Selections - 5/1/2013. Tolworth + Welsh National.

Sorry for the lack of selections recently, as you can imagine Christmas was a busy period where time spent on the laptop was kept to a minimum. I hope to get back on track this week.

Sandown

Before I start I'm really disappointed that the rearranged Dipper novices chase has had to be cancelled due to only 3 entries being submitted, I was looking forward to seeing Captain Conan again!

12:45 - 32 Red.com Listed Mares Hurdle

Kentford Grey Lady - Guaranteed
 to get the trip

A small field but it contains plenty of quality and will go some way to informing us who is the best mare behind the mighty Quevega. On pure ratings Une Artiste should win this, she has the best form having won the Fred Winter at last years Festival and more recently at Wincanton and Wetherby. It would be fair to say she has proven herself to be the best mare around over 2 miles, however she now takes a step up in trip to 2 1/2 miles here and opposes horses proven at the distance. If she wins here the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle will surely be in her radar. The ground will be heavy here so this will take some getting which is a worry and at 5/2 I think there's too many doubts to justify that price. Proven at the trip is Kentford Grey Lady, 2nd to Quevega at last years Festival was a cracking effort and that form is the strongest over 2 1/2 miles in this race. She is a big horse and takes a run or two to get fit generally, however she won first time out this year which was a tad unexpected, albeit she was left alone at the last. She will be better for that run here, but whether she is quite spot on is a worry, she took at least 2 runs to be properly fit last year. However, in receipt of 8lb here I fancy she may be good enough to see this out, particularly as she has won over 3 miles in the past, 11/10 is too short though. Alasi is an admirable mare who has been so versatile over both hurdles and fences, although she is proven at the trip, the ground is a worry and she has beaten by both Une Artiste and Kentford Grey Lady in the past. Kells Belle has decent form on testing ground and like Alasi is proven as a consistent mare, however she must overcome a poor seasonal reappearance at Kempton (where she was dismounted) and is also the Henderson 2nd string. She will be there to pick up the pieces if the big guns flop. Katkeal looks held on all form and has a bit to find on ratings.

Advice - No Bet

2:25 - Tolworth Hurdle

Court Minstrel - Classy type with form in the book

All of these horses are unexposed and look promising which makes this hard to judge. Melodic Rendezvous was a good winner at Cheltenham last month, if the race was run at a faster pace I think this horse and the 2nd Royal Boy, who re-opposes here, would have stamped their authority to a greater extent. I liked the way he travelled through the race and I thought he jumped well off a slow pace, he is also proven on testing ground at Cheltenham and when 2nd to Champagne Fever at Punchestown, he has strong claims and deserves to be favourite. Golden Hoof has winning course and distance form, that win last month was mightily impressive, his engine looks big and the turn of foot was there between the last two hurdles. The stable have won this the last 2 years and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to 3, another with obvious claims and 7/1 doesn't lack value. The fore-mentioned Royal Boy made a pleasing British debut at Cheltenham, he was doing all his best work at the end of the race and I think he might want further in time, but he the choice of Barry Geraghty here and it will be interesting to see how his form behind Melodic Rendezvous works out. Again, he is another with obvious claims but 3/1 is short for me. COURT MINSTREL is a horse I have been sweet on since I saw his impressive victory at Cheltenham in October. I thought he got a poor ride at Cheltenham in November in a race where the form has worked out well, Dodging Bullets has subsequently been 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle and River Maigue hosed up on the same card. Also he was a very smart bumper horse and is the top rated on Timeform ratings, I think he looks solid. He has never been on anything worse than good to soft which may be a concern considering as he likes to race from off the pace, but anything above 9/2 I feel is overpriced. Poet's win at Newbury was a likeable performance without being impressive, the form has been dealt a blow with the 2nd being turned over at Musselburgh yesterday, but he has the form on soft and he was a group horse on the flat so the class is there. I personally would rather side with a national hunt bred horse here because the flat recruits don't have the best record in this race. Pendra is the horse I hope wins to be honest, Charlie Longsdon is a very good trainer and starting to have the big successes he deserves. Last year he had Vulcanite who was may be a notch below top class, this year he has this horse who loves soft ground as has won very well around Plumpton twice so far this season. He takes a massive step up in class here but will love the ground, he will want further in time when looking at his pedigree, there is a chance he won't have the speed here. Le Reve has looked held in races worse than this and I doubt he will be up to this, he looks to want further.

