23/02/2013 KEMPTON SELECTIONS

1:30 REWARDS4RACING Handicap Chase
A tricky handicap chase to start the card. Storming Gale will be popular after his decent effort here 2 weeks ago behind Prince Of Pirates, Donald McCains charge was out-battled and ended up losing 2nd close home but has only been raised 2lb for that promising effort. He travelled strongly and jumped well so the drop back in trip does not worry me, he needs to be held up so the booking of Timmy Murphy is also a plus, strong claims. I was impressed with Filbert's victory at Ludlow on his chasing debut, he jumped well on the whole and appeared to want every yard of the 2 mile trip, consequently the step up to 2 1/2 miles should suit. He has run at the track twice, finishing 2nd to Bobs Worth in a bumper but worryingly his effort on Boxing Day was almost too bad to be true, this it a tough task to carry top weight on only his 2nd chasing start, 5/1 is a bit short when you weight it up. Midnight Sail has been admirably consistent this season but has found winning difficult. His mark has risen to a career high and I think he probably wants further, particularly around this tight track, others are preferred. Mickelson is another who will appreciate stepping back up in trip after he was touched off in a jumpers bumper at Lingfield last time out, he will appreciate the better ground but his jumping didn't convince at Newbury on his debut for new yard, although soft ground could have been an excuse. If change in scenery does the trick he has claims under the champion jockey. Milarrow is another who has been consistent this term, he was best of the rest here behind Radjhani Express on Boxing day and followed it up with another 2nd at Wetherby. Getting his head in front has been difficult and I expect that to happen again here. Lexicon Lad would appear to be Tom George's first string with Paddy Brennan aboard, he got stuck in the mud at Cheltenham in December but gets the good ground he requires here. He jumps well and has claims but it is the stables 2nd string who takes preference. TRIANGULAR needs good ground like his stable mate and has struggled this winter in soft ground, he can have his own ideas but is back down to the mark when he produced his best performance at Newbury this time last year. It's possible that his excursions over the national fences at Aintree last year have cost him his confidence, but if he can reproduce his form from Newbury he has claims here. At 12/1 he looks each-way value, Escort'men ran yesterday and is likely to come out, hopefully no others follow suit so each-way betting remains at 3 places.

Advice - Triangular 1pt EW @ 12/1 Betvictor

2:05 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

Vasco Du Ronceray - Pace in the pedigree

This race has served as a very good trail for the Triumph hurdle with 5 of the previous 13 winners following up Cheltenham the following month. Irish Saint heads the market after his gallant effort in defeat behind Triumph hurdle favourite Rolling Star at Cheltenham, that followed his impressive win here over course and distance in December. He jumps well but looks like wanting further in time and requires an end to end gallop to see him at his best. It looks unlikely he will get that, he may have to make it like he did at Cheltenham, that gave Rolling Star a tow that day and it's likely the same will happen again here. Whether he will have the turn of foot to quicken is a worry around a tight track like Kempton. VASCO DU RONCERAY takes preference on a return to a sounder surface. Far West had his measure at Cheltenham in November but that was on soft ground which wouldn't have suited Nicky Hendersons charge, he was well clear of the 3rd. His jumping was a bit fiddly at Doncaster next time out but he travelled strongly through the race, although a tad keen and was found wanting when push came to shove, he probably hit the front too soon. He has pace to burn, pace is in his pedigree and I think a tighter track like Kempton will suit, 7/2 looks fair. L'Unique has been suited by flat tracks at Kempton and Aintree and has done nothing wrong. The form of her wins hasn't been franked (2nd at Aintree turned over at 1/6) and whether she has the credentials to win this I'm not sure. Alan King said after her win over course and distance last time out that he would bring her here to see if she's good enough as he doesn't have an obvious Triumph hurdle horse this year. That doesn't fill me with confidence. I saw Chris Pea Green win a junior bumper at Huntingdon, although he pulled well clear it was an awful race with nothing coming out of it since. I have been surprised by how he has progressed and I never thought he would be a 140 rated hurdler, but you can't knock what he has done. He trounced some talented juveniles at Huntingdon last time out and has earn't another step up in class, whether he is good enough is unknown. I want to think not but he's proven me wrong already this season, he has to give weight away which is going to be tough and 5/1 is a bit short.  Courtesy Call was a decent stayer on the flat and makes his debut for Nicky Henderson here, a lack of jumping experience is a worry and I fear he will want further now switched to hurdles, he was 2nd in the Cesarewitch trial over 2m 2f on the flat. Fosters Road and Shadarpour have no form to suggest they will troubling the market leaders.

Advice - Vasco Du Ronceray 2pt Win @ 100/30 Stan James/Boylesports

3:50 Racing Plus Chase

Duke Of Lucca - Has been crying out for 3 miles on a flat track

It would almost be rude not to start with Nacarat, twice winner and twice placed he has an excellent record in the race. He returns to his favourite hunting ground with the handicapper giving him a chance off a mark of 155 but he hasn't appeared to be at his best so far this term, you would be banking on a return to Kempton reigniting the fire, 8/1 looks fair but he's likely to be on the downgrade at the age of 12, last year may have been his year. What A Friend is making his seasonal reappearance with another crack at the national the long term plan I would imagine, Paul Nicholls' horses tend to need a run so I am happy to steer clear on this occasion. Roberto Goldback is gradually working down to the mark of 150 where he sluiced up at Ascot in November. He runs here off 154 and with the national weights out recently he can run here without worrying about his handicap mark. A return to better ground should suit and I think he has strong each way claims, he won't want to be bottomed before the national though. Rolling Aces was impressive at Wincanton on Boxing day, easily putting today's rival Opening Batsmen in his place. That hasn't gone unnoticed by the handicapper has raised him a further 11lb to 149. That looks steep enough for a novice taking on some seasoned chasers. Paul Nicholls believes that Kempton will suit the gelding but I feel he has enough on his plate to be a 7/2 shot. The aforementioned Opening Batsmen was no match for Rolling Aces at Wincanton but did win back at the west country venue last time out, he will have to improve again to be competitive here, others preferred. Hectors Choice has been hopelessly out of form this year, a return to hurdles didn't work the trick and he is easily overlooked. Quantitativeeasing is another who has ran poorly this year, he needs better ground so can be excused those efforts. I've always thought he is best around Cheltenham so going right-handed on flat track today is unlikely to suit, he would be of more interest next month if the ground continues to dry. Quinz has been dropped 144, the mark he won this off 2 years ago. If he can reproduce that level of form he is in with a chance, Richard Johnson takes the ride which would suggest he is the stables first string. Wyck Hill is a rapidly improving chaser whose beating of Katenko at Ascot has been franked emphatically after the formers resounding victories at Sandown and Cheltenham. I was impressed how he jumped and travelled at Ascot and it's likely he is a little way ahead of his 142 rating, strong claims but 3/1 is lacking value to me. Summery Justice runs from out of the handicap which is never ideal and looks held off this mark. Same Difference has done well this season when allowed to dominate, notably when running away with a novice chase at Leicester last month, this is a tough ask for a novice and he won't get it all his own way with Nacarat and Mister Hyde liking to race prominently. Mister Hyde was a good winner here in December and gets in here off a featherweight, whether he has a race of this calibre in him is unlikely in my opinion and I expect him to be outclassed. DUKE OF LUCCA just edges preference on a return to his favoured better ground after an 84 lay off. He should be freshened up and Tom O'Brien retains the partnership that saw him go well fresh behind Roberto Goldback in November. His mark of 140 is the lowest it's ever been over fences and he's been crying out for 3 miles around a flat track, he has that touch of class and at 12/1 I feel he is each way value.

Advice - Duke Of Lucca 1.5pt EW @12/1Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

Selections - 5/1/2013. Tolworth + Welsh National.

Sorry for the lack of selections recently, as you can imagine Christmas was a busy period where time spent on the laptop was kept to a minimum. I hope to get back on track this week.

Sandown

Before I start I'm really disappointed that the rearranged Dipper novices chase has had to be cancelled due to only 3 entries being submitted, I was looking forward to seeing Captain Conan again!

12:45 - 32 Red.com Listed Mares Hurdle

Kentford Grey Lady - Guaranteed
 to get the trip

A small field but it contains plenty of quality and will go some way to informing us who is the best mare behind the mighty Quevega. On pure ratings Une Artiste should win this, she has the best form having won the Fred Winter at last years Festival and more recently at Wincanton and Wetherby. It would be fair to say she has proven herself to be the best mare around over 2 miles, however she now takes a step up in trip to 2 1/2 miles here and opposes horses proven at the distance. If she wins here the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle will surely be in her radar. The ground will be heavy here so this will take some getting which is a worry and at 5/2 I think there's too many doubts to justify that price. Proven at the trip is Kentford Grey Lady, 2nd to Quevega at last years Festival was a cracking effort and that form is the strongest over 2 1/2 miles in this race. She is a big horse and takes a run or two to get fit generally, however she won first time out this year which was a tad unexpected, albeit she was left alone at the last. She will be better for that run here, but whether she is quite spot on is a worry, she took at least 2 runs to be properly fit last year. However, in receipt of 8lb here I fancy she may be good enough to see this out, particularly as she has won over 3 miles in the past, 11/10 is too short though. Alasi is an admirable mare who has been so versatile over both hurdles and fences, although she is proven at the trip, the ground is a worry and she has beaten by both Une Artiste and Kentford Grey Lady in the past. Kells Belle has decent form on testing ground and like Alasi is proven as a consistent mare, however she must overcome a poor seasonal reappearance at Kempton (where she was dismounted) and is also the Henderson 2nd string. She will be there to pick up the pieces if the big guns flop. Katkeal looks held on all form and has a bit to find on ratings.

Advice - No Bet

2:25 - Tolworth Hurdle

Court Minstrel - Classy type with form in the book

All of these horses are unexposed and look promising which makes this hard to judge. Melodic Rendezvous was a good winner at Cheltenham last month, if the race was run at a faster pace I think this horse and the 2nd Royal Boy, who re-opposes here, would have stamped their authority to a greater extent. I liked the way he travelled through the race and I thought he jumped well off a slow pace, he is also proven on testing ground at Cheltenham and when 2nd to Champagne Fever at Punchestown, he has strong claims and deserves to be favourite. Golden Hoof has winning course and distance form, that win last month was mightily impressive, his engine looks big and the turn of foot was there between the last two hurdles. The stable have won this the last 2 years and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to 3, another with obvious claims and 7/1 doesn't lack value. The fore-mentioned Royal Boy made a pleasing British debut at Cheltenham, he was doing all his best work at the end of the race and I think he might want further in time, but he the choice of Barry Geraghty here and it will be interesting to see how his form behind Melodic Rendezvous works out. Again, he is another with obvious claims but 3/1 is short for me. COURT MINSTREL is a horse I have been sweet on since I saw his impressive victory at Cheltenham in October. I thought he got a poor ride at Cheltenham in November in a race where the form has worked out well, Dodging Bullets has subsequently been 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle and River Maigue hosed up on the same card. Also he was a very smart bumper horse and is the top rated on Timeform ratings, I think he looks solid. He has never been on anything worse than good to soft which may be a concern considering as he likes to race from off the pace, but anything above 9/2 I feel is overpriced. Poet's win at Newbury was a likeable performance without being impressive, the form has been dealt a blow with the 2nd being turned over at Musselburgh yesterday, but he has the form on soft and he was a group horse on the flat so the class is there. I personally would rather side with a national hunt bred horse here because the flat recruits don't have the best record in this race. Pendra is the horse I hope wins to be honest, Charlie Longsdon is a very good trainer and starting to have the big successes he deserves. Last year he had Vulcanite who was may be a notch below top class, this year he has this horse who loves soft ground as has won very well around Plumpton twice so far this season. He takes a massive step up in class here but will love the ground, he will want further in time when looking at his pedigree, there is a chance he won't have the speed here. Le Reve has looked held in races worse than this and I doubt he will be up to this, he looks to want further.

Advice - Court Minstrel - 3pt Win @7/1 Paddy Power

3:00 - 32Red Handicap Hurdle
Ifyouletmefinish has strruggled behind some very classy horses and has perhaps been a tad unlucky to run into a few good ones, this isn't as strong as some of the races he has been competing in but I feel he may be held off 134, also the run 6 days ago may come too soon. 4/1 is no value to me against unexposed  horses. Chesil Beach Boy ran a decent race at Kempton, he found nothing off the bridle and at the age of 10, I feel he looks exposed. Valco De Touzaine is juvenile from the Nicholls stable who could be anything, he shaped with enough promise on his debut and could be very well handicapped, it's a strange race for him to run in, if he handles the ground and the hustle and bustle of a handicap, he must go close but 5/1 is too short for what he has achieved so far. Urgence D'Estruval makes his British debut for Alan King here, soft ground form from France is in the book but the stable rarely wins with this type of horse first time out, he is best watched. Ronaldo Des Motte has a great chance on his best form, he is from the right stable in terms of winning from a lay-off, but it probably best watched on the ground. At around 8/1 it probably shows that the people in the know don't really know, so I going to leave him alone. Whitby Jack is another best watched off a lay-off, whilst Kylenoe Fairy will probably appreciate better ground. SOFTSONG's form behind Petit Robin and Into Wain over course and distance looks solid, he was raised 4lb but Michael Nolan takes off 5lb here, so he is effectively 1lb below his last run here and this race is probably slightly weaker. Consequently he has strong claims, 13/2 looks fair too. Teshali has changed trainer in the summer, he looks open to improvement, but all his form is on better ground. Duaiseoir is likely to find it tricky in a tougher race here whilst Lord Of House is very unexposed and gets in off a featherweight, this is a huge step up in class and you take a punt that he will relish the hustle and bustle of a handicap at such a young age, 12/1 is too short to take that punt in my opinion. THE ITALIAN YOB has solid form behind some good horses, most notably behind Melodic Rendezvous, if he can reproduce that form he has to have a chance, like two or three others in here, he looks unexposed and has every chance if he takes to handicapping, 8/1 represents some value to me.

Advice - Softsong -2pt Win @13/2 Ladbrokes
The Italian Yob 1pt Win @8/1 Boyelsports

Chepstow

2:10 - Coral Mobile Text Mobile To 82211 Handicap Chase

Carrickboy- Eyecatching at Haydock, can he build on it here?

Gus Macrae has had a great season to date, 2 mile handicap chases has been his game and Patrick Corbett has struck up an excellent relationship with him, I worry he is looking held off 135 and they are stepping him up in trip to try and find some improvement. He may improve for the step up in distance, but I still think he looks held although at 12/1 that doesn't lack value. Mahogany Blaze and Shoegazer have both probably found their marks and are both too short, whilst Cedre Bleu is a pig and his Ascot win flagged up attitude issues. Tail Of The Bank and Cadoudalas are both 10 and are probably more exposed than others. See U Bob is very fairly treated on his best form in Ireland, he has transferred to England in the summer, he should handle the ground, 10/1 isn't value to me though. The vote goes to CARRICKBOY who is an eyecatcher for the Horse Racing Blog, he raced with real zest at Aintree and more recently Haydock, he went from the front at Haydock and was bang there before fading. He comes back in trip here which is of interest and Venetia Williams is very good at placing her horses. Carrickboy is down to a winnable mark and I hope his handler may have placed him well here, 17/2 is the most value in the race to me.

Advice - Carrickboy - 2pt Win @17/2 Paddy Power

3:20 - Coral Welsh National

Monbeg Dude - Looks slightly overpriced and Paul Carberry is an interesting booking

Readers will know that I have backed TEAFORTHREE at 8/1 ante-post for this. His efforts at Cheltenham and Newbury were very eyecatching, Rebecca Curtis has been public in saying that this horse needs two runs to get fit and that is what has been achieved, he jumps well, the ground will suit, he will stay and he races prominently which is ideal in this contest. Overall he has a lot going for him, but his chance doesn't justify his price, 3/1 is far too short. I have concerns that Across The Bay has a lot of weight, but he will love the ground, another who will love the ground is Giles Cross but I wouldn't be backing Victor Dartnell's horses with anyone's money following their bout of equine herpes. I'm not a huge fan of Michel Le Bon, I just don't think he's a natural over fences and finds it all hard work whilst Soll is too short on what he has achieved, although he will stay and is likely to relish racing prominently. Universal Soldier is a lightly raced horse who is open to improvement, I fear he doesn't have the experience to cope with this attritional contest in addition to racing scratchily at Haydock last time out, he doesn't look the smoothest of travellers. Master Overseer has a penalty to carry after his Cheltenham win, he is tailor-made for contests such as this, whether he can string two run together is a doubt, he has struggled with consistency in the past. Jadanli and Mon Mome are probably past their best, Triggerman made a satisfactory comeback off a lay-off at Cheltenham but this is still a tough ask on his 2nd start back. MONBEG DUDE is a very lightly raced horse who won well at Cheltenham two months ago, he proved he stays in testing ground and has been raised 7lb which looks fair. He wants to be held up and come late, which isn't ideal for this race, but he does have the best jockey for that type of ride in Paul Carberry on board which is very interesting. A lack of Chepstow form is a worry, but he does look a tad over priced 14/1. Sona Sasta has obvious claims with Chepstow form in the book, he won the traditional trial race for this at the track last month but like his stablemate Master Overseer, whether he can string two runs together is a worry. Our Island was 6th in this last year, he appears to handle the track and the ground, he is another year older and will hopefully be an improved horse, isn't without a chance. INCENTIVISE looks to win this prize for Richard Lee again this year, last years winner and stablemate Le Beau Bai is an absentee so this horse carries the flag, he gets in off a featherweight and he has form around Chepstow, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he made the shake up, he is out of the handicap though but 66/1 is too big. ARBOR SUPREME is very fairly treated on his best form, he scrapes in off bottom weight and is actually 13lb out of the handicap. He was rated 140 over fences 5 runs ago, he runs off 114 and Maurice Linehan takes 5lb off. The market will be telling of his chance but he is a McManus horse and at 40/1 I think he is overpriced.

Advice - Teaforthree (ante-post)  @8/1
Monbeg Dude - 1pt EW @14/1 Stan James
Incentivise - 0.5pt EW @66/1 Bet Victor
Arbor Supreme - 0.5 EW@40/1 Bet Victor

Wincanton

2:40 - Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase

Consigliere - Has he been layed out for this?

Current Event finally got his head in front at Kempton 2 months ago and is open to improvement as a 6 year old, but others are preferred. Fiendish Flame is an admirable horse and has been a joy to watch over the years, but probably looks exposed here, The Sawyer is in a similar boat. I think Big Fella Thanks needs further than this, although his comeback run at Aintree showed promise and he didn't appear to get home over 3 mile 2 furlongs. The handicapper has given Michael Flips a chance, he is the classiest horse in the race and if he can put his best foot forward he has a massive chance here, however he has ran a bit flat so far this season. This contest is much weaker than those he has been competing in, although I think 7/1 is overpriced, he has no form on soft or worse. TAKE THE BREEZE has been a good horse in his time, he will relish the ground and may be getting down to a winnable mark, whether that is 137 I'm not so sure, but 20/1 is overpriced. Tullamore Dew has been given a chance by the handicapper, he is off a career low mark over fences and like Michael Flips he has been a bit flat so far this year, if he can reproduce his old form he has a great chance but at the age of 11 I think his best days are behind him. Although, he did run a much better race last time out. CONSIGLIERE takes the vote as a previous winner of this race, he has come back down to 138 (2lb higher than last year) but Kieran Edgar is a promising conditional whose 7lb claim takes a nice bit of weight off. It's feasible this is his race to win for the year, it may be a coincidence his stable is sponsored by the race sponsors and 6/1 is slightly overpriced. Mr Gardner is a horse I like, but is probably best watched off a lay-off but has been backed here which is interesting, Plein Pouvoir may of had his day at Cheltenham, he is a big horse and a lot needs to go right for him to win generally - he is prone to a howler of a mistake!

Advice - Consigliere 2pt Win @6/1 Ladbrokes
Take The Breeze 0.75pt EW @20/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh