1:30 REWARDS4RACING Handicap Chase
A tricky handicap chase to start the card.
Storming Gale will be popular after his decent effort here 2 weeks ago behind Prince Of Pirates, Donald McCains charge was out-battled and ended up losing 2nd close home but has only been raised 2lb for that promising effort. He travelled strongly and jumped well so the drop back in trip does not worry me, he needs to be held up so the booking of Timmy Murphy is also a plus, strong claims. I was impressed with
Filbert's victory at Ludlow on his chasing debut, he jumped well on the whole and appeared to want every yard of the 2 mile trip, consequently the step up to 2 1/2 miles should suit. He has run at the track twice, finishing 2nd to Bobs Worth in a bumper but worryingly his effort on Boxing Day was almost too bad to be true, this it a tough task to carry top weight on only his 2nd chasing start, 5/1 is a bit short when you weight it up.
Midnight Sail has been admirably consistent this season but has found winning difficult. His mark has risen to a career high and I think he probably wants further, particularly around this tight track, others are preferred.
Mickelson is another who will appreciate stepping back up in trip after he was touched off in a jumpers bumper at Lingfield last time out, he will appreciate the better ground but his jumping didn't convince at Newbury on his debut for new yard, although soft ground could have been an excuse. If change in scenery does the trick he has claims under the champion jockey.
Milarrow is another who has been consistent this term, he was best of the rest here behind Radjhani Express on Boxing day and followed it up with another 2nd at Wetherby. Getting his head in front has been difficult and I expect that to happen again here.
Lexicon Lad would appear to be Tom George's first string with Paddy Brennan aboard, he got stuck in the mud at Cheltenham in December but gets the good ground he requires here. He jumps well and has claims but it is the stables 2nd string who takes preference.
TRIANGULAR needs good ground like his stable mate and has struggled this winter in soft ground, he can have his own ideas but is back down to the mark when he produced his best performance at Newbury this time last year. It's possible that his excursions over the national fences at Aintree last year have cost him his confidence, but if he can reproduce his form from Newbury he has claims here. At 12/1 he looks each-way value,
Escort'men ran yesterday and is likely to come out, hopefully no others follow suit so each-way betting remains at 3 places.
Advice - Triangular 1pt EW @ 12/1 Betvictor
2:05 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle
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| Vasco Du Ronceray - Pace in the pedigree |
This race has served as a very good trail for the Triumph hurdle with 5 of the previous 13 winners following up Cheltenham the following month.
Irish Saint heads the market after his gallant effort in defeat behind Triumph hurdle favourite Rolling Star at Cheltenham, that followed his impressive win here over course and distance in December. He jumps well but looks like wanting further in time and requires an end to end gallop to see him at his best. It looks unlikely he will get that, he may have to make it like he did at Cheltenham, that gave Rolling Star a tow that day and it's likely the same will happen again here. Whether he will have the turn of foot to quicken is a worry around a tight track like Kempton.
VASCO DU RONCERAY takes preference on a return to a sounder surface. Far West had his measure at Cheltenham in November but that was on soft ground which wouldn't have suited Nicky Hendersons charge, he was well clear of the 3rd. His jumping was a bit fiddly at Doncaster next time out but he travelled strongly through the race, although a tad keen and was found wanting when push came to shove, he probably hit the front too soon. He has pace to burn, pace is in his pedigree and I think a tighter track like Kempton will suit, 7/2 looks fair.
L'Unique has been suited by flat tracks at Kempton and Aintree and has done nothing wrong. The form of her wins hasn't been franked (2nd at Aintree turned over at 1/6) and whether she has the credentials to win this I'm not sure. Alan King said after her win over course and distance last time out that he would bring her here to see if she's good enough as he doesn't have an obvious Triumph hurdle horse this year. That doesn't fill me with confidence. I saw
Chris Pea Green win a junior bumper at Huntingdon, although he pulled well clear it was an awful race with nothing coming out of it since. I have been surprised by how he has progressed and I never thought he would be a 140 rated hurdler, but you can't knock what he has done. He trounced some talented juveniles at Huntingdon last time out and has earn't another step up in class, whether he is good enough is unknown. I want to think not but he's proven me wrong already this season, he has to give weight away which is going to be tough and 5/1 is a bit short.
Courtesy Call was a decent stayer on the flat and makes his debut for Nicky Henderson here, a lack of jumping experience is a worry and I fear he will want further now switched to hurdles, he was 2nd in the Cesarewitch trial over 2m 2f on the flat.
Fosters Road and
Shadarpour have no form to suggest they will troubling the market leaders.
Advice - Vasco Du Ronceray 2pt Win @ 100/30 Stan James/Boylesports
3:50 Racing Plus Chase
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| Duke Of Lucca - Has been crying out for 3 miles on a flat track |
It would almost be rude not to start with
Nacarat, twice winner and twice placed he has an excellent record in the race. He returns to his favourite hunting ground with the handicapper giving him a chance off a mark of 155 but he hasn't appeared to be at his best so far this term, you would be banking on a return to Kempton reigniting the fire, 8/1 looks fair but he's likely to be on the downgrade at the age of 12, last year may have been his year.
What A Friend is making his seasonal reappearance with another crack at the national the long term plan I would imagine, Paul Nicholls' horses tend to need a run so I am happy to steer clear on this occasion.
Roberto Goldback is gradually working down to the mark of 150 where he sluiced up at Ascot in November. He runs here off 154 and with the national weights out recently he can run here without worrying about his handicap mark. A return to better ground should suit and I think he has strong each way claims, he won't want to be bottomed before the national though.
Rolling Aces was impressive at Wincanton on Boxing day, easily putting today's rival Opening Batsmen in his place. That hasn't gone unnoticed by the handicapper has raised him a further 11lb to 149. That looks steep enough for a novice taking on some seasoned chasers. Paul Nicholls believes that Kempton will suit the gelding but I feel he has enough on his plate to be a 7/2 shot. The aforementioned
Opening Batsmen was no match for Rolling Aces at Wincanton but did win back at the west country venue last time out, he will have to improve again to be competitive here, others preferred.
Hectors Choice has been hopelessly out of form this year, a return to hurdles didn't work the trick and he is easily overlooked.
Quantitativeeasing is another who has ran poorly this year, he needs better ground so can be excused those efforts. I've always thought he is best around Cheltenham so going right-handed on flat track today is unlikely to suit, he would be of more interest next month if the ground continues to dry.
Quinz has been dropped 144, the mark he won this off 2 years ago. If he can reproduce that level of form he is in with a chance, Richard Johnson takes the ride which would suggest he is the stables first string.
Wyck Hill is a rapidly improving chaser whose beating of Katenko at Ascot has been franked emphatically after the formers resounding victories at Sandown and Cheltenham. I was impressed how he jumped and travelled at Ascot and it's likely he is a little way ahead of his 142 rating, strong claims but 3/1 is lacking value to me.
Summery Justice runs from out of the handicap which is never ideal and looks held off this mark.
Same Difference has done well this season when allowed to dominate, notably when running away with a novice chase at Leicester last month, this is a tough ask for a novice and he won't get it all his own way with Nacarat and Mister Hyde liking to race prominently.
Mister Hyde was a good winner here in December and gets in here off a featherweight, whether he has a race of this calibre in him is unlikely in my opinion and I expect him to be outclassed.
DUKE OF LUCCA just edges preference on a return to his favoured better ground after an 84 lay off. He should be freshened up and Tom O'Brien retains the partnership that saw him go well fresh behind Roberto Goldback in November. His mark of 140 is the lowest it's ever been over fences and he's been crying out for 3 miles around a flat track, he has that touch of class and at 12/1 I feel he is each way value.
Advice - Duke Of Lucca 1.5pt EW @12/1Betfred
Cheers,
Josh