Advice - Court Minstrel - 3pt Win @7/1 Paddy Power

3:00 - 32Red Handicap Hurdle
Ifyouletmefinish has strruggled behind some very classy horses and has perhaps been a tad unlucky to run into a few good ones, this isn't as strong as some of the races he has been competing in but I feel he may be held off 134, also the run 6 days ago may come too soon. 4/1 is no value to me against unexposed  horses. Chesil Beach Boy ran a decent race at Kempton, he found nothing off the bridle and at the age of 10, I feel he looks exposed. Valco De Touzaine is juvenile from the Nicholls stable who could be anything, he shaped with enough promise on his debut and could be very well handicapped, it's a strange race for him to run in, if he handles the ground and the hustle and bustle of a handicap, he must go close but 5/1 is too short for what he has achieved so far. Urgence D'Estruval makes his British debut for Alan King here, soft ground form from France is in the book but the stable rarely wins with this type of horse first time out, he is best watched. Ronaldo Des Motte has a great chance on his best form, he is from the right stable in terms of winning from a lay-off, but it probably best watched on the ground. At around 8/1 it probably shows that the people in the know don't really know, so I going to leave him alone. Whitby Jack is another best watched off a lay-off, whilst Kylenoe Fairy will probably appreciate better ground. SOFTSONG's form behind Petit Robin and Into Wain over course and distance looks solid, he was raised 4lb but Michael Nolan takes off 5lb here, so he is effectively 1lb below his last run here and this race is probably slightly weaker. Consequently he has strong claims, 13/2 looks fair too. Teshali has changed trainer in the summer, he looks open to improvement, but all his form is on better ground. Duaiseoir is likely to find it tricky in a tougher race here whilst Lord Of House is very unexposed and gets in off a featherweight, this is a huge step up in class and you take a punt that he will relish the hustle and bustle of a handicap at such a young age, 12/1 is too short to take that punt in my opinion. THE ITALIAN YOB has solid form behind some good horses, most notably behind Melodic Rendezvous, if he can reproduce that form he has to have a chance, like two or three others in here, he looks unexposed and has every chance if he takes to handicapping, 8/1 represents some value to me.

Advice - Softsong -2pt Win @13/2 Ladbrokes
The Italian Yob 1pt Win @8/1 Boyelsports

Chepstow

2:10 - Coral Mobile Text Mobile To 82211 Handicap Chase

Carrickboy- Eyecatching at Haydock, can he build on it here?

Gus Macrae has had a great season to date, 2 mile handicap chases has been his game and Patrick Corbett has struck up an excellent relationship with him, I worry he is looking held off 135 and they are stepping him up in trip to try and find some improvement. He may improve for the step up in distance, but I still think he looks held although at 12/1 that doesn't lack value. Mahogany Blaze and Shoegazer have both probably found their marks and are both too short, whilst Cedre Bleu is a pig and his Ascot win flagged up attitude issues. Tail Of The Bank and Cadoudalas are both 10 and are probably more exposed than others. See U Bob is very fairly treated on his best form in Ireland, he has transferred to England in the summer, he should handle the ground, 10/1 isn't value to me though. The vote goes to CARRICKBOY who is an eyecatcher for the Horse Racing Blog, he raced with real zest at Aintree and more recently Haydock, he went from the front at Haydock and was bang there before fading. He comes back in trip here which is of interest and Venetia Williams is very good at placing her horses. Carrickboy is down to a winnable mark and I hope his handler may have placed him well here, 17/2 is the most value in the race to me.

Advice - Carrickboy - 2pt Win @17/2 Paddy Power

3:20 - Coral Welsh National

Monbeg Dude - Looks slightly overpriced and Paul Carberry is an interesting booking

Readers will know that I have backed TEAFORTHREE at 8/1 ante-post for this. His efforts at Cheltenham and Newbury were very eyecatching, Rebecca Curtis has been public in saying that this horse needs two runs to get fit and that is what has been achieved, he jumps well, the ground will suit, he will stay and he races prominently which is ideal in this contest. Overall he has a lot going for him, but his chance doesn't justify his price, 3/1 is far too short. I have concerns that Across The Bay has a lot of weight, but he will love the ground, another who will love the ground is Giles Cross but I wouldn't be backing Victor Dartnell's horses with anyone's money following their bout of equine herpes. I'm not a huge fan of Michel Le Bon, I just don't think he's a natural over fences and finds it all hard work whilst Soll is too short on what he has achieved, although he will stay and is likely to relish racing prominently. Universal Soldier is a lightly raced horse who is open to improvement, I fear he doesn't have the experience to cope with this attritional contest in addition to racing scratchily at Haydock last time out, he doesn't look the smoothest of travellers. Master Overseer has a penalty to carry after his Cheltenham win, he is tailor-made for contests such as this, whether he can string two run together is a doubt, he has struggled with consistency in the past. Jadanli and Mon Mome are probably past their best, Triggerman made a satisfactory comeback off a lay-off at Cheltenham but this is still a tough ask on his 2nd start back. MONBEG DUDE is a very lightly raced horse who won well at Cheltenham two months ago, he proved he stays in testing ground and has been raised 7lb which looks fair. He wants to be held up and come late, which isn't ideal for this race, but he does have the best jockey for that type of ride in Paul Carberry on board which is very interesting. A lack of Chepstow form is a worry, but he does look a tad over priced 14/1. Sona Sasta has obvious claims with Chepstow form in the book, he won the traditional trial race for this at the track last month but like his stablemate Master Overseer, whether he can string two runs together is a worry. Our Island was 6th in this last year, he appears to handle the track and the ground, he is another year older and will hopefully be an improved horse, isn't without a chance. INCENTIVISE looks to win this prize for Richard Lee again this year, last years winner and stablemate Le Beau Bai is an absentee so this horse carries the flag, he gets in off a featherweight and he has form around Chepstow, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he made the shake up, he is out of the handicap though but 66/1 is too big. ARBOR SUPREME is very fairly treated on his best form, he scrapes in off bottom weight and is actually 13lb out of the handicap. He was rated 140 over fences 5 runs ago, he runs off 114 and Maurice Linehan takes 5lb off. The market will be telling of his chance but he is a McManus horse and at 40/1 I think he is overpriced.

Advice - Teaforthree (ante-post)  @8/1
Monbeg Dude - 1pt EW @14/1 Stan James
Incentivise - 0.5pt EW @66/1 Bet Victor
Arbor Supreme - 0.5 EW@40/1 Bet Victor

Wincanton

2:40 - Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase

Consigliere - Has he been layed out for this?

Current Event finally got his head in front at Kempton 2 months ago and is open to improvement as a 6 year old, but others are preferred. Fiendish Flame is an admirable horse and has been a joy to watch over the years, but probably looks exposed here, The Sawyer is in a similar boat. I think Big Fella Thanks needs further than this, although his comeback run at Aintree showed promise and he didn't appear to get home over 3 mile 2 furlongs. The handicapper has given Michael Flips a chance, he is the classiest horse in the race and if he can put his best foot forward he has a massive chance here, however he has ran a bit flat so far this season. This contest is much weaker than those he has been competing in, although I think 7/1 is overpriced, he has no form on soft or worse. TAKE THE BREEZE has been a good horse in his time, he will relish the ground and may be getting down to a winnable mark, whether that is 137 I'm not so sure, but 20/1 is overpriced. Tullamore Dew has been given a chance by the handicapper, he is off a career low mark over fences and like Michael Flips he has been a bit flat so far this year, if he can reproduce his old form he has a great chance but at the age of 11 I think his best days are behind him. Although, he did run a much better race last time out. CONSIGLIERE takes the vote as a previous winner of this race, he has come back down to 138 (2lb higher than last year) but Kieran Edgar is a promising conditional whose 7lb claim takes a nice bit of weight off. It's feasible this is his race to win for the year, it may be a coincidence his stable is sponsored by the race sponsors and 6/1 is slightly overpriced. Mr Gardner is a horse I like, but is probably best watched off a lay-off but has been backed here which is interesting, Plein Pouvoir may of had his day at Cheltenham, he is a big horse and a lot needs to go right for him to win generally - he is prone to a howler of a mistake!

Advice - Consigliere 2pt Win @6/1 Ladbrokes
Take The Breeze 0.75pt EW @20/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh

Selections - Saturday 22nd December

Rain has meant we will see more of the testing ground we have seen in recent weeks, both Ascot and Haydock are heavy whilst Newcastle has been forced to abandon their card. I am struggling to find any real value so it's not much of a betting day for me.

