THE REVIEW - Saturday 'Showcase' Meeting

This is the review of Saturday's racing at Cheltenham, my review of Friday's action can be found at http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/the-review-friday-showcase-meeting.html.

3 Mile Novice Hurdle:
This race was tricky, I backed the Phillip Hobbs trained Talkonthestreet in the morning because he brought the best form into the race having finished behind Ambion Wood and It's A Gimme. However, I thought I would head to the paddock prior to the race to have a look at the Irish contenders. The Charles Byrnes trained Our Vinnie looked very well, this obviously didn't go unnoticed on the track as he shortened in the betting to become 9/4 favourite, at the expense of Rendyl Beah who drifted like a barge. Talkonthestreet simply wasn't good enough and was already beat when he made a mistakes at 3 and 2 out. Our Vinnie travelled nicely into the race until he met the last a bit wrong, his mistake gave eventual winner According To Trev a 3 or 4 length advantage which he couldn't quite recover. If you followed the trainer in form I assume you would have backed the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained winner, he just held on from the fast finishing Our Vinnie who I can't help but feel would of beaten the winner if he hadn't made a mistake at the last. Or was According To Trev just idling in front? Of the others, Rendyl Beach made a mistake at the second last which all but scuppered his chances, I think he was just starting to struggle anyway. He's a good looking horse who should make a nice chaser in time, whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus.

Nadiya De La Vega - Blows Hot And Cold But Talented On Her Day

Betvictor.com Handicap Chase:
I wouldn't have backed Nadiya De La Vega with anyone's money! She is a tricky mare to catch right as she's been inconsistent over the years, consequently I don't trust her. Nicky Henderson after her win said: 'She dumped AP McCoy on the deck on the way to the start and she can be a funny old thing, but she goes well fresh and has been sharp at home'. The mare was always prominent during the race, she came under pressure at the bottom of the hill and responded instantly to move upsides long time leader Easter Meteor at the 2nd last before pulling away to record a 2 length victory. Henderson stated her next engagement will be the Paddy Power in a months time. I would be staying clear of her again, I think this may have been her day and it wouldn't surprise me if her ever-present mood swings prevent her from recapturing this form. The race was slightly odd because the first 3 home: Nadiya De La Vega, Easter Meteor and Finger On The Pulse were always on the sharp end, the horses in behind came to challenge at the top of the hill but never got into the race. Easter Meteor ran a cracker for a horse having only his 4th start over fences, whilst course-specialist Finger On The Pulse ran another solid race. Of my bets, Havingotascoobydo is becoming an expensive horse to follow! He travelled nicely into the race at the bottom of the hill and was one of few who managed to get on terms with the leaders, but when they kicked again he was a spent force. By the time he blundered badly at the second last he was on the retreat and I'm starting to wonder if he's in the hands of the handicapper now. The horseracingblog`s other main ante-post selection ran a a shocker! The only form of running Mad Moose did was on the way down to the start! As the horses filtered out onto the course proper all things looked rosy until he decided to dig his heels in and refuse to race. Thanks a bunch. The Horse Racing Blog, is now known to tip quirky horses that can't be arsed to race, bollocks. I spat the dummy and decided to go and back odds-on favourite Dodging Bullets in the next race with my free on course £5 bet with Ladbrokes, purely out of frustration. It paid £4 as you don't get your stake back, but I was too annoyed to care! Kauto Relko ran another good race in 5th, he was beaten 12 lengths and that's about as good as he is unfortunately. Tartak has run some much better races recently but is still too highly handicapped to win one of these races, he was Ed Quigley's 'lonshot' selection and I was conversing with Mr Quigley on twitter in the morning saying I thought he was too highly rated, hate to say it but I think I may have been right...! Divers ran around the back and never got any closer like too of Ferdy Murphy's horses for my liking, the Paddy Power is obviously the aim next month and I would expect a much bolder show.

Dodging Bullets (Pictured Left) - He Could Be A Top 2 Mile Novice  Hurdler This Year

4 Year Old Hurdle:
I thought Ranjaan would represent Nicholls here, but when the race cut up he decided to run Dodging Bullets, who although he isn't in any of my Ten To Follows this year, is a horse that I am definitely keeping an eye on. He recorded his first victory over hurdles in quite impressive style, he was very keen but jumped ok. He still looked a little fresh and was on his toes in the paddock before the race, obviously a bit hyped up. Although Ruby did have to nudge him along at various stages in the race, when he gave him some reign and urged him forward the response was immediate. I thought that showed real class and this horse obviously has a good turn of foot. The run will have undoubtedly done him the world of good and I would expect he will progress to be a leading protagonist in the 2 mile novice hurdle ranks this year. I thought Baby Mix would struggle to give Dodging Bullets 8 pounds and that was proven to be correct. I don't hold him in the same regard as Dodging Bullets and I think he may really struggle outside of novice company this year, he's been known to flash his tail and I'm not sure how genuine he is, or how much he finds off the bridle. I think Baby Mix may need a step up in trip.

Balthazar King (Near Side) - It's Simple. He Wins First Time Out

3 Mile Handicap Chase:
Although Balthazar King won this race last year, it was a much weaker renewal than this year. The boost in prize money and softer ground meant that the race attracted more entries, consequently it made it bloody difficult! I had originally been interested in Qianshan Leader for the race, but felt on reflection he does not always run so well first time out and on release of the entries favoured both Galaxy Rock and Balthazar King which I had running in win doubles. On seeing both turning in together I became somewhat confused and initially started to cheer home Tony, only to realise just after the last that I stood to win more if Balthazar King won, switched allegiance and roared Dickie home up the run-in to get the better of Galaxy Rock to win the race for the second year running. He loves Cheltenham, jumps superbly and goes from the front. Get past me if you can. He also wins first time out, Cross Country will now be on the agenda and he should go well once again, before the long term target, the Grand National in the Spring. Although he will carry a lot of weight in Cross Country chases, they crawl in the those races and only start racing in the last mile, so weight shouldn't be too much of a problem. Spothedifference and Garde Champetre won regularly carrying big weights. When Galaxy Rock did move past him at the top of the hill he looked the likely winner, Galaxy Rock is a dour stayer and was obviously on his A game after a prep race round Fontwell had sharpened him up. To his credit Richard Johnson gave Balthazar King a fantastic ride, when Galaxy Rock strode on he gave his horse a bit of time to fill his lungs up before he could unleash his finishing burst to power past Galaxy Rock up the hill. Richard Johnson rode a brilliant race, it made the ride McCoy gave Galaxy Rock look a bit iffy. Having gone to the front, knowing how well his horse stays, he could have surely given him a kick in the belly to open up his lead as he turned for home, but he didn't. This gave Balthazar King the opportunity to get close up again, even worse McCoy committed the cardinal sin of letting Johnson back up his inside off the turn and in doing so surrendered the rail. Dad who really fancied Galaxy Rock, it is fair to say royally spat the dummy. He also fancies himself as a bit of a "Swinger King" (don`t tell Mum!) and usually has a swinger bet in the big handicaps, on realising he had tipped the one, two, three and hadn`t had the bet, became positively pre menstrual!! Hold On Julio ran well to finish third having done his usual, taking a few fences with him on the way round. He ran off 144 and I think he may be a few pounds to the good still, it wouldn't surprise me if he goes close in his next engagement in the Hennessy next month. Bradley and Fredo ran well without quite ever getting to the leaders, they both have a win in them at some point this year. Bradley looks like he may need further, I think the 3 mile 3 furlong handicap chase Galaxy Rock won last year at the Open Meeting would be ideal. Similar to the Betvictor.com handicap chase there were a lot of horses who never got into the race, the winner and 2nd were both at the sharp end of the race all the way. There are loads of horses who finished down the field who I wouldn't write off yet, Qianshan Leader always needs  a run to sharpen him up so put a line through his run. Also Darna and Blues And Two's, who both fell early in the race, could still have improvement in them this year. Mattie Batchelor clearly wasn't ready when Carruthers got left at the start and only supported the argument that the 3 mile start needs amending  The starter had a stinker.

2 Mile 5 Furlong Handicap Hurdle:
The day couldn't have started any better when Routs, a member of the Elite Racing Club syndicate, was lucky enough get an owners badge representing Mister Dillon. Dad, Chunky and I had a decision to make, do we watch Routs strut his stuff in the paddock, or do we watch Frankel? So we hurried off to the Tote inside the 'Hurdlers Hall' to watch one of the best racehorses that has ever been! Mister Dillon was first into the paddock and around 20 seconds later was the first out. He was walking with a limp, the vet had a look at him and found he had pulled a shoe off. We all backed the horse because we're a sentimental bunch, but though fancied, he was off the bridle a long way out and perhaps pulling off that shoe was an influence. To his credit AP McCoy made amends for any mistake on Galaxy Rock when he muscled eventual winner Bondage between Medinas and the rail on the home turn. Although he took the last hurdle with him, Bondage extended up the hill nicely and was driven right out to win by 3 lengths. I tipped Medinas in my pre Cheltenham blog and was pleased he ran well to finish 2nd. He was a decent horse last year without ever setting the world alight running below par at Cheltenham in April when beaten 46 lengths by Captain Sunshine. I felt he was better than that effort and put a line through the run, he obviously improved for his handicap debut. He is a diddly little thing, running off level weights in novice hurdles against physically more mature horses last year probably wasn't ideal. Alan King`s horses are red hot at the moment, he had two runners at Cheltenham over the two days, Hold On Julio was 3rd and Medinas 2nd. Quieros Bleu and favourite Rolling Aces travelled strongly into the race but couldn't quite go with the leaders once they kicked for home. Captain Sunshine was going as well as any coming down the hill, he was given every chance of winning the race, unfortunately, he wasn't quite good enough to go with the leaders, I think he ran creditably on his handicap debut and I wouldn't give up on him yet. Now This Is It made a bad mistake 2 out, he was on the leaders coat-tails when he pecked badly on landing which shuffled him back. He couldn't recover but ran ok. Big Easy from the Philip Hobbs stable stayed on past the horses mentioned above to run into 5th place. Awkward leaps at 3 and 2 out all but scuppered his chances as they occurred when the leaders kicked for home. The gelding was always playing catch-up after that, he looked to get done for toe as well so a step up in trip may be needed. He could be the one to take out of the race.

2 Mile Novice Chase:
This wasn't the best of races, Third Intention was the best horse in the race but I don't think there was much strength in depth. The winner, His Excellency trained by David Pipe, won going away from Third Intention having seen out the 2 mile trip better than his rival. I wouldn't say he is top class, he won't be beating the best 2 mile novice chasers around this year, but he isn't the worst and I would fancy him to have a handicap win in him this year as a novice. Third Intention jumped well, possibly a little too well, he didn't touch a twig and gave them plenty of air. He was also a bit keen, this probably cost him on the run-in as he emptied after the last. There are also doubts about how much this horse likes being in front. Routs was quick to point out that he did the same at Haydock as a juvenile when he was beaten by Houblon Des Obeaux. Whether he has a problem finishing his races, or he needs some company throughout his races, I think some blinkers or cheek pieces might assist. Jump City from the Paul Nicholls stable was out-paced all the way and jumped cautiously, he looks to need further than 2 miles. Peckhamecho simply wasn't good enough to give weight to his rivals, he made plenty of jumping errors and I thought he was out-classed.

Bumper:
Southfield Theatre was backed off the boards into 13/8 favourite from 3/1 in the morning. Someone knew something! Although I didn't actually see the race because we had to leave early to get back for a party for 9pm. I've seen the replays and I thought he was quite impressive, it wasn't the worst bumper in the world, there were plenty of previous winners in the race. He stayed on better than the second Monkey Kingdom, it took him a while to get going but when he did he surged clear up the run-in. It looks like he will need further in time. He is a very interesting recruit to the Ditcheat team, Caroline Keevil has obviously done a good job. I think his career will be over the larger obstacles so anything he does this year is bonus. He may go novice hurdling later this season, but I would stick to bumpers for the time being while he matures, he has decent form in the book having won this race and finishing 5th behind Neptune Hurdle ante-post favourite The New One. I wouldn't expect fireworks from him this year, but he's one for the notebook and he may come to prominence next season or even the one after that. Creepy from the Martin Keighley stable ran on well for 4th, it was relatively eye-catching as he was completely done for pace coming down the hill. He should make a nice staying novice hurdler in the future.

Southfield Theatre Gets The Thumbs Up From His Trainer!

In terms of the racing at Ascot, Frankel was as brilliant as ever. Having 'fallen' out of the stalls, it was no mean feat how he eased himself back into the race and how kindly he travelled in the ground for Tom Queally. Quickening in the heavy ground was never going to be easy, especially against two horses who act on that ground in the form of Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel. It was never going to be an exhilarating victory, but considering what happened at the start it was as impressive as I thought it could possibly be. When Excelebration made some of the best milers around look like selling platers on the same card, it emphasised just how seriously good Frankel is, or 'was' I should say, now he's retired. I would compare him to Michael Phelps at the Beijing Olympics, 8 gold medals and 7 world records re-wrote the history books. It would be fair to say Frankel has done the same. Like Phelps at his pomp, he was invincible. He broke all the rules.

Frankel = Phelps

Of interest:

1. Get Me Out Of Here justified my faith in him when he won at Kempton on Sunday, I hope he goes novice chasing this year. For my thoughts why please refer to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/a-novice-chase-insightcontinued.html
2. Mr Mole was impressive on his debut in JP McManus colours at Exeter on Tuesday, he looks a chaser in the making.
3. Waaheb made a nice return from his lay-off at Fairyhouse on Tuesday, although his jumping was a bit hit and miss, the run will have done him the world of good. When Mark Walsh asked him to extend the response was immediate, he drew clear to win by a very easy 7 lengths. He's always been held in high regard by Dermot Weld and he could enhance that reputation this year.
4. Sizing Rio was seriously impressive at Fairyhouse too, the ground was soft but he quickened really nicely. He's a compact little horse who looks like a ball of muscle, I'm expecting big things from him. Although the times of Waaheb and this horse were relatively slow, that wouldn't worry too much considering how soft the ground was and their manner of victories.

Waaheb (Pictured Left) - Looks To Be Something Special

THE REVIEW - Friday The 'Showcase' Meeting

There's nothing quite like the atmosphere at Cheltenham, that buzz around the paddock before the opening race cannot be matched. Returning to the 'Home Of Jump Racing' was superb and certainly whet the appetite for next months 'Open Meeting'. If any of you readers have never been to Cheltenham, I can't speak highly enough of the racecourse, it's impossible to leave dissatisfied!

Having had time to reflect on my racing at Cheltenham over the weekend. Lets start at the beginning.....Friday:

Neptune Novices Hurdle:
The race was all about one horse, The New One from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. He was an easy winner at Newton Abbott over 2 miles on his hurdling debut and he was equally impressive when taking this higher class contest. Any doubts what his optimum trip is were promptly swept aside after he powered up the hill to a 3 length victory. 2 1/2 miles is definitely his trip, he will need even further in time. He was slightly novicey at some of his hurdles but otherwise his jumping was safe and when Village Vic asked him a serious question when joining him at the last, he responded strongly to Sam Twiston-Davies urgings and won a cosy 3 lengths. Village Vic looked the best of the rest and seems to fit a similar mould, he will need 3 miles in time too but may be a notch or two below top-class. Top-class is what the winner looked, his trainer after the race stated: 'I think he's very special, I hope his jumping errors were just inexperience. Big Bucks will not go on forever so in 18 months time we might be looking at races like the World Hurdle.' He's obviously rated very highly and looks to be a Gold Cup horse in the making, he will return to Cheltenham next month for the Open Meeting. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so in my pre weekend blog! The New One was a good thing!! http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/selections-showcase-cheltenham.html

The New One

2 Mile 4 Furlong Novice Chase:
Those of you who read my pre weekend blog will know that I was very sweet on the chances of King Of The Night in this race. His 3rd place finish was a good effort and he will have learned a lot from the experience. He jumped nicely throughout, albeit a bit slow and slightly right-handed. I would say that he would be seen best going right-handed. I haven't given up on him yet. Carlito Brigante was a battling winner and was gettable when looking back at his previous winning course form, he's just too inconsistent. He's a notch below top-class but it depends if you catch him on a going day. Domtaline was a bit of an unlucky second, he measured his fences superbly and nearly won by 'out-jumping' his rivals, another day he would of won the race. There's a win in him somewhere this year. I don't understand why Go All The Way was favourite, his form over hurdles wasn't very good and I don't hold him in the same regard as others. He was a beaten horse when he came down and gave Andrew Lynch a cracking limp! The horse I've taken out of the race though is Kingsmere. This resident of the Henry Daly stable came down 2 out and was probably a bit unlucky. He was almost going too well when swinging off the bend and met the second last completely wrong, I don't think he took off, he just ploughed through it. He was tanking along! I think he caught Jake Greenall out, it looked like he let Kingsmere make his own mind up whilst Kingsmere was hoping Greenall would make his mind up for him. Routs (who navigated so incredibly adequately from the back seat on his phone all weekend) told me after the race that whilst on a stable tour Daly had said he really liked this horse and was hoping that he could make a very good chaser. Tell you what Henry. I think you might be right! He's subsequently gone into my Sportinglife stable and I'm hopeful he might be that good horse Henry Daly has been missing since the retirement of Mighty Man.

Kingsmere

Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier:
Have to admit, considering this was one of the most competitive races of the meeting, I didn't do too badly. I tipped Heaney (3rd) from Ireland and Viking Blond (2nd) as an each-way shout. I would take another chance on Heaney as he looked to have a few traffic problems at the top of the hill, although he came there menacingly turning for home, he had used too much petrol to get there and couldn't go with the the front two up the hill. His handicap mark won't change too much and I think he has another win in him. My each-way selection Viking Blond ran a stonker! I felt he may have a good chance off 127 and so it proved, the Twiston-Davies yard had a great meeting and you can't help but feel that this was his day. He looked a picture in the paddock and may have been primed for the race. Twiston-Davies likes to run his horses so I would expect to see him again soon and depending on what happens to his handicap mark, he could go close again this year. He is a reliable type, but I would be interested to see what they do with the blinkers though. He didn't wear them on Friday and it seemed to freshen him up. The winner, Action Master, looked seriously well handicapped and it will be interesting to see how much his rating rises in due course. He won with plenty in hand and I wouldn't be surprised if he was stepped up in class next time out. Sivola De Sivola ran another eye-catcher without getting close to the front end, he's becoming difficult to place.

Viking Blond

3 Mile Novice Chase:
I said I didn't think this was a great novice chase, which may have been a bit harsh, but having seen the outcome I've concluded it was a bit better than I gave it credit, but not that much. The winner, Sire Collonges impressed me a lot actually. He wasn`t that great over hurdles, but I get the impression whatever he did over hurdles was a bonus because he was bought as a chaser and he looks a good chaser too! Like Domtaline, the other Nicholls novice chaser, he jumped immaculately. Nicholls must school his horses like hell because they jump so much better than the other other novices it's embarrassing! Apart from Walsh`s nearly embarrassing loss of balance at the second last the greys performance was perfect. Always prominent, the grey dictated things from the front and was always in control. 20-1 ante-post for the RSA chase looks a bit skimpy at the moment, I don't think he beat much but his style of racing would seem perfect for that race. Jumping from fence to fence, at his own pace, dictating the race might be ideal, it just depends if he's good enough. It's likely he isn't and he may give the better horses a tow into the race. I backed White Star Line, who ran poorly, he made a bad mistake when the race started to hot up which wasn't ideal but I think he was beat anyway. He's not a natural over a fence. Whilst Sire Collonges looked athletic, White Star Line certainly didn't. There's also a possibility he didn't stay 3 miles, may be a revert back to 2 1/2 miles is on the cards?  Sea Of Thunder ran ok but he was never beating Sire Collonges, if he wasn't a Gigginstown horse he wouldn't of gone off 11/8 favourite! The winner looks like fences have been the making of him and he ticks a lot of the right boxes. He's progressive and you can't help but like the horse.

Sire Collonges Falls At Aintree Last Year

Maiden Hurdle:
Court Minstrel gave owner Janet Davies her first winner at Cheltenham and upset the big boys whilst doing so. He was smooth in success and is a strong traveller, which should hold him in good stead when competing in better company. It depends how much he will find off the bridle, looking at Friday's 4 length victory it's feasible to say he will find plenty, the winning margin was extending all the way to line. He strengthens the form of The New One who beat him in the Aintree Bumper and also the highly rated novice Tistory from the Henderson yard who beat him 3/4 length at Ludlow. I like him an awful lot. The award for worst effort of the meeting across the two days goes to the John Ferguson trained Population who pulled up just after half way. It was weird. Titan De Sarti made a much improved return after a lengthy lay off, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but stayed on past beaten horses to take 3rd, a step up in trip looks on the cards and he may be an animal on an upward curve this term. Landscape from the Paul Nicholls stable ran disappointingly but may have needed the run after nearly a year off. Softsong from the Phillip Hobbs stable pulled like hell and was so free that Richard Johnson let him stride on and although he finished 5th beaten 13 lengths he was bang there at the last. He made a mistake and soon weakened but he may be one to keep an eye on because his effort was better than it appears at first sight. The Romford Pele has course form following his 7th in the Cheltenham Bumper and looks like a decent yardstick.

Titan De Sarti Ran A Much Better Race

Amateur Riders Handicap Chase:
I fancied Iheardu, if I put you onto the horse, I'm sorry Uheardme. It was a terrible bet! Always in rear and never closer until pulled up. When he won this race last year it was a much weaker renewal than this year, the winner Hunters Lodge was a classic case of 'follow the in form trainers!' http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/autumn-twiston-davies-factor.html He became the second part of a Twiston-Davies double, albeit slightly fortuitously! The Gordon Elliot trained Romanesco was p*****g all over him at the last until he landed too steep and turned over on landing, leaving jockey J J Codd thumping the ground with frustration. The back seat sleeper (apparently he only snores when horizontal, thank god!) stood in his lucky spot on the grass, whilst the rest of us sat in the seats. The lucky spot had brought him a winner when Court Minstrel won the previous race and he wasn't for persuading when asked if he was watching with us. Immediately after Hunters Lodge crossed the line we looked down to where he was standing and saw him stationary, looking a bit glum. We assumed he had backed Romanesco, I was praying he had backed Romanesco! Sadly, he had backed the winner. I was already lining up the abuse he was going to receive that evening! The one day ban some of the jockeys got for showing 'misconduct' was ridiculous. The 3 mile start isn't in a suitable position to cater for big fields in handicaps, the entrance onto the course just isn't wide enough to have 20 jockeys competing for very little room, consequently it gets messy. The start is fine for smaller fields but it's not working for the bigger fields. Amendments needed please Simon Claisse.

Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle:
This race looked seriously difficult on paper. It turned out to be much easier than it looked after Dark Lover won very decisively, Ryan Mahon gave it a peach of a ride and as soon as they turned in there was only one winner. The 605 day absence obviously didn't hinder him in any way, you would expect he's a miles better than the 120 rating he was running off! He should step up in class now and he could have another handicap win in him, he is on an upward curve. Changing Of The Guard ran another great race, ever consistent but always finds one to good. I hope the handicapper is kind to him because you have to admire his reliability. Persian Snow ran an eye-catching race, staying on from the rear to take 3rd. He was very highly thought of in his early days, I remember him winning a bumper around Ascot a couple of years ago and kept an eye out for him afterwards. He was saved for the Aintree bumper but didn't make the shake up, sadly he didn't transfer that form to hurdles initially. It appears he may be starting to get his act together over hurdles now, could appreciate a step up in trip and perhaps one to put in your Sportinglife stable.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

Selections - 'The Showcase' Cheltenham

I am attending both days of Cheltenham's 'Showcase' meeting this weekend, consequently I will be far too busy to blog! Before I leave for Gloucestershire, I feel obliged to reveal my thoughts on the weekends action, I hope these selections are as successful as last week!

2:10 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Selection - The New One - Even Money
In recent memory, has there been a horse that has caused such a stir from the Twiston-Davies stable? 6th in the Cheltenham Bumper at the Festival last year, the gelding finished last season on a real high by taking the Aintree equivalent a month later. He has a novice hurdle win under his belt after a classy success at Newton Abbot earlier in the month and I would expect him to be too good for his rivals here. The main question mark will be how he handles the uncharted waters the extra 5 furlongs will throw up. I personally think it will be play to his strengths, he has a lot of scope and a stamina test will suit him down to the ground. In time I think he will need even further. He brings the best form into the race and looks a good thing.

The New One

2:45 - 2 miles 4 furlongs Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night- 4/1
Undoubtedly the best horse in the race if you look at hurdle ratings. His trainer Harry Fry, who has gone solo after leaving the Paul Nicholls' stable in the summer, has stated that the horse has been schooling nicely. You would imagine King Of The Night is the second best horse in his yard behind reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby, he was rated 157 over hurdles. He has winning course form at this meeting two years ago and I think his rivals will struggle to give him weight, bearing in mind he was a better hurdler. If he transfers his hurdle form he should go close on his chase debut.

King Of The Night

3:20 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Qualifier
Selection - Heaney -5/1
Wow this is a competitive race, I found it really hard to narrow it down to one. In the end I've gone for the Irish raider, the Tom Taafe trained Heaney. The gelding looks unexposed, his last win two weeks ago at Gowran over 3 miles was quite impressive. He has been raised 10 pounds for that win, but I think there may be more to come. I am inquisitive as to why he is coming across the Irish Sea for a race so soon after his last run, my guess is this horse ideally wants good ground, which he can't find in Ireland. He is a 5 year old, which suggests to me he is on the upgrade, also Paul Townend comes over to retain the winning partnership. As long as the run two weeks ago, along with his travels,  hasn't taken too much out of him,  I think he stands as good a chance as any in a very competitive race. If I had to look elsewhere I quite like Viking Blond (16/1) each way from the Twiston-Davies yard. The stable is in form and he has dropped to a mark of 127 over hurdles. His novice chase campaign last year was an unsuccessful one, but it looks like he has dropped to a winnable mark over hurdles. Using Cross Kennon as a guide, Viking Blond was a 3 length second to the top weight at the Open Meeting in 2010. 2 years on Cross Kennon is rated 147, Viking Blond 127. This means Cross Kennon has to to give Viking Blond 20 pounds, whereas if you take the previous Open Meeting form, he should only be giving him 3 or 4 pounds. He could be well in.

3:55 - 3 Mile Novice Chase
Selection - White Star Line - 5/1
I don't think this is a great race to be honest. I don't rate many of the horses highly and all things considered, it's a poor novice chase by Cheltenham's standards. Nonetheless, if I had to make a selection it would White Star Line. He is another Irish raider having his first try over 3 miles. He was 2nd to Hunt Ball at the Festival last year and appeared to be done for toe at the bottom of the hill. More recently, he was 2nd to the high class mare Tarla from the Willie Mullins stable over hurdles. If you read the 'comments in running' from the Racing Post, the majority say that this horse 'kept on' to run into the placings. I think perhaps the step up in trip will be to his advantage. Sea Of Thunder is over-rated, he is judged on his run when falling at the last when he was 6 lengths clear in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham last year. What was behind him that day? Deireadh Re and Rev It Up. They have not proven to be great. The rest of his form isn't anything special either.

Iheardu

5:05 - Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
Selection - Iheardu - 11/1
Winner of the race last year off a mark of 105, he runs again this year off 106. I think he prefers quick ground as he does his racing throughout the summer, I fear the good to soft ground at Cheltenham will be too slow for him. He has never won on anything softer than good. However, I would still be keen on taking my chance on this resident of Neil Mulholland's stable. Mr J T Carroll rode him last year and has experience around Cheltenham, that's more than some of the other jockeys can offer. It's a tricky race and I've gone for previous Cheltenham form as my guide. Although if I gave you a fiver and asked you to have a bet for me, I would be happy if you backed almost any of the runners. It's a guess-up!

For my thoughts on the big 2 1/2 mile handicap chase on Saturday please refer to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/cheltenhams-showcase-meeting-preview.html.

Other horses to keep an eye out for over the weekend :
Ranjaan
Qianshan Leader
Bradley
Medinas
Third Intention
Get Me Out Of Here

Also..........Frankel.

Cheltenham's Showcase Meeting Preview

Friday 19th October witnesses the return of jump racing to its spiritual home. The jump racing community descends on Prestbury Park after the summer break, all eager to to see those tapes go up for the first race, a sign that confirms Cheltenham is alive again after a dormant 5 months. The highlight of the 'Showcase' meeting is the Betvictor.com Handicap Chase over 2miles 4 furlongs on Saturday. I am going to attempt to find you the winner following the 5 day declarations which were released yesterday.

Entries For The Betvictor.com Handicap Chase

First of all, lets look at the previous winners of the race. I can't stress highly enough how useful it is to do this! I was pleasantly surprised to find out that this is the first step Pricewise supremo Tom Segal takes when going about tipping, great minds as they say! The point of doing this is, in the words of Tom Segal: 'To find out what type of horse wins the race'. Once you've found this out, you can start to dissect the race looking for horses which you think may fit that trend.

Previous Winners:

2011: Billie Magern: Age 7, Weight 10-11, Rating 133.
2010: Edgbriar: Age 8, Weight 10-13, Rating 137.
2009: Poquelin: Age 6, Weight 11-12, Rating 139.
2008: Ouzbeck: Age 6, Weight 11-10, Rating 142.
2007: Knowhere: Age 9, Weight 11-12, Rating 144.

Edgbriar

Previous winners would suggest you need a horse aged between 6-9, but most of the horses entered will be within that bracket. To narrow it down further, look at how many of the horses were second season chasers when they won the race. All 5 of them! We need a second season chaser.

When looking at weight, the 2011 and 2010 winners carried much lower weights than those who won the race before 2010. The same profile horse has been winning the race but has been carrying a lower weight, this would suggest that better horses (that have a higher rating) have been running in the race in the last two runnings. Consequently, I would take the most recent renewals of the race as the ones to take your guide from. Weights carried aren't always the best trend to follow as they can fluctuate year to year depending on what horses are entered.

A more reliable trend to follow is rating. We are looking for a horse that is a second season chaser which, looking at 2010 and 2011, is rated between 132-140 (give or take a pound).

Two horses have made my short-list.

Havingotascoobydo
Second season chaser who performed admirably last year over fences and hurdles. He was on the go in October at Ffos Las, Aintree and Wetherby. He was a very easy winner at Ffos Las and Wetherby, but he was a faller whilst favourite in a novice chase at Aintree. Remember when Ruby Walsh got a whip ban after getting Edgardo Sol home by a nose? It was that race. From there he went to the Open Meeting at Cheltenham and ran a good second to Tanks For That, the subsequent Grand Annual runner-up.  He picked up an injury during his preparations for the Festival last year, this means he comes into this campaign as a fresh horse - he has won first time out in 2010 and 2011. He is rated 137 and is a 7 year old. He looks unexposed and has decent course form, we know he runs well at this time of the year which is a bonus. He should go well.

Mad Moose
Mad Moose went slightly under the radar last year, I think his form is a bit better than it looks at first glance.  He was 3rd at this meeting last year in a 3 mile novice chase when he didn't quite stay, so he was reverted back to 2 1/2 miles. Instead of running in novice chases, he was tried in some of the most competitive 2 1/2 handicap chases of the year. His effort in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham where he was 8th, beaten 22 lengths behind Medermit and co wasn't the worst. Neither was his next run behind Salut Flo at the Festival, he was 8th once again beaten 20 lengths. He was beaten a long way, but the task he faces this weekend will be much easier. He returned to Cheltenham in April to win a handicap novices chase when he gave weight all around to stay on past Arctic Ben and Take Of Shoc's to record a 3 length victory. In terms of jumping, he was relatively hit and miss last year which would be a concern, but you would expect him to be improving in that department as a second season chaser. He is rated 138 and is also an 8 year old. I think he may still be on the upgrade and he is resident of the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable who have saddled 2 of the last 5 winners of this race. The stable is bang in from again this term which is a huge plus. He has winning course form and all things considered, although you take a punt on his jumping, he looks to have strong claims. Additionally, he is likely to be a bigger price than Havingotascoobydo so keep an eye out!

I can't split the two of them. I think my final decision will be heavily influenced by the market, to be honest it depends what price I can get on the day.

Selection: Mad Moose
Insurance: Havingotascoobydo

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

Paul Nicholl's - Where His Chasers Will Be Heading

Paul Nicholls has recently outlined his plans for 'Team Ditcheat's' squad of chasers before the new year. The chasing unit has been the spearhead of the Nicholl's stable in previous campaigns, which has won 7 consecutive trainers championships. Although this years members probably don't have the strength in depth of previous years, there is still much to look forward to!


Silviniaco Conti:
Is pencilled in for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby later this month. He was a good winner at Aintree in the Spring and although Champion Court and Join Together wouldn't have been the best 3 mile novices around last year, he thumped them by 13 lengths. He appears to prefer a flat track and sharp 3 miles which he should get at Wetherby. He's a sound jumper so Wetherby's stiff fences shouldn't be a problem, I don't know what else is entered for the Charlie Hall but you would say this fella has a lot in his favour. From there, the King George may be his next target if all goes well.

Join Together:
A trip across the Irish Sea is on the cards for this horse. Down Royal is his destination, I assume for the JN Wine chase that Kauto Star made his own. If this horse had never run at a Cheltenham Festival I think he would be held in much higher regard. On his two visits to the meeting he has been pulled up, but his other runs in the season have been quite impressive, including wins at Cheltenham's November and December meetings last year. He could have a squeak in the race bearing in mind he tends to run his best races towards the beginning of the year, but he may be outclassed with horses such as Sizing Europe also being aimed at the race. He is another who may go to Kempton on Boxing Day looking further ahead.

Cristal Bonus:
He is also off to Down Royal. Think his target is the 2m 1/2 mile chase that Kauto Stone won last year. If you put a scratch through his run at the Festival, where he was a very poorly horse, he had a good season last year. Bought out of the Evan Williams yard this time last year, he had a very progressive season which culminated in a brave second to Menorah at Aintree. He had to lead which wasn't ideal, but to his credit he plugged on from the front to chase home the winner by 7 lengths. I think he may want 3 miles in time, (ran in Cleeve Hurde behind Grands Crus in 2011 while with Evan Williams) but for the time being this looks like a nice starting point. It wouldn't be a shock if he was in the shake up. Like the above, the King George could be on the agenda around Christmas time. 3 miles on a flat track should be right up his street.

Tidal Bay:
He will be hard to place this year after his easy win in what was the Whitbread at Sandown in May. He is another for the King George before the Grand National trials come along after Christmas.

Sanctuaire

Sanctuaire:
Sanctuaire is Sandown bound for a potentially mouth watering clash with 2011 Queen Mother winner Sizing Europe and 2013 ante-post favourite Sprinter Sacre. What makes it better is I will be there! (For those reading this who may be offended that me and dad haven't invited you, we will be in contact in due course, the idea only sprung up on Saturday night in a slightly alcohol influenced conversation). He was a very easy winner of the Celebration Chase at Sandown on the last day of the 2012 national hunt season and you would expect him to build on that win this season. He is a headstrong type, but it seems to be to his advantage as he attacks his fences and jumps them with real zest. Sandown's stiff jumping test will either be a happy hunting ground or a graveyard. If he has a clear round, he will go close. If he gets one wrong, that will be his race over. Whether he is on the same level as the other two I don't know. We will find out at Sandown won't we!

Al Ferof

Al Ferof:
He will be stepped up in trip this season, the plan is to reappear at Huntingdon for the Peterborough Chase before a crack at the King George. This year looks to be a fact finding mission for the grey. The main question that needs to be answered is: what is his optimum trip? Once the answer is found, he will be an easier horse to place and long-term targets can be drawn up. My opinion is we won't find out this year, but with another years maturity he will appreciate the extra stamina test 3 miles has to offer. He is still only 7 going on 8.

Pacha Du Polder - Thought to be an improver this season

Other Horses Include:
Impressive 2010 Aintree Festival winner Tataniano reappears at Chepstow in a fortnight to contest the race he won last year, whilst Harry The Viking is being aimed at Ascot's £100,000 Handicap Chase on the 3rd November. Edgardo Sol's plans are up in the air after the manner of his victory at Aintree last year has risen his handicap mark to 157. Pacha Du Polder is being considered for the Old Roan at Aintree later this month, Nicholls thinks he could be a massive impover this season!

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

Frustration, Frustration, Frustration.

Saturday was an enjoyable day. Although I won very little money, 4 winners was good for the confidence but more importantly, the return of the national hunt season was the highlight. Oh how I missed it! Its return rekindled that fire that is put on the back burner throughout the summer. Although I enjoy the flat racing season, jump racing is where the heart lies!

Jump Racing Returned To Chepstow Last Weekend

However the satisfied feeling I had on Saturday night, whilst sitting in the Chinese restaurant tucking into some aromatic duck pancakes was swiftly replaced with the overriding feeling of outright frustration on Sunday evening. I had written down two horses that I really wanted to back, but I could only justify backing one of them, so I only had the solitary bet. When some of you readers have asked me to single out one horse to follow this season, I have consistently responded : 'Teelin Star, with out a doubt.' So when I saw the horse entered at Limerick yesterday I couldn't help myself. I had to back him, even at 4/6. What would my readers think of me if I hadn't backed the one horse I had advised them to follow? Especially if it had won. Or even worse, it had won and they had backed it? So I backed him, I blame peer pressure. He was taking a fair tug on his way down to the first and clearly wasn't on a stride, so he belted it half way up unseating Barry Geraghty in the process. It was always on the cards. Bollocks!

You can guess what at happened next! The other horse I wrote down romped home, accelerating away from his rivals like a really good horse. Even more eye catching was his sublime leap at the first fence, reminiscent of a gazelle! Very unlike Teelin Star. The horse I'm talking about is Argocat from the Tom Taafe stable, he quickened up effortlessly in the testing ground to saunter past the highly rated Johannisberger to record a 7 length victory at 4-1. I had taken a liking to him when he was third on the 31st December 2011 at Punchestown, he ran a good race to finish 3rd behind quality horses Shadow Catcher and Darroun. I quietly fancied him for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, the general trend is the highest rated flat horses normally come off best in the 2 mile 1 furlong contest. This lad was rated 88 on the flat and I heard a little rumour Taafe liked him for the race. Anyway, it wasn't to be as he finished 9th beaten 13 lengths. I swore to myself I would keep an eye on him though for the future, I clearly didn't! This horse looked something pretty special yesterday though so I would keep an eye out!

Argocat (Far Side) wins on the flat under Frankie Dettori in October 2010

That brought the curtain down on what was an up and down weekend. I can't complain though I selected 10 horses across the two days and 5 of them won. I will take a 50% win percentage for the rest of the season! I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did, roll on Cheltenham on Friday!!!

Any questions or comments? Contact me through Twitter: @JoshRWDown

THE REVIEW 13/10/2012 - Super Saturday Selections

On a day where my 7 selections yielded 4 winners, 1 second and 2 unplaced, you would of thought I may have more money in my pocket now than I did at this time yesterday? Your'e incorrect. I hope you readers wallets are fatter than mine right now!

Reckless Abandon - Win 9/4
Clive Cox's colt was extremely brave in victory to claim the Middle Park Stakes. I was a bit worried when he was extremely keen when going down to post, but he is a quirky individual and this sort of behaviour doesn't seem to hinder him. Top jockey Gerald Mosse gave him a great ride, his shrewd tactical move to break quickly and get over to the rail from his wide draw effectively won him the race. I'm so happy Reckless Abandon's normal jockey Adam Kirby decided to jump off him and hop onto second placed finisher Moohaajm, would rather have Mosse on board any day of the week - he's class! Talk about a tilt at the 2000 Guineas next spring is absurd in my opinion. He has bags of speed, so why blunt that weapon by stepping him up in distance? He is a sprinter, no arguments. Last words on the race, unlucky Adam Kirby!!!

Dawn Approach

Dawn Approach - Win 2/5
Easiest race to watch all day. Never had any worries from start to finish. He's not the most flashy, but he's impressive in his own way. He was 6-1 ante-post with Paddy Power for the 2000 Guineas next year before the race, to my amazement he is now 7-2! I don't think that's a great ante-post bet. There are other 2 year olds who have also caught my eye this year, it looks a talented crop and there is plenty of maturing to be done between now and next May. I'm very sweet on last weeks Longchamp victor Olympic Glory. He appears to be the best of Richard Hannon's many talented 2 year olds and represents much better value at 16/1 than Dawn Approach at 7-2. However, I think Dawn Approach is a very serious prospect for next season and could well justify his 7-2 price next May. The fact he is never visually impressive is probably influencing my argument but I see no reason why he couldn't emulate his Dad (New Approach) by becoming the top 3 year old colt next year.

Countrywide Flame

Countrywide Flame - Second 7/1
I am still annoyed by this race. I think he was a tad unlucky in defeat but I cannot fault the horse, he was very brave in defeat. He was given a super ride by Jimmy Quinn who at 2 furlong pole had given the gelding every chance of victory. He just couldn't get passed Kieren Fallon and Aaim To Prosper who you have to give credit to, the first horse to win the Cesarewitch twice is some feat! I think Countrywide Flame was hindered by the winner hanging into him in the last 2 furlongs, it was a major factor in explaining why he couldn't get passed him. When the front one straightened up my lad was running on again to only be beaten 1/2 length. If he had a fair run at it the placing would have surely been reversed. In fairness to Fallon he had his whip in the correct hand so you can't fault his jockeyship, it's just very frustrating. I'm going to stop talking about this now as I can feel the steam starting to gather in my ears.

Fingal Bay - Win 4/6
I said he was value at even money and I still think he was value at 4/6. He jumped impeccably and won a very cosy length. Although the race wasn't much of a contest after Poungach fell at the first, Richard Johnson seemed comfortable the whole way round and was more than happy to lob along in front. He idled in front and the threat from Tiger O'Toole was never a serious one, but don't underestimate the runner-up, he was rated 137 over hurdles. All in all, a good start and a nice way to blow away the cob webs. His next target will be a novice chase at Wincanton or at the Open Meeting next month.

Hinterland

Hinterland - Win 11/8
The easiest winner of the day! He was very impressive and one of the smoothest successes you will see all year. Those of you who read my blog about Hinterland  ( My Hinterland Blog can be found at : http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/a-season-of-promise-for-hinterland.html.) will know I thought this horse was a fantastic jumper and he proved me right today, he was as slick as you like. He will make a cracking novice chaser later in the year. I also tipped Red Riverman from the Twiston Davies yard each way at 33/1, he ran on to finish second but he wasn't carrying my money - bollocks I got a 100% return on the Hinterland win but could have had over 700% return on Twisty`s gelding ! I will gain some compensation if he was carrying yours though! Feel free to contact me through twitter if this is the case, I'm sure you'll love basking in my failures :)!

Ulis De Vassey - Unplaced 11/2
I was quids in if this horse had come home in front, unfortunately it was not to be. I didn't know much about the horse and took the punt because he was at the bottom of the handicap and unexposed. I suggested in my blog that previous winners in the race were very lightly weighted, I obviously picked the wrong one. The winner, Kitegen, carried 10-8. Oh well. When you back an unexposed horse they either normally make the shake up or are tailed off like Ulis De Vassy was here. That's the punt you take, we move on!

Golden Chieftain - 10/1 Unplaced
I really really fancied this horse! Everything about it smelt right, having backed the horse on Friday afternoon at 10/1, when I looked at the prices this morning to see the Tizzard horse at 4/1 I thought I was onto something. It was an odd race. He hit a fence badly halfway down the back on their last circuit and lost his place as a result. Joe Tizzard appeared to give him an easy time afterwards, he ran on in the end to finish 5th staying on past tired horses.  It was an eye-catching run in that it felt like a prep run for a future race? I think so, perhaps the Welsh National. Watch this one closely!

Other horses on the day that I took note of were: Handazan, Regal Encore, Far West and Rigidity.

Rigidity

The Tim Vaughan trained Rigidity ran an eye-catching race yesterday in a 2 mile novice chase at Hexham. He is one of my 10 really dark horses to follow this year and it was decent effort on ground that was far from ideal. Although it was very heavy, he finished 5th and jumped pretty nicely. I think it was a nice sighter for him and there is more to come in the future.

suggested Handazan was a 'sit and watch' horse and that ended up being the case. He was very novicy at his hurdles and appears to lack experience, I suspect the run will have done him the world of good. Give him time because he may progress with more experience to be quite smart. My thoughts on Handazan can be found at  http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html.

Handazan's conqueror, Far West from the Paul Nicholls stable, looked to be very smart too. The soft ground at Chepstow seemed to be to his liking as his action would suggest that he prefers some cut in the ground. His previous experience over hurdles was obviously to his benefit. Where Handazan's jumping was scratchy, this horse was foot perfect and he simply  'out-jumped' the Alan King trained colt. Far West looks like he may progress into a really smart horse and you would expect him to compete in top quality novice hurdles later in the year. He excites me.

Anthony Honeyball - Can Regal Encore Put Him On The Map?

If anyone missed the bumper at Chepstow, you missed out big time! The Anthony Honeyball trained Regal Encore absolutely hacked up. Jesus! He was mightily impressive. Recently purchased by JP Mcmanus, the mount of AP McCoy was simply far far far too good for his rivals. Rebecca Curtis ran Amifunnyyet in the race which she interestingly rates as one of the best horses she's ever had, whilst Paul Nicholls was represented by Mcllhatton in what was a relatively hot bumper. The winner looks something extra special though and has the potential to be one of the best bumper horses around this year. His next target may be the bumper at the Open Meeting as Honeyball wants to test the gelding in better company, looking further ahead he will be aimed at the championship bumpers in the spring. I think it's brilliant that a small trainer like Anthony Honeyball has a horse of this calibre in their yard, it's also brilliant the horse is owned by a big owner, it can only be good for racing. Regal Encore may be the horse to put Anthony Honeyball on the map, after today you would suggest he will! If you haven't seen the race, you need to get onto the Attheraces website and have a watch!! Immediately.

Any comments or views? Contact me through twitter: @JoshRWDown

13/10/12 Super Saturday Selections

Newmarket:

2:20 - Middle Park
Selection - Reckless Abandon (pictured above)
I have backed him at 2-1 and the weight of my money has already contracted the price to15-8! G Mosse comes over from France to retain the ride and gets on well with the horse. I know the Marco Botti camp are sweet on the chance of Moojaahim and feel there is improvement to come from the Prix Morny. Although he didn't get the run of the race in the Prix Morny, whereas Reckless Abandon did, I still think Clive Cox's colt would of had his measure and I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow. If Reckless Abandon was a Godolphin or Ballydoyle horse he would surely be shorter than 15-8 and I think on merit he deserves to be a shorter price than he is.

2:55 - Dewhurst
Selection - Dawn Approach
The best 2 year colt this term, he looks to cement himself as the top European 2 year colt tomorrow. His sire New Approach produces sperm in the shape of the £ sign and it appears his offspring are carrying the chromosomes which have won the derby in 2008. He will be very difficult to beat tomorrow, I have no worries about him handling the ground tomorrow as his sire won on soft.

3:35 - Cesarewitch
Selection -  Countrywide Flame (pictured above)
Fits most of the trends. An example of a few are: Drawn in stall 7, 7/10 winners drawn in stall 12 or below. Carries 8-5, 7/10 carried below 9-1. Won over 2 miles, 10/10 won over at least 1m 6f. 2006 Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City followed that up with a win in the Cesarewitch for a famous double, this horse looks to replicate that feat this year. He will handle the ground and he is a certainty to stay. Carrying 8-5 is an absolute steal and he is pricewises ante-post tip, I expect a bold show.

Chepstow:

1:55 - Juvenile Hurdle
Selection - Handazan
Those of you who read my blog yesterday will know how highly Alan King rates this horse. He is unraced over hurdles, but the ground is a concern. He would prefer it with less juice but he has won on heavy on the flat. He is probably a 'sit and watch' horse tomorrow, but he should be race fit having been on the go through the summer for John Oxx. Please revert to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html for further details.

3:00 - 2 mile 3 furlong Novice Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay (pictured above)
One of my horses to follow for the coming season. I think he will rank very highly in the pecking order of staying novice chasers this term and this looks like a nice starting point. I expect him to be too good for his rivals tomorrow. The ground will be perfect and although the trip may be a bit on the short side, it will take some getting around Chepstow tomorrow and a stamina test should be right up this fella's street. I don't understand why he's not odds on? If England were value at 1/100 against San Marino tonight, then this horse is definitely value at even money.

3:40 - 2 mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Hinterland (pictured above)
Prep run before a novice chase campaign later on in the season. Paul Nicholls must think he is still on a winnable mark off 141 and the trainer has a brilliant record in the race. He obviously targets this race as an early season money spinner. Classy animals such as Domtaline, Escort'men and Gwanako have all won this race for team Ditcheat. Although he has to give almost a stone to the rest of the field, he still should be too classy for the others. I think the main danger will be the Donald McCain horse, but at a massive price I think the Twiston-Davies horse Red Riverman could have an each way chance. He receives 24 pounds from Hinterland. Sneaking in the bottom end off 10-4 he could still be unexposed and his trainer is red hot at the moment!

4:10 - 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ulis De Vassey
Winner on heavy at Bangor. Very unexposed 4 year old who receives weight all around running off 10-4. Sneaking in at the bottom end off a mark of 112, I'm willing to take a punt on this Nick Williams runner. Last 5 winners all carried below 11-2 and were all aged 4 or 5. Can't say much more because I don't know much about the horse to be honest! lol. I think the main danger may come from Carrigmorna King. He brings the best from into the race when he was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund Final at Sandown.

4:45 - 3 mile Handicap Chase
Selection - Golden Chieftain
Winner on soft and will appreciate the stamina test. Was rated 140 over hurdles and could still be well in over fences off a mark of 129. Last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less and were aged 6-8. Golden Chieftain carries 10-13 and is aged 7, he doesn't quite fit the trend but isn't far away and is still relatively unexposed. As for the others, Le Beau Bai has a superb Chepstow record and will love the ground, but the trip may be on the sharp side and I doubt he will be fully tuned up for this race on his reappearance. I fear Rangitoto the most as he is the other unexposed horse in the race and Paul Nicholls is bang in form. The Twiston-Davies yard are also in good form and saddle Cootehill , but I think he's in the hands of the handicapper off a mark of 137 and the unexposed horses should have his measure.

Any questions or comments? Contact me through twitter: 

@JoshRWDown

A Cheltenham Festival 5 Timer? Or A Burst Bubble?

'The Greatest Show On Turf'' could be a unique renewal in 2013. Golden Miller is the solitary member of the 5 times winner club at the famous meeting, but in 2013 two horses will descend on Prestbury Park looking to be inducted into the immortal club. Barring any accidents, Big Bucks and Quevega will hopefully return in search for their 5th victories in the World Hurdle and Mares Hurdle respectively. The question that will be posed time and time again between now and March is: Are their 5th victories really a formality ? The answer, put simply, is maybe.

Big Bucks:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=658928#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Isn't really a lot that I can say about Big Bucks that hasn't been said before. Undisputabely the best 3 mile hurdler there has ever been, Big Bucks will be looking to extend his 17 run unbeaten streak this season. His route to the Festival has always begun at Newbury on Hennessy day and you would imagine you would see the gelding turn up there again this year for his seasonal reappearance. The Longwalk Hurdle at Ascot has normally been his next stepping stone on route to the Festival. In 2011, he went from the Longwalk at Ascot in December straight to the Festival as a fresh horse. However, last year, his owners the Stewart Family, decided to take their chance in the Cleeve Hurdle between Ascot and the Festival and whether they do this again this year will be interesting. With all his wins achieved in such a nonchalant manner, we don't really know whether the run in the Cleeve Hurdle had been to Big Bucks assistance in sharpening him up or whether he runs better as a fresh horse. To be honest, I really don't think it matters too much! He's far too good for his rivals however he feels within himself! His 4 victories in the World and Liverpool Hurdles have been superb. Paul Nicholls has said that he always seems better in himself at Aintree and his performance on the track would reflect that. Year on year he simply p***es all over them at Liverpool. Does the flat track suit him better than the stiffer test he faces at Cheltenham. Once again, I don't think it really matters. He is as close to a machine you'll get in horse racing. Actually that's a lie. Frankel is a machine! Are there any competitors that may have his measure this year? Peddlers Cross will be an interesting recruit to the 3 mile hurdle ranks having had a disappointing novice chase campaign last year. He is a Champion Hurdle runner-up and could make Big Bucks sweat when at his best, but he has never been tested beyond 2 mile 5 furlongs. He will need to out-stay Big Bucks to beat him, but what is Big Bucks' greatest quality? He stays. Maybe he could pose more of a threat on more of a speed track such as Aintree, but Aintree is where Big Bucks has been seen in his best light over the years so I doubt that's an option either. Otherwise, I don't think there is anything else that can sniff him. As I speak I'm watching his World Hurdle win from last year and I'm already picturing him doing the same again this year. At the end of this campaign expect his unbeaten run to stand at 21, maybe 22 if he runs in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Quevega:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=699447#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

As Quevega walked back into the winners enclosure after her first victory in the Mares Hurdle at the 2009 Festival her owners and Willie Mullins were buzzing with excitement, fantasising over a potential Champion Hurdle tilt in 2010. To their bemusement Ruby Walsh, sitting aboard the mare, said: 'why not this race next year?' It's a good job he did say that. Otherwise I wouldn't be writing this blog looking forward to the mares attempt at a 5th Mares Hurdle win in 2013! Having beaten off Voler La Vedette and Sparky May the quality in the mares division this year are looking thin on the ground once again. I think the only horse that can beat Quevega, is Quevega. Willie Mullins was public in saying a couple of years ago that she's a bit of a temperamental so and so and doesn't like having to do too much work in the course of a season. She's obviously not the easiest horse to train. This is reflected by the mare only appearing twice in a season, once at Cheltenham and then at the Punchestown Festival. I think she spends the other 10 months of the year in a field having it all her own way. Willie Mullins obviously knows her better than anyone else and he know's all the tricks to keep her happy. In my opinion Quevega strikes me as one of those horses who will turn around one day and say: 'I really cba any more.' A bit like the Milton Harris trained Chaninbar did two years ago. I have a niggling doubt that the moment isn't far away and I would have thought she has a relatively large stud value tag around her neck too. She can't have too many more seasons in her and it wouldn't surprise me whether this next season is her last. Even money ante-post for the Mares Hurdle doesn't represent any value to me and I would be very wary if you are thinking about backing her. Although she will no doubt be in my treble on  Champion Hurdle day next year if she turns up, I just don't trust her.

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