I know next years renewal of the Arkle is a long way off and thoughts at this time of year would seem premature, but I think it's already shaping up into a mouth watering contest!
Simonsig is obviously the talking horse of the race. Although a decision on whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing has not been made yet, if he can transfer his form over hurdles to fences he looks a serious force to be reckoned with! He was one of the most impressive novice hurdlers I've ever seen. If you look at his scope I think jumping a fence would suit him more than jumping a hurdle. He has a lot of pace and is a very strong travelling horse, much like last years winner Sprinter Sacre who is also his stable mate. I feel his high cruising speed will assist him over 2 miles as it may enable him to put his rivals to the sword, going half a stride quicker than they would prefer, hopefully placing competitors jumping under more pressure. His 3-1 ante-post price suggests there is a huge amount of confidence behind the grey and it's confidence that I share having backed him ante-post at 6-1.
If there is one horse I think can get Simonsig beat it is
Overturn. Last years Champion Hurdle runner-up has been a model of consistency finishing in the first three in all of his runs last year, mixing it with some of the best hurdlers around. Like Simonsig, if he can transfer his hurdles form to fences he will rank very high in the pecking order. I think his style of racing may counter-act Simonsig`s running style. The front-running, 'catch me if you can' tactics that Donald McCain's star uses are the perfect way to ride horse to get Simonsig beat. I can picture Overturn bowling along in front, jumping from fence to fence at his own pace, which may cause Simonsig to make a move which isn't on his own terms. Up until now Simonsig has just been so much better than his rivals that he can race effectively how he wants, doing what he wants when he wants. How will his jumping stand up when competing against a horse as classy as Overturn ? On the flip side, Simonsig might be so much better than the others that he just does a "Sprinter Sacre", winning doing hand-stands all year. Either way I think it will be fascinating to watch.
I'm struggling to find anything else that will sniff the above horses. They surely can't be good enough can they? I a huge Montbazon fan, I know Alan King loves him. Unfortunately, if he does head novice chasing I can't see him being good enough to challenge for the Arkle trophy though.
Having had my bet I'm losing confidence with every passing minute, maybe he isn't such a sure thing? I can see Overturn having his measure. What will the grey do when he's forced into something that isn't on his terms? I have no idea, but I hope I find out the answer before the Arkle to lay my ante-post nerves to rest.
The verdict: A banker changing to a blow-out .