Raya Star takes the Ladbroke Hurdle last year under a brilliantly timed Wayne Hutchinson ride

Ascot

12:55 - Foundation Developments Novices Handicap Hurdle

This race will ultimately take some getting for these novice hurdlers, young horses having to slog 3 miles around Ascot on testing ground will sort them out. De La Bech will be a popular choice after his impressive 20 length victory at Lingfield last month, he appeared to revel in the heavy ground and looks to be a horse who can defy his mark off 118. The stable hasn't been in great form but had a winner here yesterday. Another horse on the upgrade is Okafranca, Jim Old's gelding has made a solid return after injury and has been raised 8lb for his latest win at Taunton which looks fair. 110 looks workable, he is also a 7 going 8 year old so has the benefit of physical and mental maturity over some of his rivals here, that is a huge plus in the testing ground. Cheat The Cheater looks to be getting better as he matures and will probably make the shake up as Kaylif Aramis and Koultas King have been running consistently but finding one or two too good, I think that will be the story again here. Wings Of Icarus was heavily supported for a handicap hurdle at Sandown last month, David Pipe has stepped him up to 3 miles which should assist as he appeared to get outpaced. He has strong claims. Call Me Sir has rose 34lb in the handicap from 69 to 103 since the summer, he is on a career high mark here and may get found out. Cornish Ice made a pleasing comeback after injury but probably will probably find the heavy ground hard work on his second start back, fitness may be an issue. A tentative selection goes to Highland Retreat, he is a winning Irish pointer and looks to be a bit of a slow plodder, but that is what this race will require and I fancy him to stay. The form of his last run isn't too bad either, Midnight Appeal has gone and ran well at Cheltenham being Coneygree and Return Spring is no mug. Jack Barber is a decent conditional, his 7lb claim is very valuable here. He looks over priced at 14/1 and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Highland Retreat 1pt EW @14/1 Bet365

2:00 - Long Walk Hurdle

Master Of The Hall - Needs a trip and on the basis
 of his best chase form, could be overpriced

Obviously the defection of Big Bucks to injury has made this race much more of a betting heat than it originally was. Smad Place was very disappointing at Wetherby on his comeback run, having travelled strongly he found nothing and weakened into a tame 3rd. Alan King has stated he wasn't happy with the grey when he got back to the yard so something may of been a miss. His form figures at Ascot read 1,2 so he goes at the track and must be better for his Wetherby effort, it must be remembered that Tidal Bay has gone to be runner-up in the Hennessy and Crack Away Jack didn't disgrace himself behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham last week. He is only a 5 year old so there is still improvement to come and if he reproduces the form that saw him finish 3rd in the World Hurdle last year, he will be hard to beat here. On that form 2/1 contains a bit of value to me, particularly as most of his rivals are not regulars in this sphere and have something to prove. Trustan Times is definitely a horse on the upgrade after his win in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, on that form he has merited a step up in class. We will find out where he stands here, he will go in ground and he will stay. I would say he looks a solid bet and he has every chance, 11/4 on what he has achieved is a tad short though in my opinion. Prospect Wells takes a big step-up in trip which I don't like on the heavy ground. Undoubtedly one of the classiest horses in the race, that may be blunted as I can see this becoming a bit of a slog, there looks to be pace in the race with a couple of confirmed front runners and whether he will stay 3 miles is a doubt in my mind. Those front runners are Kayf Aramis and Cucumber Run who both look to be slightly out of their depth here, they are likely to set the race up for the more classy horses. I understand Reve De Sivola has a decent chance based upon his 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury but I can't be having him at 9/2. Master Of The Hall only goes in small fields and is difficult to place, he is reverted back to hurdles here and on the pick of his chase form is has a chance. Tony McCoy has got on well with him in the past and the fact Geraghty has sided with stablemate Cucumber Run is of interest. 8/1 represents a bit of value to me.

Advice - Smad Place - 1pt Win @9/4 Stan James

Master Of The Hall - 1pt Win @8/1 William Hill

3:10 - Ladbroke Hurdle

Cause Of Causes looks overpriced at 16/1
 based upon his solid form

Wow this is a competitive renewal! 6 reappear from The Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, including 5 of the first 6 home, consequently the race will provide a significant form line for this. It would be appropriate to start with the winner Olofi, the 136 mark that defied him on numerous occasions last year was overcome to record a 2 length victory - he was cut up turning for home and possibly could have won by further. He has been raised 8lb to 144 which looks workable, he has obviously improved for the summer and defying this mark here is feasible. I worry slightly he's going right handed, only gone right handed once in career and there is a possibility those behind last month have got a pull at the weights here. At 14/1 earlier in the week he represented some value, but at 9's that value is all but gone. Cash And Go was runner-up to Olofi and has been raised 4lb for that effort, 145 looks a very workable mark based on what we saw last time out and he has strong claims to go one better here. Barry Geraghty has chosen him out of Nicky Henderson's 4 entries. Balder Succes is currently favourite at 6/1 generally and bids to take the honours for the King yard once again, his best form is on soft so ground conditions should be ideal. It is likely he has plenty of improvement in him as he is only 4, he has abundances of class and does a lot of work on the bridle. Whether he has more much improvement beyond his 147 mark is yet to be seen but he has obvious claims and won't be far away in my opinion, he is a little short based upon what he has achieved but the untapped potential is there to be seen. It's A Gimme ran a cracker to be second to Raya Star here last month, readers will know I'm not a huge fan and the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft is a worry, he may well act on it but I wouldn't be prepared to take the chance. Coming back from an injury is always a concern and at 9/1 Ranjaan represents little value. He is obviously talented and is French bred so should go on the ground, but this is a big ask on his comeback run. Cause Of Causes looks overpriced to me at 16/1, he was just over a length behind Cash And Go at Cheltenham and is 9pts bigger in price. I know he stayed on into 3rd and never looked like winning, but he has only gone up 3lb which looks fair to me and I think he has more strong each-way claims here. His defeat by a head in the Galway Hurdle was also a cracker. Rattan was 6th at Cheltenham but was never really in the race, he was staying on late but retains his mark of 142 which looks high enough. Double Ross was an impressive winner of the Intermediate Hurdle at the Open Meeting before running creditably at Haydock when carrying a penalty in a competitive hurdle, he hit the wall that day after the last which is a worry. This is more competitive and his handicap mark now stands at 142, that's 5lb higher than Haydock and although he will go in the ground, he may have found his level. Into Wain gets in off a feather weight after being unlucky to go down to an inspired Petit Robin at Sandown, I thought he as all over the winner that day and he must have a chance again here. Bothy ran another cracker at Cheltenham to finish 4th, he has been raised even further to 142 which looks plenty high enough, however Patrick Corbett has proved his worth and his 7lb claim is very valuable. Effectively running off a mark of 135 is a pound below the mark he finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle off. At 28/1 I think he's massively over priced and is likely to be placed once again. A worry is he has very rarely gone right handed. Petit Robin and Dan Breen both look very exposed now as Bar De Ligne, Thomas Edison and First Avenue don't have an adequate level of form that would justify a chance. Princeton Plains has a 7lb higher mark in England than Ireland, therefore he looks held here and Urbain De Sivola's form is hard to make sense of as it's all in France. He goes there to get the testing ground which he will find tomorrow, the only way I can judge him is his effort in the Triumph last year where he was 12th, although he is only 4 and could be unexposed. Rigidity (dark horse to follow) has been novice chasing but has been a tad disappointing, he reverts back to hurdles here and is off the same mark he was second last year. Returning to the scene of his best effort to date could rekindle the fire, but as one of his supporters I feel this isn't his day. Lyvius was a batting winner of the Gerry Fielden last month and looks to be on the upgrade. Rock On Ruby won that race at Newbury before going onto Champion Hurdle glory, I'm not saying this horse has that quality but he looks unexposed and fits the mould of the type of horse that wins this race. Barry Geraghty said there wasn't a lot between him and Cash And Go when it came to his decision. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional and his 5lb claim only boosts his claims, he has form on testing ground in Germany so that shouldn't be a problem either. I have backed him at 11/1 earlier in the week but wouldn't be having him at 9's which he is currently.

Advice - Lyvius - Win @11/1 (Ante-Post)
Cause Of Causes - 1pt EW @16/1 Majority
Bothy - 0.5pt EW @28/1 Bet Fred

Other horses of interest:
Desert Cry
Ulck Du Lin
Notarfbad (Eyecatcher)

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown