Champion Hurdle 2013

Champion Hurdle 2013

Day ones feature contest has a much more open feel to it this year than it did last. It's very likely Hurricane Fly will start favourite again this year having had a much better preparation than last, Willie Mullins has had a clear run with the gelding, taking his grade 1 tally to 14 in the process. Worryingly for his rivals, the last time he had a preparation like this he was an awesome winner of the contest in 2011. The credentials he brings to the table are exceptional; he jumps athletically, has a high cruising speed and has the ability to quicken at blistering speed. If he puts it all together on the day he will be extremely difficult to beat. For all the superlatives, he has disappointed before, notably here when only 3rd behind Rock On Ruby twelve months ago. I still have doubts whether the stiff nature of Cheltenham sees him at his best, additionally the form of his 2011 win hasn't worked out well, so much so it could be classified as a poor renewal. I feel there are others in the line up who are more than capable of seizing on any mishap, no horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 has regained the Champion Hurdle, consequently 6/4 doesn't represent any value.

Zarkandar has been excellently campaigned by Paul Nicholls this season. Another who has had a much smoother preparation for the contest this year, Zarkandar has taken the: Elite, International and Kingwell hurdles in a manner of a horse who has matured, appearing to fulfil the potential he displayed when scoring in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. He was never considered to be right last year, to his credit he took the Betfair Hurdle and was a staying on 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He will get every yard of the 2 miles and has the ability to lay up with the pace so the likelihood of getting outpaced like last year is less of a worry. A negative is I don't see a front runner in the race, therefore not any obvious pace, although there will never be a slowly run Champion Hurdle, this will probably go against Zarkandar, he likes to race prominently but won't want to lead, he may just give the speed horses behind a tow into the race. Also I think the old course is less likely to suit than the new course, it is more of a speed test which again isn't ideal. I can't be having him at 9/2.

Last years champion Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong since his victory twelve months ago. Without the benefit of a run he ran well for a long period in the International on ground softer than ideal, he followed that up with a fortunate win at Doncaster last time out when the ill-fated Darlan was cantering all over him. There is a argument his Champion Hurdle win was slightly fortuitous last year, having raced prominently he was never reached by those behind, the jockeyship of the beaten horses has to come into question and on that basis he doesn't deserve to be 11/2 in my opinion. I also fear the gelding has had a very stop-start season. Harry Fry has been umming and erring when to run, consistently waiting for some good ground, having many declarations throughout the year without a clear plan isn't the best of preparations. Also the lack of obvious pace in the race will probably be against him, like Zarkandar he will want to prominent but not lead and set the pace, he may just set the race up, there are too many negatives.

GRANDOUET has been my ante-post fancy since the start of the season. He missed the Festival last year through injury but his one effort this term proved he has lost none of the old talent. He reappeared in the International Hurdle in December, like Rock On Ruby he didn't have the benefit of a run, but travelled and jumped well in the bad ground, he quickened after the last but wasn't able to out-battle the match fit Zarkandar. He is an out-and-out 2 miler with pace to burn and an electric turn of foot which could see him accelerate past those up with the pace off the home turn. The main negative is he has only appeared once this year, a minor setback forced him to miss his intended engagement in the Kingwell, consequently a lack of match practice is a worry. However, at 13/2 he appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and has a lot of untapped potential. He fits the mould of the speed horse I am siding with this year.

The mercurial Binocular is something of a forgotten horse. On his day he is brilliant, so much so he would be much shorter than the 9/1 he is currently trading at, it just depends what Binocular turns up. Put a line through his reappearance, historically he has needed the run first time out and the ground was against him, consequently he wasn't given a hard time by McCoy. The 2010 champions well-being can be measured by his hurdling, when on song he is electric and the latest update from Nicky Henderson was positive, where he said the gelding was hurdling as well as ever. He can be found at 11/1 in places which represents some value, it just depends if he feels like it, plus he faces the same terrible statistic as Hurricane Fly where only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown.

Cinders And Ashes has come in for considerable support since the long-term forecast has become more positive. Better ground is key to this horse, his form in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdles this year has been poor and doesn't justify the 12/1 he is currently trading at, but it has been on soft ground so it can effectively be excused, when he got his ground last year he won a shade cosily in the Supreme. Although it is likely he has improved for another years maturity, I think he will come up short in this grade, quite simply I don't think he will be good enough.

Another who requires an end to end gallop is Countrywide Flame. I don't agree with the theory that he needs soft ground on the back of his impressive victory in the Fighting Fifth, he just coped with it best on the day. If we're being honest he didn't beat much, Cinders And Ashes hates soft ground, Trifolium ran no sort of race and Bothy simply isn't good enough in the grade. His best two performances came last Spring at Cheltenham and Aintree, both of those were on good ground. However, I do agree with the theory Cheltenhams stiff nature and uphill finish will suit John Quinns charge. On all given form he has a bit to find, since 1939 only four horses have taken the Champion Hurdle after winning the Triumph, only 2 of those were in consecutive years. I think he's got enough on his plate to win the race and I would like to see him bigger than the current 16/1 he is trading to represent any each-way value, he may be bigger on the day.

Others of note are Cotton Mill, he would be of interest as an each-way shout at 25/1, his run in the Betfair Hurdle was solid and he is bound to get every yard of the 2 miles. A return to a sounder surface will suit but with no definite target confirmed you can't back him unless you have the benefit of non-runner no bet.  Steps To Freedom won at Dundalk in taking fashion recently, he has been off all winter due to the poor ground, good ground is a necessity but I doubt he is classy enough. He ran poorly in last years Supreme before disappointing at Fairyhouse, he has enough to prove in the grade. Khyber Kim ran ok on is reappearance in the Kingwell after a long lay off, it would be a shock if an 11 year old was at his peak and I doubt he is up to it nowadays. Raya Star has been a superstar this year for Alan King, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle was a cracking run, although I'm not sure it is a strong form line of you take Darlan out of the race. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame didn't run up to scratch, I would be surprised if 3rd placed Dodging Bullets was up to Champion Hurdle standard either. Additionally, his best form has come at Ascot, Cheltenham is the other way round and his effort in the County Hurdle last year was his worst of the season. I would be surprised if he's good enough.

In conclusion, although the race will not been run slowly, I have doubts whether it will be run at the usual breakneck speed with no obvious pace setter in the field. There will be horses who like to race prominently, most notably Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby, however my thoughts are that they will set the race up for those speed horse behind who will be able to pick them off after jumping the last. Of course there is a chance they won't be able to get past the leaders, repeating the scenes of Hardy Eustace's second Champion Hurdle in 2005. It is an intriguing contest which may turn into a tactical affair, which if it does, I would rather side with the speed horses with that killer turn of foot. Of those: Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular fit the mould with GRANDOUET taking preference at the prices.

Advice - Grandouet - 2pt Win @13/2 William Hill/Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

THE REVIEW 13/10/2012 - Super Saturday Selections

On a day where my 7 selections yielded 4 winners, 1 second and 2 unplaced, you would of thought I may have more money in my pocket now than I did at this time yesterday? Your'e incorrect. I hope you readers wallets are fatter than mine right now!

Reckless Abandon - Win 9/4
Clive Cox's colt was extremely brave in victory to claim the Middle Park Stakes. I was a bit worried when he was extremely keen when going down to post, but he is a quirky individual and this sort of behaviour doesn't seem to hinder him. Top jockey Gerald Mosse gave him a great ride, his shrewd tactical move to break quickly and get over to the rail from his wide draw effectively won him the race. I'm so happy Reckless Abandon's normal jockey Adam Kirby decided to jump off him and hop onto second placed finisher Moohaajm, would rather have Mosse on board any day of the week - he's class! Talk about a tilt at the 2000 Guineas next spring is absurd in my opinion. He has bags of speed, so why blunt that weapon by stepping him up in distance? He is a sprinter, no arguments. Last words on the race, unlucky Adam Kirby!!!

Dawn Approach

Dawn Approach - Win 2/5
Easiest race to watch all day. Never had any worries from start to finish. He's not the most flashy, but he's impressive in his own way. He was 6-1 ante-post with Paddy Power for the 2000 Guineas next year before the race, to my amazement he is now 7-2! I don't think that's a great ante-post bet. There are other 2 year olds who have also caught my eye this year, it looks a talented crop and there is plenty of maturing to be done between now and next May. I'm very sweet on last weeks Longchamp victor Olympic Glory. He appears to be the best of Richard Hannon's many talented 2 year olds and represents much better value at 16/1 than Dawn Approach at 7-2. However, I think Dawn Approach is a very serious prospect for next season and could well justify his 7-2 price next May. The fact he is never visually impressive is probably influencing my argument but I see no reason why he couldn't emulate his Dad (New Approach) by becoming the top 3 year old colt next year.

Countrywide Flame

Countrywide Flame - Second 7/1
I am still annoyed by this race. I think he was a tad unlucky in defeat but I cannot fault the horse, he was very brave in defeat. He was given a super ride by Jimmy Quinn who at 2 furlong pole had given the gelding every chance of victory. He just couldn't get passed Kieren Fallon and Aaim To Prosper who you have to give credit to, the first horse to win the Cesarewitch twice is some feat! I think Countrywide Flame was hindered by the winner hanging into him in the last 2 furlongs, it was a major factor in explaining why he couldn't get passed him. When the front one straightened up my lad was running on again to only be beaten 1/2 length. If he had a fair run at it the placing would have surely been reversed. In fairness to Fallon he had his whip in the correct hand so you can't fault his jockeyship, it's just very frustrating. I'm going to stop talking about this now as I can feel the steam starting to gather in my ears.

Fingal Bay - Win 4/6
I said he was value at even money and I still think he was value at 4/6. He jumped impeccably and won a very cosy length. Although the race wasn't much of a contest after Poungach fell at the first, Richard Johnson seemed comfortable the whole way round and was more than happy to lob along in front. He idled in front and the threat from Tiger O'Toole was never a serious one, but don't underestimate the runner-up, he was rated 137 over hurdles. All in all, a good start and a nice way to blow away the cob webs. His next target will be a novice chase at Wincanton or at the Open Meeting next month.

Hinterland

Hinterland - Win 11/8
The easiest winner of the day! He was very impressive and one of the smoothest successes you will see all year. Those of you who read my blog about Hinterland  ( My Hinterland Blog can be found at : http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/a-season-of-promise-for-hinterland.html.) will know I thought this horse was a fantastic jumper and he proved me right today, he was as slick as you like. He will make a cracking novice chaser later in the year. I also tipped Red Riverman from the Twiston Davies yard each way at 33/1, he ran on to finish second but he wasn't carrying my money - bollocks I got a 100% return on the Hinterland win but could have had over 700% return on Twisty`s gelding ! I will gain some compensation if he was carrying yours though! Feel free to contact me through twitter if this is the case, I'm sure you'll love basking in my failures :)!

Ulis De Vassey - Unplaced 11/2
I was quids in if this horse had come home in front, unfortunately it was not to be. I didn't know much about the horse and took the punt because he was at the bottom of the handicap and unexposed. I suggested in my blog that previous winners in the race were very lightly weighted, I obviously picked the wrong one. The winner, Kitegen, carried 10-8. Oh well. When you back an unexposed horse they either normally make the shake up or are tailed off like Ulis De Vassy was here. That's the punt you take, we move on!

Golden Chieftain - 10/1 Unplaced
I really really fancied this horse! Everything about it smelt right, having backed the horse on Friday afternoon at 10/1, when I looked at the prices this morning to see the Tizzard horse at 4/1 I thought I was onto something. It was an odd race. He hit a fence badly halfway down the back on their last circuit and lost his place as a result. Joe Tizzard appeared to give him an easy time afterwards, he ran on in the end to finish 5th staying on past tired horses.  It was an eye-catching run in that it felt like a prep run for a future race? I think so, perhaps the Welsh National. Watch this one closely!

Other horses on the day that I took note of were: Handazan, Regal Encore, Far West and Rigidity.

Rigidity

The Tim Vaughan trained Rigidity ran an eye-catching race yesterday in a 2 mile novice chase at Hexham. He is one of my 10 really dark horses to follow this year and it was decent effort on ground that was far from ideal. Although it was very heavy, he finished 5th and jumped pretty nicely. I think it was a nice sighter for him and there is more to come in the future.

suggested Handazan was a 'sit and watch' horse and that ended up being the case. He was very novicy at his hurdles and appears to lack experience, I suspect the run will have done him the world of good. Give him time because he may progress with more experience to be quite smart. My thoughts on Handazan can be found at  http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html.

Handazan's conqueror, Far West from the Paul Nicholls stable, looked to be very smart too. The soft ground at Chepstow seemed to be to his liking as his action would suggest that he prefers some cut in the ground. His previous experience over hurdles was obviously to his benefit. Where Handazan's jumping was scratchy, this horse was foot perfect and he simply  'out-jumped' the Alan King trained colt. Far West looks like he may progress into a really smart horse and you would expect him to compete in top quality novice hurdles later in the year. He excites me.

Anthony Honeyball - Can Regal Encore Put Him On The Map?

If anyone missed the bumper at Chepstow, you missed out big time! The Anthony Honeyball trained Regal Encore absolutely hacked up. Jesus! He was mightily impressive. Recently purchased by JP Mcmanus, the mount of AP McCoy was simply far far far too good for his rivals. Rebecca Curtis ran Amifunnyyet in the race which she interestingly rates as one of the best horses she's ever had, whilst Paul Nicholls was represented by Mcllhatton in what was a relatively hot bumper. The winner looks something extra special though and has the potential to be one of the best bumper horses around this year. His next target may be the bumper at the Open Meeting as Honeyball wants to test the gelding in better company, looking further ahead he will be aimed at the championship bumpers in the spring. I think it's brilliant that a small trainer like Anthony Honeyball has a horse of this calibre in their yard, it's also brilliant the horse is owned by a big owner, it can only be good for racing. Regal Encore may be the horse to put Anthony Honeyball on the map, after today you would suggest he will! If you haven't seen the race, you need to get onto the Attheraces website and have a watch!! Immediately.

Any comments or views? Contact me through twitter: @JoshRWDown

13/10/12 Super Saturday Selections

Newmarket:

2:20 - Middle Park
Selection - Reckless Abandon (pictured above)
I have backed him at 2-1 and the weight of my money has already contracted the price to15-8! G Mosse comes over from France to retain the ride and gets on well with the horse. I know the Marco Botti camp are sweet on the chance of Moojaahim and feel there is improvement to come from the Prix Morny. Although he didn't get the run of the race in the Prix Morny, whereas Reckless Abandon did, I still think Clive Cox's colt would of had his measure and I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow. If Reckless Abandon was a Godolphin or Ballydoyle horse he would surely be shorter than 15-8 and I think on merit he deserves to be a shorter price than he is.

2:55 - Dewhurst
Selection - Dawn Approach
The best 2 year colt this term, he looks to cement himself as the top European 2 year colt tomorrow. His sire New Approach produces sperm in the shape of the £ sign and it appears his offspring are carrying the chromosomes which have won the derby in 2008. He will be very difficult to beat tomorrow, I have no worries about him handling the ground tomorrow as his sire won on soft.

3:35 - Cesarewitch
Selection -  Countrywide Flame (pictured above)
Fits most of the trends. An example of a few are: Drawn in stall 7, 7/10 winners drawn in stall 12 or below. Carries 8-5, 7/10 carried below 9-1. Won over 2 miles, 10/10 won over at least 1m 6f. 2006 Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City followed that up with a win in the Cesarewitch for a famous double, this horse looks to replicate that feat this year. He will handle the ground and he is a certainty to stay. Carrying 8-5 is an absolute steal and he is pricewises ante-post tip, I expect a bold show.

Chepstow:

1:55 - Juvenile Hurdle
Selection - Handazan
Those of you who read my blog yesterday will know how highly Alan King rates this horse. He is unraced over hurdles, but the ground is a concern. He would prefer it with less juice but he has won on heavy on the flat. He is probably a 'sit and watch' horse tomorrow, but he should be race fit having been on the go through the summer for John Oxx. Please revert to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html for further details.

3:00 - 2 mile 3 furlong Novice Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay (pictured above)
One of my horses to follow for the coming season. I think he will rank very highly in the pecking order of staying novice chasers this term and this looks like a nice starting point. I expect him to be too good for his rivals tomorrow. The ground will be perfect and although the trip may be a bit on the short side, it will take some getting around Chepstow tomorrow and a stamina test should be right up this fella's street. I don't understand why he's not odds on? If England were value at 1/100 against San Marino tonight, then this horse is definitely value at even money.

3:40 - 2 mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Hinterland (pictured above)
Prep run before a novice chase campaign later on in the season. Paul Nicholls must think he is still on a winnable mark off 141 and the trainer has a brilliant record in the race. He obviously targets this race as an early season money spinner. Classy animals such as Domtaline, Escort'men and Gwanako have all won this race for team Ditcheat. Although he has to give almost a stone to the rest of the field, he still should be too classy for the others. I think the main danger will be the Donald McCain horse, but at a massive price I think the Twiston-Davies horse Red Riverman could have an each way chance. He receives 24 pounds from Hinterland. Sneaking in the bottom end off 10-4 he could still be unexposed and his trainer is red hot at the moment!

4:10 - 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ulis De Vassey
Winner on heavy at Bangor. Very unexposed 4 year old who receives weight all around running off 10-4. Sneaking in at the bottom end off a mark of 112, I'm willing to take a punt on this Nick Williams runner. Last 5 winners all carried below 11-2 and were all aged 4 or 5. Can't say much more because I don't know much about the horse to be honest! lol. I think the main danger may come from Carrigmorna King. He brings the best from into the race when he was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund Final at Sandown.

4:45 - 3 mile Handicap Chase
Selection - Golden Chieftain
Winner on soft and will appreciate the stamina test. Was rated 140 over hurdles and could still be well in over fences off a mark of 129. Last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less and were aged 6-8. Golden Chieftain carries 10-13 and is aged 7, he doesn't quite fit the trend but isn't far away and is still relatively unexposed. As for the others, Le Beau Bai has a superb Chepstow record and will love the ground, but the trip may be on the sharp side and I doubt he will be fully tuned up for this race on his reappearance. I fear Rangitoto the most as he is the other unexposed horse in the race and Paul Nicholls is bang in form. The Twiston-Davies yard are also in good form and saddle Cootehill , but I think he's in the hands of the handicapper off a mark of 137 and the unexposed horses should have his measure.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through twitter: 

@JoshRWDown