The King George Preview 2012

Kauto Star - Following the star
on boxing day is no longer the norm

The mid-season highlight of the National Hunt season is fast approaching and for the first time in 6 years, the legendary figure of Kauto Star, who won 5 of the last 6 renewals, will not be present due to retirement. Without the horse who has won more King George's than anyone else, the race has suddenly become a much more open affair, also the recent dominance of second season chasers adds even more spice to the mix. Overall, on paper, the 2012 King George VI chase has all the makings of a blockbuster.



Been there. Done it. Got the t-shirt.

Due to Kauto Star's recent dominance, only one previous winner lines up in the race, that horse is 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run. On route to that momentous triumph in March, a rearranged visit to Kempton in January for the King George was a significant stepping stone. Kauto Star's one and only defeat in the contest came at the hands of Long Run, although the recently retired gelding wasn't at his best that day, Long Run was a seriously impressive winner. At the tender age of 6, his smooth 12 length success earned him an official rating of 179 and also elevated him to the head of the Gold Cup market. On pure ratings, his performance in the Gold Cup was 3lbs better than Kempton at 182. The 3 mile staying division was his dominate for years to come. How things have gone in the opposite direction, he has never matched or eclipsed that 182 rating in his next 5 efforts. There have been excuses, a new course record at Newbury in the Denman Chase and a dethroning in the Gold Cup since. On the day he broke the course record Burton Port was close up but didn't frank the form in the Gold Cup or Bowl at Aintree afterwards, therefore I feel the solidity of the form is questionable. A defeat first time out this year to the improving Silviniaco Conti was probably a bit unlucky, the race wasn't run to suit and it cost him. How many more chances am I willing to give him? Plenty. How many more chances am I willing to give his jockey? Very few. I know this is a bit on a contentious issue, but I feel the reason he gets beat is Sam Waley-Cohen. He's a good jockey, but he's an amateur jockey, he can't claim his 5lb in Grade 1's which means Long Run has got to be at least 5lb better than his opponents (arguably more against the likes of Walsh, Geraghty and McCoy, who are another 5lb better than your average jockey). I don't think Long Run is 10lb better than anything they ride! Do I blame Long Runs owner Robert Waley-Cohen for wanting his son to ride the horse? Absolutely not, it's a family horse so why wouldn't his son ride it? My dad would do the same. The horse may have peaked early like so many French breds to scale the heights he did in 2011, but for the reasons explained above, I can't be having him.

Need to know if you stay 3 miles? All roads lead to Kempton.

In terms of impressive performances so far this season, don't look too far past Cue Card's demolition job in the Haldon Gold Cup. His 26 length win over 2 mile 2 furlongs at Exeter has earn't him quotes of biggest 9/2 for this and he is strongly fancied by his handler Colin Tizzard to run a huge race. This will be his first attempt at 3 miles and it appears he will relish the step up in trip. He has a high cruising speed but is also a strong galloper, racing prominently here using those qualities gives him strong claims. As we know top class horses over shorter distances have had success in the King George, therefore I don't think he will be far away. A worry is he goes best fresh, also he may not be as classy as other horses making the step-up in trip, we have the reigning Queen Mother and Ryanair winners in the race.

2nd in 2010 and winner of the Ryanair last year, Riverside Theatre has strong claims that can't be ignored. The Ryanair was an odd performance, although he won, he was never travelling and Barry Geraghty gave him a great ride. It looked like he could never quite go the pace, Geraghty was niggling along from a long way out, but he rallied gamely to stay on up the hill to nail Medermit close home. He may have bounced slightly after his comeback win at Ascot in February. The Ryanair win proved to me he stays 3 miles. A strongly run Ryanair round a stiff track like Cheltenham wouldn't be to dissimilar to 3 miles around Kempton. He was rode to stay 3 miles in 2010, I feel he is a better horse now who truly stay 3 miles and can be ridden to win the race. However, the added plus is that he has the pace to win over a shorter distance which is crucial around a speed track like Kempton. On that basis he sways into favour. He is a solid bet an goes well mad fresh, connections have waited to run here first time out. One worry is his jockey, Geraghty will have the choice of him and Finians Rainbow and if he deserts Riverside Theatre, a winning combination will be broken which is far from ideal.

Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have long been saying that Finians Rainbow would be better suited by trip. As a 2 mile novice chaser he was a bit of tearaway who pulled hard, consequently he had to be allowed to go from the front. Last year he matured and learnt to settle, this has made him more tactically versatile, his reward was a win in the Queen Mother last spring, before making the step-up in trip to win the Melling Chase at Aintree really impressively. That has merited him to step-up further to compete here. Connections are taking a step into the unknown regarding his stamina, he appeared to be better for further at Aintree and there is every possibility that may be the case here too. Put a line through his seasonal reappearance, jockey said he hated the heavy ground and nothing found to be a miss afterwards, it should have him spot on for this. In terms of classy animals Finians Rainbow ranks highly and will have the speed to compete around Kempton. Main worries include: whether he will stay, if the ground comes up heavy and which one of the Henderson horses Geraghty rides - he was key to the success Finains Rainbow and Riverside Theatre had last year.

Sizing Europe, in my mind, is undoubtedly the classiest horse in this race. If he comes across from the Ireland, he stands a fantastic chance. Surely if his owners want to stay 3 miles, and be successful over 3 miles, Kempton is ideal? 3 miles around a speed track would surely be perfect? Rather than 3 miles in testing ground in Ireland. It is looking increasingly likely he is going to stay in Ireland to run in the Paddy Power chase over Christmas, I find it disappointing. He is 10 going on 11 and probably won't get many more opportunities to have a crack at the King George. It is also a worry if the ground turns testing. You can back him 'with a run' with Paddy Power at 6/1 which isn't the worst bet, although it doesn't contain abundances of value.

Whose got a point to prove?

Grands Crus has been a huge disappointment on his last 2 outings, first in the RSA where his blood was apparently wrong and more recently, when pulled up in last months Paddy Power. The grey has undergone a breathing operation since which is threatening his participation here. I was at Cheltenham that day, after the race an announcement came over the tanoy after the Paddy Power that said David Pipe had been called to the stewards room to explain his grey's effort, Mr Pipe responded he couldn't provide an answer. If a breathing operation was needed, Tom Scudamore would have surely heard him make a noise, but it doesn't appear he did and therefore I believe it is a stab in the dark to get his career back on track. There is a possibility it could make all the difference and Grands Crus returns to the horse of old, recapturing the form that saw him win the Feltham in devastating style last year. If he does, he will be very competitive. However, the doubt over his participation and his recent lack of form is enough to make me look elsewhere.

The Kauto name will once again be represented when Kauto Star's half-brother, Kauto Stone, lines up for the deadly Paul Nicholls. The stable were dealt a very cruel blow when Paddy Power winner Al Ferof was rule out with a tendon injury on the 17th December, two days after Cristal Bonus fatally broke his pelvis at Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh now takes the ride on Kauto Stone, who must prove he can retain a strong level of form throughout the season. Last season started with a bang when winning the Ladbroke chase at Down Royal over 2 1/2 miles, before dropping back in trip to finish a respectable 2nd to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek the following month. Thereafter, his form completely tailed off, his next 3 outings saw form figures of 7F7. Paul Nicholls has stated he has got to grips with how to train him this year and feels he is a better horse for it. On the form of his winning return to Down Royal in the 3 mile JN Wine Champion Chase, it's feasible he's got to the bottom of him. If he can retain the level of form that saw him win at Down Royal last month, he's in with a chance if the ground is soft but others are preferred.

Captain Chris carries the tag 'the best horse Richard Johnson has ever ridden', which when you consider Johnson has ridden Looks Like Trouble to a Gold Cup success, Flagship Uberalles to a Queen Mother victory and won a Champion Hurdle on Rooster Booster, its a hefty accolade to carry. Since winning the Arkle in 2011, the wheels have come off slightly. He was unlucky at Exeter, but ran creditably to finish 3rd here last year and then again when 4th in the Ryanair. This season has started much better than last with a win at Ascot in the Amlin, beating runaway Old Roan winner For Non Stop and Finians Rainbow who re-opposes here. He needs to go right handed and will act on most ground, he has claims but others are preferred more. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if he was competitive but I'm not convinced the Hobbs horses are running to there best at the moment.

Any value at the prices?

Hunt Ball was much shorter than he currently is before his run in the Paddy Power. A flat track over 3 miles will suit and he showed he could compete in a similar contest when 3rd in the Bowl at Aintree, which wasn't bad considering he was thought to be over the top by his trainer Keiran Burke. It would be a fairytale if he won after his meteoric rise in the weights last year, I think it's unlikely he will win but I do think he has a chance of being placed, 33/1 is worth a little E/1 wager in my opinion. Soft ground would be a worry though.

Champion Court is in a similar boat to Hunt Ball. So often the bridesmaid of novice chases last year, that form isn't looking too bad now after the recent dominance of second season chasers this season. Martin Keighley was very pleased with his seasonal reappearance at Ascot which saw his first run on heavy ground, he would of won if Evan Williams hadn't performed a master stroke to to bring the extremely well handicapped Williams Wishes back off a 600 day break. His best form has come at Cheltenham where he can dominate from the front over 2 1/2 miles, whether he can transfer that form to a flat track, going a different way round and over an extra half mile is a worry. Like Hunt Ball, he is worth a little E/W wager at 33/1 bearing in mind how solid his form in novice chases was last year.

Advice
Riverside Theatre 3pt Win - @6/1 Ladbrokes
Sizing Europe 1pt Win - @6/1 'With a run' Paddy Power
Hunt Ball 0.5pt E/W - @33/1 Paddy Power (Ante-Post Bet)
Champion Court 0.5pt EW - @33/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

The Horse Racing Blog Ten Dark Horses To Follow For The National Hunt Season 2012/2013

1. Peddlers Cross

Some may ask how a Champion Hurdle runner-up is a dark horse? The answer is simple. 2012/2013 is a recovery mission for Peddlers Cross. He was last seen finishing well down the field in the 2m 5f Jewson Novice Chase when favourite at the Cheltenham Festival, after which his trainer Donald McCain immediately stated his stable star would revert back to hurdles in 2012/2013. That run at Cheltenham brought to an end what was ultimately an unsuccessful novice chasing campaign. His efforts over fences never replicated his brilliance over the smaller obstacles. It seemed the natural athleticism and spine-tingling speed at which he could get from one side of a hurdle to the other were not present when he jumped a fence. I would attribute this to being his main downfall and would help to explain why he never appeared to recapture the form he displayed over hurdles. It was undisputed that he was top class over hurdles and I think the gelding has sneaked under the radar a bit for this coming season. At 25-1 ante-post for the Champion Hurdle, I think he is real value assuming that all is well with his health. I say this as I think there may have been a bit of a problem with Peddlers Cross last year. Donald McCain constantly re-iterated that his horse was working as well as ever at home, but a decision on his Cheltenham Festival target was consistently delayed. Whether he was simply papering over the cracks, or connections were running scared of Sprinter Sacre, I don't know, I'm afraid. But I'm 99% certain there was more to it than met the eye. My gut feeling tells me that Peddlers Cross was not firing on all cylinders. Hopefully after a summer off and some time to recharge the batteries, this horse will justify my faith in him when putting up bold displays in the top class 2 mile
hurdles this year.

2. Champion Court

The horse I call the 'bridesmaid'. Always in the shake up, never runs a bad race,  but always finds one too good. He was 2nd on numerous occasions in novice chases last year, notably to Grands Crus at the Open Meeting in November and then more recently to Sir Des Champs at the Festival. Like so many front-running chasers he races with real zest and loves to attack his fences. It just depends on whether there is one good enough to get passed him. There are never two, but nearly always one ! In my opinion he is a 2 and a half miler. He gets every yard of the trip and making it a stamina test through his front-running style is the ideal way to ride him. Stepping him up to 3 miles means he is less effective when ridden from the front. Unfortunately, finishing runner up on so many occasions has come at a cost. Getting so close to the top class novices (but being so far ahead of the others !) has meant his handicap rating of 155 is very similar to those who have been his conquerors. Grands Crus is rated 157 and Silviniaco Conti, 156. Therefore if these horses run up to their ratings next year, the case of 'seconditus' he caught last year could be present again in 2012/2013. However, he may well still be on the upgrade and second season chasers have excellent records in the big handicaps, such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup. His trainer, Martin Keighley, has stated that his horse will probably start in a graduation chase as he thinks it may not be fair for his stable star to run consistently well in handicaps and ruin his handicap mark. In conclusion, I feel the coming year will be another difficult one for Champion Court unless he has considerably improved over the summer. I expect to see him living up to the name I have dubbed him once again this year. He is however a swinger certainty, so make sure he is on your slip, whoever else you may fancy!

3. Tistory

Carries the tag of being the most exciting novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard this year. He is owned by Judy Wilson whose blue and green silks are synonymous with crowd favourites such as French Opera and Greenhope. Coincidently Tistory is a half brother to Punchestowns, possibly the most talented horse to carry Judy Wilson's colours. The gelding has won three bumpers, two in France and one in England - a battling win by 3/4 length at Ludlow on March 1st. This win brought about plans for a trip over the Irish Sea to compete in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown. However, a ruling about the races Tistory had won in France prevented him from competing.  For those who care, the bumpers he won were non-thoroughbred, as such they are classified as flat races in Ireland whereas they are not in England. Basically, making things pointlessly complicated. Nonetheless, the bottomless underfoot conditions probably would have meant the horse would've been withdrawn anyway. Nicky Henderson was speaking at his owners open day on Sunday where he was happy to express his high hopes for the novice hurdler this year. His exact description was, 'Tistory is undoubtedly one of our big hopes for novice hurdle honours this year'. In simpler words. This horse is one to have on your betting slip.

4. Last Instalment

Which horse was the best staying novice chaser in Ireland last year? First Lieutenant , Last Instalment or Sir Des Champs? (wouldn't mind to be Michael O'Leary when you think of these 3 horses, however much I dislike flying with Ryanair!) Unfortunately, we were deprived of seeing the true outcome last year when Last Instalment was injured in action whilst winning the Dr P.J Moriarty novice chase at Leopardstown in February. The 7 year old is unbeaten over fences, defeating some high class horses in doing so. Most notably Cheltenham Festival runner-up First Lieutenant and 3rd place finisher Four Commanders. Up until now, he has readily swept aside his competitors in a rather nonchalant manner. He just carries on galloping until he grinds his rivals into the ground. Very similar to how Denman used to race. I'm not saying he has the quality of Denman, but his main attribute is to stay, not to do his competitors for toe! In other words he could be put into the bracket as 'an old fashioned, proper staying chaser'. His victory over First Lieutenant at Leopardstown at Christmas was very impressive. First Lieutenant couldn't live with the Phillip Fenton trained gelding that day. Last Instalment appeared to crack him by simply galloping him into the ground. However, I am aware that First Lieutenant runs his best race at Cheltenham in the spring on a stiff track when the ground is firmer. Bearing this in mind, I think its a fair argument that First Lieutenant's efforts in the winter are not a fair reflection of how good he is. However, at the end of the day, he was thumped by Last Instalment over Christmas and I don't think he ran that poorly that day. Last Instalment then proceeded to win the Dr P.J Moriarty at Leopardstown in his normal nonchalant manner, while injured I hasten to add. Also I think the fact he is a true 'staying chaser' is to his benefit. I can see him 'out-staying' horses in long distance races this year. If the Gold Cup is his main target, I think a stiff track such as Cheltenham and a true dog eat dog finish up the hill will play to his strengths.

5. Balder Succes

When stepped up in class to the top quality juvenile races last spring his form figures read: fell after a mile and unseated rider at the 1st. So we have no possible inclination of how good he may be. However if we take his 3 wins prior to Cheltenham and Punchestown, he could be anything. The gelding won in ultra-impressive style on all 3 occasions and was not asked a question in all 3 races. When he went to Cheltenham all the talk surrounding this horse was around whether he would he be able to act on a sounder surface as he had done in those 3 crushing wins when the ground had more give. His starting price of 15-2 tells you that nobody really knew and unfortunately we still don't! The TV screen didn't give you a very conclusive view of his fall in the Triumph at Cheltenham. I'm just wondering whether they were going half a stride to quick for him on the firmer ground? He didn't seem to be struggling before his fall, but you wonder as the fall came at the hurdle after the pace was injected into the race. The race at Punchestown was just one of those days. He was awkward at the first and left Choc Thornton with no chance but to exit via the side door. Oh well, as Grandma always says, there's always tomorrow! Your guess as to how good Balder Succes is are as good as mine. One thing I do think is that he will relish a step up in trip as 2 miles is on the sharp side for him. I think 2m 4f is his optimum distance and he will be stepped up to this trip after a warm up race, maybe in what was the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham at the Open Meeting.

6. New Years Eve

If you attended a 2012 Cheltenham Festival preview evening in Newmarket last year, you will be aware of the supreme confidence surrounding one horse - and it wasn't Frankel for once! It was about a horse from John Ferguson's yard who had won 2 egg and spoon bumper races around Ludlow and Market Rasen. Heading into the Champion Bumper, New Years Eve appeared to be the only horse that could win the race. He was backed into 9-2 favourite and the amount of confidence behind him was unbelievable! Unfortunately, the event turned into a bit of a damp squid when the gelding finished 2nd having failed to quicken past Champagne Fever up the hill. In hindsight, only one horse has headed Champagne Fever and New Years Eve probably came closest to repeating this in the most competitive bumper of the year. Ferguson then sent the horse to Punchestown for their Champion Bumper in April. The race was run in a bog and New Years Eve was effectively pulled up on the home bend and finished walking across the line. I think he simply hated the ground. The fact is that this horse is obviously extremely talented and could be a very exciting recruit to the novice hurdle ranks this year. I think he may prefer good ground, if this is the case it would possibly suggest he will run his best races in the spring when the ground dries out. Bearing this in mind he may be a Supreme Novice hurdle contender for the Festival 2013.

7. Montbazon

One of my favourite horses in training. I've always got the feeling that Alan King thinks this horse could be exceptionally good. He is one of three horses at his yard that are stepping up from the novice hurdle ranks this year that all look high class. Grumeti, Balder Succes and Montbazon, which one is the best? The answer is...pass. I have no idea. But I've always got the sense that this horse has a real soft spot in his trainers heart. He was near enough the best bumper horse around the year before last. That campaign culminated in a second place finish behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper. Although, I am never convinced how strong a form line this race is with previous winners such as Megastar, Sitting Tennant and Pangbourne not going on to be anything special. However, Montbazon did beat home that year high class novice hurdlers such as 2012 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob. He started last year in the bumper at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November, which I was there to see. He finished third but didn't look anywhere near properly tuned up and looked a bit fat in addition to Alan Kings horses running poorly for all 3 days of the meeting. His novice hurdle campaign began at Newbury with a difficult debut task against the classy Colour Squadron, going off at 5-1, he finished a creditable 2nd, beaten a length. He then won a confidence building exercise around Plumpton against a bunch of trees before heading back to Newbury to renew rivalries with Colour Squadron. In the meantime Colour Squadron would have probably won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown if he could run in a straight line! Montbazon won that day at Newbury putting in their place other promising hurdlers such as All The Aces and Vulcanite, although he was assisted by Colour Squadron's fall at the second last, I think that Montbazon just about had him held. The end of year assessment loomed at Cheltenham the following month. Starting at 15-2 in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he never quite jumped with the slickness and fluency required to stay in contention in the 2 mile helter skelter opener to the Festival. However, stay in contention he did! He was bang there at the last with eventual winner Cinders And Ashes whose mistake at the last, where he knocked the hurdle flat, probably put off Montbazon who put in an awkward leap at the hurdle. The gelding kept tabs with the top four and finished 1 3/4 lengths 4th. Not a bad effort! A real improvement on his other runs where horses he had beaten before such as Vulcanite and Colour Sqaudron were well over 10 lengths behind him. I don't know what Alan King has in plan for this horse this year. I would imagine the plan is to stick to hurdles for another season and we may see him entered in the top 2 mile hurdle races this year. I remember Alan King saying Montbazon was quite hard to train because he suffers with chronic sore shins. Bearing this in mind, I don't know how many times he will appear this season but I would advise you to look out for him when he does.

8. Tetlami

Probably Nicky Henderson's 2nd best 2 mile novice hurdler last year after Darlan - who was probably  just about the best of them all. After two pretty promising novice hurdle victories at Sandown and Kempton beating decent horses such as Vulcanite and Knight Pass, he won a 'jumpers bumper' at Kempton as his prep run for a crack at the Supreme Novice Hurdle. He was bang in contention at the third last and looked a likely winner before fading to finish 9th beaten 12 lengths. However, if you look at the scope of this chestnut you would say he is made for chasing. I don't know what the plan is for this horse but I hope he goes novice chasing this winter. This is because I would imagine he will be a better chaser than he was a hurdler. I also think he has the ability to be a really smart smart horse over 2 or 2 1/2 miles where he can use his natural speed and scope to take lengths out of his rivals through jumping with accuracy at real pace. Personally, I think he fits the mould of a smart novice chaser who could put in a bold display in the Grand Annual at The Festival. Previous winners such as Bellvano, Oh Crick and Pigeon Island were all novices.

9. Sonofvic

This is a contentious selection. He would have been in many peoples ten to follow at this time last year after a promising hurdler career was switched to novice chasing. He was supposed to excel last year over the bigger obstacles and was the source of much ante-post RSA betting interest. However, not all went to plan. A very good effort behind Grands Crus on his debut meant he was only beaten 2 lengths by the ante-post RSA favourite. It was his next run on New Years Day that baffled me. Constant re-iteration that he was really classy from his trainer Paul Nicholls and his promising debut run meant there was massive market confidence behind the horse as he was sent off 6-5 favourite. He was a staying on 5th when he slipped on landing taking the fence at the top of the hill and left Ruby Walsh with almost no chance. Somehow he managed to keep the partnership intact and finish the race aboard the 7 year old. Disregarding Ruby Walsh's brilliance in the saddle, he wasn't winning the race and it was ultimately a poor effort when everything looked so positive. After that his novice chase campaign was scrapped so he could mature a bit more mentally and physically. Remember this horse has only seen a racecourse 5 times so is still relatively inexperienced. He was kept off the track until the Cheltenham Festival came along in March where he was entered in the Pertempts Final 3 mile hurdle race. Although he fell at the last and the Racing Post description says 'weakening', he was only 7 lengths 5th at the time. For a horse who had never run in a hustly bustly handicap and was competing against very experienced handicappers, I thought it was a really good effort. With another summers maturing I think Sonofvic could prove to be the horse that everyone has been crowing about for the last 2 years. By fulfilling his potential I expect to see him putting in bold displays in staying novice chases this season. I think he is a horse that needs a stiff track and a stamina test to see him in his best light. Therefore, I would imagine he will be a regular visitor to tracks such as Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury.

10. Mount Benbulben

Gordon Elliot normally has one horse lined up for a victory at the Cheltenham Festival and he's normally pretty vocal in doing so! At the 2011 Festival he had two winners in the shape of Chicago Grey and Carlito Brigante. Both had been beautifully laid out for their races and both won with a bit in hand too. At the 2012 Festival he didn't have a winner.  I suppose you can never expect too much from the most competitive racing festival in the world ! However, the horse he was very vocal about this year was Mount Benbulben. Apparently the gelding had been working superbly on the gallops and had a brilliant chance in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Gold Cup Day. He was comprehensively beaten the best part of 20 lengths, finishing 7th. His form before that run had stacked up pretty well. In previous runs he had beaten subsequent Punchestown Champion Bumper winner Lovethehigherlaw around Limerick. Over hurdles he had beaten subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Rebel Fitz and he had also got the better of Jetson who went on to win the valuable Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. The only horse who had beaten him over hurdles last year was Boston Bob, the best novice hurdler to come out of Ireland last year. I think there were 3 or 4 competing to be the second best and this horse was right up there. I don't know quite what happened at Cheltenham. Perhaps he ran not 100% like many of Gordon Elliot's horses did that week or maybe his first effort on good ground and over 3 miles had caught him out. I think he may require a bit of cut in the ground, but if he does get it, I think this horse could be a serious threat in staying hurdles in Ireland this year.