How could I leave him out? Without doubt the greatest staying hurdler there has ever been. Although his victories are never by margins that stick in the memory, he looked as good as ever in the spring when claiming the World Hurdle at Cheltenham and then the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree. It is hard to argue that he won't win the 2013 renewals next year. With potential high class staying novice hurdlers from 2012 such as Fingal Bay and Boston Bob probably heading novice chasing next year, there seems to be little new competition that may be a threat to Big bucks when he looks to extend his 17 race winning streak. At the age of 10 when the World Hurdle comes around in 2013, some may say he is heading into the latter stages of his career. However, I doubt this will be too much of a hindrance to the gelding and I would expect him to still be plenty strong enough to claim a 5th World Hurdle and subsequently a 5th Liverpool Hurdle next Spring. This should be in addition to winning the: Newbury Hurdle on Hennessy day, the Longwalk Hurdle and potentially the Cleeve Hurdle on Festival trials day in January. I assume 2013 will be another year when he truly cements his dominance on the 3 mile hurdle division.
2. Sprinter Sacre
The most exciting novice chaser I can recall in my relatively short horse racing following. Unbeaten over fences, this alpha-male of a horse defeated his rivals in a manner that can only be described as 'spanked'. The resident of Seven Barrows stables is a 2-1 ante-post favourite for next years 2 mile Queen Mother Champion Chase and in my eyes, rightly so. Described as an 'aeroplane' last year, his jockey Barry Geraghty was certainly a 'pilot' in the geldings victories effectively just doing the steering. The rest was left to Sprinter Sacre , and jeez he delivered! The highlights of his novice campaign were taking the Arkle Trophy at the Festival in March and following up this with the Maghull Novice Chase at Aintree. Both looking what my mate would describe as 'The Badgers Nadgers'. Being a new-comer to the championship 2 mile chase division places an element of doubt that inexperience could be his undoing. However, the competition he will face is either ageing in the case of Sizing Europe or quite frankly not good enough in the case Gauvain. His stable mate and last years winner of the Queen Mother Finians Rainbow also looks like being stepped up in trip for a crack at the King George. Consequently, I don't consider his level of inexperience to be a problem. Look at the way he demolished the 2 mile seasoned chasers in the Game Spirit at Newbury in February for example. The only thing that can surely beat Sprinter Sacre, is Sprinter Sacre. This horse is a banker.
3. Sir Des Champs
Long thought as a future Gold Cup horse by his trainer Willie Mullins, this Gigginstown owned gelding is already ante-post favourite for the 2013 renewal at 6-1. 2012 was a progressive year for Sir Des Champs. Starting off in relatively serene surroundings at Fairyhouse, two more novice chase wins followed before the highlight of his season came when winning the 2m 5f Jewson Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He powered away up the hill from Champion Court that day like a really good horse. I distinctively remember Dad backing him at 14-1 ante-post which bought the family a nice Chinese that evening. The peking duck was yummy as ever! What made it even more tasty was that I had a little dabble on the Irish raider too! Looking forward to this year, I expect to see Sir Des Champs putting up bold displays in the championship 3 mile chases across the Irish Sea. I feel his main quality his the ability to stay and jump in a manner that doesn't exert too much energy. This could be crucial if he is to challenge for the Gold Cup in March as there are many rivals who will be around to pick up the pieces. These horses could be Bobs Worth, Long Run or The Giant Bolster. For those of you who have noticed I haven't included Flemenstar in this summary, to be honest with you, I was torn to choose between him and Sir Des Champs. I sided with the latter due to feeling he will get every yard of the 3 mile trips he will be covering this year whilst Flemenstar hasn't gone beyond 2m 4f in his career as of yet. I feel Sir Des Champs will out-stay Flemenstar. Simple as that. Although I have very little confidence behind this theory. Nonetheless, my gut instinct tells me that Sir Des Champs will fund many more takeaways this winter in the Down household!
4. Hurricane Fly
This entrant at no.4 doesn't need much of an introduction. The apple of his trainer Willie Mullins eye, his constant reiteration of the brilliance his stable star is capable of was vindicated in the 2011 Champion Hurdle and more recently in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The latter performance was rated as 'his best ever' by Mullins and it seemed, on that form, the defence of his crown at the Festival was a formality. It obviously wasn't with the 8 year old finishing 3rd. He then reappeared at the Punchestown Festival to defend his Rabobank Champion Hurdle where he won in a style that was similar to his run in the Champion Hurdle. I'm not sure whether he was quite himself last spring, I going to attribute that to his brilliant win in the Irish Champion Hurdle taking more out of him than first thought. I am more than willing to give him another chance and I have no doubt there isn't a horse than can live with him in 2 mile hurdles when he his on top form. I don't consider last years Supreme Novice to be the best we've seen and if that judgement proves to be correct then something like Cinders And Ashes surely can't be good enough to get the better of the Fly. Lets just hope horses racing equivalent of Ledley King arrives fit and healthy at all his intended targets!
5. Simonsig:
Cemented himself as the top novice hurdler over 2m 4f last term with two devastating victories at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. Nicky Henderson believes a drop back in trip would suit rather than a step up, as he feels Simonsig has a lot of natural speed which would be best utilised over the shorter 2 mile trip. His high cruising speed should assist him over 2 miles and help his jockey Barry Geraghty get his rivals off the bridle. Also his natural scope would also suggest that jumping a fence should not be an issue, in fact Henderson said the reason he ran over 2m 4f last term was to help his jumping as hurdles seemed to just 'get in the way'. Simonsig is definitely a horse for the ten to follow and is ante-post favourite for the Arkle at 3-1. This short price would suggest there is a lot of confidence behind the grey. I expect to see him competing in the top class novice chases this year and he is in my ten to follow principally as my ante-post selection for the Arkle in 2013.
6. Fingal Bay:
Campaigned at staying novice hurdles last year. Fingal Bay could not be faulted only losing in the Sefton at Aintree (prefers softer ground and interfered by fallen horse were adequate excuses) whilst also racking up wins in the Challow hurdle and at The Open Meeting. He is almost certain to be stepped-up to 3 miles which would suggest that either the RSA or the World Hurdle are potentially his main targets. To win those races the main characteristic that a horse requires, in such a grueling contest is to stay. In my opinion this is Fingal Bay's greatest attribute. An issue may be whether he goes novice chasing this year or delay the inevitable until 2013/2014. The dilemma Philip Hobbs faces is whether to take on Big Bucks (the greatest of them all!) in the World Hurdle and give the horse another year to mature and gain experience. Or whether to take a chance this year but then possibly leave the horse with less experience when he takes on the big boys in the high class staying chases the following year? In my view this horse is a top quality animal and will almost certainly be seen in Gold Cups of the future. The gelding is 10-1 ante-post favourite for the RSA and he is my likely winner of the race. An element of doubt about whether he will go novice chasing and a liking for some cut in the ground which has not been present at the Cheltenham Festival in recent times would worry me though. However, I feel he is a gamble worth taking as I feel he is top top class. When a trainer describes one of their horses as 'phenomenal' like Phillips Hobbs has, you take note and listen.
7. Hunt Ball:
The story of the 2011/2012 season, there isn't a lot I can say about Hunt Ball that hasn't already been said. The Anthony Knott owned gelding rose an astonishing 88 pounds in the weights last term, that's over 6 stone! I know some may argue that he can't improve much more and to be honest I agree with you. He proved he can compete with the top class 3 mile chasers at Aintree and he definitely appeared to stay. I think he is a horse who will relish a stamina test this year. He is in my ten to follow as my ante-post selection for the Hennessy at Newbury in November and then if things go well, he may well go to the Gold Cup. I hope this horse can collect the bonus points on offer for these races. I feel he meets a few trends the Hennessy has created. Apart from the fact the race seems a logical place for the 7 year old start his campaign. The fact he is 7 is to his advantage, 5 winners in the last 10 years being aged 7. Also 6 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 142-158, Hunt Ball currently has a rating of 157. I think there is potential the handicapper hasn't got him quite yet. He is at least as good as, or better than, Medermit and Burton Port for example. They are rated 167 and 166 respectively. I still think he may be a few pounds to the good! Is the dream still on for the 2013 Gold Cup? Could we have another winners enclosure classic like last year? If his enigmatic owner Anthony Knott (pictured above riding his horse back into the winners enclosure with jockey Nick Schofield at Wincanton) is around you can almost guarantee we will. 'B****r the cows!' Comment of the year.
8. Rebel Fitz
It is always questionable where the Galway Hurdle winner will venture after their success in the summer and more importantly, whether they will have any more success in the coming winter. Looking at previous winners such as Moon Dice and Oslot, the Galway Hurdle race win has been their last due to their rise in the weights. Consequently, like Oslot, Moon Dice may have to head novice chasing in search of races where he can still be competitive. But, and this a big but, this years winner in Rebel Fitz looks to be something a bit special. The gelding turned up at Cork later in August this year in another handicap hurdle, where at a starting price of 4-11 favourite, he promptly swept aside solid handicappers such as Sailors Warn and Fosters Cross. The starting price told you the story, they knew! From the relatively unknown yard of Michael Winters, Rebel Fitz has progressed to a rating of 155. If you look at the ratings he is much higher in the weights than Moon Dice was after his Galway hurdle win, however I think this gelding may well be a bit better than a handicapper such as Moon Dice. In my opinion this horse has so much progression to come that he could be a championship racehorse. Don't be surprised if you see this animal appear in the Champion Hurdle next year. It may sound a bit optimistic but there's something that stinks about this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if he's still well in off a mark of 155.
9. Salut Flo
I may be criticised for thinking through my heart rather than my head here, whereby the 33-1 I missed ante-post for the Byrne Group Plate at the festival is still haunting me. I have put him in my ten to follow principally for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November where I think he has a fantastic chance. Winning the 2m 5f contest would provide me with some of those precious maximum 25 bonus points. For those of you who want to hear why I think the gelding has a real chance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup please refer to my post 'The Paddy Power Gold Cup Winner' (http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/the-2012-paddy-power-gold-cup-winner.html). If you haven't already done so. The plan is to substitute this horse after the December Gold Cup race at Cheltenham. Will handicap mark will have rocketed skywards following two victories! I will be replacing him with Finian's Rainbow when his main target the King George comes around on Boxing Day.
10. Boston Bob
My judgement of Boston Bob is much the same as the majorities. I believe he was the best novice hurdler in Ireland last year and his defeat in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival came as a bit of a shock. He was the centrepiece of my Union Jack bet that day, although his defeat didn't cost me too much money as I didn't have the best of Gold Cup days. The fact he was my centrepiece displayed I thought he had a great chance. He just seemed to run a bit 'flat', he ran well but not quite as well as we know he can. His performance was similar to Hurricane Fly's run in the Champion Hurdle, just not quite 100%. Coincidently, they both won on that day at Leopardstown when conditions were horrendous. Boston Bob probably had more of a slog than was first thought and I think it may have taken quite a lot out of him. He was expected to move onto Punchestown after Cheltenham where he would get his novice hurdle campaign back on track, but he was not entered. His trainer Willie Mullins' explanation was that he thought Boston Bob had done enough for the year. I interpreted this as something was not quite right and whatever it was that meant he wasn't 100% at Cheltenham was still present later on in the spring. I think the plan is to go novice chasing this winter. He will almost certainly be aimed at the RSA and other staying novice chases in Ireland. I would imagine jumping a fence will not be a problem as he was athletic over his hurdles and he has the scope to jump a fence. He showed he stays last year when he and the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze out-stayed their rivals in the Albert Bartlett in March. I expect many bold displays from Boston Bob this year. However if things don't go to plan I would imagine I will substitute this horse with a staying chaser with the 'National' races coming around later in the season.
Cemented himself as the top novice hurdler over 2m 4f last term with two devastating victories at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. Nicky Henderson believes a drop back in trip would suit rather than a step up, as he feels Simonsig has a lot of natural speed which would be best utilised over the shorter 2 mile trip. His high cruising speed should assist him over 2 miles and help his jockey Barry Geraghty get his rivals off the bridle. Also his natural scope would also suggest that jumping a fence should not be an issue, in fact Henderson said the reason he ran over 2m 4f last term was to help his jumping as hurdles seemed to just 'get in the way'. Simonsig is definitely a horse for the ten to follow and is ante-post favourite for the Arkle at 3-1. This short price would suggest there is a lot of confidence behind the grey. I expect to see him competing in the top class novice chases this year and he is in my ten to follow principally as my ante-post selection for the Arkle in 2013.
6. Fingal Bay:
Campaigned at staying novice hurdles last year. Fingal Bay could not be faulted only losing in the Sefton at Aintree (prefers softer ground and interfered by fallen horse were adequate excuses) whilst also racking up wins in the Challow hurdle and at The Open Meeting. He is almost certain to be stepped-up to 3 miles which would suggest that either the RSA or the World Hurdle are potentially his main targets. To win those races the main characteristic that a horse requires, in such a grueling contest is to stay. In my opinion this is Fingal Bay's greatest attribute. An issue may be whether he goes novice chasing this year or delay the inevitable until 2013/2014. The dilemma Philip Hobbs faces is whether to take on Big Bucks (the greatest of them all!) in the World Hurdle and give the horse another year to mature and gain experience. Or whether to take a chance this year but then possibly leave the horse with less experience when he takes on the big boys in the high class staying chases the following year? In my view this horse is a top quality animal and will almost certainly be seen in Gold Cups of the future. The gelding is 10-1 ante-post favourite for the RSA and he is my likely winner of the race. An element of doubt about whether he will go novice chasing and a liking for some cut in the ground which has not been present at the Cheltenham Festival in recent times would worry me though. However, I feel he is a gamble worth taking as I feel he is top top class. When a trainer describes one of their horses as 'phenomenal' like Phillips Hobbs has, you take note and listen.
7. Hunt Ball:
The story of the 2011/2012 season, there isn't a lot I can say about Hunt Ball that hasn't already been said. The Anthony Knott owned gelding rose an astonishing 88 pounds in the weights last term, that's over 6 stone! I know some may argue that he can't improve much more and to be honest I agree with you. He proved he can compete with the top class 3 mile chasers at Aintree and he definitely appeared to stay. I think he is a horse who will relish a stamina test this year. He is in my ten to follow as my ante-post selection for the Hennessy at Newbury in November and then if things go well, he may well go to the Gold Cup. I hope this horse can collect the bonus points on offer for these races. I feel he meets a few trends the Hennessy has created. Apart from the fact the race seems a logical place for the 7 year old start his campaign. The fact he is 7 is to his advantage, 5 winners in the last 10 years being aged 7. Also 6 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 142-158, Hunt Ball currently has a rating of 157. I think there is potential the handicapper hasn't got him quite yet. He is at least as good as, or better than, Medermit and Burton Port for example. They are rated 167 and 166 respectively. I still think he may be a few pounds to the good! Is the dream still on for the 2013 Gold Cup? Could we have another winners enclosure classic like last year? If his enigmatic owner Anthony Knott (pictured above riding his horse back into the winners enclosure with jockey Nick Schofield at Wincanton) is around you can almost guarantee we will. 'B****r the cows!' Comment of the year.
8. Rebel Fitz
It is always questionable where the Galway Hurdle winner will venture after their success in the summer and more importantly, whether they will have any more success in the coming winter. Looking at previous winners such as Moon Dice and Oslot, the Galway Hurdle race win has been their last due to their rise in the weights. Consequently, like Oslot, Moon Dice may have to head novice chasing in search of races where he can still be competitive. But, and this a big but, this years winner in Rebel Fitz looks to be something a bit special. The gelding turned up at Cork later in August this year in another handicap hurdle, where at a starting price of 4-11 favourite, he promptly swept aside solid handicappers such as Sailors Warn and Fosters Cross. The starting price told you the story, they knew! From the relatively unknown yard of Michael Winters, Rebel Fitz has progressed to a rating of 155. If you look at the ratings he is much higher in the weights than Moon Dice was after his Galway hurdle win, however I think this gelding may well be a bit better than a handicapper such as Moon Dice. In my opinion this horse has so much progression to come that he could be a championship racehorse. Don't be surprised if you see this animal appear in the Champion Hurdle next year. It may sound a bit optimistic but there's something that stinks about this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if he's still well in off a mark of 155.
9. Salut Flo
I may be criticised for thinking through my heart rather than my head here, whereby the 33-1 I missed ante-post for the Byrne Group Plate at the festival is still haunting me. I have put him in my ten to follow principally for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November where I think he has a fantastic chance. Winning the 2m 5f contest would provide me with some of those precious maximum 25 bonus points. For those of you who want to hear why I think the gelding has a real chance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup please refer to my post 'The Paddy Power Gold Cup Winner' (http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/the-2012-paddy-power-gold-cup-winner.html). If you haven't already done so. The plan is to substitute this horse after the December Gold Cup race at Cheltenham. Will handicap mark will have rocketed skywards following two victories! I will be replacing him with Finian's Rainbow when his main target the King George comes around on Boxing Day.
10. Boston Bob
My judgement of Boston Bob is much the same as the majorities. I believe he was the best novice hurdler in Ireland last year and his defeat in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival came as a bit of a shock. He was the centrepiece of my Union Jack bet that day, although his defeat didn't cost me too much money as I didn't have the best of Gold Cup days. The fact he was my centrepiece displayed I thought he had a great chance. He just seemed to run a bit 'flat', he ran well but not quite as well as we know he can. His performance was similar to Hurricane Fly's run in the Champion Hurdle, just not quite 100%. Coincidently, they both won on that day at Leopardstown when conditions were horrendous. Boston Bob probably had more of a slog than was first thought and I think it may have taken quite a lot out of him. He was expected to move onto Punchestown after Cheltenham where he would get his novice hurdle campaign back on track, but he was not entered. His trainer Willie Mullins' explanation was that he thought Boston Bob had done enough for the year. I interpreted this as something was not quite right and whatever it was that meant he wasn't 100% at Cheltenham was still present later on in the spring. I think the plan is to go novice chasing this winter. He will almost certainly be aimed at the RSA and other staying novice chases in Ireland. I would imagine jumping a fence will not be a problem as he was athletic over his hurdles and he has the scope to jump a fence. He showed he stays last year when he and the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze out-stayed their rivals in the Albert Bartlett in March. I expect many bold displays from Boston Bob this year. However if things don't go to plan I would imagine I will substitute this horse with a staying chaser with the 'National' races coming around later in the season.
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