Whilst it's difficult to make selections with entries at the 5 day stage and I`ll still be too busy enjoying myself at Cheltenham on Sunday to blog!! Here are a few ideas!
1:10 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
Selection - Captain Conan
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| Captain Conan - Expected To Make It To The Top Of The Novice Chasing Ranks This Year |
Nicky Henderson has been very public in saying how he adores this horse. His novice hurdle campaign was ultimately a successful one, a placed finished at Aintree followed a debut victory in the Tolworth at Sandown in January. The Aintree run behind his stable mate Darlan is solid form, more so than his Tolworth win where he beat Colour Squadron. Whatever
Captain Conan did last year was a bonus because he has always been thought of as a chaser. I hear he has been schooling well at home and a stiff 2 miles should suit, I have a niggling doubt that he will want further in time though, he may lack that killer turn of foot over 2 miles. However, I don't think that will be a problem here, there isn't much pace in this race.
Sire Du Grugy is the only horse that may have the pace to do Capatain Conan for toe, he is a genuine 2 miler but I wouldn't say he has a killer turn of foot. He had cracking handicap hurdle form last year, notably when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle. He has the scope to make up into a really nice chaser and measured his fences accurately on his debut at Kempton. I worry he is best going right handed.
Third Intention would prefer further in my opinion, although he was caught up the run-in here last month. That wasn't the first time he has been caught when clear after the last, Houblon Des Obeaux wore him down at Haydock two years ago, personally I would stick a pair of blinkers on him. I think he is a very frustrating horse to follow, the consistency is there, which I like, but he looks hard to win with and that puts me off. He jumped well on his debut, maybe with too much zest which may have cost him later in the race, but he stays 2 1/2 and I don't think he likes being alone in front. Not for me I'm afraid!
Rebel Rebellion ground it out on his chasing debut at Exeter. I thought he had a bit of an ungamely action and didn't look a natural. He jumped well from the front and was barely headed as he stayed on best to get the better of the Bold Henry. However that horse failed to frank the form on Wednesday and he looked like he would need further than 2 miles to me, he ran over 2 3/4 whilst with Charlie Mann, he also has to carry a penalty which won't help. He looks up against it here but he may do ok bearing in mind he will jump well from the front, I fear he will give the better horses a toe into the race, the strong pace he may set will suit horses in behind down to the ground.
His Excellency wore down Third Intention to win here last month, this is a much tougher race and looks to have each-way claims at best. I will have to assess the market nearer the time, but I think Sire De Grugy could go off a decent price if the bookmakers get sucked into the Captain Conan hype.
2:50 - 2 Miles. Racing Post Hurdle
Selection - Darlan
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| Darlan - Champion Hurdle The Target And Horses Of That Mould Have Good Record In The Race, No Value In His Price Though |
Darlan is being trained for a crack at the Champion Hurdle this year and Nicky Henderson is pleased with how he has matured over the summer, he looks a really promising sort. Carrying top weight is always a concern, but horses carrying large weights have a good record in this race and have gone on to progress into Champion Hurdle horses. Examples are: Rooster Booster, Rigmarole, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim, Menorah and Brampour last year (carried 11-11 without Harry Derham's claim). It would be fair to say that Darlan fits that mould. I think he is the best horse in the race, will appreciate a strongly ran 2 miles and has a great chance, I have got 5/1 but 3/1 or 5/2 is a ridiculous price, like Grands Crus it represents no value!
Cash And Go is a grade 1 winner and had strong form when with Edward O'Grady in Ireland. His transfer to Nicky Henderson's yard is interesting and he looks open to improvement off a mark of 141, however he will have to improve a lot to get the better of Darlan on all given novice hurdle form last year. He receives 10lb off his stable mate here, I personally don't think that's enough. He beat Dylan Ross by only half a length at Leopardstown and Dylan Ross was well down the field in the Supreme Novice, behind Darlan.
Domination is the unexposed horse in the race who looks to be on a steep upward curve. His second to Baily Green by a nose over hurdles at Killarney was a decent effort, the winner has gone on to rack up a 5 timer over fences. Beaten a nose by a horse now rated 145 over fences and he runs here off 136, he could be well in on that form. I'm not a huge
It's A Gimme fan, but I expect him to run well here on the back of his 2nd at Ascot 2 weeks ago, but Mcmanus has never won this race with his 2nd string and I am confident McCoy will side with the first string Darlan.
Moon Dice has had a show of confidence from his trainer during the week. He runs off a pound lower here than he did last year when he was 4th, I think the handicapper still has him in his grasp. This is also a second thought after a disappointing start to his novice chase campaign earlier in the year which is a negative in my eyes.
Prospect Wells will have the race run to suit and I think is a solid each way bet, I worry this may come to quick for him after last weeks ding dong battle with Zarkandar.
Bothy and
Olofi have run admirably in big handicaps, I love their consistency, but I feel the handicapper has them. I don't fancy
Kazlian because I don't like backing horses who ran in the Fred Winter in this race, I don't think their quite classy enough otherwise they would have run in the Triumph. The same could be argued for
Vendor, however Alan King rates him on a similar level to his top juveniles last year Grumeti and Balder Succes. He could be potentially well handicapped but he pulled very hard at Aintree last month and I wonder whether he would be better suited by a smaller field.
Dark Lover won easily in a conditional jockeys handicap here last month, he is obviously on the upgrade but he will have to improve again to win here. Ryan Mahon takes 3lb off which assists and I think he has each way claims.
Glam Gerry is my each way bet at a price. 33/1 looks a bit big for me considering he was placed behind Salut Flo at the Festival last year, he won the flat race when Go Native made his comeback and I feel he may stay on into a place.
3:25 - 2 Miles 5 Furlongs. Hyde Novices Hurdle
Selection - Village Vic
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| Village Vic (Black Sleeves) - Ticks All The Boxes |
In my opinion, the form from the October equivalent of this race will stack up well come the spring. Ante-post Neptune Hurdle favourite The New One stayed on strongly to to get the better of
Village Vic by 3 lengths, the third, the useful Thomas Crapper, was 21 lengths further behind! Phillip Hobbs rates this gelding very highly, his bumper campaign tailed off a bit last year after a cracking effort to come within a nose of the classy Shutthefrontdoor in February. However, his trainer has admitted he should have put him away after that run and not gone to Cheltenham and Punchestown in he spring. The run last month suggested he has overcome those poor efforts and is back on track, that piece of course form may stand him in good stead here against less experienced horses. He is the safe bet in the race and looks a solid contender.
Fox Run had a large reputation in the Point To Point field and made a slick debut success at Worcester for his new stable. He showed good pace to quicken away from the consistent Chargen, it was a really taking performance. You're taking a punt on his untapped potential but he could be anything.
Wingtips is my
Under The Radar Juvenile for the season, he ran well to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and followed it up with a solid 3rd in the Punchestown equivalent. He was given a bad ride on his seasonal reappearance when 2/9 fav at Fairyhouse earlier in the month, it will have sharpened him up for this though. He has a chance if he can repeat his Triumph Hurdle form.
I Shot The Sheriff, apart from being fantastically named (for you Bob Marley fans out there!), showed a smart turn of foot when winning at Wetherby on his hurdling debut and looks to have improved for the summer. He was quite a weak bumper horse last year and he has also moved to David Pipe's stable during the off season. I wouldn't put him out of it on the back of that win, he could be a horse at a price that may warrant some respect.
According To Trev won the 3 mile novice hurdle here last month, he looked slow and may get outpaced here when stepping back in trip. Also the race looked poor and he has to carry a penalty, not a lot in his favour in my opinion.
Bondage is another horse who won here last month in a 2 1/2 handicap hurdle, McCoy gave it a great ride that day but will be deserting him for the JP McManus owned Dursey Sound here. He also carries a penalty and is likely to get out classed. The fore mentioned
Dursey Sound will have the champion jockey on board, his form isn't the strongest and will need to improve to win here but he could be anything.
My selections for the day:
1:10 - Captain Conan
1:45 - Malt Master, Well Sharp, Close House (Undecided)
2:20 - Sprinter Sacre
2:50 - Darlan
3:25 - Village Vic
4:00 - Fascino Rustico
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