Cheltenham International Meeting - Friday 14th December

For the first time this season, Cheltenham will hold a fixture where I'm not in attendance. Although I would love to be there, I'm looking forward to watching from the comfort of my living room, in the warmth with an endless supply of hot beverages throughout the day.

Cheltenham

12:15 - Shloer Novices Chase

Of the 7 runners, you could make a case for at least 5 of these. A Nicky Henderson novice chaser is always respected and in Broadbackbob he saddles a horse with lofty expectations, he is considered a real RSA type (can be found as short as 14/1 with Skybet) by his handler and his smooth debut victory at Plumpton was impressive. Last year the Neptune was target but a chipped hock kept him off the track in the spring, missing that engagement may have been a blessing in disguise bearing in mind how his stablemate Simonsig turned the contest into a procession. He has the strongest appeal of these and is my idea of the most likely winner, but 6/5 is keeping me away, that's plenty short enough. Super Duty had good form in novice hurdles last year, most noticeably when 2nd to Simonsig at Aintree. A bad mistake 2 out scuppered his chances of victory although Simonsig was still hard on the bridle whilst upsides, it's unlikely he would won anyway. His novice chasing campaign started with a nice pipe opener at Carlisle, on all form he should of won but the trip was on the sharp side and his second placed finish probably wasn't the worst effort. That effort set him up for a much improved run at Haydock last time out. Poungach had his measure that day and although they pulled 28 lengths clear of useful horses such as Gullinbursti and Knock A Hand, it may be flattering as the ground was soft and would provide an explanation to why they finished so strung out. On that line of form he has a chance but others appeal more at the prices, 11/4 is a bit short for what he has achieved so far.

Hildisvini (Orange) - He looks to be a horse going in the right direction and merits a step up in class

Hildisvini has racked up a two timer over fences so far this season, subsequently he must give weight away to all his rivals here. Both victories have come at Huntingdon, with Well Regarded from the Emma Lavelle stable twice 2nd, Forgotten Gold was also 3rd. He will need to step up to compete here, but he is a horse going in the right direction and has merited a step up in class. We will find out a lot more about him and at the prices, he presents the best value to me at 7/1 generally. Rebel Rebellion will be back in his comfort zone stepping back up to 2 and a half miles after being outpaced behind Captain Conan here last month over 2, his victory at Exeter over 2 and a half was quite taking considering he led from start to finish. On that basis he may be hard to pass here, but the 2nd and 3rd haven't franked the form since and there's every chance he will be outclassed. Others are preferred. Forgotten Gold's win over 3 miles at Aintree last time out has worked out ok, First Fandango was behind him that day and has won since, but it isn't the strongest of form and coming back to 2 and a half here isn't ideal, he appeared to better the further he went at Aintree. Decent Cheltenham form is in the book but he's in a similar boat to Rebel Rebellion, I don't think he will be good enough for this.

Advice - Hildisvini - 1pt Win @8/1 Paddy Power

1:20 - CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Handicap Hurdle

Dark Lover is sure to be popular after his course and distance win in October and he was far from disgraced last month when stepping up in class in the Racing Post hurdle, he was only beaten 8 lengths. This is more similar to the October contest and if he can repeat his last two efforts, he stands a very good chance. The form is in the book and siding against the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh duo hasn't been advisable this season. 9/2 isn't the best value but in my opinion isn't the worst either. Strong claims. Turn Over Sivola was turned over when odds on on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton but then put the record straight at Plumpton last month with a 7 length victory when odds on once again. He has only been raised a pound for that victory and may have something in hand, but this is tougher and I personally think he has found his level. Bold Chief is a lightly raced 7 year old who is open to further improvement, he has claims in the back of his 2nd here in April behind Captain Sunshine. He reappeared at Kempton when he weakened tamely and was eventually pulled up, he also comes back in trip here which could be to his advantage, but there is enough to put me off. Tom Du Lys and Top Of The Range both make their seasonal bows for Nicky Henderson and have claims, the formers first run for the trainer last year came at Sandown on desperate ground, although he is French bred a return to a sounder surface here may assist. Nampour is likely to go from the front and has a chance but others are preferred whilst Dan Breen still has a win in him somewhere but this is competitive and he's more exposed than others. A tentative vote goes to Falcarragh. Tim Vaughan has had him on the go throughout the summer but his consistency is admirable and shows no sign of relenting. 4th in a 4 year old hurdle won by the talented Court Minstrel here in October was a good effort and he followed this up with a solid 3rd here again in November behind Ifandbutwhynot, the 2nd has won since. This looks a competitive contest once again and he has gone up 3lb for his last effort, but he is certain to run his race and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Falcarragh - 1pt EW @Bet365

1:55 - Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase

Midnight Chase is high enough in the handicap but returns to his favourite track for a race he has won before, 4/1 is a tad short but doesn't lack value.

I think you've got to look atwhich horses are using this race as a stepping stone to the Welsh National later in the month, consequently s few won't want to be showing there hands too early here. Bradley was a bit of an unlucky loser here last month when being nabbed by a 25/1 shot in ground that was testing, a drop back in 2 furlongs probably isn't ideal considering he was outpaced over 3 miles here in October. He can be found as short as 10/1 for the Welsh National but I don't know which race Fergal O'Brien is targeting, this race is worth £25,000 so if this is the target he does have strong claims. Quartz De Thaix is a much improved horse this year, Venetia Williams may have finally got the bottom of him as stamina tests have brought out the best in him. Chepstow is his target so it's unlikely he will want to play his hand here. Master Overseer has Chepstow on his radar and must improve after what was a dire run at Haydock last time out, whilst Billie Magern needs to put some disappointing efforts behind him. Becauseicouldntsee has a couple of 2nd placed finishes at the Festival to his name, he prefers the better ground he finds outside of Ireland but he runs off a career high mark of 145 and probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race, but wouldn't be without a chance. Saint Are is a bit of an Aintree specialist and prefers a flat track, can't help but feel this is a bit of an after thought following an early exit from the Hennessy 2 weeks ago. Planet Of Sound is gradually falling down the handicap and is off a workable mark of 152 here, he won the Haldon Gold Cup of this mark 3 years ago. His seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was a tame effort which is off-putting and the Hobbs team aren't in the best from, it's enough to make me look elsewhere. Which leaves course specialist Midnight Chase who looks to be handicapped to the hill off a mark of 160, but doesn't know how to run a bad race. He was ahead of Planet Of Sound in the Charlie Hall, although he ran in snatches it was an good effort considering both the 1st and 2nd have won since. This is a weaker contest, back at his favourite track in a race he has won before.

Advice - Midnight Chase - 3pt Win @4/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh.

@JoshRWDown

Paddy Power Exclusive - Saturday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham tomorrow to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

12:45 -2 Miles. JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial
Selection - Vasco Du Ronceray

Vasco Du Ronceray - I'm Confident He Can Build On His Ultra Impressive Hereford Victory

As always this race has strong representatives from the big stables. Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with with Hinterland and Sam Winner, this year he saddles Far West who attempts to extend the stables winning streak. Far West swept aside subsequent Aintree winner Handazan by 12 lengths at Chepstow last month and the latter is very highly rated by his handler Alan King. He jumped slickly and quickened nicely in the soft ground, but coincidentally that's my main fear as he has never raced on anything other than soft. His action would suggest that he prefers a bit of dig in the ground. That is enough to sway me towards the Nicky Henderson trained Vasco Du Ronceray, although I don't think there is much between them. I couldn't believe how easy he won at Hereford earlier this month, it may not have been much of a race but his 32 length win couldn't have been more impressive. He jumped, travelled and quickened effortlessly, it was a really classy performance. It will be interesting to see how he ranks in The Seven Barrows juvenile ranks that is notoriously strong year to year. I don't think anything else will be good enough to be honest. Tom George's Roc D'Apsis is unraced and could be anything, he showed how well he handles juveniles last year with Baby Mix.  Dovils Date is also an unknown quantity, his win at Musselburgh was taking, but Cheltenham and Musselburgh are poles apart. McVicar has form in the book and is highly rated, but will struggle with a double penalty.

1:20 - 3 Miles. Rewards4racing Novice Chase
Selection - Sire Collonges

Sire Collonges (Left) and Sea Of Thunder (Right) Re-oppose  After Their Tussle Here Last Month

Much like the October equivalent of this race, I am finding it difficult to find something to oppose Sire Collonges. He looked smart here last month and looked to have all the makings of a novice chaser who can go to the top this season. Making his seasonal reappearance, he jumped and travelled like a class horse and apart from Ruby Walsh's minor balance issue between the last two fences, he won well. Paul Nicholls thinks he will improve for that run and if he's proven to be correct, you would expect this grey to go very very close here. I fancy him strongly. Sea Of Thunder went off a short-priced favourite for that race last month and was beaten fair and square by Sire Collonges who is expected to improve for the run, this horse was probably very forward for the race and he will have to improve past the grey to reverse the form. He is remembered for his fall at the last when clear in a novice hurdle here last year, I personally don't think that form is all that strong, the word overrated is to the forefront of my mind. Our Father is an interesting recruit to chasing this year, he was a talking horse over hurdles and has always looked like a chaser. He has plenty of scope and I expect him to be better for a fence, however I don't think he has the class of Sire Collonges and his one run at Cheltenham was a disappointing one. Sire Collonges main threat could come from across the Irish Sea in the form of Sraid Padraig. Tony Martin wouldn't be bringing him here for no reason and I imagine he wants to find out how good he is. This lightly raced 6 year old has solid Point-To-Point form behind Rocky Creek and ran respectively to finish 6th in the Champion Point-To-Point bumper at Fairyhouse, whose roll of honour includes Simonsig and Last Instalment. He was only beaten 10 lengths that day and he more recently made a taking chasing debut at Limerick, staying on well after the last to take the 2 1/2 mile contest by 7 lengths. He was extending at the finish line and I expect the extra 1/2 mile here will suit. It will be interesting to see how the market shapes up. I think Sire Collonges will be short, shorter than 6/4 is a no go area but anything 6/4 or bigger is a decent price. I think he's as close as you will get to bombproof across the 3 day meeting....................apart from Sprinter Sacre of course!

1:55 - 3 Miles 3 Furlongs. Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase
Selection - Bradley

Bradley - The Extra 3 Furlongs He Will Encounter Should Suit

I can't stress how sweet I am on Bradley, I think he stands an outstanding chance! His latest run here last month was very promising and should hopefully set him up perfectly for this race. The 3 mile trip was probably a bit sharp, he wasn't massively outpaced but always seemed to be niggled from half-way down the back straight. Awkward leaps at the 3rd and 2nd last didn't help his chances, but he was gaining on the leaders towards the finish. Paddy Brennan actually stopped riding before the line, beaten 6 lengths actually reads beaten 3 or 4 lengths. I think he's fairly treated at the weights off a mark of 133 and I expect him to improve for his run last month, the extra 3 furlongs should also be to his advantage too. He is a horse I have followed for a while and although he has a lot in his favour here, but I worry he finds it difficult to get his head in front. Galaxy Rock is a horse that tends to have one race a year which he's lined up for, it appears it's a bit of a bonus if he runs into a place in his other efforts. He won this race last year off 135 and bids to retain off 141, I worry that is a bit high and I think 'his day' was last time out. Harry The Viking put in a cracking effort to be runner-up here in the 4 miler at the Festival, he has a mark of 142 and is open to improvement. He was over the top in the Scottish National so put a line through that run, with course form under his belt and with another years maturity, I fancy him to go close. Carruthers, Fruity O'Rooney, Chicago Grey and Teaforthree are all paying the price for their efforts in high profile races last year and are surely too highly weighted to win here. I think there are better handicapped horses in the race and it's likely this race is being used as a stepping stone to the Nationals later in the season. Master Overseer was a gallant winner of the Midlands National in March and has subsequently been raised 7lb, off 133 there is a chance this lightly raced 9 year old could still be improving. Fredo has run some admirable races here, particularly at the Festival. I fancy him to do the same without making the shake-up.

2:35 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Paddy Power Gold Cup
Selection - Grands Crus

Grands Crus - Potentially The Best Handicapped Horse In The Race

There isn't a lot that I can say which hasn't been said already about Grands Crus, I'd imagine you are sick of people tipping this headstrong grey! Potentially the best handicapped horse in the race off 157, I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles is ideal. He travels and jumps superbly and the a strong run race it will suit. I'm on at 6's and am sitting pretty with the 2/1 or 9/4 around now. It's a ridiculous price and there are horses which represent better value to me. Another horse there isn't a lot I can say that hasn't already been said is Hunt Ball. The fairytale story of last season, he will have to improve again to win this. How much improvement he has left in him is debatable. The Aintree form isn't the strongest and his win at Cheltenham was probably in the weakest race at the Festival. You can't take those away from him, but I think he may be found wanting a bit here. Walkon fits all the trends. Rating band is roughly 140-147, he is rated 143. 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 7, Walkon is a 7 year old. Last 5 winners all carried less than 11 stone, Walkon carries 10-6. 4 of the last 5 winners were second season chasers, Walkon is a second season chaser. He is also best when mad fresh and this is his seasonal reappearance/ The stats don't lie and he should go close, the King stable has also been in good form recently which is a bonus. 8/1 is a bit skimpy for me bearing in mind he is up against two potential Gold Cup horses in the form of Grands Crus and Hunt Ball. He is probably a notch or two below them and I would be looking for 10/1 to be interested. Nadiya De La Vega is looking to follow up after her victory here last month and I think she has a squeak. Similar to Walkon, she fits most of the trends but she isn't the most trustworthy and has been inconsistent in the past. Putting two runs together hasn't been her forte so far in her career, consequently she's not for me. Al Ferof was a late entry into the race by the champion trainer, I don't think they quite know what to do with this grey. His optimum trip is unknown and I fear this race wasn't originally the plan which I don't like. I also think he isn't the best handicapped horse,  159 looks high enough and I think he will struggle off that mark. On the plus side, he likes Cheltenham and he appeared to want further than 2 miles last year. Backing Divers is a risk, he's very inconsistent. I don't think Michael Flips is quite good enough to win a race like this, his form suggests he is always in contention, but rarely winning the race. Consequently, I think he will get found out here. This race is not often won by a horse who has been on the go in the summer such as The Disengager. Quantitativeeasing and Poquelin have brilliant Cheltenham records and have been placed in this race in the past. They look high enough in the handicap but may run into a place. Triolo D'Alene was fancied for the race Hunt Ball won at the Festival but flopped, I didn't think he liked the hustle and bustle of a major handicap and that puts me off here.

My selections for the day:
12:45 - Vasco Du Ronceray
1:20 - Sire Collonges
1:55 - Bradley
2:35 - Grands Crus
3:05 - Knight Pass, Star Neuville (Undecided)
3:40 - Tanerko Emery (If It Runs)

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown