Super Saturday Selections - 3/11/2012

What a days racing! For many the jump season proper starts tomorrow at Wetherby for the Charlie Hall, but we are spoilt with a superb card at Ascot for the United House Gold Cup playing a role which is far from supportive! The icing on the cake comes in the evening when the Breeders Cup sparks into life where the European raid looks to be strong once again!

However on a day where the quality of racing is so high, I am finding hard to get really stuck into my selections this week. This is probably due to my selections having no value in their price.

Wetherby:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - Overturn  Is Simonsig A Banker Or A Blowout
Many of you readers will be aware that I have been a supporter of Overturn for a long time. Those who read my blog about Simonsig being an Arkle banker will know that I believe Overturn to be Simonsigs greatest danger next March, if he transfers his hurdles form to fences of course. Therefore, I can't see him getting beat tomorrow unless he tips up. The race isn't the strongest and there should be nothing in his league. His price will be very very small, but I believe he will justify it and he's my banker of the day. May lack imagination but the return is as near a penalty kick as you're going to get. I've noticed this morning he is a non-runner, sorry to have wasted you're time!

Smad Place

2:50 - 3 Mile Hurdle
Selection - Smad Place
This was another obvious choice for me. This grey is still a young horse who had a brilliant season last year, which culminated in a 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle. That represents the best form that any of these bring to the table, more importantly he should still be on the upgrade as he is only 5. That is more that can be said about the others! Tidal Bay and Fair Along have seen better days now, although I think Tidal Bay could be the one to upset the party if he has a going day, but that's a big if! Restless Harry and Crack Away Jack simply have been proven not to be good enough and look a little way behind Smad Place. Finally, Cape Tribulation had a fantastic end to his season last year when winning at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he's going to have to improve on that to compete here. All in all, you would expect Smad Place to build on what he did last year and if he has, he will be too good for these. I think 15/8 is a stonking bet!

3:25 - Charlie Hall Chase
Selection - Planet Sound (at the prices)
If Planet Of Sound recaptures the form he showed first time out in the Hennessy last year he will go very very close. He will be carrying my money at 5/1. Whereas 5/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a ridiculous price. I looked at him earlier on in the week and umed and erred about backing him at 5/2, let alone 5/4! I didn't think 5/2 was value anyway. He should go well tomorrow and is the most likely winner, but at the prices I'm leaving him alone. Paul Nicholls rates him as his best 3 mile chaser this year, but has stated that he needs to mature to be a serious Gold Cup contender, he thinks 2014 will be the chestnuts year. Silviniaco Conti looks to have a lot in his favour. Master Of The Hall could be a danger, he has one first time out the last two years and Nicky Henderson has an astonishingly good record of bringing horses back after a break. My only worry is if he will be good enough to concede the weight. Time For Rupert could also be a danger, Paul Webber thought he never quite had him right last year but he still ran well, shown by his 5th place finish in the Gold Cup. He was 2nd in this race last year and it wouldn't be a surprise if he goes one better this year. As for the others, Midnight Chase is surely too old now and may find a horse on the upgrade such as Silviniaco Conti too strong and Wayward Prince is trained by John Parrotts wife...

Ascot

1:25 - 2 Mile 3 Furlong Beginners Chase
Selection - Hadrian's Approach
This race looks a bit of a two horse affair. I have selected Hadrian's Approach because I know Nicky Henderson has been a big fan of this horse since the day he arrived at the yard. Although he is relatively inexperienced, he has winning form around Ascot. However he was probably held when he fell 2 out on his last start at the track. I'm not too worried about his lack of jumping experience, he has already won a point to point and Barry Geraghty has said he's been sharp when schooling at home in his Atheraces blog this week. I think he was given a break after he fell last time out to allow him to mature, as he looked like a bit of a baby last year. He just shades it over Rolling Aces, who ran well at Cheltenham last month without quite getting up the hill. At the bottom of the hill he was travelling as well as any, but he couldn't quite go with the leaders. That was a hurdle and it will have sharpened him up for his chasing debut here, however he also has some chasing experience because he was a point to point winner. This race is shorter in trip by 2 furlongs than Cheltenham which may help him, but to be honest I'm really clutching at straws here because there really isn't much between him and Hadrian's Approach.

2:00 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - My Tent Or Yours
My Tent Or Yours is a very exciting novice hurdler this year and is a horse I'm very keen on. I find it interesting J P McManus has snapped him up over the summer, although I must admit I would rather have Geraghty on his back than McCoy. Geraghty was eager to stress that My Tent Or Yours was schooling well at home in his Atheraces blog, he was a good bumper horse last year and got very close to subsequent Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One at Aintree last spring. All things considered, I think he should go well. I think his biggest danger will come from Chiberta King. This resident of Andrew Balding's stable looks a very interesting recruit to the national hunt scene. He was competing in the top class staying races on the flat, against the top class horses. Rated as high as 108 on the flat, he was certainly no mug! My only worry is that these horses who were good on the flat don't always transfer their talent to hurdles immediately, they normally take some time to get their act together. Consequently, My Tent Or Yours shades it.

Ile De Re Looks To Have  Strong Claims

2:35 - 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ile De Re
I have already backed him at 4/1 and I am extremely happy! Whilst writing  he his currently 11/4 and I can only see his price contracting further. His last run at Ascot on Champions Day was relatively disappointing, but I always thought he would struggle in that company. However, I can't help but feel he wasn't given the hardest time once he was beaten and consequently the run shouldn't have taken too much out of him. Therefore I think the run should have put him bang on for this race, and off a mark of 123, he could be the best handicapped horse I have seen since Hunt Ball! 4/1 could be an absolutely massive price! I fancy him strongly. The opposition is strong though, it's a very competitive race! War Singer looks unexposed, but I am put off by how David Pipe's horses are going at the moment. I've seen a few running the odd stinker recently, although you would imagine it's the calm before the storm at the Open Meeting in 2 weeks time! I believe Raya Star to be handicapped to the hill and this is a fitness building exercise before he embarks on a novice chasing campaign, although Alan King couldn't be in better form! Changing The Guard has ran so consistently in lower class races and this step up should find him out unfortunately and I'm just not a big It's A Gimme fan. Cape Express has been raised 11 pounds in the weights since last weeks win at Aintree, he won impressively and I think he may be able to overcome the rise. He looks to be the main danger along with Claret Cloak from the Emma Lavelle yard. He brings solid form into the race when he finished within 2 lengths of smart bumper horse Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury and has also got the better of opponent War Singer in the past, whilst also being too strong for Bold Henry who recently ran very well to be a close 2nd to the smart Paul Nicholls chaser Rebel Rebellion. I think there is definitely more to come.

3:10 - United House Gold Cup
Selection - Baile Anrai e/w (If I had to have a bet)
I don't really fancy any of these to be honest. I like Baile Anrai because he is in one of my ten to follows, but I don't have much confidence. I don't like backing horses out of the handicap, especially when they're 7 pounds out! It's a bit of a sentimental bet. The opposition look to have strength in depth, but not in massive quality. I don't like Ace High because Victor Dartnell is in terrible form, I think Alfie Spinner needs further and Duke Of Lucca needs better ground. On the flip side, the ground needs to be juicier for Cannington Brook and I have doubts if Poquelin really wants 3 miles. Tullamore Dew went off the boil towards the end of last year and he will have to recapture his old form to stand a chance here, history tells us he also tends to need a run to sharpen him up. If I had to have a win bet it would be Join Together, the stable are in good form and he tends to run his best races at the beginning of the year. In terms of a win bet, he shades just over Roberto Goldback whose transfer to England is intriguing, particularly because he prefers good ground which he is more likely to get in this country.

Other horses I will be backing on the day:
Criqtonic
Brick Red
Baby Shine
Jetnova
Bog Warrior
Joncol

Owners To Follow - The McNeill Family

The McNeill Family have had their fair share of the limelight when it comes to big race successes and I think it's likely to be case again this year. Horses to take into battle this year include: Champion Hurdle contender Grumeti. High-class handicappers Kumbeshwar, Olofi and Walkon. Potentailly exciting juveniles Handazan and Arabian Heights. The 2012 Sefton Hurdle winner Lovcen is also partly owned by the McNeills. With this kind of ammunition carrying the iconic blue and white hoops silks with burgundy sleeves and cap, you would expect the silks to be gracing the winners enclosure rather frequently!

Grumeti:
Alan King has been public in saying that he thinks this horse is the best juvenile he has ever trained. Now that's a bold statement! The King of Barbury Castle has had many top class juveniles over the years, including two Triumph Hurdle winners, Penzance, subsequent Champion Hurdle Winner Katchit as well as Walkon and the sadly ill-fated Mille Chief. The geldings first season was a very good one. He came a bit out of the unknown to score at Taunton on his debut at 11/2, before being an unlucky faller when having the race at his mercy at Newbury next time out. I think he hadn't quite got over the fall on his next start at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day where he won, albeit in the stewards room. Although he had a mild injury scare, the break between then and The Festival obviously did him the world of good. His run in Triumph was a cracker. He made a bad mistake down the back and although he finished 3rd, if he had met the last on a stride instead of fiddling over it, he may have won. Revenge over his Triumph conqueror Countrywide Flame was sweet at Aintree though. In my eyes, I thought he was just about the best juvenile last year and he should have matured nicely over the summer, he could be a much improved horse this year. King stated that Grumeti had improved quite a lot for his runs on the flat in the summer, before he had gone for his summer break! In relation to the Champion Hurdle, Grumeti looks to be another competitive addition to what is looking a very competitive race on the whole - he can be found at 25/1 Ante-post. The 4 year old hurdling season is notoriously tough, but he takes his racing well and could be underrated, I wouldn't be writing him off.

