However on a day where the quality of racing is so high, I am finding hard to get really stuck into my selections this week. This is probably due to my selections having no value in their price.
Wetherby:
12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - Overturn Is Simonsig A Banker Or A Blowout
Many of you readers will be aware that I have been a supporter of Overturn for a long time. Those who read my blog about Simonsig being an Arkle banker will know that I believe Overturn to be Simonsigs greatest danger next March, if he transfers his hurdles form to fences of course. Therefore, I can't see him getting beat tomorrow unless he tips up. The race isn't the strongest and there should be nothing in his league. His price will be very very small, but I believe he will justify it and he's my banker of the day. May lack imagination but the return is as near a penalty kick as you're going to get. I've noticed this morning he is a non-runner, sorry to have wasted you're time!
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| Smad Place |
Selection - Smad Place
This was another obvious choice for me. This grey is still a young horse who had a brilliant season last year, which culminated in a 3rd place finish in the World Hurdle. That represents the best form that any of these bring to the table, more importantly he should still be on the upgrade as he is only 5. That is more that can be said about the others! Tidal Bay and Fair Along have seen better days now, although I think Tidal Bay could be the one to upset the party if he has a going day, but that's a big if! Restless Harry and Crack Away Jack simply have been proven not to be good enough and look a little way behind Smad Place. Finally, Cape Tribulation had a fantastic end to his season last year when winning at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he's going to have to improve on that to compete here. All in all, you would expect Smad Place to build on what he did last year and if he has, he will be too good for these. I think 15/8 is a stonking bet!
3:25 - Charlie Hall Chase
Selection - Planet Sound (at the prices)
If Planet Of Sound recaptures the form he showed first time out in the Hennessy last year he will go very very close. He will be carrying my money at 5/1. Whereas 5/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a ridiculous price. I looked at him earlier on in the week and umed and erred about backing him at 5/2, let alone 5/4! I didn't think 5/2 was value anyway. He should go well tomorrow and is the most likely winner, but at the prices I'm leaving him alone. Paul Nicholls rates him as his best 3 mile chaser this year, but has stated that he needs to mature to be a serious Gold Cup contender, he thinks 2014 will be the chestnuts year. Silviniaco Conti looks to have a lot in his favour. Master Of The Hall could be a danger, he has one first time out the last two years and Nicky Henderson has an astonishingly good record of bringing horses back after a break. My only worry is if he will be good enough to concede the weight. Time For Rupert could also be a danger, Paul Webber thought he never quite had him right last year but he still ran well, shown by his 5th place finish in the Gold Cup. He was 2nd in this race last year and it wouldn't be a surprise if he goes one better this year. As for the others, Midnight Chase is surely too old now and may find a horse on the upgrade such as Silviniaco Conti too strong and Wayward Prince is trained by John Parrotts wife...
Ascot
1:25 - 2 Mile 3 Furlong Beginners Chase
Selection - Hadrian's Approach
This race looks a bit of a two horse affair. I have selected Hadrian's Approach because I know Nicky Henderson has been a big fan of this horse since the day he arrived at the yard. Although he is relatively inexperienced, he has winning form around Ascot. However he was probably held when he fell 2 out on his last start at the track. I'm not too worried about his lack of jumping experience, he has already won a point to point and Barry Geraghty has said he's been sharp when schooling at home in his Atheraces blog this week. I think he was given a break after he fell last time out to allow him to mature, as he looked like a bit of a baby last year. He just shades it over Rolling Aces, who ran well at Cheltenham last month without quite getting up the hill. At the bottom of the hill he was travelling as well as any, but he couldn't quite go with the leaders. That was a hurdle and it will have sharpened him up for his chasing debut here, however he also has some chasing experience because he was a point to point winner. This race is shorter in trip by 2 furlongs than Cheltenham which may help him, but to be honest I'm really clutching at straws here because there really isn't much between him and Hadrian's Approach.
2:00 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - My Tent Or Yours
My Tent Or Yours is a very exciting novice hurdler this year and is a horse I'm very keen on. I find it interesting J P McManus has snapped him up over the summer, although I must admit I would rather have Geraghty on his back than McCoy. Geraghty was eager to stress that My Tent Or Yours was schooling well at home in his Atheraces blog, he was a good bumper horse last year and got very close to subsequent Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One at Aintree last spring. All things considered, I think he should go well. I think his biggest danger will come from Chiberta King. This resident of Andrew Balding's stable looks a very interesting recruit to the national hunt scene. He was competing in the top class staying races on the flat, against the top class horses. Rated as high as 108 on the flat, he was certainly no mug! My only worry is that these horses who were good on the flat don't always transfer their talent to hurdles immediately, they normally take some time to get their act together. Consequently, My Tent Or Yours shades it.
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| Ile De Re Looks To Have Strong Claims |
Selection - Ile De Re
I have already backed him at 4/1 and I am extremely happy! Whilst writing he his currently 11/4 and I can only see his price contracting further. His last run at Ascot on Champions Day was relatively disappointing, but I always thought he would struggle in that company. However, I can't help but feel he wasn't given the hardest time once he was beaten and consequently the run shouldn't have taken too much out of him. Therefore I think the run should have put him bang on for this race, and off a mark of 123, he could be the best handicapped horse I have seen since Hunt Ball! 4/1 could be an absolutely massive price! I fancy him strongly. The opposition is strong though, it's a very competitive race! War Singer looks unexposed, but I am put off by how David Pipe's horses are going at the moment. I've seen a few running the odd stinker recently, although you would imagine it's the calm before the storm at the Open Meeting in 2 weeks time! I believe Raya Star to be handicapped to the hill and this is a fitness building exercise before he embarks on a novice chasing campaign, although Alan King couldn't be in better form! Changing The Guard has ran so consistently in lower class races and this step up should find him out unfortunately and I'm just not a big It's A Gimme fan. Cape Express has been raised 11 pounds in the weights since last weeks win at Aintree, he won impressively and I think he may be able to overcome the rise. He looks to be the main danger along with Claret Cloak from the Emma Lavelle yard. He brings solid form into the race when he finished within 2 lengths of smart bumper horse Shutthefrontdoor at Newbury and has also got the better of opponent War Singer in the past, whilst also being too strong for Bold Henry who recently ran very well to be a close 2nd to the smart Paul Nicholls chaser Rebel Rebellion. I think there is definitely more to come.
3:10 - United House Gold Cup
Selection - Baile Anrai e/w (If I had to have a bet)
I don't really fancy any of these to be honest. I like Baile Anrai because he is in one of my ten to follows, but I don't have much confidence. I don't like backing horses out of the handicap, especially when they're 7 pounds out! It's a bit of a sentimental bet. The opposition look to have strength in depth, but not in massive quality. I don't like Ace High because Victor Dartnell is in terrible form, I think Alfie Spinner needs further and Duke Of Lucca needs better ground. On the flip side, the ground needs to be juicier for Cannington Brook and I have doubts if Poquelin really wants 3 miles. Tullamore Dew went off the boil towards the end of last year and he will have to recapture his old form to stand a chance here, history tells us he also tends to need a run to sharpen him up. If I had to have a win bet it would be Join Together, the stable are in good form and he tends to run his best races at the beginning of the year. In terms of a win bet, he shades just over Roberto Goldback whose transfer to England is intriguing, particularly because he prefers good ground which he is more likely to get in this country.
Other horses I will be backing on the day:
Criqtonic
Brick Red
Baby Shine
Jetnova
Bog Warrior
Joncol
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