Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham tomorrow to blog!! Here are a few ideas!
12:45 -2 Miles. JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial
Selection - Vasco Du Ronceray
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| Vasco Du Ronceray - I'm Confident He Can Build On His Ultra Impressive Hereford Victory |
As always this race has strong representatives from the big stables. Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with with Hinterland and Sam Winner, this year he saddles
Far West who attempts to extend the stables winning streak. Far West swept aside subsequent Aintree winner Handazan by 12 lengths at Chepstow last month and the latter is very highly rated by his handler Alan King. He jumped slickly and quickened nicely in the soft ground, but coincidentally that's my main fear as he has never raced on anything other than soft. His action would suggest that he prefers a bit of dig in the ground. That is enough to sway me towards the Nicky Henderson trained
Vasco Du Ronceray, although I don't think there is much between them. I couldn't believe how easy he won at Hereford earlier this month, it may not have been much of a race but his 32 length win couldn't have been more impressive. He jumped, travelled and quickened effortlessly, it was a really classy performance. It will be interesting to see how he ranks in The Seven Barrows juvenile ranks that is notoriously strong year to year. I don't think anything else will be good enough to be honest. Tom George's
Roc D'Apsis is unraced and could be anything, he showed how well he handles juveniles last year with Baby Mix.
Dovils Date is also an unknown quantity, his win at Musselburgh was taking, but Cheltenham and Musselburgh are poles apart.
McVicar has form in the book and is highly rated, but will struggle with a double penalty.
1:20 - 3 Miles. Rewards4racing Novice Chase
Selection - Sire Collonges
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| Sire Collonges (Left) and Sea Of Thunder (Right) Re-oppose After Their Tussle Here Last Month |
Much like the October equivalent of this race, I am finding it difficult to find something to oppose
Sire Collonges. He looked smart here last month and looked to have all the makings of a novice chaser who can go to the top this season. Making his seasonal reappearance, he jumped and travelled like a class horse and apart from Ruby Walsh's minor balance issue between the last two fences, he won well. Paul Nicholls thinks he will improve for that run and if he's proven to be correct, you would expect this grey to go very very close here. I fancy him strongly.
Sea Of Thunder went off a short-priced favourite for that race last month and was beaten fair and square by Sire Collonges who is expected to improve for the run, this horse was probably very forward for the race and he will have to improve past the grey to reverse the form. He is remembered for his fall at the last when clear in a novice hurdle here last year, I personally don't think that form is all that strong, the word overrated is to the forefront of my mind.
Our Father is an interesting recruit to chasing this year, he was a talking horse over hurdles and has always looked like a chaser. He has plenty of scope and I expect him to be better for a fence, however I don't think he has the class of Sire Collonges and his one run at Cheltenham was a disappointing one. Sire Collonges main threat could come from across the Irish Sea in the form of
Sraid Padraig. Tony Martin wouldn't be bringing him here for no reason and I imagine he wants to find out how good he is. This lightly raced 6 year old has solid Point-To-Point form behind Rocky Creek and ran respectively to finish 6th in the Champion Point-To-Point bumper at Fairyhouse, whose roll of honour includes Simonsig and Last Instalment. He was only beaten 10 lengths that day and he more recently made a taking chasing debut at Limerick, staying on well after the last to take the 2 1/2 mile contest by 7 lengths. He was extending at the finish line and I expect the extra 1/2 mile here will suit. It will be interesting to see how the market shapes up. I think Sire Collonges will be short, shorter than 6/4 is a no go area but anything 6/4 or bigger is a decent price. I think he's as close as you will get to bombproof across the 3 day meeting....................apart from Sprinter Sacre of course!
1:55 - 3 Miles 3 Furlongs. Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase
Selection - Bradley
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| Bradley - The Extra 3 Furlongs He Will Encounter Should Suit |
I can't stress how sweet I am on
Bradley, I think he stands an outstanding chance! His latest run here last month was very promising and should hopefully set him up perfectly for this race. The 3 mile trip was probably a bit sharp, he wasn't massively outpaced but always seemed to be niggled from half-way down the back straight. Awkward leaps at the 3rd and 2nd last didn't help his chances, but he was gaining on the leaders towards the finish. Paddy Brennan actually stopped riding before the line, beaten 6 lengths actually reads beaten 3 or 4 lengths. I think he's fairly treated at the weights off a mark of 133 and I expect him to improve for his run last month, the extra 3 furlongs should also be to his advantage too. He is a horse I have followed for a while and although he has a lot in his favour here, but I worry he finds it difficult to get his head in front.
Galaxy Rock is a horse that tends to have one race a year which he's lined up for, it appears it's a bit of a bonus if he runs into a place in his other efforts. He won this race last year off 135 and bids to retain off 141, I worry that is a bit high and I think 'his day' was last time out.
Harry The Viking put in a cracking effort to be runner-up here in the 4 miler at the Festival, he has a mark of 142 and is open to improvement. He was over the top in the Scottish National so put a line through that run, with course form under his belt and with another years maturity, I fancy him to go close.
Carruthers,
Fruity O'Rooney,
Chicago Grey and
Teaforthree are all paying the price for their efforts in high profile races last year and are surely too highly weighted to win here. I think there are better handicapped horses in the race and it's likely this race is being used as a stepping stone to the Nationals later in the season.
Master Overseer was a gallant winner of the Midlands National in March and has subsequently been raised 7lb, off 133 there is a chance this lightly raced 9 year old could still be improving.
Fredo has run some admirable races here, particularly at the Festival. I fancy him to do the same without making the shake-up.
2:35 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Paddy Power Gold Cup
Selection - Grands Crus
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| Grands Crus - Potentially The Best Handicapped Horse In The Race |
There isn't a lot that I can say which hasn't been said already about
Grands Crus, I'd imagine you are sick of people tipping this headstrong grey! Potentially the best handicapped horse in the race off 157, I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles is ideal. He travels and jumps superbly and the a strong run race it will suit. I'm on at 6's and am sitting pretty with the 2/1 or 9/4 around now. It's a ridiculous price and there are horses which represent better value to me. Another horse there isn't a lot I can say that hasn't already been said is
Hunt Ball. The fairytale story of last season, he will have to improve again to win this. How much improvement he has left in him is debatable. The Aintree form isn't the strongest and his win at Cheltenham was probably in the weakest race at the Festival. You can't take those away from him, but I think he may be found wanting a bit here.
Walkon fits all the trends. Rating band is roughly 140-147, he is rated 143. 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 7, Walkon is a 7 year old. Last 5 winners all carried less than 11 stone, Walkon carries 10-6. 4 of the last 5 winners were second season chasers, Walkon is a second season chaser. He is also best when mad fresh and this is his seasonal reappearance/ The stats don't lie and he should go close, the King stable has also been in good form recently which is a bonus. 8/1 is a bit skimpy for me bearing in mind he is up against two potential Gold Cup horses in the form of Grands Crus and Hunt Ball. He is probably a notch or two below them and I would be looking for 10/1 to be interested.
Nadiya De La Vega is looking to follow up after her victory here last month and I think she has a squeak. Similar to Walkon, she fits most of the trends but she isn't the most trustworthy and has been inconsistent in the past. Putting two runs together hasn't been her forte so far in her career, consequently she's not for me.
Al Ferof was a late entry into the race by the champion trainer, I don't think they quite know what to do with this grey. His optimum trip is unknown and I fear this race wasn't originally the plan which I don't like. I also think he isn't the best handicapped horse, 159 looks high enough and I think he will struggle off that mark. On the plus side, he likes Cheltenham and he appeared to want further than 2 miles last year. Backing
Divers is a risk, he's very inconsistent. I don't think
Michael Flips is quite good enough to win a race like this, his form suggests he is always in contention, but rarely winning the race. Consequently, I think he will get found out here. This race is not often won by a horse who has been on the go in the summer such as
The Disengager.
Quantitativeeasing and
Poquelin have brilliant Cheltenham records and have been placed in this race in the past. They look high enough in the handicap but may run into a place.
Triolo D'Alene was fancied for the race Hunt Ball won at the Festival but flopped, I didn't think he liked the hustle and bustle of a major handicap and that puts me off here.
My selections for the day:
12:45 - Vasco Du Ronceray
1:20 - Sire Collonges
1:55 - Bradley
2:35 - Grands Crus
3:05 - Knight Pass, Star Neuville (Undecided)
3:40 - Tanerko Emery (If It Runs)
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