Lovcen (Right) - Will Be An Interesting Recruit To The Novice Chase Ranks

Lovcen:
This horse came a bit under the radar last year. Having made a promising debut behind Allthekingshorses and Rocky Creek on Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, he progressed to win his next start but then fell at the 2nd at Doncaster when re opposing Rocky Creek. Consequently, we didn't know much about him heading into the spring. A smooth success at Wincanton over Volador suggested he was starting to get his act together and this proved to be correct when he ran well in the Albert Bartlett at The Festival. He wasn't quite good enough to go with the horses at the front end, but stayed on admirably past beaten horses to run into 4th. His next start at Aintree was a superb effort. He matched potentially last years best staying novice hurdler Fingal Bay stride for stride all the way up the run-in, eventually having his measure by simply 'out-staying' him. His reappearance at Aintree was promising on heavy ground off top weight, which was far from ideal! Having turned the final bend travelling nicely, he found nothing off the bridle which suggested all the petrol had been used up to get himself into the race. However, his first run last year was of a similar ilk and it's feasible he needs that first run of the season to sharpen him up. The plan is to run in another hurdle race at the Open Meeting, where one of his owners sponsors the race, before heading novice chasing. I think the key to this horse is good ground, his best runs came in the spring on a sounder surface, so I would expect that to be the case again this year. His main attribute is his stamina and he could use this best to win either the RSA or the 4 Miler which are real war of attrition contests. I don't know whether he is quite top class, he probably wasn't over hurdles, but fences could be the making of him and I expect him to feature prominently in the staying novice chasers division this season. I think he could also be underrated.

Walkon Could Go Close In The Paddy Power

Walkon:
This grey was once considered to be out of the very top draw. He finished 2nd to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle before following up at Aintree in devastating style, a bit like Spirit Son's victory in 2011. However much like Spirit Son, injury struck. It was a long lay-off and whether he has quite recaptured his form from his juvenile days is debatable. His novice chase campaign last year started with a bang with an impressive win at Exeter, but he didn't follow it up all year. Alan King thought it probably flattered him all season. The geldings season finished disappointingly when he finished pulled up in the Scottish National in what was a a real stab in the dark to see if he would appreciate the stamina test. The plan was initially to target a graduation a chase for his reappearance but that appears to have been scrapped and replaced with a tilt at the Paddy Power. 2 1/2 miles is probably as short as he would like it, but he would be a live contender and there has been money for him ante-post - he can be found at 11/1 in places. The Alan King stable are in brilliant form at the moment so it's feasible to say that Walkon will put in a bold effort, bearing in mind how well he went fresh last year. He is rated 143 and second season chasers have a good record in the race too, 143 looks a fair, winnable mark. After that I don't know what the target will be, I suspect his season will be dependant on what happens to his rating after his effort in the Paddy Power. I think he has a handicap win in him somewhere.

Kumbeshwar Looks To Have A Tough Season Ahead

Kumbeshwar:
I love this horse, he reminds me of Lough Derg a bit. Like Lough Derg, he isn't the biggest in stature, but he makes up for it with his attitude. He is all heart, ever-consistent and totally admirable. He has been placed at two Cheltenham Festivals and again, like Lough Derg he runs frequently. His novice chase campaign last year was a successful one, the highlight being his 3rd place finish in the Grand Annual. The seasonal reappearance at Chepstow behind Oiseau De Nuit was solid as ever, running about up to form. He is rated 143 and Alan King thinks he is fully exposed, he will be tough to place this year, but King has stated his will go to all the big meetings and you can guarantee he will run his race. He is a swinger certainty.

Handazan: Juvenile To Follow - Handazan
The link above details information about Handazan in a previous blog. He is a new arrival from the John Oxx yard who has winning form on soft ground. The ground at Aintree was really testing the other day and he ground it out well, the 2nd For Two is rated very highly by Paul Nicholls and I think it was a high quality contest. The fact he handles soft ground was a bonus that day and his jumping improved from his debut at Chepstow where is was a bit scratchy. It wasn't foot perfect, but it was a vast improvement and he appears to be improving all the time, he can be found at 20/1 ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle. I think he is still an unknown quantity, he could be anything. I know Alan King really likes him and he is showing signs of improvement, if he keeps heading the right way he could make up into a really smart hurdler this year. He is yet to be gelded though.

Olofi (Left) - You Would Hope He's Competitive  In Handicap Hurdles Again This Year

Olofi:
Olofi started last year really well when chasing home Brampour in the Greatwood hurdle at the Open Meeting off a mark of 130. He rose to 136 after that run and was fancied to go close once again in valuable handicap hurdles later in the year, but that never quite materialised. He was probably a bit unlucky when falling at Newbury on his next start, he was travelling well when he crashed out two from home. A much better effort when 5th in the Betfair Hurdle on his return to Newbury was just what the doctor ordered, but he then disappointed on his next outing at the Festival in the County Hurdle. It's possible his long season may have taken its toll by the time Cheltenham came around in March. The handicapper has maintained his rating at 136 and I'm starting to wonder if he is well handicapped. However, he is a 6 going on 7 year old so there may still be improvement to come. Also, with age he may require a step-up in trip. This grey is definitely one for the notebook, he should be competitive again this year.

Arabian Heights:
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard and was rated as high as 85 on the flat. Has had one run for current connections when finishing down the field on the flat at Newmarket in May this year. He is only a 3 year old so hopefully there will be more to come in the future, it will be interesting to see where he stands in the juvenile pecking order at Barbury Castle this season.

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@JoshRWDown