The Open Meeting Exclusive - Sunday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll still be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham on Sunday to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

1:10 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
Selection - Captain Conan

Captain Conan - Expected To Make It To The Top Of The Novice Chasing Ranks This Year

Nicky Henderson has been very public in saying how he adores this horse. His novice hurdle campaign was ultimately a successful one, a placed finished at Aintree followed a debut victory in the Tolworth at Sandown in January. The Aintree run behind his stable mate Darlan is solid form, more so than his Tolworth win where he beat Colour Squadron. Whatever Captain Conan did last year was a bonus because he has always been thought of as a chaser. I hear he has been schooling well at home and a stiff 2 miles should suit, I have a niggling doubt that he will want further in time though, he may lack that killer turn of foot over 2 miles. However, I don't think that will be a problem here, there isn't much pace in this race. Sire Du Grugy is the only horse that may have the pace to do Capatain Conan for toe, he is a genuine 2 miler but I wouldn't say he has a killer turn of foot. He had cracking handicap hurdle form last year, notably when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle. He has the scope to make up into a really nice chaser and measured his fences accurately on his debut at Kempton. I worry he is best going right handed. Third Intention would prefer further in my opinion, although he was caught up the run-in here last month. That wasn't the first time he has been caught when clear after the last, Houblon Des Obeaux wore him down at Haydock two years ago, personally I would stick a pair of blinkers on him. I think he is a very frustrating horse to follow, the consistency is there, which I like, but he looks hard to win with and that puts me off. He jumped well on his debut, maybe with too much zest which may have cost him later in the race, but he stays 2 1/2 and I don't think he likes being alone in front. Not for me I'm afraid! Rebel Rebellion ground it out on his chasing debut at Exeter. I thought he had a bit of an ungamely action and didn't look a natural. He jumped well from the front and was barely headed as he stayed on best to get the better of the Bold Henry. However that horse failed to frank the form on Wednesday and he looked like he would need further than 2 miles to me, he ran over 2 3/4 whilst with Charlie Mann, he also has to carry a penalty which won't help. He looks up against it here but he may do ok bearing in mind he will jump well from the front, I fear he will give the better horses a toe into the race, the strong pace he may set will suit horses in behind down to the ground. His Excellency wore down Third Intention to win here last month, this is a much tougher race and looks to have each-way claims at best. I will have to assess the market nearer the time, but I think Sire De Grugy could go off a decent price if the bookmakers get sucked into the Captain Conan hype.

2:50 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Hurdle
Selection - Darlan

Darlan - Champion Hurdle The Target And Horses Of That Mould Have Good Record In The Race, No Value In His Price Though

Darlan is being trained for a crack at the Champion Hurdle this year and Nicky Henderson is pleased with how he has matured over the summer, he looks a really promising sort. Carrying top weight is always a concern, but horses carrying large weights have a good record in this race and have gone on to progress into Champion Hurdle horses. Examples are: Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Brampour last year (carried 11-11 without Harry Derham's claim). It would be fair to say that Darlan fits that mould. I think he is the best horse in the race, will appreciate a strongly ran 2 miles and has a great chance, I have got 5/1 but 3/1 or 5/2 is a ridiculous price, like Grands Crus it represents no value! Cash And Go is a grade 1 winner and had strong form when with Edward O'Grady in Ireland. His transfer to Nicky Henderson's yard is interesting and he looks open to improvement off a mark of 141, however he will have to improve a lot to get the better of Darlan on all given novice hurdle form last year. He receives 10lb off his stable mate here, I personally don't think that's enough. He beat Dylan Ross by only half a length at Leopardstown and Dylan Ross was well down the field in the Supreme Novice, behind Darlan. Domination is the unexposed horse in the race who looks to be on a steep upward curve. His second to Baily Green by a nose over hurdles at Killarney was a decent effort, the winner has gone on to rack up a 5 timer over fences. Beaten a nose by a horse now rated 145 over fences and he runs here off 136, he could be well in on that form. I'm not a huge It's A Gimme fan, but I expect him to run well here on the back of his 2nd at Ascot 2 weeks ago, but Mcmanus has never won this race with his 2nd string and I am confident McCoy will side with the first string Darlan. Moon Dice has had a show of confidence from his trainer during the week. He runs off a pound lower here than he did last year when he was 4th, I think the handicapper still has him in his grasp. This is also a second thought after a disappointing start to his novice chase campaign earlier in the year which is a negative in my eyes. Prospect Wells will have the race run to suit and I think is a solid each way bet, I worry this may come to quick for him after last weeks ding dong battle with Zarkandar. Bothy and Olofi have run admirably in big handicaps, I love their consistency, but I feel the handicapper has them. I don't fancy Kazlian because I don't like backing horses who ran in the Fred Winter in this race, I don't think their quite classy enough otherwise they would have run in the Triumph. The same could be argued for Vendor, however Alan King rates him on a similar level to his top juveniles last year Grumeti and Balder Succes. He could be potentially well handicapped but he pulled very hard at Aintree last month and I wonder whether he would be better suited by a smaller field. Dark Lover won easily in a conditional jockeys handicap here last month, he is obviously on the upgrade but he will have to improve again to win here. Ryan Mahon takes 3lb off which assists and I think he has each way claims. Glam Gerry is my each way bet at a price. 33/1 looks a bit big for me considering he was placed behind Salut Flo at the Festival last year, he won the flat race when Go Native made his comeback and I feel he may stay on into a place.

3:25 - 2 Miles 5 Furlongs. Hyde Novices Hurdle
Selection - Village Vic

Village Vic (Black Sleeves) - Ticks All The Boxes

In my opinion, the form from the October equivalent of this race will stack up well come the spring. Ante-post Neptune Hurdle favourite The New One stayed on strongly to to get the better of Village Vic by 3 lengths, the third, the useful Thomas Crapper, was 21 lengths further behind! Phillip Hobbs rates this gelding very highly, his bumper campaign tailed off a bit last year after a cracking effort to come within a nose of the classy Shutthefrontdoor in February. However, his trainer has admitted he should have put him away after that run and not gone to Cheltenham and Punchestown in he spring. The run last month suggested he has overcome those poor efforts and is back on track, that piece of course form may stand him in good stead here against less experienced horses. He is the safe bet in the race and looks a solid contender. Fox Run had a large reputation in the Point To Point field and made a slick debut success at Worcester for his new stable. He showed good pace to quicken away from the consistent Chargen, it was a really taking performance. You're taking a punt on his untapped potential but he could be anything. Wingtips is my Under The Radar Juvenile for the season, he ran well to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and followed it up with a solid 3rd in the Punchestown equivalent. He was given a bad ride on his seasonal reappearance when 2/9 fav at Fairyhouse earlier in the month, it will have sharpened him up for this though. He has a chance if he can repeat his Triumph Hurdle form. I Shot The Sheriff, apart from being fantastically named (for you Bob Marley fans out there!), showed a smart turn of foot when winning at Wetherby on his hurdling debut and looks to have improved for the summer. He was quite a weak bumper horse last year and he has also moved to David Pipe's stable during the off season. I wouldn't put him out of it on the back of that win, he could be a horse at a price that may warrant some respect. According To Trev won the 3 mile novice hurdle here last month, he looked slow and may get outpaced here when stepping back in trip. Also the race looked poor and he has to carry a penalty, not a lot in his favour in my opinion. Bondage is another horse who won here last month in a 2 1/2 handicap hurdle, McCoy gave it a great ride that day but will be deserting him for the JP McManus owned Dursey Sound here. He also carries a penalty and is likely to get out classed. The fore mentioned Dursey Sound will have the champion jockey on board, his form isn't the strongest and will need to improve to win here but he could be anything.

My selections for the day:
1:10 - Captain Conan
1:45 - Malt Master, Well Sharp, Close House (Undecided)
2:20 - Sprinter Sacre
2:50 - Darlan
3:25 - Village Vic
4:00 - Fascino Rustico

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

Paddy Power Exclusive - Saturday Selections

Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham tomorrow to blog!! Here are a few ideas!

12:45 -2 Miles. JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial
Selection - Vasco Du Ronceray

Vasco Du Ronceray - I'm Confident He Can Build On His Ultra Impressive Hereford Victory

As always this race has strong representatives from the big stables. Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals with with Hinterland and Sam Winner, this year he saddles Far West who attempts to extend the stables winning streak. Far West swept aside subsequent Aintree winner Handazan by 12 lengths at Chepstow last month and the latter is very highly rated by his handler Alan King. He jumped slickly and quickened nicely in the soft ground, but coincidentally that's my main fear as he has never raced on anything other than soft. His action would suggest that he prefers a bit of dig in the ground. That is enough to sway me towards the Nicky Henderson trained Vasco Du Ronceray, although I don't think there is much between them. I couldn't believe how easy he won at Hereford earlier this month, it may not have been much of a race but his 32 length win couldn't have been more impressive. He jumped, travelled and quickened effortlessly, it was a really classy performance. It will be interesting to see how he ranks in The Seven Barrows juvenile ranks that is notoriously strong year to year. I don't think anything else will be good enough to be honest. Tom George's Roc D'Apsis is unraced and could be anything, he showed how well he handles juveniles last year with Baby Mix.  Dovils Date is also an unknown quantity, his win at Musselburgh was taking, but Cheltenham and Musselburgh are poles apart. McVicar has form in the book and is highly rated, but will struggle with a double penalty.

1:20 - 3 Miles. Rewards4racing Novice Chase
Selection - Sire Collonges

Sire Collonges (Left) and Sea Of Thunder (Right) Re-oppose  After Their Tussle Here Last Month

Much like the October equivalent of this race, I am finding it difficult to find something to oppose Sire Collonges. He looked smart here last month and looked to have all the makings of a novice chaser who can go to the top this season. Making his seasonal reappearance, he jumped and travelled like a class horse and apart from Ruby Walsh's minor balance issue between the last two fences, he won well. Paul Nicholls thinks he will improve for that run and if he's proven to be correct, you would expect this grey to go very very close here. I fancy him strongly. Sea Of Thunder went off a short-priced favourite for that race last month and was beaten fair and square by Sire Collonges who is expected to improve for the run, this horse was probably very forward for the race and he will have to improve past the grey to reverse the form. He is remembered for his fall at the last when clear in a novice hurdle here last year, I personally don't think that form is all that strong, the word overrated is to the forefront of my mind. Our Father is an interesting recruit to chasing this year, he was a talking horse over hurdles and has always looked like a chaser. He has plenty of scope and I expect him to be better for a fence, however I don't think he has the class of Sire Collonges and his one run at Cheltenham was a disappointing one. Sire Collonges main threat could come from across the Irish Sea in the form of Sraid Padraig. Tony Martin wouldn't be bringing him here for no reason and I imagine he wants to find out how good he is. This lightly raced 6 year old has solid Point-To-Point form behind Rocky Creek and ran respectively to finish 6th in the Champion Point-To-Point bumper at Fairyhouse, whose roll of honour includes Simonsig and Last Instalment. He was only beaten 10 lengths that day and he more recently made a taking chasing debut at Limerick, staying on well after the last to take the 2 1/2 mile contest by 7 lengths. He was extending at the finish line and I expect the extra 1/2 mile here will suit. It will be interesting to see how the market shapes up. I think Sire Collonges will be short, shorter than 6/4 is a no go area but anything 6/4 or bigger is a decent price. I think he's as close as you will get to bombproof across the 3 day meeting....................apart from Sprinter Sacre of course!

1:55 - 3 Miles 3 Furlongs. Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase
Selection - Bradley

Bradley - The Extra 3 Furlongs He Will Encounter Should Suit

I can't stress how sweet I am on Bradley, I think he stands an outstanding chance! His latest run here last month was very promising and should hopefully set him up perfectly for this race. The 3 mile trip was probably a bit sharp, he wasn't massively outpaced but always seemed to be niggled from half-way down the back straight. Awkward leaps at the 3rd and 2nd last didn't help his chances, but he was gaining on the leaders towards the finish. Paddy Brennan actually stopped riding before the line, beaten 6 lengths actually reads beaten 3 or 4 lengths. I think he's fairly treated at the weights off a mark of 133 and I expect him to improve for his run last month, the extra 3 furlongs should also be to his advantage too. He is a horse I have followed for a while and although he has a lot in his favour here, but I worry he finds it difficult to get his head in front. Galaxy Rock is a horse that tends to have one race a year which he's lined up for, it appears it's a bit of a bonus if he runs into a place in his other efforts. He won this race last year off 135 and bids to retain off 141, I worry that is a bit high and I think 'his day' was last time out. Harry The Viking put in a cracking effort to be runner-up here in the 4 miler at the Festival, he has a mark of 142 and is open to improvement. He was over the top in the Scottish National so put a line through that run, with course form under his belt and with another years maturity, I fancy him to go close. Carruthers, Fruity O'Rooney, Chicago Grey and Teaforthree are all paying the price for their efforts in high profile races last year and are surely too highly weighted to win here. I think there are better handicapped horses in the race and it's likely this race is being used as a stepping stone to the Nationals later in the season. Master Overseer was a gallant winner of the Midlands National in March and has subsequently been raised 7lb, off 133 there is a chance this lightly raced 9 year old could still be improving. Fredo has run some admirable races here, particularly at the Festival. I fancy him to do the same without making the shake-up.

2:35 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Paddy Power Gold Cup
Selection - Grands Crus

Grands Crus - Potentially The Best Handicapped Horse In The Race

There isn't a lot that I can say which hasn't been said already about Grands Crus, I'd imagine you are sick of people tipping this headstrong grey! Potentially the best handicapped horse in the race off 157, I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles is ideal. He travels and jumps superbly and the a strong run race it will suit. I'm on at 6's and am sitting pretty with the 2/1 or 9/4 around now. It's a ridiculous price and there are horses which represent better value to me. Another horse there isn't a lot I can say that hasn't already been said is Hunt Ball. The fairytale story of last season, he will have to improve again to win this. How much improvement he has left in him is debatable. The Aintree form isn't the strongest and his win at Cheltenham was probably in the weakest race at the Festival. You can't take those away from him, but I think he may be found wanting a bit here. Walkon fits all the trends. Rating band is roughly 140-147, he is rated 143. 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 7, Walkon is a 7 year old. Last 5 winners all carried less than 11 stone, Walkon carries 10-6. 4 of the last 5 winners were second season chasers, Walkon is a second season chaser. He is also best when mad fresh and this is his seasonal reappearance/ The stats don't lie and he should go close, the King stable has also been in good form recently which is a bonus. 8/1 is a bit skimpy for me bearing in mind he is up against two potential Gold Cup horses in the form of Grands Crus and Hunt Ball. He is probably a notch or two below them and I would be looking for 10/1 to be interested. Nadiya De La Vega is looking to follow up after her victory here last month and I think she has a squeak. Similar to Walkon, she fits most of the trends but she isn't the most trustworthy and has been inconsistent in the past. Putting two runs together hasn't been her forte so far in her career, consequently she's not for me. Al Ferof was a late entry into the race by the champion trainer, I don't think they quite know what to do with this grey. His optimum trip is unknown and I fear this race wasn't originally the plan which I don't like. I also think he isn't the best handicapped horse,  159 looks high enough and I think he will struggle off that mark. On the plus side, he likes Cheltenham and he appeared to want further than 2 miles last year. Backing Divers is a risk, he's very inconsistent. I don't think Michael Flips is quite good enough to win a race like this, his form suggests he is always in contention, but rarely winning the race. Consequently, I think he will get found out here. This race is not often won by a horse who has been on the go in the summer such as The Disengager. Quantitativeeasing and Poquelin have brilliant Cheltenham records and have been placed in this race in the past. They look high enough in the handicap but may run into a place. Triolo D'Alene was fancied for the race Hunt Ball won at the Festival but flopped, I didn't think he liked the hustle and bustle of a major handicap and that puts me off here.

My selections for the day:
12:45 - Vasco Du Ronceray
1:20 - Sire Collonges
1:55 - Bradley
2:35 - Grands Crus
3:05 - Knight Pass, Star Neuville (Undecided)
3:40 - Tanerko Emery (If It Runs)

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown

The Open Meeting Exclusive - Friday Selections

1:15 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay

Dynaste - Looks The best Alternative To Fingal Bay

This looks a really hot race, you will see many of these come the Festival in March. I have sided with Fingal Bay (Fingal Bay - 10 To Follow) because I feel he is the best horse in the race, he has been described by Phillip Hobbs as 'Phenomenal'. His chasing debut victory at Chepstow was easy enough without being flashy, but he's not that type of horse, he does what is required but nothing more. Hobbs has been public in saying he shows nothing at home but saves his best for the track. I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles will be absolutely perfect and with some chasing experience in the locker, I expect him to win. It cannot be forgotten he is the only horse to beat Simonsig under rules, and although the grey had excuses, I thought he beat him pretty fair and square. In terms of betting, if he's anything shorter than even money I will be staying away, there's too many other really talented horses in the field for him to justify that price in my opinion. If even money about Fingal Bay fails to materialise, Dynaste is my second preference (Dynaste - Novice Chase Insight). The grey was rated 161 over hurdles and David Pipe has said he's been schooling well at home. He has course form under his belt when he was 2nd in the Cleeve Hurdle last year and 2nd to Aegean Dawn at this meeting 2 years ago. In between those efforts he gave Big Bucks a scare at Ascot in the Longwalk Hurdle. Unioniste won on his British debut for Paul Nicholls at Aintree 3 weeks ago, he receives a 4 year olds weight allowance here. This is a big step up in class and he will need to build on that performance, but as we know the French breds tend to peak at a younger age and a Paul Nicholls novice chaser is always respected. In conclusion, I think Fingal Bay will win but in terms of which horse I will be backing, it's very dependent on price.

1:50 - 2 Miles. Paddypower.com Handicap Chase
Selection - Free World E/W

Free World Will Appreciate The Better Ground

I know this is a bit of a random one, but I think the race looks very open and I am struggling to find a winner. Owned by Clive Smith, Free World was rated as highly as 153 over fences when trained in England by Paul Nicholls. Transferred to Ireland in the summer of 2011, his handicap mark has steadily been falling to the 134 he finds himself off here. His form figures don't read too well, but I think he is a good ground horse who doesn't like it worse than good to soft. I don't really understand why he went to Ireland where the ground is always worse, but back on decent ground in last years Grand Annual he was running a much better race until coming down 4 out. I thought he was travelling pretty well and was just starting to make his move when he met the 4th last all wrong, he was 25/1 that day and I fancy you may get a decent price here. I think he is an ok each way bet when I feel many of his rivals have question marks over their heads. Kid Cassidy needs to learn to settle He has had a hard life and it shows because he looks like a worrier whose not keen on hustle and bustle, consequently he's kept out of the way at the rear of the field. He is obviously immensely talented, but looks difficult to win with and I can't be having him. The market will be telling of his chance. Astracad could potentially be an improver this year after a decent novice chase campaign last year. He was down the field in the Grand Annual but ran ok in the Aintree equivalent the following month. He ran off 145 in those two races and on the back of the Aintree run he has a squeak if he's improved for the summer, his consistency is admirable. However, the Aintree race was much weaker than the Grand Annual and 145 does look harsh. Consigliere has a poor first time out record and still looks plenty high enough in the handicap.

2:25 - 2 Miles. Sharp Novices Hurdle
Selection - Dodging Bullets

Dodging Bullets (Green Sleeves) - He Has Experience To Fall Back On

Dodging Bullets got his career on track when losing his maiden tag at Cheltenham last month. Although he ran in snatches, he was well on top at the end and will appreciate a faster run race. The run will have brought him on and was a nice starting point to follow on from a successful juvenile campaign last year, it should have put him spot on for this race. He was travelling very strongly in the Triumph as they turned for home but maybe didn't quite stay up the hill, although he was only beat 4 lengths. I would say he ranked highly as a juvenile last year and retaining his novice status this year is a huge plus. He has the experience that some of his rivals may lack in this race and I expect him to capitalise on it. Whether he's more talented than his rivals is unknown, the beauty of the race is they are all unexposed, but he will have more street sense, I expect him to use this to his advantage. Court Minstrel won well at Cheltenham last month quickening nicely to score by 4 lengths. He proved he was a smart bumper horse last year, 9 lengths separated him and My Tent Or Yours in the Grade 2 contest at Aintree and there may not much between them again here. I see no reason why he can't make the step up here but I wonder if that was 'his day' last month. Previous winners of the maiden hurdle he won last month include: Court In Session, King Of The Night and The Jigsaw Man. It would be fair to say that none of those have progressed to be top class. When you compare Court Minstrel to Dodging Bullets, I feel he may be a notch below him. However, in terms of betting, if 3/1 or bigger materialises about Court Minstrel I feel he is worth the punt to make the step up in class. Tominator was impressive last time out and ran well in the Ces, but I feel he may need further than 2 miles.

My selections for the day:
1:15 - Fingal Bay
1:50 - Free World E/W
2:25 - Dodging Bullets
3:00 - Deutschland
3:35 - Titan De Sarti
4:05 - Pentiffic

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown

10/11/2012 Super Saturday Selections

Wincanton:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - Mr Mole 1/3 N/B

I think this horse should be able to defy his 6 pound penalty. Although I'm not going anywhere near him at that price. This race does look quite open. I don't know much of the opposition, consequently I would be looking for horses with the top trainers to provide the biggest threat. The in form Alan King saddles Jojabean, his form is ok but nothing special. Another in form trainer is Colin Tizzard, he runs Kings Lad who is a course winner and has come up against some nice types. He looks a better bet than Jojabean and the newcomer from the Hobbs stable Kap Gun.

Tante Sissi (Yellow Cap) -  She Recieves Weight And Should Go Close If She's Improved 

1:40 - Mares Handicap Hurdle

Selection - Tante Sissi 4/1
I have backed Tante Sissi at 5/1. Alan King has stated in his 'Weekender' column that this mare is one he's really looking forward to this weekend. She was workmanlike in victory at Newbury on 'Greatwood' day in a Mares Hurdle when she had Miss Milborne behind, who she has a 2lb pull at the weights with today. That was probably her season done there and then and I think her at Cheltenham in April  where she ran below par was 1 to many. The King stable are in good form and she is only 5 so I hope she will have improved over the summer. Violin Davies sets the standard and is probably the most likely winner on the back of her success over Kentford Grey Lady at Ascot, but I think she will struggle to concede 8 lb to my horse. A threat could be the unexposed Lucy Wadham trained All Annalena, she's been on the go on the flat during the summer so she should be fit for this. Her form doesn't jump out at you but I think she could improve as a second season hurdler this year.

2:15 - Rising Stars Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night 6/1
You readers will know I fancied him for the 2 1/2 novice chase won by Carlito Brigante at Cheltenham last month, he jumped nicely albeit a bit right handed. Consequently I think going right handed today will assist him, also I can't help but feel Noel Fehily wasn't all that serious with him and never quite put the gun to his head. Hopefully, he can build on that performance and be a serious contender in this contest. The better the ground, the better he goes so hopefully the rain stays away, although it appears it's going to rain through the night in Wincanton. However, I will take the punt at the prices. 6/1 is better value to me than 7/4 or 2/1 about Poungach, backing Paul Nicholls novice chasers isn't the worst idea because you can almost guarantee they will jump superbly. Although this horse didn't get very far on his debut, it was a bit unlucky and he is obviously fancied to go well here. Based on hurdles form he and King Of The Night, rated 155 and 157 respectively, should have the race between them. Aegean Dawn and Court In Motion are very good horses and it's brilliant to have them back from injury, although I'm not a man to who likes backing horses coming from a lay off, I think their best watched. Houblon Des Obeaux was quite impressive on his chase debut at Worcester where he jumped and travelled well, that was 3 miles and all his form over hurdles is at 3 miles too, I think he may get outpaced today on a flat track over a trip on that is on the sharp side.

Zarkandar (Centre)

2:50 - Elite Hurdle
Selection - Balder Succes 3/1
Balder Succes just strikes me as a real improver this year. He may not be the best horse in the race and he will have to improve to compete here, but I'm optimistic he has. The trip and ground should be fine although he would probably prefer a bit more dig in the ground, but the rain is due to arrive. In relation to Zarkandar, I think he's the most likely winner. He is still a bit of an unknown quantity and Paul Nicholls has had a clear run with him this autumn, consequently he thinks he has him right this year. On all given form, he should laugh at these. However, the 2 mile rip is probably slightly shorter than ideal. He was staying on in the Champion Hurdle having been done for a bit of toe coming down the hill, I worry this may happen again tomorrow on a flat track. He has to concede a lot of weight today, this worries me when he's against horses who are on the upgrade. If he gets bigger than 3/1 than I think I may be changing my mind on my selection though, he deserves to be shorter and at least favourite in my opinion. Daryl Jacob retains a partnership that has been relatively successful while Ruby sides with Prospect Wells, who may also prefer an extra half mile but it will be interesting to see how he has improved over the summer. I don't think he would have to improve that much to be close to Zarkandar considering he receives 17lbs off him today, his novice hurdle form was pretty good but I worry he may get outpaced like his stable mate. I don't believe Local Hero or any of the rest are good enough, it's between the above 3 and at the current prices, I will side with the Alan King horse.

Diamond Harry - I'm Praying It's A Going Day!

3:25 - Badger Ales Trophy
Selection - Diamond Harry 7/1
I wouldn't walk into many of these to be honest. Why they can't win: Golden Chieftain is going to struggle after his 15lb rise from Worcester, surely Tizzard has messed up by running him in that race? He would be a shoe in off 127, although I think he may need a stiff track ideally. I see no reason why Zarrafakt can't win. Emma Lavelle has just started to hit form and this horse was a solid handicap chaser last term. His run at the Festival was disappointing though, I fear that a mark of 142 may be a tad too high. The Package has had support in the market and goes well fresh, I'm worried he may get swept off his feet round this flat track, the same can be said for West End Rocker. I feel the ground will be too soft for Aimigayle. Ballyallia Man could go close if he improves for his summer excursions, he had a nice spin round Chepstow to sharpen him up last month and he could be thrown in off 10 stone. It's a bonus that Tom George is coming into form too. Michel Le Bon has been trained for this and Paul Nicholls has an unbelievable record in the contest, his solitary novice chase win has worked out well when he had Pettifour, Bench Warrent and Cannington Brook behind him that day. He has decent form and has a lot in his favour today, he ranks just behind Diamond Harry who is known to go well first time out. He is immensely talented on his day and is now back to a mark of 150, he won the Hennessy off 156. Nick Williams will have him fit and is in decent form, booking of top jocky Noel Fehily is a good sign too. If he can recapture his old form he must go well against horses he would laugh at on his day.

Horse Racing Thrills and Spills

So I just found this video on youtube and I have to admit it did make me laugh! My favourite has to be Richard Johnson belly sliding across the line at Exeter while his horse, Out The Black, was sprawled along the floor behind him. You couldn't script it!

Super Saturday Selections - 3/11/2012

What a days racing! For many the jump season proper starts tomorrow at Wetherby for the Charlie Hall, but we are spoilt with a superb card at Ascot for the United House Gold Cup playing a role which is far from supportive! The icing on the cake comes in the evening when the Breeders Cup sparks into life where the European raid looks to be strong once again!

However on a day where the quality of racing is so high, I am finding hard to get really stuck into my selections this week. This is probably due to my selections having no value in their price.

Wetherby:

12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - Overturn  Is Simonsig A Banker Or A Blowout
Many of you readers will be aware that I have been a supporter of Overturn for a long time. Those who read my blog about Simonsig being an Arkle banker will know that I believe Overturn to be Simonsigs greatest danger next March, if he transfers his hurdles form to fences of course. Therefore, I can't see him getting beat tomorrow unless he tips up. The race isn't the strongest and there should be nothing in his league. His price will be very very small, but I believe he will justify it and he's my banker of the day. May lack imagination but the return is as near a penalty kick as you're going to get. I've noticed this morning he is a non-runner, sorry to have wasted you're time!

Smad Place

2:50 - 3 Mile Hurdle
Selection - Smad Place
This was another obvious choice for me. This grey is still a young horse who had a brilliant season last year, which culminated in a 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle. That represents the best form that any of these bring to the table, more importantly he should still be on the upgrade as he is only 5. That is more that can be said about the others! Tidal Bay and Fair Along have seen better days now, although I think Tidal Bay could be the one to upset the party if he has a going day, but that's a big if! Restless Harry and Crack Away Jack simply have been proven not to be good enough and look a little way behind Smad Place. Finally, Cape Tribulation had a fantastic end to his season last year when winning at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he's going to have to improve on that to compete here. All in all, you would expect Smad Place to build on what he did last year and if he has, he will be too good for these. I think 15/8 is a stonking bet!

3:25 - Charlie Hall Chase
Selection - Planet Sound (at the prices)
If Planet Of Sound recaptures the form he showed first time out in the Hennessy last year he will go very very close. He will be carrying my money at 5/1. Whereas 5/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a ridiculous price. I looked at him earlier on in the week and umed and erred about backing him at 5/2, let alone 5/4! I didn't think 5/2 was value anyway. He should go well tomorrow and is the most likely winner, but at the prices I'm leaving him alone. Paul Nicholls rates him as his best 3 mile chaser this year, but has stated that he needs to mature to be a serious Gold Cup contender, he thinks 2014 will be the chestnuts year. Silviniaco Conti looks to have a lot in his favour. Master Of The Hall could be a danger, he has one first time out the last two years and Nicky Henderson has an astonishingly good record of bringing horses back after a break. My only worry is if he will be good enough to concede the weight. Time For Rupert could also be a danger, Paul Webber thought he never quite had him right last year but he still ran well, shown by his 5th place finish in the Gold Cup. He was 2nd in this race last year and it wouldn't be a surprise if he goes one better this year. As for the others, Midnight Chase is surely too old now and may find a horse on the upgrade such as Silviniaco Conti too strong and Wayward Prince is trained by John Parrotts wife...

Ascot

1:25 - 2 Mile 3 Furlong Beginners Chase
Selection - Hadrian's Approach
This race looks a bit of a two horse affair. I have selected Hadrian's Approach because I know Nicky Henderson has been a big fan of this horse since the day he arrived at the yard. Although he is relatively inexperienced, he has winning form around Ascot. However he was probably held when he fell 2 out on his last start at the track. I'm not too worried about his lack of jumping experience, he has already won a point to point and Barry Geraghty has said he's been sharp when schooling at home in his Atheraces blog this week. I think he was given a break after he fell last time out to allow him to mature, as he looked like a bit of a baby last year. He just shades it over Rolling Aces, who ran well at Cheltenham last month without quite getting up the hill. At the bottom of the hill he was travelling as well as any, but he couldn't quite go with the leaders. That was a hurdle and it will have sharpened him up for his chasing debut here, however he also has some chasing experience because he was a point to point winner. This race is shorter in trip by 2 furlongs than Cheltenham which may help him, but to be honest I'm really clutching at straws here because there really isn't much between him and Hadrian's Approach.

2:00 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - My Tent Or Yours
My Tent Or Yours is a very exciting novice hurdler this year and is a horse I'm very keen on. I find it interesting J P McManus has snapped him up over the summer, although I must admit I would rather have Geraghty on his back than McCoy. Geraghty was eager to stress that My Tent Or Yours was schooling well at home in his Atheraces blog, he was a good bumper horse last year and got very close to subsequent Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One at Aintree last spring. All things considered, I think he should go well. I think his biggest danger will come from Chiberta King. This resident of Andrew Balding's stable looks a very interesting recruit to the national hunt scene. He was competing in the top class staying races on the flat, against the top class horses. Rated as high as 108 on the flat, he was certainly no mug! My only worry is that these horses who were good on the flat don't always transfer their talent to hurdles immediately, they normally take some time to get their act together. Consequently, My Tent Or Yours shades it.

Ile De Re Looks To Have  Strong Claims

2:35 - 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ile De Re
I have already backed him at 4/1 and I am extremely happy! Whilst writing  he his currently 11/4 and I can only see his price contracting further. His last run at Ascot on Champions Day was relatively disappointing, but I always thought he would struggle in that company. However, I can't help but feel he wasn't given the hardest time once he was beaten and consequently the run shouldn't have taken too much out of him. Therefore I think the run should have put him bang on for this race, and off a mark of 123, he could be the best handicapped horse I have seen since Hunt Ball! 4/1 could be an absolutely massive price! I fancy him strongly. The opposition is strong though, it's a very competitive race! War Singer looks unexposed, but I am put off by how David Pipe's horses are going at the moment. I've seen a few running the odd stinker recently, although you would imagine it's the calm before the storm at the Open Meeting in 2 weeks time! I believe Raya Star to be handicapped to the hill and this is a fitness building exercise before he embarks on a novice chasing campaign, although Alan King couldn't be in better form! Changing The Guard has ran so consistently in lower class races and this step up should find him out unfortunately and I'm just not a big It's A Gimme fan. Cape Express has been raised 11 pounds in the weights since last weeks win at Aintree, he won impressively and I think he may be able to overcome the rise. He looks to be the main danger along with Claret Cloak from the Emma Lavelle yard. He brings solid form into the race when he finished within 2 lengths of smart bumper horse Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury and has also got the better of opponent War Singer in the past, whilst also being too strong for Bold Henry who recently ran very well to be a close 2nd to the smart Paul Nicholls chaser Rebel Rebellion. I think there is definitely more to come.

3:10 - United House Gold Cup
Selection - Baile Anrai e/w (If I had to have a bet)
I don't really fancy any of these to be honest. I like Baile Anrai because he is in one of my ten to follows, but I don't have much confidence. I don't like backing horses out of the handicap, especially when they're 7 pounds out! It's a bit of a sentimental bet. The opposition look to have strength in depth, but not in massive quality. I don't like Ace High because Victor Dartnell is in terrible form, I think Alfie Spinner needs further and Duke Of Lucca needs better ground. On the flip side, the ground needs to be juicier for Cannington Brook and I have doubts if Poquelin really wants 3 miles. Tullamore Dew went off the boil towards the end of last year and he will have to recapture his old form to stand a chance here, history tells us he also tends to need a run to sharpen him up. If I had to have a win bet it would be Join Together, the stable are in good form and he tends to run his best races at the beginning of the year. In terms of a win bet, he shades just over Roberto Goldback whose transfer to England is intriguing, particularly because he prefers good ground which he is more likely to get in this country.

Other horses I will be backing on the day:
Criqtonic
Brick Red
Baby Shine
Jetnova
Bog Warrior
Joncol

Owners To Follow - The McNeill Family

The McNeill Family have had their fair share of the limelight when it comes to big race successes and I think it's likely to be case again this year. Horses to take into battle this year include: Champion Hurdle contender Grumeti. High-class handicappers Kumbeshwar, Olofi and Walkon. Potentailly exciting juveniles Handazan and Arabian Heights. The 2012 Sefton Hurdle winner Lovcen is also partly owned by the McNeills. With this kind of ammunition carrying the iconic blue and white hoops silks with burgundy sleeves and cap, you would expect the silks to be gracing the winners enclosure rather frequently!

Grumeti:
Alan King has been public in saying that he thinks this horse is the best juvenile he has ever trained. Now that's a bold statement! The King of Barbury Castle has had many top class juveniles over the years, including two Triumph Hurdle winners, Penzance, subsequent Champion Hurdle Winner Katchit as well as Walkon and the sadly ill-fated Mille Chief. The geldings first season was a very good one. He came a bit out of the unknown to score at Taunton on his debut at 11/2, before being an unlucky faller when having the race at his mercy at Newbury next time out. I think he hadn't quite got over the fall on his next start at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day where he won, albeit in the stewards room. Although he had a mild injury scare, the break between then and The Festival obviously did him the world of good. His run in Triumph was a cracker. He made a bad mistake down the back and although he finished 3rd, if he had met the last on a stride instead of fiddling over it, he may have won. Revenge over his Triumph conqueror Countrywide Flame was sweet at Aintree though. In my eyes, I thought he was just about the best juvenile last year and he should have matured nicely over the summer, he could be a much improved horse this year. King stated that Grumeti had improved quite a lot for his runs on the flat in the summer, before he had gone for his summer break! In relation to the Champion Hurdle, Grumeti looks to be another competitive addition to what is looking a very competitive race on the whole - he can be found at 25/1 Ante-post. The 4 year old hurdling season is notoriously tough, but he takes his racing well and could be underrated, I wouldn't be writing him off.

Lovcen (Right) - Will Be An Interesting Recruit To The Novice Chase Ranks

Lovcen:
This horse came a bit under the radar last year. Having made a promising debut behind Allthekingshorses and Rocky Creek on Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, he progressed to win his next start but then fell at the 2nd at Doncaster when re opposing Rocky Creek. Consequently, we didn't know much about him heading into the spring. A smooth success at Wincanton over Volador suggested he was starting to get his act together and this proved to be correct when he ran well in the Albert Bartlett at The Festival. He wasn't quite good enough to go with the horses at the front end, but stayed on admirably past beaten horses to run into 4th. His next start at Aintree was a superb effort. He matched potentially last years best staying novice hurdler Fingal Bay stride for stride all the way up the run-in, eventually having his measure by simply 'out-staying' him. His reappearance at Aintree was promising on heavy ground off top weight, which was far from ideal! Having turned the final bend travelling nicely, he found nothing off the bridle which suggested all the petrol had been used up to get himself into the race. However, his first run last year was of a similar ilk and it's feasible he needs that first run of the season to sharpen him up. The plan is to run in another hurdle race at the Open Meeting, where one of his owners sponsors the race, before heading novice chasing. I think the key to this horse is good ground, his best runs came in the spring on a sounder surface, so I would expect that to be the case again this year. His main attribute is his stamina and he could use this best to win either the RSA or the 4 Miler which are real war of attrition contests. I don't know whether he is quite top class, he probably wasn't over hurdles, but fences could be the making of him and I expect him to feature prominently in the staying novice chasers division this season. I think he could also be underrated.

Walkon Could Go Close In The Paddy Power

Walkon:
This grey was once considered to be out of the very top draw. He finished 2nd to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle before following up at Aintree in devastating style, a bit like Spirit Son's victory in 2011. However much like Spirit Son, injury struck. It was a long lay-off and whether he has quite recaptured his form from his juvenile days is debatable. His novice chase campaign last year started with a bang with an impressive win at Exeter, but he didn't follow it up all year. Alan King thought it probably flattered him all season. The geldings season finished disappointingly when he finished pulled up in the Scottish National in what was a a real stab in the dark to see if he would appreciate the stamina test. The plan was initially to target a graduation a chase for his reappearance but that appears to have been scrapped and replaced with a tilt at the Paddy Power. 2 1/2 miles is probably as short as he would like it, but he would be a live contender and there has been money for him ante-post - he can be found at 11/1 in places. The Alan King stable are in brilliant form at the moment so it's feasible to say that Walkon will put in a bold effort, bearing in mind how well he went fresh last year. He is rated 143 and second season chasers have a good record in the race too, 143 looks a fair, winnable mark. After that I don't know what the target will be, I suspect his season will be dependant on what happens to his rating after his effort in the Paddy Power. I think he has a handicap win in him somewhere.

Kumbeshwar Looks To Have A Tough Season Ahead

Kumbeshwar:
I love this horse, he reminds me of Lough Derg a bit. Like Lough Derg, he isn't the biggest in stature, but he makes up for it with his attitude. He is all heart, ever-consistent and totally admirable. He has been placed at two Cheltenham Festivals and again, like Lough Derg he runs frequently. His novice chase campaign last year was a successful one, the highlight being his 3rd place finish in the Grand Annual. The seasonal reappearance at Chepstow behind Oiseau De Nuit was solid as ever, running about up to form. He is rated 143 and Alan King thinks he is fully exposed, he will be tough to place this year, but King has stated his will go to all the big meetings and you can guarantee he will run his race. He is a swinger certainty.

Handazan: Juvenile To Follow - Handazan
The link above details information about Handazan in a previous blog. He is a new arrival from the John Oxx yard who has winning form on soft ground. The ground at Aintree was really testing the other day and he ground it out well, the 2nd For Two is rated very highly by Paul Nicholls and I think it was a high quality contest. The fact he handles soft ground was a bonus that day and his jumping improved from his debut at Chepstow where is was a bit scratchy. It wasn't foot perfect, but it was a vast improvement and he appears to be improving all the time, he can be found at 20/1 ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle. I think he is still an unknown quantity, he could be anything. I know Alan King really likes him and he is showing signs of improvement, if he keeps heading the right way he could make up into a really smart hurdler this year. He is yet to be gelded though.

Olofi (Left) - You Would Hope He's Competitive  In Handicap Hurdles Again This Year

Olofi:
Olofi started last year really well when chasing home Brampour in the Greatwood hurdle at the Open Meeting off a mark of 130. He rose to 136 after that run and was fancied to go close once again in valuable handicap hurdles later in the year, but that never quite materialised. He was probably a bit unlucky when falling at Newbury on his next start, he was travelling well when he crashed out two from home. A much better effort when 5th in the Betfair Hurdle on his return to Newbury was just what the doctor ordered, but he then disappointed on his next outing at the Festival in the County Hurdle. It's possible his long season may have taken its toll by the time Cheltenham came around in March. The handicapper has maintained his rating at 136 and I'm starting to wonder if he is well handicapped. However, he is a 6 going on 7 year old so there may still be improvement to come. Also, with age he may require a step-up in trip. This grey is definitely one for the notebook, he should be competitive again this year.

Arabian Heights:
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard and was rated as high as 85 on the flat. Has had one run for current connections when finishing down the field on the flat at Newmarket in May this year. He is only a 3 year old so hopefully there will be more to come in the future, it will be interesting to see where he stands in the juvenile pecking order at Barbury Castle this season.

Any questions or comments, contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown