal reappearance at Chepstow behind Oiseau De Nuit was solid as ever, running about up to form. He is rated 143 and Alan King thinks he is fully exposed, he will be tough to place this year, but King has stated his will go to all the big meetings and you can guarantee he will run his race. He is a swinger certainty.

Handazan: Juvenile To Follow - Handazan
The link above details information about Handazan in a previous blog. He is a new arrival from the John Oxx yard who has winning form on soft ground. The ground at Aintree was really testing the other day and he ground it out well, the 2nd For Two is rated very highly by Paul Nicholls and I think it was a high quality contest. The fact he handles soft ground was a bonus that day and his jumping improved from his debut at Chepstow where is was a bit scratchy. It wasn't foot perfect, but it was a vast improvement and he appears to be improving all the time, he can be found at 20/1 ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle. I think he is still an unknown quantity, he could be anything. I know Alan King really likes him and he is showing signs of improvement, if he keeps heading the right way he could make up into a really smart hurdler this year. He is yet to be gelded though.

Olofi (Left) - You Would Hope He's Competitive  In Handicap Hurdles Again This Year

Olofi:
Olofi started last year really well when chasing home Brampour in the Greatwood hurdle at the Open Meeting off a mark of 130. He rose to 136 after that run and was fancied to go close once again in valuable handicap hurdles later in the year, but that never quite materialised. He was probably a bit unlucky when falling at Newbury on his next start, he was travelling well when he crashed out two from home. A much better effort when 5th in the Betfair Hurdle on his return to Newbury was just what the doctor ordered, but he then disappointed on his next outing at the Festival in the County Hurdle. It's possible his long season may have taken its toll by the time Cheltenham came around in March. The handicapper has maintained his rating at 136 and I'm starting to wonder if he is well handicapped. However, he is a 6 going on 7 year old so there may still be improvement to come. Also, with age he may require a step-up in trip. This grey is definitely one for the notebook, he should be competitive again this year.

Arabian Heights:
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard and was rated as high as 85 on the flat. Has had one run for current connections when finishing down the field on the flat at Newmarket in May this year. He is only a 3 year old so hopefully there will be more to come in the future, it will be interesting to see where he stands in the juvenile pecking order at Barbury Castle this season.

Any questions or comments, contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown