Thursday 15 November 2012

The Open Meeting Exclusive - Friday Selections

1:15 - 2 Miles 4 Furlongs. Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay

Dynaste - Looks The best Alternative To Fingal Bay
This looks a really hot race, you will see many of these come the Festival in March. I have sided with Fingal Bay (Fingal Bay - 10 To Follow) because I feel he is the best horse in the race, he has been described by Phillip Hobbs as 'Phenomenal'. His chasing debut victory at Chepstow was easy enough without being flashy, but he's not that type of horse, he does what is required but nothing more. Hobbs has been public in saying he shows nothing at home but saves his best for the track. I think a stiff 2 1/2 miles will be absolutely perfect and with some chasing experience in the locker, I expect him to win. It cannot be forgotten he is the only horse to beat Simonsig under rules, and although the grey had excuses, I thought he beat him pretty fair and square. In terms of betting, if he's anything shorter than even money I will be staying away, there's too many other really talented horses in the field for him to justify that price in my opinion. If even money about Fingal Bay fails to materialise, Dynaste is my second preference (Dynaste - Novice Chase Insight). The grey was rated 161 over hurdles and David Pipe has said he's been schooling well at home. He has course form under his belt when he was 2nd in the Cleeve Hurdle last year and 2nd to Aegean Dawn at this meeting 2 years ago. In between those efforts he gave Big Bucks a scare at Ascot in the Longwalk Hurdle. Unioniste won on his British debut for Paul Nicholls at Aintree 3 weeks ago, he receives a 4 year olds weight allowance here. This is a big step up in class and he will need to build on that performance, but as we know the French breds tend to peak at a younger age and a Paul Nicholls novice chaser is always respected. In conclusion, I think Fingal Bay will win but in terms of which horse I will be backing, it's very dependent on price.

1:50 - 2 Miles. Paddypower.com Handicap Chase
Selection - Free World E/W

Free World Will Appreciate The Better Ground
I know this is a bit of a random one, but I think the race looks very open and I am struggling to find a winner. Owned by Clive Smith, Free World was rated as highly as 153 over fences when trained in England by Paul Nicholls. Transferred to Ireland in the summer of 2011, his handicap mark has steadily been falling to the 134 he finds himself off here. His form figures don't read too well, but I think he is a good ground horse who doesn't like it worse than good to soft. I don't really understand why he went to Ireland where the ground is always worse, but back on decent ground in last years Grand Annual he was running a much better race until coming down 4 out. I thought he was travelling pretty well and was just starting to make his move when he met the 4th last all wrong, he was 25/1 that day and I fancy you may get a decent price here. I think he is an ok each way bet when I feel many of his rivals have question marks over their heads. Kid Cassidy needs to learn to settle He has had a hard life and it shows because he looks like a worrier whose not keen on hustle and bustle, consequently he's kept out of the way at the rear of the field. He is obviously immensely talented, but looks difficult to win with and I can't be having him. The market will be telling of his chance. Astracad could potentially be an improver this year after a decent novice chase campaign last year. He was down the field in the Grand Annual but ran ok in the Aintree equivalent the following month. He ran off 145 in those two races and on the back of the Aintree run he has a squeak if he's improved for the summer, his consistency is admirable. However, the Aintree race was much weaker than the Grand Annual and 145 does look harsh. Consigliere has a poor first time out record and still looks plenty high enough in the handicap.

2:25 - 2 Miles. Sharp Novices Hurdle
Selection - Dodging Bullets

Dodging Bullets (Green Sleeves) - He Has Experience To Fall Back On
Dodging Bullets got his career on track when losing his maiden tag at Cheltenham last month. Although he ran in snatches, he was well on top at the end and will appreciate a faster run race. The run will have brought him on and was a nice starting point to follow on from a successful juvenile campaign last year, it should have put him spot on for this race. He was travelling very strongly in the Triumph as they turned for home but maybe didn't quite stay up the hill, although he was only beat 4 lengths. I would say he ranked highly as a juvenile last year and retaining his novice status this year is a huge plus. He has the experience that some of his rivals may lack in this race and I expect him to capitalise on it. Whether he's more talented than his rivals is unknown, the beauty of the race is they are all unexposed, but he will have more street sense, I expect him to use this to his advantage. Court Minstrel won well at Cheltenham last month quickening nicely to score by 4 lengths. He proved he was a smart bumper horse last year, 9 lengths separated him and My Tent Or Yours in the Grade 2 contest at Aintree and there may not much between them again here. I see no reason why he can't make the step up here but I wonder if that was 'his day' last month. Previous winners of the maiden hurdle he won last month include: Court In Session, King Of The Night and The Jigsaw Man. It would be fair to say that none of those have progressed to be top class. When you compare Court Minstrel to Dodging Bullets, I feel he may be a notch below him. However, in terms of betting, if 3/1 or bigger materialises about Court Minstrel I feel he is worth the punt to make the step up in class. Tominator was impressive last time out and ran well in the Ces, but I feel he may need further than 2 miles.

My selections for the day:
1:15 - Fingal Bay
1:50 - Free World E/W
2:25 - Dodging Bullets
3:00 - Deutschland
3:35 - Titan De Sarti
4:05 - Pentiffic

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown


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