What was happening at Cheltenham Racecourse at roughly 4:05 on the 15th March 2012?
The answer...the David Pipe trained Salut Flo was streaking away up the famous finishing hill at Prestbury Park to a 6 length win in the 2m 5f Byrne Group handicap chase. Ridden by Tom Scudamore the 7 year old was the subject of a public gamble after David Pipe had tipped the horse as his best chance of the week - which seemed ludicrous when his stable star Grand Crus was as short at 11-8 for the RSA without the benefit of hind sight .
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Salut Flo winning the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival 2012
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However, it was in the weeks leading up to this years festival when I noticed a certain Salut Flo entered for this race at a price of 33-1. I took notice because earlier in the year the horse had been running an excellent race in the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup handicap chase over 2m 4f at Cheltenham's December meeting, the enigmatic front runner was bowling along until taking the fence at the bottom of the hill on the new course out by the roots knocking him sideways and subsequently ending any chance of victory. I found it interesting that up till then the horse had looked a likely winner but had been off the track since. I sensed a handicap snip.
Ante-post at 33-1 David Pipe persistently wouldn't confirm the horses planned race entry. Consequently, I kept my money in my pocket with talk of the horse running in hurdles and chases. In hind sight I wish I had followed my gut instinct as we all know what happened on that day in March, but I got some consolation when I backed him at 9-2.
Moving onto this season, the Paddy Power Gold Cup handicap chase over 2m 5f is the highlight of The Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November. The meeting as a whole has been a fruitful one for the Pipe family over the years with the most recent success being the ill-fated Great Endeavour's win in the Paddy Power last year.
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| Great Endeavour scrambles over the last when winning the 2011 Paddy Power Gold Cup |
Salut Flo is likely to line-up in the Paddy Power this year as it seems the next logical step from his victory over 2m 5f at last years festival, and in my view he once again has a lot in his favour. Firstly that fact he is trained at Pond House Stables by David Pipe and the record that stable possess at this meeting is a massive plus! Secondly, he is a course winner which at such an idiosyncratic track such as Cheltenham this also a massive bonus if you believe in all that horses for courses lark (however Salut Flo's victory was on the new course in March whereas the Paddy Power is on the old course).
Previous winners of the Paddy Power since 2007 have been rated between 139-147 and carried below 11 stone and have all been 7 or 8.
2011: Great Endeavour = Age: 7 Weight: 10-3 Rated: 147
2010: Little Josh = Age: 8 Weight: 10-8 Rated: 146
2009: Tranquil Sea = Age: 7 Weight: 10-13 Rated: 140
2008: Imperial Commander = Age: 7 Weight: 10-7 Rated: 139
2007: L'Antartique = Age: 7 Weight: 10-13 Rated: 146
Salut Flo's victory at the Festival has raised his rating by 11 pounds to 148, placing him just outside the rating bracket. But as you can see from the last two years the winner of this race has been near the top end of this rating bracket so I don't consider this to be a problem. He is also a 7 year old and the Paddy Power has a rating cap of around 170 I think (don't hold me to that) so he should get in with a weight below 11 stone.
Perhaps my judgement is being coloured by thinking through my heart and not my head as missing that 33-1 ante-post in March is still haunting me, but if you look at trends and the type of winner this race has produced over the years, it is hard to argue against the chance Salut Flo possesses. Depending if David Pipe is more conclusive about the horses targets this year!
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