Champion Hurdle 2013

Champion Hurdle 2013

Day ones feature contest has a much more open feel to it this year than it did last. It's very likely Hurricane Fly will start favourite again this year having had a much better preparation than last, Willie Mullins has had a clear run with the gelding, taking his grade 1 tally to 14 in the process. Worryingly for his rivals, the last time he had a preparation like this he was an awesome winner of the contest in 2011. The credentials he brings to the table are exceptional; he jumps athletically, has a high cruising speed and has the ability to quicken at blistering speed. If he puts it all together on the day he will be extremely difficult to beat. For all the superlatives, he has disappointed before, notably here when only 3rd behind Rock On Ruby twelve months ago. I still have doubts whether the stiff nature of Cheltenham sees him at his best, additionally the form of his 2011 win hasn't worked out well, so much so it could be classified as a poor renewal. I feel there are others in the line up who are more than capable of seizing on any mishap, no horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 has regained the Champion Hurdle, consequently 6/4 doesn't represent any value.

Zarkandar has been excellently campaigned by Paul Nicholls this season. Another who has had a much smoother preparation for the contest this year, Zarkandar has taken the: Elite, International and Kingwell hurdles in a manner of a horse who has matured, appearing to fulfil the potential he displayed when scoring in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. He was never considered to be right last year, to his credit he took the Betfair Hurdle and was a staying on 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He will get every yard of the 2 miles and has the ability to lay up with the pace so the likelihood of getting outpaced like last year is less of a worry. A negative is I don't see a front runner in the race, therefore not any obvious pace, although there will never be a slowly run Champion Hurdle, this will probably go against Zarkandar, he likes to race prominently but won't want to lead, he may just give the speed horses behind a tow into the race. Also I think the old course is less likely to suit than the new course, it is more of a speed test which again isn't ideal. I can't be having him at 9/2.

Last years champion Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong since his victory twelve months ago. Without the benefit of a run he ran well for a long period in the International on ground softer than ideal, he followed that up with a fortunate win at Doncaster last time out when the ill-fated Darlan was cantering all over him. There is a argument his Champion Hurdle win was slightly fortuitous last year, having raced prominently he was never reached by those behind, the jockeyship of the beaten horses has to come into question and on that basis he doesn't deserve to be 11/2 in my opinion. I also fear the gelding has had a very stop-start season. Harry Fry has been umming and erring when to run, consistently waiting for some good ground, having many declarations throughout the year without a clear plan isn't the best of preparations. Also the lack of obvious pace in the race will probably be against him, like Zarkandar he will want to prominent but not lead and set the pace, he may just set the race up, there are too many negatives.

GRANDOUET has been my ante-post fancy since the start of the season. He missed the Festival last year through injury but his one effort this term proved he has lost none of the old talent. He reappeared in the International Hurdle in December, like Rock On Ruby he didn't have the benefit of a run, but travelled and jumped well in the bad ground, he quickened after the last but wasn't able to out-battle the match fit Zarkandar. He is an out-and-out 2 miler with pace to burn and an electric turn of foot which could see him accelerate past those up with the pace off the home turn. The main negative is he has only appeared once this year, a minor setback forced him to miss his intended engagement in the Kingwell, consequently a lack of match practice is a worry. However, at 13/2 he appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and has a lot of untapped potential. He fits the mould of the speed horse I am siding with this year.

The mercurial Binocular is something of a forgotten horse. On his day he is brilliant, so much so he would be much shorter than the 9/1 he is currently trading at, it just depends what Binocular turns up. Put a line through his reappearance, historically he has needed the run first time out and the ground was against him, consequently he wasn't given a hard time by McCoy. The 2010 champions well-being can be measured by his hurdling, when on song he is electric and the latest update from Nicky Henderson was positive, where he said the gelding was hurdling as well as ever. He can be found at 11/1 in places which represents some value, it just depends if he feels like it, plus he faces the same terrible statistic as Hurricane Fly where only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown.

Cinders And Ashes has come in for considerable support since the long-term forecast has become more positive. Better ground is key to this horse, his form in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdles this year has been poor and doesn't justify the 12/1 he is currently trading at, but it has been on soft ground so it can effectively be excused, when he got his ground last year he won a shade cosily in the Supreme. Although it is likely he has improved for another years maturity, I think he will come up short in this grade, quite simply I don't think he will be good enough.

Another who requires an end to end gallop is Countrywide Flame. I don't agree with the theory that he needs soft ground on the back of his impressive victory in the Fighting Fifth, he just coped with it best on the day. If we're being honest he didn't beat much, Cinders And Ashes hates soft ground, Trifolium ran no sort of race and Bothy simply isn't good enough in the grade. His best two performances came last Spring at Cheltenham and Aintree, both of those were on good ground. However, I do agree with the theory Cheltenhams stiff nature and uphill finish will suit John Quinns charge. On all given form he has a bit to find, since 1939 only four horses have taken the Champion Hurdle after winning the Triumph, only 2 of those were in consecutive years. I think he's got enough on his plate to win the race and I would like to see him bigger than the current 16/1 he is trading to represent any each-way value, he may be bigger on the day.

Others of note are Cotton Mill, he would be of interest as an each-way shout at 25/1, his run in the Betfair Hurdle was solid and he is bound to get every yard of the 2 miles. A return to a sounder surface will suit but with no definite target confirmed you can't back him unless you have the benefit of non-runner no bet.  Steps To Freedom won at Dundalk in taking fashion recently, he has been off all winter due to the poor ground, good ground is a necessity but I doubt he is classy enough. He ran poorly in last years Supreme before disappointing at Fairyhouse, he has enough to prove in the grade. Khyber Kim ran ok on is reappearance in the Kingwell after a long lay off, it would be a shock if an 11 year old was at his peak and I doubt he is up to it nowadays. Raya Star has been a superstar this year for Alan King, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle was a cracking run, although I'm not sure it is a strong form line of you take Darlan out of the race. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame didn't run up to scratch, I would be surprised if 3rd placed Dodging Bullets was up to Champion Hurdle standard either. Additionally, his best form has come at Ascot, Cheltenham is the other way round and his effort in the County Hurdle last year was his worst of the season. I would be surprised if he's good enough.

In conclusion, although the race will not been run slowly, I have doubts whether it will be run at the usual breakneck speed with no obvious pace setter in the field. There will be horses who like to race prominently, most notably Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby, however my thoughts are that they will set the race up for those speed horse behind who will be able to pick them off after jumping the last. Of course there is a chance they won't be able to get past the leaders, repeating the scenes of Hardy Eustace's second Champion Hurdle in 2005. It is an intriguing contest which may turn into a tactical affair, which if it does, I would rather side with the speed horses with that killer turn of foot. Of those: Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular fit the mould with GRANDOUET taking preference at the prices.

Advice - Grandouet - 2pt Win @13/2 William Hill/Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

Cheltenham International Meeting - Saturday 15th December

Fridays action was a good one for me financially, but in terms of the blogs selections, things could have gone better. Hildisvini sadly lost his life after his fall at the 2nd last, he wouldn't have won but wasn't disgracing himself in defeat. It's a real shame as he was a horse on an upward curve going places, how far he would of gone we will never know. Falcarragh appeared to get stuck in the mud and Midnight Chase was a non-runner. The ground has deteriorated dramatically today and the heavy going makes tomorrow much more difficult, in particular as there is a few short priced favourites who look vulnerable.

Cheltenham 

12:45 - Ryman Stationary Novices Chase

Court In Motion will love the ground and doesn't appear to have lost any ability after injury,  but won't want to be too much shorter than 5/2 (if he turns up)

Our Father is sure to be a popular choice after his effortless win here last month, his jumping was accurate and precise, possibly a bit big, but he cruised though the soft ground to win by a comfortable 20 lengths. On that basis he has strong claims here. It's unlikely he will get stuck in the mud, he has a lot of scope and proved he handles the cut in the ground he will face tomorrow last time out. A worry is he has been seen best fresh in the past, on his 3 seasonal reappearances he has won all 3, but has failed to follow these up and has been a little disappointing thereafter. Also regular pilot Timmy Murphy is out injured, although Tom Scudamore is a more than able deputy, the winning partnership has been broken. Overall, there is enough to put me off, especially at 4/5, that's plenty short enough. If Lingfield (First Preference) is off, Court In Motion takes the vote as a strong travelling horse who goes in the heavy. His victory as a novice hurdler in testing conditions at Warwick was very impressive, finishing 2nd to Back In Focus, who is making a mockery of staying novice chases on testing ground in Ireland for Willie Mullins, on his next start as a novice hurdler was far from poor, what was most taking was the smooth headway and strong travelling qualities he showed on both appearances. He progressed to run third in the Albert Bartlett so course form is in the book before injury struck and he had a lay off. His two comeback starts over fences have been promising behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Dynaste and he receives weight from all his rivals here, he wouldn't want to get any shorter than 5/2 though. Emma Lavelle also saddles Highland Lodge, he flopped in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Warwick behind Cotton Mill last season but has made a smooth transition to fences this term. Harry Topper sprouted wings to over take him at Newbury last time out, however he did look held in second beforehand and his official rating of 139 leaves him with something to find with the former two. What A Warrior hasn't been disgraced in two novice chase defeats here this term, his jumping must improve but if he gets his act together he could run into 2nd at a big price. Best Served Cold has soft ground form in the book in Ireland, but doesn't appeal here as Simply Ben has a lot to find on official ratings.

Advice - (Depending on whether Court In Motion is a non-runner)
CIM Runs - 3pt win @11/4 Bet365 
CIM Non-Runner - 2pt Straight Forecast - Our Father to beat What A Warrior

1:20 - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase

Pepite Rose will prefer betting going but is a model of consistency and may run into a place

Shooters Wood looks to build upon his win in the November running of this race here last month, he has been raised 8lb for that win to 132 which could be workable and gets in here off 10 stone. Ruby Walsh is doing his minimum weight and having him aboard is a huge plus as the winning partnership is retained, but he is one I'm going to side against here. His has never raced on anything worse than soft, considering he has been on the go throughout the summer, he would probably prefer better ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Also he showed plenty of speed last time out but that weapon may be blunted tomorrow on softer ground and on the new course, which tests stamina further than the old, may further mitigate his high speed. Oiseau Du Nuit is a very admirable horse and owes me nothing, but his current mark of 158 is career high and conceding a stone all round is going to be hard in this ground, easily opposed. Pepite Rose was a massive improver last year, her two starts this year have been a little disappointing, particularly last time out on heavy ground at Ascot. I think she will be better seen on better ground and tomorrow probably isn't her day, but she is likely to run into a place. Her mark of 144 is high enough, but she is only a 5 year old and hopefully still has improvement in her. Oh Crick ran a cracker behind Ulck Du Lin at Newbury after running creditably here in November, although Joshua Newman takes off a valuable 7lb, he still looks in the hands of the handicapper. Imperial Shabra has a 6lb higher rating in the UK than he does in Ireland and has a lot on his plate here, whilst West With The Wind has been hopelessly out of form recently. That leaves David Pipe's two runners. His Excellency won here in October and his still a novice, he was well behind in the Tingle Creek last week and looks held off 147. Potentially the stables first string is a newcomer from France who makes his British debut here. Garynella has form on the soft in France and has form over further than 2 miles, this race will take some getting in the ground and proving he gets further than 2 miles sways him into favour. He is officially 2lb out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me to much and he gets in off a featherweight. It hasn't gone unnoticed as he's 7/2 joint-favourite generally, which is possibly a tad short so at the prices I will be having Pepite Rose E/W.

Advice - Pepite Rose - 1.5pt EW @17/2 Bet365
Garrynella - 3pt Win @4/1 Paddy Power

2:30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

Notus De La Tour should handle the ground and has a big race win in him somewhere

Walkon is fancied to go one better than his 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He is best fresh and has struggled to build upon his efforts first time out in the past, consequently I can't be having him and 4/1 doesn't represent any value anyway. Unioniste comes into the race very unexposed having won a novice chase at Aintree, before being out classed here last month behind Dynaste. He is on a potentially attractive handicap mark on his handicap debut and should handle the ground having won on heavy in France. His age worries me as a 4 year old may find the hustle and bustle of a competitive handicap unnerving. Also the jockey booking of Harry Derham, whose claim of 5lb is very useful, is a bit of a worry as I would prefer a jockey with more experience in a race such as this. Ruby Walsh partners Cristal Bonus whose winning seasonal reappearance at Down Royal was impressive and he loves the soft. As a novice chaser last year he ranked highly, running very well to finish 2nd to Menorah at Aintree after not being right at the festival, he is very highly rated at home. 157 is high mark to be winning this though, however siding against second season chasers this year hasn't been advisable. Has strong claims. Notus De La Tour takes my vote as a progressive horse who has been on my radar for some time. I have no qualms about him going in the ground as he is a French bred, who also ran creditably in Ireland last term in testing conditions. There is hopefully improvement to come and I would hope he is a bit better than his current mark of 144. 7/1 is probably a bit short on reflection of his chance though, I am on ante-post at 10/1. Nadiya De La Vega won here in October and was raised to 145, she ran to that mark in the Paddy Power too but probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race. Quantitativeeasing has a win and two 2nds to his name at the track but still looks held in the handicappers hands, much like Astracad and Renard, although the former stepping up in trip could bring out some improvement. I think Tatenen is best going right handed and doesn't have a great Cheltenham record, whilst Wishfull Thinking has been a ridiculously annoying horse to follow, carrying top weight will be tricky and I'm not convinced how well the Hobbs horses are running at the moment. Michael Flips has been a little disappointing so far this season, he hasn't recaptured the form that saw him run 4th in last years Jewson. Tartak is gradually slipping down the handicap the whole time and his day will come, whether it is here I don't know, but he may be worth a little wager each-way at 20/1.

Advice - Notus De La Tour - 10/1 Ante-Post. 
Tartak - 0.5pt EW - @22/1 Coral

3:05 - Stan James International Hurdle

Grandouet (Centre) - If he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he should go close

This is a match of up between 3 horses and choosing the winner has become increasingly difficult with the ground turning testing. Reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby has been slightly overlooked for this as his victory in March has been rendered a bit of a fluke. I personally think that the win was much better than people are giving it credit. Noel Fehily knew his horse stayed 2 and a half miles so was prominent and kicked for home coming off the home bend, but he wasn't being caught on the line, I wouldn't say he 'slipped the field' either. It could be argued it was poor jockeyship from those behind, I think there is an element of that certainly, but that isn't solely responsible. I will stick my neck on the line and say Rock On Ruby was a decent winner of the Champion Hurdle. He won by 4 lengths, that margin wasn't diminishing close home. The fact the rest of the field didn't get to fellow front runner Overturn either is the counter-argument, they were 2 lengths off him, but 6 lengths off Rock On Ruby! On that basis I can't see how he isn't favourite for this. We know he stays 2 and a half and that will be to his advantage tomorrow on ground that will make it more of a stamina test. He is currently 2/1, there is a bit of value in that price. Zarkandar is far too short for me at 5/4. Admittedly he wasn't right last year and still ran a staying on fifth in the Champion Hurdle after winning the Betfair, before falling at Aintree. His reappearance win at Wincanton was very taking considering he was giving away 17lb to the second, he also showed excellent battling qualities. The run he has under his belt will assist and he will be 100% fit for this, which is a bonus on the testing ground. The 4lb he receives off the other big players in the market will assist and the bigger emphasis on 'stamina' the new course requires will be right up his street, I still think he is best over 2 and a half. However, at the prices he's best left alone. One of the forgotten horses this year is Grandouet. Before injury struck he was my fancy for this Champion Hurdle having one this race last year, in the process getting rid of any doubts he wouldn't get up the Prestbury Park hill. A long absence of just over a year isn't ideal and the energy sapping ground will bring any lack of fitness to the fore, however Nicky Henderson is the master at bringing horses back from a break to win first time out. Hopefully he retains all old ability and if he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he will be hard to beat. At the prices, 5/2 is the best value in the race to me.

Advice - Grandouet - 3pt Win @5/2 Paddy Power

Other horses of interest tomorrow:
Aerial
Vasco Du Ronceray
Ikorodu Road E/W
Easter Meteor

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

The Horse Racing Blog Ten REALLY Dark Horses To Follow National Hunt Season 2012/2013

In this post I will look to inform you about horses I feel have properly gone under the radar for the coming season. I think they could cause a splash at some point this winter and I hope they can all win us a few quid!

1. Broadbackbob

Highly talented novice hurdler last year who was thought of as a serious 2 mile 5 furlong Neptune Novice Hurdle contender. Bought from a small Irish trainer at the beginning of last year after a 6th place finish in the Aintree Champion Bumper the previous Spring, Broadbackbob started life in England with two very easy victories. His first was at Ascot in November over 2 miles where he stayed on better than subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes to beat him by a comfortable length. Highly rated Paul Nicholls novice hurdler Ted Spread was back in 4th. His second came at Newbury in December. He sauntered home to destroy the opposition by 11 lengths over 2 miles 3 furlongs defeating promising hurdlers Polisky and Carrigmorna King. Carrigmorna King was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund novice hurdle final at Sandown the last Saturday before the Festival later in the season. His next target was the Neptune Novices Hurdle Trial on Festival Trials day at Cheltenham in January. Going off a short priced favourite at 13-8 he was unlucky to finish second. Having travelled into the race like the winner he jumped the last in front and stumbled badly on landing losing momentum. Batonnier was able to pick up the pieces and charge up the finishing hill to best effect to defeat Broadbackbob by 3 lengths. It was later revealed that Broadbackbob had chipped a hock while racing at Cheltenham and that would go some way to explaining why he hung left the whole way up the run-in that day. Finishing a 3 length second was a pretty good effort with all things considered. Unfortunately, the injury meant he was out for the season. If he had made his target at the Festival I'm convinced he wouldn't have sniffed Simonsig, but think he would have probably been placed. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter. I think he is a welcome recruit to the novice chase ranks and he could feature in many of the main races this season. He is my idea of the the 2 mile 5 furlong Jewson Novice Chase winner currently, but I would expect that 2 1/2 miles is about as far he would want to go. He has shown he has plenty of speed to win races over 2 miles so dropping back to the shortest trip is also an option. However, Nicky Henderson is potentially double handed in those ranks with Simonsig and Tetlami maybe going novice chasing too this year. I would like to think he is more than good enough to mix it with the very best novice chasers this season without maybe being quite good enough to take on the Simonsigs of this world.

2. Hollow Tree

Brave, tough, game, never give up-er. All words to describe a horse that could take up the mantle of being the new 'Lough Derg'. Hollow Tree was a new recruit off the flat to Donald McCain last year and proved not to be the most talented of last years juveniles, but Jesus he was genuine in defeat. Whatever was asked of him he duly did his best and you couldn't help but admire the horse! He was progressive last year. After running a solid enough race in defeat behind Hinterland at the Open Meeting in November, he went and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Chepstow. Behind him in 2nd that day was subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame. His next task was a bit more difficult when competing in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Festival Trials Day. In hindsight, the race had massive strength in depth with classy animals such as Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix all entered. Once again Hollow Tree ran a really solid race to finish third beaten 3 1/2 lengths. In the actual event two months later Hollow Tree briefly lead as they turned for home after squeezing up the inside of Sadlers Risk. As was the case all year the better horses had another gear and accelerated past him but he plugged on for 7th beaten a total of 10 lengths. I would imagine handicapping will be his game next year. He currently has a rating of 142. I wouldn't be surprised if he is running off a winnable mark. Sadlers Risk who beat him 3/4 length at Cheltenham is rated 148. I don't think he is 6 pounds better than Hollow Tree, he wasn't even a length better than him in the Triumph Hurdle.

3. Teelin Star

I don't know much about this horse. However, I do know he was seriously hot property in the Irish point to point ranks. In the Champion Point to Point Bumper at the Fairyhouse Festival, where previous winners include Simonsig and Last Instalment, he was sent off a red hot favourite at odds of 8-11. The market confidence came after two victories earlier in the season which he had won by a distance and they sounded very very impressive. He was all the rage going into the race at Fairyhouse but wasn't in the shake up. After the amount of market confidence, he flopped horrendously and was beaten 20 lengths into 8th. He got his career back on track with a win at the Listowel Festival the other day. He made all and was never challenged. He wasn't a runaway winner, but he was a very easy 3 length winner from Sam Da Vinci. This horse is a real unknown quantity this year. What he's capable of I don't know. He seems to be a 2 1/2 mile horse but I wouldn't be surprised if he is stepped up to 3 miles, he obviously has winning form in point to points over 3 miles. He has been ridden from the front in his two starts under rules proper and this tells me he stays well. Whether he will stick to bumpers or go novice hurdling is another question I don't know the answer too. The verdict: Keep an eye out. Those guys in the point to point fields are no mugs and know what they're talking about!

4. Baile Anrai

Baile Anrai was a progressive novice chaser last season who I think may have a big handicap win in him at some point this season . Last year he started off as a novice hurdler, his first outing of the season finishing a 'best of the rest' 2nd behind Fingal Bay in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow in October. A decision to head novice chasing was probably made before the season started, his run at Chepstow was designed to blow the cobwebs away and get him race fit for the season. His debut over fences was in the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices Chase at Wincanton. It was a really tough ask and he was about 20 lengths off the pace when he fell at the 4th last, the winner Silviniaco Conti progressed to be a really smart staying novice chaser later in the year. His second and third attempts over fences where much easier tasks and produced two pretty comprehensive victories around Towcester and Leicester. winning by a combined total of 20 lengths. He was then stepped up in class again to renew rivalries with Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown Novice Chase over 3 miles at Ascot. The race was won by Invictus with RSA winner Bob's Worth back in 2nd, Silviniaco Conti was further down the field in 4th. However although Baile Anrai fell at the 4th last, he was right on the coat tails of the main pack, was going well enough and I don't think he would have been out of the picture if he had stood up. In his next run at the Festival in the JLT Speciality 3m handicap chase he ran no sort of race and was a distant 11th beaten 38 lengths. I think the big crowds and the whole occasion in general got to him as he seemed quite buzzy beforehand and he was probably beaten before he set off. Put a line through that run. He finished the season with a very convincing win in a Market Rasen novice chase by 24 lengths, though it wasn't much of a contest. I would imagine he will go handicapping this season. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think he is well in off that mark. At the age of 8 going on 9 I think he has an advantage over other second season chasers as he is probably more mature and this may help him in the hustly bustly handicaps this winter.

5. Wingtips

In the 2012 Triumph hurdle everybody saw the main protagonists at the head of affairs. Countrywide Flame, Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Hisabaat. But who can name me the horse that finished 5th off the top of their head? The answer is Wingtips. He was an Irish raider trained by Tony Martin at a price of 100-1. While the horses we have all taken notice of headed to Aintree and Punchestown to frank the form. The Punchestown renewal had a certain Wingtips finishing 3rd at 10-1, again running about up to form. Wingtips didn't win a race last year and can still claim his novice status. With another years maturity both physically and mentally Wingtips could be in a position of strength when taking on younger horses with a years experience in the locker. I dont know what Tony Martin has planned for his horse this year. He has a rating of 138, which will mean he will carry weights towards the top end of the handicaps. Hisabaat is a horse that has beaten him twice and is only rated 5 pounds higher at 143, therefore I don't consider him to be well handicapped.This tells me that another year novice hurdling could be on the cards. However, we have seen Tony Martin line up a big handicap win before, with the likes of Dun Doire and Xenophon at the Cheltenham Festival for example. If anyone knows how to find a handicap snip, Tony Martin is at the top of the list. But is Wingtips too highly rated? He may have to lose before he can win next year.

6. Rigidity

Rigidity - Pictured Centre

I think this horse is underrated. He ran some very good races in the most competitive 2 mile handicap hurdles of the year last season. He was second to Raya Star in the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot, jumping the last near enough in front, Raya Star beat him only half a length. He was then 8th in the Betfair Hurdle behind Zarkandar at Newbury in February. He was bang there at the third last and was just starting to fade at the second last when Darlan's crashing fall severely hampered him and ended all chances of victory. I think he did well to plug on and finish 8th in the end. A stinker in the Martin Pipe at the Festival followed, I don't know why, but he was so bad it was untrue. Something can't have been right. Anyway, I don't think this horse is good enough to be winning Betfair Hurdles and so on, but I do think he may be good enough to win a competitive handicap somewhere else in the season over 2 miles or maybe 2 1/2 miles. His last run at Cheltenham was over 2 1/2 miles and I think this may be his ideal trip as he has been slightly outpaced when the race has hotted up in the 2 mile handicap hurdles. He currently has a rating of 133 and I think off that mark, bearing in mind he still only 5, there is still improvement to come.

7. Grandouet

Just before I start, I have to admit it pains me to reveal my opinion on Grandouet. This is due to my judgement agreeing with one of my racing comrades. I think this is the first time we have seen eye to eye on anything to do with horses, basically because he is a blind follower of the Nicky Henderson yard (although having seen him play cricket, you would understand why he would need to do it blindly!) I also resent the success he had at the Festival last year, but wasn't surprised he wasn't able to tip a winner that wasn't trained by his 'man crush' Mr Henderson. I believe Grandouet to be the forgotten horse of the upcoming national hunt season. He was extremely unlucky to fall at the second last at Wincanton when running all over Celestial Halo in early November last year. Reappearing in an intermediate hurdle at Haydock two weeks later he won doing handstands, pulling effortlessly clear of Marsh Warbler and Rigidity to win by 8 lengths. He was then stepped up in class to compete in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December, a well known Champion Hurdle trial. There was a question mark over the geldings ability to get up the stiff finishing hill at Cheltenham after he appeared to fade away in the Triumph Hurdle the previous March. That was positively swept away with a crushing win when he powered away up the hill to get the better of subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Overturn by 4 lengths. The Champion Hurdle proved that fom to be pretty strong. However, I find it debatable how strong it is when you look at the bigger picture. Was this years Champion Hurdle result a true piece of form? It could be argued that it is, but I don't think Rock On Ruby is 5 1/2 lengths better than Hurricane Fly - so I feel the form is quite muddling. Nonetheless, regardless of how good Overturn is, Grandouet could only beat what was put in front of him. The injury he picked up last year to prevent him competing in the Champion Hurdle was obviously very serious. Nicky Henderson was quoted as saying at his owners open day that: 'there had been some scary moments'. Thankfully, it appears he has made a full recovery and if he recaptures the form he was in last year, I see no reason why he can't be a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle crown in 2013.

8. Comeonginger

If Tistory is the highest rated novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard for this upcoming season, Comeonginger fills that position at Paul Nicholl's stables. Owned by Paul Barber, he has won two point to points, never coming off the bridle in the second, his jockey described his win as 'an exercise gallop'. He is a full brother to ill-fated Cheltenham Festival winner Brindisi Breeze. That's about as much as I can tell you to be honest! He's certainly an exciting novice hurdler for the 2012/2013 season.

9. Oscara Dara

Oscara Dara is one of the horses who changed stables after Alan Fleming migrated to Ireland. He was moved to Nicky Henderson's yard and caused a bit of a splash. His last run for Fleming was a second place finish in a relatively hot bumper behind his current stable mate Mono Man. Following a set-back, his debut for Henderson was delayed for just over a year, reappearing at Sandown on the best day of the year (9th March is my birthday) he won very impressively by 20 lengths. For his next task he was stepped up in trip to tackle the best novice hurdlers around last year at the Aintree Festival, where he finished 4th behind stable mates Darlan and Captain Conan. Still relatively fresh he was sent straight to Punchestown for a 2 mile novice hurdle. Sent off a short priced 11-8 favourite he stayed on well to assert on the run-in to score by 3 1/2 lengths. Henderson said on his owners open day that the horse had matured well over the summer, he predicted that he would be much improved this year. The plan is to go novice chasing this winter, behind the stables most promising novices Simonsig and Captain Conan, he probably plays third fiddle. He has plenty of pace but I think a step up in trip will benefit him, he should be a smashing 2 1/2 miler. Nicky Henderson was very positive at his open day: 'If everything goes to plan, he's a very serious prospect'.

10. Samain

Another horse I can't tell you much about I'm afraid! He's won 3 bumpers in Ireland since he joined Willie Mullins after being purchased by Gigginstown Stud. He was a hot prospect for the Champion Bumper the year before last before he picked up an injury. The injury kept him off the track throughout last year but he's expected to return this winter. He's now 6 going on 7 so he will be one of the older horses going novice hurdling this year. A wiser head and advanced physical maturity should help him when competing against his less experienced rivals. He looks like a chaser in the making but whether he will head straight novice chasing this year and skip novice hurdling I don't know. In his bumpers the gelding out-stayed his rivals. He never accelerated away from them to be visually impressive, but was always in total command at the winning post. I just hope his injury wasn't so severe that he will never be able to fulfil his potential.