The King George Preview 2012

Kauto Star - Following the star
on boxing day is no longer the norm

The mid-season highlight of the National Hunt season is fast approaching and for the first time in 6 years, the legendary figure of Kauto Star, who won 5 of the last 6 renewals, will not be present due to retirement. Without the horse who has won more King George's than anyone else, the race has suddenly become a much more open affair, also the recent dominance of second season chasers adds even more spice to the mix. Overall, on paper, the 2012 King George VI chase has all the makings of a blockbuster.



Been there. Done it. Got the t-shirt.

Due to Kauto Star's recent dominance, only one previous winner lines up in the race, that horse is 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run. On route to that momentous triumph in March, a rearranged visit to Kempton in January for the King George was a significant stepping stone. Kauto Star's one and only defeat in the contest came at the hands of Long Run, although the recently retired gelding wasn't at his best that day, Long Run was a seriously impressive winner. At the tender age of 6, his smooth 12 length success earned him an official rating of 179 and also elevated him to the head of the Gold Cup market. On pure ratings, his performance in the Gold Cup was 3lbs better than Kempton at 182. The 3 mile staying division was his dominate for years to come. How things have gone in the opposite direction, he has never matched or eclipsed that 182 rating in his next 5 efforts. There have been excuses, a new course record at Newbury in the Denman Chase and a dethroning in the Gold Cup since. On the day he broke the course record Burton Port was close up but didn't frank the form in the Gold Cup or Bowl at Aintree afterwards, therefore I feel the solidity of the form is questionable. A defeat first time out this year to the improving Silviniaco Conti was probably a bit unlucky, the race wasn't run to suit and it cost him. How many more chances am I willing to give him? Plenty. How many more chances am I willing to give his jockey? Very few. I know this is a bit on a contentious issue, but I feel the reason he gets beat is Sam Waley-Cohen. He's a good jockey, but he's an amateur jockey, he can't claim his 5lb in Grade 1's which means Long Run has got to be at least 5lb better than his opponents (arguably more against the likes of Walsh, Geraghty and McCoy, who are another 5lb better than your average jockey). I don't think Long Run is 10lb better than anything they ride! Do I blame Long Runs owner Robert Waley-Cohen for wanting his son to ride the horse? Absolutely not, it's a family horse so why wouldn't his son ride it? My dad would do the same. The horse may have peaked early like so many French breds to scale the heights he did in 2011, but for the reasons explained above, I can't be having him.

Need to know if you stay 3 miles? All roads lead to Kempton.

In terms of impressive performances so far this season, don't look too far past Cue Card's demolition job in the Haldon Gold Cup. His 26 length win over 2 mile 2 furlongs at Exeter has earn't him quotes of biggest 9/2 for this and he is strongly fancied by his handler Colin Tizzard to run a huge race. This will be his first attempt at 3 miles and it appears he will relish the step up in trip. He has a high cruising speed but is also a strong galloper, racing prominently here using those qualities gives him strong claims. As we know top class horses over shorter distances have had success in the King George, therefore I don't think he will be far away. A worry is he goes best fresh, also he may not be as classy as other horses making the step-up in trip, we have the reigning Queen Mother and Ryanair winners in the race.

2nd in 2010 and winner of the Ryanair last year, Riverside Theatre has strong claims that can't be ignored. The Ryanair was an odd performance, although he won, he was never travelling and Barry Geraghty gave him a great ride. It looked like he could never quite go the pace, Geraghty was niggling along from a long way out, but he rallied gamely to stay on up the hill to nail Medermit close home. He may have bounced slightly after his comeback win at Ascot in February. The Ryanair win proved to me he stays 3 miles. A strongly run Ryanair round a stiff track like Cheltenham wouldn't be to dissimilar to 3 miles around Kempton. He was rode to stay 3 miles in 2010, I feel he is a better horse now who truly stay 3 miles and can be ridden to win the race. However, the added plus is that he has the pace to win over a shorter distance which is crucial around a speed track like Kempton. On that basis he sways into favour. He is a solid bet an goes well mad fresh, connections have waited to run here first time out. One worry is his jockey, Geraghty will have the choice of him and Finians Rainbow and if he deserts Riverside Theatre, a winning combination will be broken which is far from ideal.

Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have long been saying that Finians Rainbow would be better suited by trip. As a 2 mile novice chaser he was a bit of tearaway who pulled hard, consequently he had to be allowed to go from the front. Last year he matured and learnt to settle, this has made him more tactically versatile, his reward was a win in the Queen Mother last spring, before making the step-up in trip to win the Melling Chase at Aintree really impressively. That has merited him to step-up further to compete here. Connections are taking a step into the unknown regarding his stamina, he appeared to be better for further at Aintree and there is every possibility that may be the case here too. Put a line through his seasonal reappearance, jockey said he hated the heavy ground and nothing found to be a miss afterwards, it should have him spot on for this. In terms of classy animals Finians Rainbow ranks highly and will have the speed to compete around Kempton. Main worries include: whether he will stay, if the ground comes up heavy and which one of the Henderson horses Geraghty rides - he was key to the success Finains Rainbow and Riverside Theatre had last year.

Sizing Europe, in my mind, is undoubtedly the classiest horse in this race. If he comes across from the Ireland, he stands a fantastic chance. Surely if his owners want to stay 3 miles, and be successful over 3 miles, Kempton is ideal? 3 miles around a speed track would surely be perfect? Rather than 3 miles in testing ground in Ireland. It is looking increasingly likely he is going to stay in Ireland to run in the Paddy Power chase over Christmas, I find it disappointing. He is 10 going on 11 and probably won't get many more opportunities to have a crack at the King George. It is also a worry if the ground turns testing. You can back him 'with a run' with Paddy Power at 6/1 which isn't the worst bet, although it doesn't contain abundances of value.

Whose got a point to prove?

Grands Crus has been a huge disappointment on his last 2 outings, first in the RSA where his blood was apparently wrong and more recently, when pulled up in last months Paddy Power. The grey has undergone a breathing operation since which is threatening his participation here. I was at Cheltenham that day, after the race an announcement came over the tanoy after the Paddy Power that said David Pipe had been called to the stewards room to explain his grey's effort, Mr Pipe responded he couldn't provide an answer. If a breathing operation was needed, Tom Scudamore would have surely heard him make a noise, but it doesn't appear he did and therefore I believe it is a stab in the dark to get his career back on track. There is a possibility it could make all the difference and Grands Crus returns to the horse of old, recapturing the form that saw him win the Feltham in devastating style last year. If he does, he will be very competitive. However, the doubt over his participation and his recent lack of form is enough to make me look elsewhere.

The Kauto name will once again be represented when Kauto Star's half-brother, Kauto Stone, lines up for the deadly Paul Nicholls. The stable were dealt a very cruel blow when Paddy Power winner Al Ferof was rule out with a tendon injury on the 17th December, two days after Cristal Bonus fatally broke his pelvis at Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh now takes the ride on Kauto Stone, who must prove he can retain a strong level of form throughout the season. Last season started with a bang when winning the Ladbroke chase at Down Royal over 2 1/2 miles, before dropping back in trip to finish a respectable 2nd to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek the following month. Thereafter, his form completely tailed off, his next 3 outings saw form figures of 7F7. Paul Nicholls has stated he has got to grips with how to train him this year and feels he is a better horse for it. On the form of his winning return to Down Royal in the 3 mile JN Wine Champion Chase, it's feasible he's got to the bottom of him. If he can retain the level of form that saw him win at Down Royal last month, he's in with a chance if the ground is soft but others are preferred.

Captain Chris carries the tag 'the best horse Richard Johnson has ever ridden', which when you consider Johnson has ridden Looks Like Trouble to a Gold Cup success, Flagship Uberalles to a Queen Mother victory and won a Champion Hurdle on Rooster Booster, its a hefty accolade to carry. Since winning the Arkle in 2011, the wheels have come off slightly. He was unlucky at Exeter, but ran creditably to finish 3rd here last year and then again when 4th in the Ryanair. This season has started much better than last with a win at Ascot in the Amlin, beating runaway Old Roan winner For Non Stop and Finians Rainbow who re-opposes here. He needs to go right handed and will act on most ground, he has claims but others are preferred more. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if he was competitive but I'm not convinced the Hobbs horses are running to there best at the moment.

Any value at the prices?

Hunt Ball was much shorter than he currently is before his run in the Paddy Power. A flat track over 3 miles will suit and he showed he could compete in a similar contest when 3rd in the Bowl at Aintree, which wasn't bad considering he was thought to be over the top by his trainer Keiran Burke. It would be a fairytale if he won after his meteoric rise in the weights last year, I think it's unlikely he will win but I do think he has a chance of being placed, 33/1 is worth a little E/1 wager in my opinion. Soft ground would be a worry though.

Champion Court is in a similar boat to Hunt Ball. So often the bridesmaid of novice chases last year, that form isn't looking too bad now after the recent dominance of second season chasers this season. Martin Keighley was very pleased with his seasonal reappearance at Ascot which saw his first run on heavy ground, he would of won if Evan Williams hadn't performed a master stroke to to bring the extremely well handicapped Williams Wishes back off a 600 day break. His best form has come at Cheltenham where he can dominate from the front over 2 1/2 miles, whether he can transfer that form to a flat track, going a different way round and over an extra half mile is a worry. Like Hunt Ball, he is worth a little E/W wager at 33/1 bearing in mind how solid his form in novice chases was last year.

Advice
Riverside Theatre 3pt Win - @6/1 Ladbrokes
Sizing Europe 1pt Win - @6/1 'With a run' Paddy Power
Hunt Ball 0.5pt E/W - @33/1 Paddy Power (Ante-Post Bet)
Champion Court 0.5pt EW - @33/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

Cheltenham International Meeting - Saturday 15th December

Fridays action was a good one for me financially, but in terms of the blogs selections, things could have gone better. Hildisvini sadly lost his life after his fall at the 2nd last, he wouldn't have won but wasn't disgracing himself in defeat. It's a real shame as he was a horse on an upward curve going places, how far he would of gone we will never know. Falcarragh appeared to get stuck in the mud and Midnight Chase was a non-runner. The ground has deteriorated dramatically today and the heavy going makes tomorrow much more difficult, in particular as there is a few short priced favourites who look vulnerable.

Cheltenham 

12:45 - Ryman Stationary Novices Chase

Court In Motion will love the ground and doesn't appear to have lost any ability after injury,  but won't want to be too much shorter than 5/2 (if he turns up)

Our Father is sure to be a popular choice after his effortless win here last month, his jumping was accurate and precise, possibly a bit big, but he cruised though the soft ground to win by a comfortable 20 lengths. On that basis he has strong claims here. It's unlikely he will get stuck in the mud, he has a lot of scope and proved he handles the cut in the ground he will face tomorrow last time out. A worry is he has been seen best fresh in the past, on his 3 seasonal reappearances he has won all 3, but has failed to follow these up and has been a little disappointing thereafter. Also regular pilot Timmy Murphy is out injured, although Tom Scudamore is a more than able deputy, the winning partnership has been broken. Overall, there is enough to put me off, especially at 4/5, that's plenty short enough. If Lingfield (First Preference) is off, Court In Motion takes the vote as a strong travelling horse who goes in the heavy. His victory as a novice hurdler in testing conditions at Warwick was very impressive, finishing 2nd to Back In Focus, who is making a mockery of staying novice chases on testing ground in Ireland for Willie Mullins, on his next start as a novice hurdler was far from poor, what was most taking was the smooth headway and strong travelling qualities he showed on both appearances. He progressed to run third in the Albert Bartlett so course form is in the book before injury struck and he had a lay off. His two comeback starts over fences have been promising behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Dynaste and he receives weight from all his rivals here, he wouldn't want to get any shorter than 5/2 though. Emma Lavelle also saddles Highland Lodge, he flopped in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Warwick behind Cotton Mill last season but has made a smooth transition to fences this term. Harry Topper sprouted wings to over take him at Newbury last time out, however he did look held in second beforehand and his official rating of 139 leaves him with something to find with the former two. What A Warrior hasn't been disgraced in two novice chase defeats here this term, his jumping must improve but if he gets his act together he could run into 2nd at a big price. Best Served Cold has soft ground form in the book in Ireland, but doesn't appeal here as Simply Ben has a lot to find on official ratings.

Advice - (Depending on whether Court In Motion is a non-runner)
CIM Runs - 3pt win @11/4 Bet365 
CIM Non-Runner - 2pt Straight Forecast - Our Father to beat What A Warrior

1:20 - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase

Pepite Rose will prefer betting going but is a model of consistency and may run into a place

Shooters Wood looks to build upon his win in the November running of this race here last month, he has been raised 8lb for that win to 132 which could be workable and gets in here off 10 stone. Ruby Walsh is doing his minimum weight and having him aboard is a huge plus as the winning partnership is retained, but he is one I'm going to side against here. His has never raced on anything worse than soft, considering he has been on the go throughout the summer, he would probably prefer better ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Also he showed plenty of speed last time out but that weapon may be blunted tomorrow on softer ground and on the new course, which tests stamina further than the old, may further mitigate his high speed. Oiseau Du Nuit is a very admirable horse and owes me nothing, but his current mark of 158 is career high and conceding a stone all round is going to be hard in this ground, easily opposed. Pepite Rose was a massive improver last year, her two starts this year have been a little disappointing, particularly last time out on heavy ground at Ascot. I think she will be better seen on better ground and tomorrow probably isn't her day, but she is likely to run into a place. Her mark of 144 is high enough, but she is only a 5 year old and hopefully still has improvement in her. Oh Crick ran a cracker behind Ulck Du Lin at Newbury after running creditably here in November, although Joshua Newman takes off a valuable 7lb, he still looks in the hands of the handicapper. Imperial Shabra has a 6lb higher rating in the UK than he does in Ireland and has a lot on his plate here, whilst West With The Wind has been hopelessly out of form recently. That leaves David Pipe's two runners. His Excellency won here in October and his still a novice, he was well behind in the Tingle Creek last week and looks held off 147. Potentially the stables first string is a newcomer from France who makes his British debut here. Garynella has form on the soft in France and has form over further than 2 miles, this race will take some getting in the ground and proving he gets further than 2 miles sways him into favour. He is officially 2lb out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me to much and he gets in off a featherweight. It hasn't gone unnoticed as he's 7/2 joint-favourite generally, which is possibly a tad short so at the prices I will be having Pepite Rose E/W.

Advice - Pepite Rose - 1.5pt EW @17/2 Bet365
Garrynella - 3pt Win @4/1 Paddy Power

2:30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

Notus De La Tour should handle the ground and has a big race win in him somewhere

Walkon is fancied to go one better than his 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He is best fresh and has struggled to build upon his efforts first time out in the past, consequently I can't be having him and 4/1 doesn't represent any value anyway. Unioniste comes into the race very unexposed having won a novice chase at Aintree, before being out classed here last month behind Dynaste. He is on a potentially attractive handicap mark on his handicap debut and should handle the ground having won on heavy in France. His age worries me as a 4 year old may find the hustle and bustle of a competitive handicap unnerving. Also the jockey booking of Harry Derham, whose claim of 5lb is very useful, is a bit of a worry as I would prefer a jockey with more experience in a race such as this. Ruby Walsh partners Cristal Bonus whose winning seasonal reappearance at Down Royal was impressive and he loves the soft. As a novice chaser last year he ranked highly, running very well to finish 2nd to Menorah at Aintree after not being right at the festival, he is very highly rated at home. 157 is high mark to be winning this though, however siding against second season chasers this year hasn't been advisable. Has strong claims. Notus De La Tour takes my vote as a progressive horse who has been on my radar for some time. I have no qualms about him going in the ground as he is a French bred, who also ran creditably in Ireland last term in testing conditions. There is hopefully improvement to come and I would hope he is a bit better than his current mark of 144. 7/1 is probably a bit short on reflection of his chance though, I am on ante-post at 10/1. Nadiya De La Vega won here in October and was raised to 145, she ran to that mark in the Paddy Power too but probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race. Quantitativeeasing has a win and two 2nds to his name at the track but still looks held in the handicappers hands, much like Astracad and Renard, although the former stepping up in trip could bring out some improvement. I think Tatenen is best going right handed and doesn't have a great Cheltenham record, whilst Wishfull Thinking has been a ridiculously annoying horse to follow, carrying top weight will be tricky and I'm not convinced how well the Hobbs horses are running at the moment. Michael Flips has been a little disappointing so far this season, he hasn't recaptured the form that saw him run 4th in last years Jewson. Tartak is gradually slipping down the handicap the whole time and his day will come, whether it is here I don't know, but he may be worth a little wager each-way at 20/1.

Advice - Notus De La Tour - 10/1 Ante-Post. 
Tartak - 0.5pt EW - @22/1 Coral

3:05 - Stan James International Hurdle

Grandouet (Centre) - If he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he should go close

This is a match of up between 3 horses and choosing the winner has become increasingly difficult with the ground turning testing. Reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby has been slightly overlooked for this as his victory in March has been rendered a bit of a fluke. I personally think that the win was much better than people are giving it credit. Noel Fehily knew his horse stayed 2 and a half miles so was prominent and kicked for home coming off the home bend, but he wasn't being caught on the line, I wouldn't say he 'slipped the field' either. It could be argued it was poor jockeyship from those behind, I think there is an element of that certainly, but that isn't solely responsible. I will stick my neck on the line and say Rock On Ruby was a decent winner of the Champion Hurdle. He won by 4 lengths, that margin wasn't diminishing close home. The fact the rest of the field didn't get to fellow front runner Overturn either is the counter-argument, they were 2 lengths off him, but 6 lengths off Rock On Ruby! On that basis I can't see how he isn't favourite for this. We know he stays 2 and a half and that will be to his advantage tomorrow on ground that will make it more of a stamina test. He is currently 2/1, there is a bit of value in that price. Zarkandar is far too short for me at 5/4. Admittedly he wasn't right last year and still ran a staying on fifth in the Champion Hurdle after winning the Betfair, before falling at Aintree. His reappearance win at Wincanton was very taking considering he was giving away 17lb to the second, he also showed excellent battling qualities. The run he has under his belt will assist and he will be 100% fit for this, which is a bonus on the testing ground. The 4lb he receives off the other big players in the market will assist and the bigger emphasis on 'stamina' the new course requires will be right up his street, I still think he is best over 2 and a half. However, at the prices he's best left alone. One of the forgotten horses this year is Grandouet. Before injury struck he was my fancy for this Champion Hurdle having one this race last year, in the process getting rid of any doubts he wouldn't get up the Prestbury Park hill. A long absence of just over a year isn't ideal and the energy sapping ground will bring any lack of fitness to the fore, however Nicky Henderson is the master at bringing horses back from a break to win first time out. Hopefully he retains all old ability and if he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he will be hard to beat. At the prices, 5/2 is the best value in the race to me.

Advice - Grandouet - 3pt Win @5/2 Paddy Power

Other horses of interest tomorrow:
Aerial
Vasco Du Ronceray
Ikorodu Road E/W
Easter Meteor

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown