The Open Meeting Exclusive - Sunday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll still be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham on Sunday to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

1:10 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
Selection - Captain Conan

Captain Conan - Expected To Make It To The Top Of The Novice Chasing Ranks This Year

Nicky Henderson has been very public in saying how he adores this horse. His novice hurdle campaign was ultimately a successful one, a placed finished at Aintree followed a debut victory in the Tolworth at Sandown in January. The Aintree run behind his stable mate Darlan is solid form, more so than his Tolworth win where he beat Colour Squadron. Whatever Captain Conan did last year was a bonus because he has always been thought of as a chaser. I hear he has been schooling well at home and a stiff 2 miles should suit, I have a niggling doubt that he will want further in time though, he may lack that killer turn of foot over 2 miles. However, I don't think that will be a problem here, there isn't much pace in this race. Sire Du Grugy is the only horse that may have the pace to do Capatain Conan for toe, he is a genuine 2 miler but I wouldn't say he has a killer turn of foot. He had cracking handicap hurdle form last year, notably when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle. He has the scope to make up into a really nice chaser and measured his fences accurately on his debut at Kempton. I worry he is best going right handed. Third Intention would prefer further in my opinion, although he was caught up the run-in here last month. That wasn't the first time he has been caught when clear after the last, Houblon Des Obeaux wore him down at Haydock two years ago, personally I would stick a pair of blinkers on him. I think he is a very frustrating horse to follow, the consistency is there, which I like, but he looks hard to win with and that puts me off. He jumped well on his debut, maybe with too much zest which may have cost him later in the race, but he stays 2 1/2 and I don't think he likes being alone in front. Not for me I'm afraid! Rebel Rebellion ground it out on his chasing debut at Exeter. I thought he had a bit of an ungamely action and didn't look a natural. He jumped well from the front and was barely headed as he stayed on best to get the better of the Bold Henry. However that horse failed to frank the form on Wednesday and he looked like he would need further than 2 miles to me, he ran over 2 3/4 whilst with Charlie Mann, he also has to carry a penalty which won't help. He looks up against it here but he may do ok bearing in mind he will jump well from the front, I fear he will give the better horses a toe into the race, the strong pace he may set will suit horses in behind down to the ground. His Excellency wore down Third Intention to win here last month, this is a much tougher race and looks to have each-way claims at best. I will have to assess the market nearer the time, but I think Sire De Grugy could go off a decent price if the bookmakers get sucked into the Captain Conan hype.

2:50 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Hurdle
Selection - Darlan

Darlan - Champion Hurdle The Target And Horses Of That Mould Have Good Record In The Race, No Value In His Price Though

Darlan is being trained for a crack at the Champion Hurdle this year and Nicky Henderson is pleased with how he has matured over the summer, he looks a really promising sort. Carrying top weight is always a concern, but horses carrying large weights have a good record in this race and have gone on to progress into Champion Hurdle horses. Examples are: Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Brampour last year (carried 11-11 without Harry Derham's claim). It would be fair to say that Darlan fits that mould. I think he is the best horse in the race, will appreciate a strongly ran 2 miles and has a great chance, I have got 5/1 but 3/1 or 5/2 is a ridiculous price, like Grands Crus it represents no value! Cash And Go is a grade 1 winner and had strong form when with Edward O'Grady in Ireland. His transfer to Nicky Henderson's yard is interesting and he looks open to improvement off a mark of 141, however he will have to improve a lot to get the better of Darlan on all given novice hurdle form last year. He receives 10lb off his stable mate here, I personally don't think that's enough. He beat Dylan Ross by only half a length at Leopardstown and Dylan Ross was well down the field in the Supreme Novice, behind Darlan. Domination is the unexposed horse in the race who looks to be on a steep upward curve. His second to Baily Green by a nose over hurdles at Killarney was a decent effort, the winner has gone on to rack up a 5 timer over fences. Beaten a nose by a horse now rated 145 over fences and he runs here off 136, he could be well in on that form. I'm not a huge It's A Gimme fan, but I expect him to run well here on the back of his 2nd at Ascot 2 weeks ago, but Mcmanus has never won this race with his 2nd string and I am confident McCoy will side with the first string Darlan. Moon Dice has had a show of confidence from his trainer during the week. He runs off a pound lower here than he did last year when he was 4th, I think the handicapper still has him in his grasp. This is also a second thought after a disappointing start to his novice chase campaign earlier in the year which is a negative in my eyes. Prospect Wells will have the race run to suit and I think is a solid each way bet, I worry this may come to quick for him after last weeks ding dong battle with Zarkandar. Bothy and Olofi have run admirably in big handicaps, I love their consistency, but I feel the handicapper has them. I don't fancy Kazlian because I don't like backing horses who ran in the Fred Winter in this race, I don't think their quite classy enough otherwise they would have run in the Triumph. The same could be argued for Vendor, however Alan King rates him on a similar level to his top juveniles last year Grumeti and Balder Succes. He could be potentially well handicapped but he pulled very hard at Aintree last month and I wonder whether he would be better suited by a smaller field. Dark Lover won easily in a conditional jockeys handicap here last month, he is obviously on the upgrade but he will have to improve again to win here. Ryan Mahon takes 3lb off which assists and I think he has each way claims. Glam Gerry is my each way bet at a price. 33/1 looks a bit big for me considering he was placed behind Salut Flo at the Festival last year, he won the flat race when Go Native made his comeback and I feel he may stay on into a place.

3:25 - 2 Miles 5 Furlongs. Hyde Novices Hurdle
Selection - Village Vic

Village Vic (Black Sleeves) - Ticks All The Boxes

In my opinion, the form from the October equivalent of this race will stack up well come the spring. Ante-post Neptune Hurdle favourite The New One stayed on strongly to to get the better of Village Vic by 3 lengths, the third, the useful Thomas Crapper, was 21 lengths further behind! Phillip Hobbs rates this gelding very highly, his bumper campaign tailed off a bit last year after a cracking effort to come within a nose of the classy Shutthefrontdoor in February. However, his trainer has admitted he should have put him away after that run and not gone to Cheltenham and Punchestown in he spring. The run last month suggested he has overcome those poor efforts and is back on track, that piece of course form may stand him in good stead here against less experienced horses. He is the safe bet in the race and looks a solid contender. Fox Run had a large reputation in the Point To Point field and made a slick debut success at Worcester for his new stable. He showed good pace to quicken away from the consistent Chargen, it was a really taking performance. You're taking a punt on his untapped potential but he could be anything. Wingtips is my Under The Radar Juvenile for the season, he ran well to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and followed it up with a solid 3rd in the Punchestown equivalent. He was given a bad ride on his seasonal reappearance when 2/9 fav at Fairyhouse earlier in the month, it will have sharpened him up for this though. He has a chance if he can repeat his Triumph Hurdle form. I Shot The Sheriff, apart from being fantastically named (for you Bob Marley fans out there!), showed a smart turn of foot when winning at Wetherby on his hurdling debut and looks to have improved for the summer. He was quite a weak bumper horse last year and he has also moved to David Pipe's stable during the off season. I wouldn't put him out of it on the back of that win, he could be a horse at a price that may warrant some respect. According To Trev won the 3 mile novice hurdle here last month, he looked slow and may get outpaced here when stepping back in trip. Also the race looked poor and he has to carry a penalty, not a lot in his favour in my opinion. Bondage is another horse who won here last month in a 2 1/2 handicap hurdle, McCoy gave it a great ride that day but will be deserting him for the JP McManus owned Dursey Sound here. He also carries a penalty and is likely to get out classed. The fore mentioned Dursey Sound will have the champion jockey on board, his form isn't the strongest and will need to improve to win here but he could be anything.

My selections for the day:
1:10 - Captain Conan
1:45 - Malt Master, Well Sharp, Close House (Undecided)
2:20 - Sprinter Sacre
2:50 - Darlan
3:25 - Village Vic
4:00 - Fascino Rustico

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

The Horse Racing Blog Ten REALLY Dark Horses To Follow National Hunt Season 2012/2013

In this post I will look to inform you about horses I feel have properly gone under the radar for the coming season. I think they could cause a splash at some point this winter and I hope they can all win us a few quid!

1. Broadbackbob

Highly talented novice hurdler last year who was thought of as a serious 2 mile 5 furlong Neptune Novice Hurdle contender. Bought from a small Irish trainer at the beginning of last year after a 6th place finish in the Aintree Champion Bumper the previous Spring, Broadbackbob started life in England with two very easy victories. His first was at Ascot in November over 2 miles where he stayed on better than subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes to beat him by a comfortable length. Highly rated Paul Nicholls novice hurdler Ted Spread was back in 4th. His second came at Newbury in December. He sauntered home to destroy the opposition by 11 lengths over 2 miles 3 furlongs defeating promising hurdlers Polisky and Carrigmorna King. Carrigmorna King was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund novice hurdle final at Sandown the last Saturday before the Festival later in the season. His next target was the Neptune Novices Hurdle Trial on Festival Trials day at Cheltenham in January. Going off a short priced favourite at 13-8 he was unlucky to finish second. Having travelled into the race like the winner he jumped the last in front and stumbled badly on landing losing momentum. Batonnier was able to pick up the pieces and charge up the finishing hill to best effect to defeat Broadbackbob by 3 lengths. It was later revealed that Broadbackbob had chipped a hock while racing at Cheltenham and that would go some way to explaining why he hung left the whole way up the run-in that day. Finishing a 3 length second was a pretty good effort with all things considered. Unfortunately, the injury meant he was out for the season. If he had made his target at the Festival I'm convinced he wouldn't have sniffed Simonsig, but think he would have probably been placed. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter. I think he is a welcome recruit to the novice chase ranks and he could feature in many of the main races this season. He is my idea of the the 2 mile 5 furlong Jewson Novice Chase winner currently, but I would expect that 2 1/2 miles is about as far he would want to go. He has shown he has plenty of speed to win races over 2 miles so dropping back to the shortest trip is also an option. However, Nicky Henderson is potentially double handed in those ranks with Simonsig and Tetlami maybe going novice chasing too this year. I would like to think he is more than good enough to mix it with the very best novice chasers this season without maybe being quite good enough to take on the Simonsigs of this world.

2. Hollow Tree

Brave, tough, game, never give up-er. All words to describe a horse that could take up the mantle of being the new 'Lough Derg'. Hollow Tree was a new recruit off the flat to Donald McCain last year and proved not to be the most talented of last years juveniles, but Jesus he was genuine in defeat. Whatever was asked of him he duly did his best and you couldn't help but admire the horse! He was progressive last year. After running a solid enough race in defeat behind Hinterland at the Open Meeting in November, he went and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Chepstow. Behind him in 2nd that day was subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame. His next task was a bit more difficult when competing in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Festival Trials Day. In hindsight, the race had massive strength in depth with classy animals such as Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix all entered. Once again Hollow Tree ran a really solid race to finish third beaten 3 1/2 lengths. In the actual event two months later Hollow Tree briefly lead as they turned for home after squeezing up the inside of Sadlers Risk. As was the case all year the better horses had another gear and accelerated past him but he plugged on for 7th beaten a total of 10 lengths. I would imagine handicapping will be his game next year. He currently has a rating of 142. I wouldn't be surprised if he is running off a winnable mark. Sadlers Risk who beat him 3/4 length at Cheltenham is rated 148. I don't think he is 6 pounds better than Hollow Tree, he wasn't even a length better than him in the Triumph Hurdle.

3. Teelin Star

I don't know much about this horse. However, I do know he was seriously hot property in the Irish point to point ranks. In the Champion Point to Point Bumper at the Fairyhouse Festival, where previous winners include Simonsig and Last Instalment, he was sent off a red hot favourite at odds of 8-11. The market confidence came after two victories earlier in the season which he had won by a distance and they sounded very very impressive. He was all the rage going into the race at Fairyhouse but wasn't in the shake up. After the amount of market confidence, he flopped horrendously and was beaten 20 lengths into 8th. He got his career back on track with a win at the Listowel Festival the other day. He made all and was never challenged. He wasn't a runaway winner, but he was a very easy 3 length winner from Sam Da Vinci. This horse is a real unknown quantity this year. What he's capable of I don't know. He seems to be a 2 1/2 mile horse but I wouldn't be surprised if he is stepped up to 3 miles, he obviously has winning form in point to points over 3 miles. He has been ridden from the front in his two starts under rules proper and this tells me he stays well. Whether he will stick to bumpers or go novice hurdling is another question I don't know the answer too. The verdict: Keep an eye out. Those guys in the point to point fields are no mugs and know what they're talking about!

4. Baile Anrai

Baile Anrai was a progressive novice chaser last season who I think may have a big handicap win in him at some point this season . Last year he started off as a novice hurdler, his first outing of the season finishing a 'best of the rest' 2nd behind Fingal Bay in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow in October. A decision to head novice chasing was probably made before the season started, his run at Chepstow was designed to blow the cobwebs away and get him race fit for the season. His debut over fences was in the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices Chase at Wincanton. It was a really tough ask and he was about 20 lengths off the pace when he fell at the 4th last, the winner Silviniaco Conti progressed to be a really smart staying novice chaser later in the year. His second and third attempts over fences where much easier tasks and produced two pretty comprehensive victories around Towcester and Leicester. winning by a combined total of 20 lengths. He was then stepped up in class again to renew rivalries with Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown Novice Chase over 3 miles at Ascot. The race was won by Invictus with RSA winner Bob's Worth back in 2nd, Silviniaco Conti was further down the field in 4th. However although Baile Anrai fell at the 4th last, he was right on the coat tails of the main pack, was going well enough and I don't think he would have been out of the picture if he had stood up. In his next run at the Festival in the JLT Speciality 3m handicap chase he ran no sort of race and was a distant 11th beaten 38 lengths. I think the big crowds and the whole occasion in general got to him as he seemed quite buzzy beforehand and he was probably beaten before he set off. Put a line through that run. He finished the season with a very convincing win in a Market Rasen novice chase by 24 lengths, though it wasn't much of a contest. I would imagine he will go handicapping this season. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think he is well in off that mark. At the age of 8 going on 9 I think he has an advantage over other second season chasers as he is probably more mature and this may help him in the hustly bustly handicaps this winter.

5. Wingtips

In the 2012 Triumph hurdle everybody saw the main protagonists at the head of affairs. Countrywide Flame, Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Hisabaat. But who can name me the horse that finished 5th off the top of their head? The answer is Wingtips. He was an Irish raider trained by Tony Martin at a price of 100-1. While the horses we have all taken notice of headed to Aintree and Punchestown to frank the form. The Punchestown renewal had a certain Wingtips finishing 3rd at 10-1, again running about up to form. Wingtips didn't win a race last year and can still claim his novice status. With another years maturity both physically and mentally Wingtips could be in a position of strength when taking on younger horses with a years experience in the locker. I dont know what Tony Martin has planned for his horse this year. He has a rating of 138, which will mean he will carry weights towards the top end of the handicaps. Hisabaat is a horse that has beaten him twice and is only rated 5 pounds higher at 143, therefore I don't consider him to be well handicapped.This tells me that another year novice hurdling could be on the cards. However, we have seen Tony Martin line up a big handicap win before, with the likes of Dun Doire and Xenophon at the Cheltenham Festival for example. If anyone knows how to find a handicap snip, Tony Martin is at the top of the list. But is Wingtips too highly rated? He may have to lose before he can win next year.

6. Rigidity

Rigidity - Pictured Centre

I think this horse is underrated. He ran some very good races in the most competitive 2 mile handicap hurdles of the year last season. He was second to Raya Star in the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot, jumping the last near enough in front, Raya Star beat him only half a length. He was then 8th in the Betfair Hurdle behind Zarkandar at Newbury in February. He was bang there at the third last and was just starting to fade at the second last when Darlan's crashing fall severely hampered him and ended all chances of victory. I think he did well to plug on and finish 8th in the end. A stinker in the Martin Pipe at the Festival followed, I don't know why, but he was so bad it was untrue. Something can't have been right. Anyway, I don't think this horse is good enough to be winning Betfair Hurdles and so on, but I do think he may be good enough to win a competitive handicap somewhere else in the season over 2 miles or maybe 2 1/2 miles. His last run at Cheltenham was over 2 1/2 miles and I think this may be his ideal trip as he has been slightly outpaced when the race has hotted up in the 2 mile handicap hurdles. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think off that mark, bearing in mind he still only 5, there is still improvement to come.

7. Grandouet

Just before I start, I have to admit it pains me to reveal my opinion on Grandouet. This is due to my judgement agreeing with one of my racing comrades. I think this is the first time we have seen eye to eye on anything to do with horses, basically because he is a blind follower of the Nicky Henderson yard (although having seen him play cricket, you would understand why he would need to do it blindly!) I also resent the success he had at the Festival last year, but wasn't surprised he wasn't able to tip a winner that wasn't trained by his 'man crush' Mr Henderson. I believe Grandouet to be the forgotten horse of the upcoming national hunt season. He was extremely unlucky to fall at the second last at Wincanton when running all over Celestial Halo in early November last year. Reappearing in an intermediate hurdle at Haydock two weeks later he won doing handstands, pulling effortlessly clear of Marsh Warbler and Rigidity to win by 8 lengths. He was then stepped up in class to compete in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December, a well known Champion Hurdle trial. There was a question mark over the geldings ability to get up the stiff finishing hill at Cheltenham after he appeared to fade away in the Triumph Hurdle the previous March. That was positively swept away with a crushing win when he powered away up the hill to get the better of subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Overturn by 4 lengths. The Champion Hurdle proved that fom to be pretty strong. However, I find it debatable how strong it is when you look at the bigger picture. Was this years Champion Hurdle result a true piece of form? It could be argued that it is, but I don't think Rock On Ruby is 5 1/2 lengths better than Hurricane Fly - so I feel the form is quite muddling. Nonetheless, regardless of how good Overturn is, Grandouet could only beat what was put in front of him. The injury he picked up last year to prevent him competing in the Champion Hurdle was obviously very serious. Nicky Henderson was quoted as saying at his owners open day that: 'there had been some scary moments'. Thankfully, it appears he has made a full recovery and if he recaptures the form he was in last year, I see no reason why he can't be a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle crown in 2013.

8. Comeonginger

If Tistory is the highest rated novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard for this upcoming season, Comeonginger fills that position at Paul Nicholl's stables. Owned by Paul Barber, he has won two point to points, never coming off the bridle in the second, his jockey described his win as 'an exercise gallop'. He is a full brother to ill-fated Cheltenham Festival winner Brindisi Breeze. That's about as much as I can tell you to be honest! He's certainly an exciting novice hurdler for the 2012/2013 season.

9. Oscara Dara

Oscara Dara is one of the horses who changed stables after Alan Fleming migrated to Ireland. He was moved to Nicky Henderson's yard and caused a bit of a splash. His last run for Fleming was a second place finish in a relatively hot bumper behind his current stable mate Mono Man. Following a set-back, his debut for Henderson was delayed for just over a year, reappearing at Sandown on the best day of the year (9th March is my birthday) he won very impressively by 20 lengths. For his next task he was stepped up in trip to tackle the best novice hurdlers around last year at the Aintree Festival, where he finished 4th behind stable mates Darlan and Captain Conan. Still relatively fresh he was sent straight to Punchestown for a 2 mile novice hurdle. Sent off a short priced 11-8 favourite he stayed on well to assert on the run-in to score by 3 1/2 lengths. Henderson said on his owners open day that the horse had matured well over the summer, he predicted that he would be much improved this year. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter, behind the stables most promising novices Simonsig and Captain Conan, he probably plays third fiddle. He has plenty of pace but I think a step up in trip will benefit him, he should be a smashing 2 1/2 miler. Nicky Henderson was very positive at his open day: 'If everything goes to plan, he's a very serious prospect'.

10. Samain

Another horse I can't tell you much about I'm afraid! He's won 3 bumpers in Ireland since he joined Willie Mullins after being purchased by Gigginstown Stud. He was a hot prospect for the Champion Bumper the year before last before he picked up an injury. The injury kept him off the track throughout last year but he's expected to return this winter. He's now 6 going on 7 so he will be one of the older horses going novice hurdling this year. A wiser head and advanced physical maturity should help him when competing against his less experienced rivals. He looks like a chaser in the making but whether he will head straight novice chasing this year and skip novice hurdling I don't know. In his bumpers the gelding out-stayed his rivals. He never accelerated away from them to be visually impressive, but was always in total command at the winning post. I just hope his injury wasn't so severe that he will never be able to fulfil his potential.

Under The Radar Juvenile

In the 2012 triumph hurdle everybody saw the main protagonists at the head of affairs. Countrywide Flame, Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Hisabaat.

But who can name me the horse that finished 5th off the top of their head? The answer is Wingtips. Irish raider trained by Tony Martin at a price of 100-1!

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=790032#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

While the horses we have all taken notice of headed to Aintree and Punchestown to frank the form. The Punchestown renewal had a certain Wingtips finishing 3rd at 10-1 again running about up to form, considering Wingtips didn't win a race last year he can still claim his novice status. With another years maturity both physically and mentally Wingtips could be in a position of strength when taking on the younger horses with a years experience in the locker.

I do not know what Tony Martin has planned for this horse this year, but I cant imagine he has a rating that will mean he carries stride stopping weights in handicaps compared to his higher rated colleagues who have got their head in front. He may have a big 2m/2m 4f handicap win in him.

We have seen Tony Martin line up a big handicap win before with the likes of Dun Doire at the Cheltenham Festival for example. Does Wingtips fit that mould?

Interesting.