Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 4

Day 3 turned out to be one of those days. 5 of the 7 races were won by horses at 14/1 or bigger, the blog didn't have a great day, although Big Shu got me out of trouble in the Cross Country. On to day 4, I'm afraid I only have time to put up my selections with no analysis so lets hope they go much better than yesterday!

Triumph Hurdle
Rolling Star 2pt Win @7/2 various
Kashmir Peak 1pt E/W @16/1 Betvictor/Stan James

County Hurdle
Princeton Plains 1.5pt E/W @16/1 Ladbrokes
Shadow Catcher 1pt E/W @25/1 Paddy Power/William Hill

Albert Bartlett
African Gold 2pt Win @13/2 various

Gold Cup
Sir Des Champs - previously advised - @7/1
Sir Des Champs 2pt Win @9/2 Paddy Power

Foxhunters
Salsify - 3pt Win @100/30 Paddy Power

Martin Pipe
Village Vic 1pt E/W @12/1 Ladbrokes/William Hill
Art Professor 1pt E/W @28/1 Betvictor

Grand Annual
Viva Colonia 1pt E/W @16/1 Sportingbet
Shooters Wood 1pt E/W @20/1 various

Cheers,

Josh

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 3

Day 2 was a much better day for the blog. Tofino Bay was unlucky to be caught close home by Back In Focus being left alone 2 out meant he possibly idled in front, although he was entitled to get tired. I had him each way though so all was not lost. Godsmejudge also ran a fantastic race to take third and secure some more each way money. Boston Bob was unlucky to come down at the last when in front, looking to have the race at his mercy, although eventual winner Lord Windermere wasn't doing a lot in front and may have won with something in hand. The Coral Cup was a bit of a disaster. Milord battled well to sneak into 4th for the each-way money, I also backed Flaxen Flare on course at 25/1 having seen him drift throughout the day, I'm just sorry I couldn't flag him up on here in the morning! Regal Encore found one too good in the bumper which was a little frustrating but he's a serious prospect for next year.

I'm afraid I haven't got much time tonight having recently got home from Cheltenham and have work tomorrow, therefore I won't be able to go into any of my selections in depth. I can only apologise.

Jewson

Captain Conan represents value at 13/2

Over 2 1/2 miles I feel Dynaste will be very hard to beat. Although at 6/4 I'm willing to take him on when you take into account his form has tailed off in the spring in the past. I was going to take him on with Texas Jack whose form in the P J Moriarty was comprehensively franked in yesterdays RSA by Lord Windermere, Lyreen Legend and Boston Bob. However, I have seen CAPTAIN CONAN has drifted out towards 13/2 and that is just too tempting. I am unconvinced how much Aupcharlie finds off the bridle so therefore 5/1 is too short. Module may be found wanting now up in grade.

Advice - Captain Conan 2pt Win @13/2 Paddy Power/William Hill

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Lives up to it's reputation as a fiercely competitive again this year. Market leader Sam Winner is Paul Nicholls' banker of the week but is far far too short at 4/1. I fancy JETSON to provide stern opposition back on his favoured better ground. He was fancied to go well last year before being balloted out and is fancied to go well this year, Robbie Power is keen on his chance, he has been well backed due to the main tipsters flagging him up, he was my main fancy when the 5 day declarations come out so the fact his price has shortened is frustrating. This is so open that there is some each way value lurking around. STONEMASTER has been running well in some of these qualifiers without getting his head in front, notably here in November. He should go well again on some better ground and can build on his 6th in last years Coral Cup. ACCORDING TO TREV has been waiting for some better ground, although he is a novice and may lack experience, he won well here in October beating the highly touted Our Vinnie in the process and should see out the trip well. 140 looks high enough but I don't think he will be far away. Shutthefrontdoor has been laid out for the race but looks high enough in the weights off 144, Close House should go well for David Pipe.

Advice - Jetson 1pt Win @10 various
Stonemaster 1pt E/W @16/1 various
According To Trev 1pt E/W @Betvictor/Paddy Power

Ryanair Chase
There's plenty in here I feel have claims, but none are as strong as FIRST LIEUTENANT who the more I look at, the more I like. His form this year in the Lexus and Hennessy is absolutely rock solid and he should take a lot of beating. He has strong festival form and the drop back in trip is expected to suit having not quite got home over 3 miles and beyond this season. Champion Court should go well back at his favourite track, like many I think he lacks the x-factor to compete at the very very top level. Cue Card won't get his own way upfront, his jumping has tended to go to pot when contested for the lead and that's enough to sway him out of favour at 7/2. Last years winner Riverside Theatre goes well fresh but has been out of form since that win last year, where he didn't win like a horse firing on all cylinders anyway. Menorah has strong each-way claims but is a bit inconsistent. This appears to be his ideal trip and his Cheltenham record is also good, but he lacks value at 7/1. Albertas Run would be a dream winner, the drying ground is a plus but this is a tough ask having been off for a year and for a 12 year old. For Non Stop has been freshened up by a break but I think he's a notch or two below this standard.

Advice - First Lieutenant 3pt Win @5/2 various

World Hurdle
Use this link to view my ante-post World Hurdle thoughts 

Byrne Group Plate
According to the market Ballynagour has got this wrapped up already, I am willing to take him on though. His wasn't been able to put two runs together when trained in France and that's a worry having been raised 20lb for his last win. Although he does remind me of stable mate and last years winner Salut Flo, he is worth opposing at 4/1 in this ultra competitive handicap. Cantlow has been laid out for this, novices have an ok record in the race and he would pose the biggest threat to Ballynagour if his jumping stands up. The value in his price has all but gone though. I like a few in here at bigger prices. DIVERS has ran well at the last two festivals and is 7lb lower than is good 4th in this last year, the drying ground is a plus and 18/1 is too big. POQUELIN is another who will appreciate the better ground having ran ok in unfavoured poor ground this season. He is a real course specialist who is gradually falling down the handicap to a mark of 155, Harry Derham takes of another 5lb so off a mark of 150 I think he has decent each way claims.

Advice - Divers 1.5pt E/W @18/1 Bet365
Poquelin 1pt E/W @25/1 various

Kim Muir
This race has acted as a stepping stone for horses heading to the National in previous years. I have long been a fan of ROMANESCO since he was an unlucky faller here in October, he has run well throughout the season in Ireland in competitive handicap chases and comes here still on the upgrade. I find his purchase by Giggenstown is very interesting and the booking of Nina Carberry is a plus. I have backed him at 20/1 ante-post, he has shortened up considerably since due to being chosen as the pricewise selection. Super Duty has been heavily supported in recent weeks, he is a novice who is unexposed and has a good jockey booking in Derek O'Connor. It is likely he is ahead of his rating of 142 but at 5/1 he is too short for a horse lacking experience. ALFIE SHERRIN fits the mould of a national horse who did well last spring to win here and stay on into 3rd in the Irish Grand National. He is the choice of Mr Berry and must go close all things considered, he reminds me a lot of last years winner Sunnyhillboy. Prince Of Pirates is the Mcmanus 2nd string, he is progressive but has done all his winning on flat tracks in the hands of AP McCoy, he looks a tricky ride and I fear Nico De Boinville won't be able to get the best out of him like the champion jockey has been able to. Vesper Bell swerved the 4 miler to come here, he stays well and jumps well, he lacks course form but should go well. Galaxy Rock has the ability to go well if on a going day but that can't be guaranteed, the better ground will suit though. BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE was second last year off the same mark and will appreciate the better ground, Robbie McNamara retains the ride and he has strong festival form. He is each-way value at 25/1.

Advice - Previously Advised - Romanesco @20/1
Alfie Sherrin 2pt Win @10/1 Coral/Boylesports
Becauseicouldntsee 1pt E/W @25/1 Bet365/Boylesports

Cross Country
My thoughts for this race can be found by following this link

Cheers,

Josh

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 2

Day 1 was a slightly disappointing on the whole for the blog. Although banker of the week Simonsig got the job done in the Arkle, Grandouet, Knockara Beau and Carlito Brigante fell (latter effectively brought down) before they could land a blow, which was disappointing. My Tent Or Yours didn't find a lot off the bridle which was always a possibility, it's a shame as if he had won it would have made my festival. I'm afraid I don't have a lot of time tonight so won't be able to provide as much in depth analysis as I would like, but I will do as much as I can.

National Hunt Chase

Tofino Bay looks competitively priced

Stamina will be the name of the game here, it is something market leader Back In Focus has in abundance, Willlie Mullins' grade 1 winner will like the cut in the ground and the stiff track should be ideal. Patrick Mullins is booked to ride which is a plus but a lack of course form is a worry. TOFINO BAY is a grade 2 winner who has solid form in Ireland, he wouldn't want the ground too quick but will stay all day and Nina Carberry is an attractive jockey booking, on official ratings he only has 1lb to find with Back In Focus but is three times the price. Buddy Bolero is chaser on a steep upward curve, Jamie Codd is a top jockey booking and I expect him to feature in the shake up. Emperors Choice and Rival D'estruval are also improving chasers and are expected to appreciate a thorough stamina test, both jump well and have strong claims, one with course form is Highland Lodge but he has been disappointing since taking a poor novice chase in December and was dismounted at Exeter last time out. Rose Of The Moon comes back off a break and should be freshened up for this contest, the ground should suit but he's a bit short on what he has achieved, the same can be said for Hawkes Point, who will want every yard of this trip. Our Island was 8th last year, beaten 25 lengths, there's no reason to think he could any closer this year. GODSMEJUDGE has been advised ante-post at 7/1 to be placed, he jumps and relentlessly gallops. Those attributes are shared by many but he has proven he can do it in competitive handicap company at Warwick and his form is solid.

Advice - Previously Advised - Godsmejudge @7/1 to be placed
Tofino Bay - 1.5pt E/W @9/1 Paddy Power

Neptune Novices Hurdle

Pont Alexandre - Sets the standard

I believe this is between the three market leaders. Pont Alexandre is the Irish banker of the week, 6/4 reflects the level of confidence behind Willie Mullins' charge. The ground being slow will help as I would worry he may get swept off his feet on quicker ground, he will be prominent and Ruby Walsh has already said he will make as much use of him as possible. On the whole he has a lot in his favour and I expect him to provide the benchmark his rivals have to aim at, he sets the standard. If the stable believe he is that much better than yesterdays Supreme winner Champagne Fever, then 6/4 may be a reasonable price, although it's a little short for me. The New One is the best of the British challenge to these eyes, he has been impressive so far this year, being beaten only once when collared on the line here on trials day. Sam Twiston Davies went a touch early that day, using the geldings burst of speed too early, leaving him vulnerable close home. To accelerate like that in really poor ground was impressive, he has proven he acts at the track. The main worry is the bug going around the Twiston Davies yard, however this horse is reported to be fine and the stable went ok yesterday with Ackertac and Tour Des Champs. Taquin De Seuil won the Challow Hurdle well at Christmas in deep ground, before that he had stretched yesterdays Supreme runner-up My Tent Or Yours at Ascot over 2 miles, that was probably a bit sharp for him. He should go well but I don't rate him at the level of the two horses mentioned above. Chatterbox and Two Rockers are two completely unexposed types who come here with an unbeaten record, they aren't as highly tried as the market leaders and will need to step up to compete here. Rule The World beat yesterdays Supreme winner Champagne Fever easily at Naas earlier in the year (although the Champagne Fever was found to be wrong afterwards), that performance would see him go well here but he has a bit to find and 6/1 isn't any value.

Advice - No bet

RSA Chase

Boston Bob will appreciate
the stamina test

Dynaste swerving this for the Jewson has given the market a very different feel. Unioniste is fancied to improve for his first try at 3 miles at Newbury last time out where the slow pace didn't suit, a faster pace here where he can settle and use his deadly jumping to his advantage is expected to bring out vast improvement. He is the choice of Ruby Walsh who rarely gets 50/50 decisions wrong, leaving fellow market leader Boston Bob to be partnered by Paul Townend. My main reason to oppose him is only one 5 year old has won this race (Star De Mohaison), although there are similarities between him and Star De Mohaison I doubt whether he is a thorough stayer at such a young age. This race is a gruelling test, stamina is key so therefore the aforementioned BOSTON BOB takes preference. Although he has been far from impressive this year, he has been running over trips short of his optimum and been doing all his best work at the end of the race, an end to end gallop over 3 miles should be right up his street. The P J Moriarty he won by a whisker at Leopardstown has traditionally been the best trial for this contest in recent years, 3 of the last 4 winners had contested the grade 1 at Leopardstown, also the last 3 winners had all contested the previous years Albert Bartlett. His jumping is safe and steady rather than spectacular and I hope he will go one better this year following his 2nd to Brindisi Breeze last year. Hadrians Approach needs to dust up on his jumping to compete here, he was benefited by the slow pace when 2nd to Unioniste at Newbury and was consequently flattered to get as close as he did. He is not a thorough stayer to these eyes which is a no go area in the race. Goulanes has only had one chase start, although he stays well, I fear he will lack the necessary experience here, traditionally horses should have run at least 2 times, although the more experience the better. Houblon Des Obeaux and LYREEN LEGEND are both thorough stayers who have each-way claims, they both have jumped well so far in their careers and have plenty of experience, the latter ran well behind Boston Bob at Leopardstown which represents some of the best form in the race.

Advice - Boston Bob 2pt Win @7/2 Various
Lyreen Legend 1pt E/W @12/1 Betvictor

Queen Mother
Much like Quevega yesterday, it's pointless taking on Sprinter Sacre here because he will win.

Coral Cup
This is probably as tricky as it gets at the Festival. In terms of trends second season hurdlers have a good record in the race, in particular horses who haven't done anything to raise their marks significantly in that season. CASH & GO takes preference for Nicky Henderson, he was narrowly denied by Olofi in the Greatwood over 2 miles here in November and ran creditably in last months Betfair Hurdle. Nicky Henderson feels a step up to 2 1/2 miles is likely to suit and will extract some improvement, the stable did the same thing with Spirit River 3 years ago. Master Of The Sea can't keep winning, especially in what is one of the most competitive handicaps of the year. Abbey Lane should appreciate the step up in trip and is fancied to double up after his Boylesports Hurdle win, if he wasn't a Mullins horse he would be a bigger price though. UN BEAU MATIN is a progressive second season hurdler who has steadily been getting his act together. 3rd to On His Own in a grade 2 last time out, beaten 4 lengths represents decent form and I fancy him to be a little way ahead of his mark of 142. 16/1 is each-way value. I fear Pendra will lack the necessary experience, at bigger prices Tour D'Argent was running well in grade 2 chase at Kempton and could make the shake up now reverted back to hurdles. ORSIPPUS was 3rd in this 2 years ago off a 2lb higher mark, festival form is a strong positive and is each-way value at 50/1.

Advice - Cash & Go 1.5pt E/W @14/1 various
Un Beau Matin 1pt E/W @16/1 various
Orsippus 0.5pt E/W @50/1 Coral

Fred Winter
This is another real brain scrambler. I won't go into it in too much depth but I like MILORD each-way. Previously a smart flat performer (good enough to compete in German Derby), he has reverted to hurdles in good style, running well behind some very smart performers, notably Triumph Hurdle fancy Rolling Star. I also like ZAMDY MAN for a place but Saphir De Rheu has the most obvious win claims. He fits the trend having not won until his 3rd start and was very impressive at Taunton, although he hasn't gone unnoticed by the market.

Advice - Milord 1.5pt E/W @20/1 various
Zamdy Man 0.75pt E/W @25/1 various

Champion Bumper
This is a total guess up of a race with so many coming in here unbeaten and with lift reputations  I was very keen on Empiracle before he was ruled out with injury, if I had to pick one I would side with REGAL ENCORE. He is out of top sire Kings Theatre, whose off spring tend to want further in time, but they do need to stay to win this. On his sole run this term at Chepstow he destroyed a decent field and has been saved for this. Although that argument can be used for many of these, he represents strong connections and should have the perfect mix of speed and stamina for this contest, hopefully he doesn't get too revved up in the preliminaries.

Advice - 1pt Win Regal Encore @9/1 various

Cheers,

Josh

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 1

Supreme Novices Hurdle

My Tent Or Yours looks to snap
 the losing run of short priced
 favourites in the Supreme

I am sitting pretty here having backed current market leader MY TENT OR YOURS at 20/1 ante-post. His Betfair Hurdle romp was the most impressive performance so far this season and I expect him to go very very close here. Unlike other shorties who have been turned over in previous years, he has proved himself outside of novice company, also none were within 5lb of his current rating 162, he should also get a strong pace to help him settle. The main worry is a lack of course form, whether he will handle the undulations is unknown and there is every chance he may prefer a flat track. Jezki has been duffing up horses that are below this standard in small fields this season. On his only visit to Cheltenham, in last years bumper, he was a very disappointing 8th having not appeared to handle the hustle and bustle or undulations. All things considered others are preferred. Champagne Fever was turned over comprehensively by Jezki at Fairyhouse in December, he is the choice of Ruby Walsh and you would imagine he will try to burn them off from the front. The stiff track will suit and he jumps well, but I feel this trip is short of his optimum and he may be lacking pace when it matters, he is too short at 6/1. Dodging Bullets has won twice at the track this term in muddling races, he is absolutely rock solid but has been deserted by Ruby Walsh and acts best on better ground. I think he lacks the x-factor required to win this contest but if he continues to drift he will represent some each way value. River Maigue is another who would be suited by better ground, the form behind Dodging Bullets here in November leaves him with a bit to find, he has been friendless in the market having been as short at 8/1 around Christmas. Those aren't positive signs and he is best watched at 14/1. CAUSES OF CAUSES has something to prove after tailing off in the Betfair Hurdle. He gave the blog a great pay day when taking the Ladbroke earlier in the season and is one who could run into a place, his form is solid and he will handle the track. Cheltenian ran a cracker off a long break at Doncaster on his reappearance, the 2011 Champion Bumper winner looks to have a lot on his plate on only his second start over hurdles, the form of his bumper winner hasn't worked out too well either. Puffin Billy is a tall, gangly type who will appreciate a fence in time. He doesn't look to have grown into his body and I worry that lack of physical immaturity will count against him here, he probably won't want too much racing at this stage of his career and is coming back off a disappointing run at Exeter. He has never ran in as competitive race as this, wants further in time and to these eyes hasn't proven he finds a lot off the bridle yet, enough to prove for a 14/1 shot. UN ATOUT will undoubtedly want further in time and looks a serious novice chaser for next year. The son of Robin Des Champs (Sir Des Champs sire), hasn't come off the bridle in two hurdles starts this season and is a real unknown quantity, the ground will suit, he should be doing all his best work at the business end of race. Davy Russell put him up as one of the best horses he's ridden last week and at 7/1 he is one I wan't to keep on side.

Advice - Previosuly Advised -  My Tent Or Yours @20/1 
Un Atout 2pt Win @7/1 Ladbrokes/Stan James
Cause Of Causes 1pt E/W @40/1 Ladrokes

Arkle

Simonsig looks banker material

The ground conditions have gone against Overturn in recent days, although even if the race was run on good ground I couldn't see him getting close to SIMONSIG. I have no doubt that if Simonsig ran in this years Champion Hurdle he would vying for favouritism, he has pace to burn and his jumping has been flawless, although it hasn't been tested so far I don't have many worries that is will fall apart when under pressure. His preparation hasn't been ideal having only had two starts during a week in December, the experience may be lacking but class is there in abundance and more than makes up for it, he is also ground versatile. I have backed him ante-post at 3/1, he is my banker of the week (not including Sprinter Sacre), therefore 4/6 is still value. Overturn races one way and will go hard from the front, my opinion is he will set the race up for Simonsig, additionally Cheltenham isn't his ideal track. Arvika Ligeonniere will probably be the best of the rest but won't get his own way up front which is a negative, Majala will appreciate the ground but surely won't have the class, much like Tap Night who would also appreciate further. Baily Green and His Excellency have plenty to find.

Advice - Simonsig 4pt Win @4/6 Stan James

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Knockara Beau is admirably
 consistent at Cheltenham,
likes soft ground and stays well

Like many handicaps at the festival, there are strong trends that give you a great guide as how to approach these ultra competitive races. Only one horse in the last 10 years has carried over 11 stone, of those all were aged 7 to 10 and 7 had previous festival form. FRUITY O'ROONEY is an ante-post selection at 16/1, last years runner-up runs here off a 1lb lower mark, is rock solid, very consistent and has all the credentials of a horse who will make the shake up. Before Alfie Sherrin last year, the last 4 winners had been rated between 142 and 143, one horse falls into that category this year, KNOCKARA BEAU. Soft ground won't be an issue and his Cheltenham form is very good. Beaten 20 lengths in last years Gold Cup, he was 10 lengths clear of Midnight Chase but receives 10lb from that horse here. He stays all day and fits the mould of horse who has gone well in this race before, off a mark of 142 16/1 is good each-way value. Merry King represents Jonjo O'Neill who has won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race, he looks to have been laid out for the race having been narrowly denied in the Tommy Whittle and the the first time cheek pieces are of interest. Strong claims but main worry is he is only a 6 year old and may be lacking experience for such a competitive handicap, although he should stay well, but the value has gone from his price. Our Mick returns on a mark 1lb above when 3rd last year, he was unfortunate to unseat at Cheltenham on trials day and should go well, but is hasn't gone unnoticed and the value in his price has gone too. Loch Ba is another younger, unexposed horse whose jumping hasn't convinced but he did get it all together last time out at Newbury. Up 12lb for that win, he comes in here on a steep upward curve but 12/1 isn't any value to these eyes, no course form is also a negative. The Package went close in this 3 years ago but will probably pay the price for his impressive win at Wincanton at the start of the season. Quartz De Thaix, Midnight Chase, Planet Of Sound, Cloudy Too and Hey Big Spender are all to high in the handicap. Quantitativeeasing has been out of form and would prefer better ground, his stable mate Nadiya De La Vega steps up to 3 miles for the first time. She appears in the hands of the handicapper over 2 1/2 miles but it's feasible the extra trip could bring out some further improvement, 9/10 winners had won over 3 miles though. White Star Line doesn't jump well enough to justify his price, the form of his 2nd behind Hunt Ball last year was probably the weakest race of last years Festival. Munkerty Tunkerty is a horse on the upward curve having been a late starter to national hunt racing, I worry if a lack of experience may count against him. Pete The Feat and Jadanli have reached their levels, Tullamore Dew is on the downgrade and would prefer better ground, Tour Des Champs and Nuts N Bolts are progressive novices but have a bit to find and don't fit the vital trends.

Advice - Previously Advised - Fruity O'Rooney E/W @16/1
Knockara Beau 1.5pt E/W @16/1 Bet Victor

Champion Hurdle
Follow this think to read my thoughts on the feature race of day one.

Cross Country

Bostons Angel is the class act
 in the race, would prefer
 better ground but handled testing
 conditions over course
 and distance in  December

There is plenty of dead wood in this race, it is a tricky betting proposition as in the past they have crawled for 3 1/2 miles, before racing properly in the last half mile. Last year Balthazar King snapped a 7 year losing streak for the English but it may pay to follow the Irish again this year. Arabella Boy heads the market following his victory at Punchestown, he didn't appear to be in love with Cheltenham in December but does represent top trainer Enda Bolger and will love the soft ground, but 4/1 is a tad short. Outlaw Pete won the aforementioned December running of the Cross Country and should go well in the soft ground, he is high enough in the weights and I worry about his inexperienced jockey. BOSTONS ANGEL is my ante-post bet at 12/1, better ground would suit but he this unique contest has sharpened him up and he's a grade 1 winner in the past. He still represents some value at 9/1 so I would be happy to go in again. Uncle Junior has made the November renewal of this race his own in the last two years, he appeared to get behind on the quick ground last year so the slower ground should suit, two top weights have taken this but he's got to give at least 12lb all round, which will be difficult. There's no reason to think BIG SHU can't reverse placing with Arabella Boy from Punchestown, along with Any Currency and Saddlers Storm they all have chances at bigger prices in what can be a very unpredictable race.

Advice - Previously Advised - Bostons Angel @12/1
Big Shu 1pt E/W @12/1 Ladbrokes

Mares Hurdle
I'm not going to oppose Quevega for the sake of having a bet in the race so this is a watching race for me, hopefully we will see her equal Golden Millers record of winning at 5 consecutive festivals!

Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Carlito Brigante would prefer
 better ground but must go well

Colour Squadron is fancied as a well handicapped horse who can finally get it all together over fences to record his first victory, he has been knocking on the door this season and this smells of a handicap plot. His jumping hasn't impressed and therefore I'm happy to take him on at 6/1. Shangani looks to continue his winning ways and is strongly fancied to do so, Venetia Williams has had a brilliant season, placing horses of Shangani's mould excellently to take many handicaps. The price has gone at 8/1 though, his form doesn't justify that price. The Druids Nephew is an interesting horse. If you take a form line through Grandioso, a subsequent grade 2 winner who he beat by 10 lengths, he looks off an interesting mark at 135. Holds every chance with a lot in his favour. CARLITO BRIGANTE is absolutely thrown in on his best hurdles form, off 137 he is 18lb below his peak hurdle mark roughly and is 5lb below the mark when hacking up in the 2011 Coral Cup. He has loads of Cheltenham form and has plenty of chasing experience. He was bang there behind Dynaste two out in November, he was also giving the current Jewson favourite 8lb. The ground is a massive worry, he will want it better than it currently is but it he could potentially be so well in that it won't hinder too much. I'm hoping for a big run having backed him at 12/1 ante-post, Gordon Elliot has said he will be disappointed if he's not in the three. Radjhani Express is still high in the handicap following his runaway victory on Boxing Day, he looked held at Cheltenham on trials day. Hazy Tom hasn't jumped well enough this season to suggest he will be able to stay competitive here, Johns Spirit has the potential to go close if reproducing his good second to Katenko at Sandown although he is prone to mistakes. Vulcanite steps up to 2 1/2 miles for the first time, he hasn't convinced over fences this year, his form leaves him with a bit to find. Arthur's Pass looks to extend his winning streak to 4 and sneaks in off a light weight, both he and Ohio Gold have decent each-way claims if there jumping stands up now up in grade. Forgotten Gold and Restless Harry want further than this, whilst Howards Legacy and Fourjacks have been highly tried and aren't without a chance if coping with the hustle and bustle of a handicap.

Advice - Previously Advised - Carlito Brigante @12/1
The Druids Nephew 2pt Win @7/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh

World Hurdle 2013

World Hurdle 2013

Oscar Whisky heads the market at around 7/2. Two Aintree hurdle victories in consecutive years has proven he's the best hurdler over 2 1/2 miles around but does that mean he's the best 3 mile hurdler around? No, in my opinion. The Cleeve Hurdle proved to me he stays 3 miles, but not he stays 3 miles dourly. It stretches his stamina to the limit, which is a huge negative, this race is a thorough test of stamina with horses probably having to stay 3 1/2 miles to come out on top. Previous winners of the race: Big Bucks, Iris Gift, Baracouda and Inglis Drever were all dour stayers, rather than speed horses stepping up from 2 1/2 like Oscar Whisky. Nicky Henderson was convinced he wasn't right last year as he wasn't winning after 2 1/2 miles, I disagree with him, I feel he just got out-stayed up the hill having travelled well through the race. If he stayed thoroughly he would have got closer than he did last year, also he would have beaten Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's his class that has got him so close. He is a lay at 7/2.

REVE DE SIVOLA is my idea of this years winner. I have to admit after he won the Longwalk Hurdle in dismissive fashion I was still sceptical about his attitude. His chasing campaign left a lot to be desired, but to his credit the way he out-stayed Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve proved he is a real grinder and still has fire in the belly. Staying is his game, I see no reason why the form with Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve will be reversed on better ground. Although he has been impressive on soft ground this winter, I am confident he will act just as well on good ground. His record at the Festival is solid (2nd in 2010 Neptune on good to soft and 3rd in what is now the JLT handicap chase in 201, also on good to soft). Festival form is a huge plus and I can see him winning in the same fashion he has been this season. The water table is relatively high so any rain will soften the ground up to a greater extent than it has in previous years, even if it occurs we know it won't be an issue for Nick Williams charge. Richard Johnson should retain the ride having got on well with him this year and I see him as good value at 5/1 in places.

Monksland has been progressive this year, he reversed placings with Zaidpour when taking the 3 mile Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, after the latter had his measure in the Hattons Grace the previous month. Now a three time grade 2 winner, the step up to 3 miles at Leopardstown brought out some improvement and he displayed battling qualities that should see him go well here. He is a smooth traveller, slick hurdler, versatile in terms of ground and proved he handles the track when a slightly unlucky 3rd in last years Neptune Hurdle (hampered two out), all things considered he has all the makings of a big player. My worry is he is only a 6 year old and is very lightly raced, having had only 7 starts under rules I'm not sure he will be mentally or physically mature enough to compete in a contest which is historically a war of attrition. I also feel because he is lightly raced and is unexposed he is under-priced at 5/1, that's too short for a horse making only his second start over 3 miles in my eyes.

Peddlers Cross is still on the comeback trail from a disappointing chasing campaign last year. Defeat to Sam Winner in a jumpers bumper is easily excused after a ten month lay-off, however a two length beating of a horse rated 35lb inferior at Musselburgh has to go down as very disappointing. It's not an ideal preparation, although he could have been a bit rusty. If the horse of two years ago reappears he would have a chance (although the quality of his Champion Hurdle second is debatable), but that's the problem, he hasn't reproduced the form from that Champion Hurdle since. Personally, I don't think he enjoys his racing like he used to, the spark seems to have disappeared and I don't think anyone can put a finger as to why. At 10/1 he represents no value for a horse who has been out of form and carries too many question marks. Each-way claims at best.

2009 Aintree hurdle winner Solwhit is making the step up to 3 miles for the first time in his career after showing promise over 2 1/2 miles this season. He is a classy type who once went off 6/1 for a Champion Hurdle, I think he also has the stamina for 3 miles and the two in conjunction are big positives. A lack of Cheltenham form is a huge worry (only 6th in aforementioned Champion Hurdle), also this is going to be a gruelling contest where stamina will be tested to it's absolute limit, so I would have no interest in backing a horse who has never ran over 3 miles, the World Hurdle isn't won by 2 1/2 milers stepping up to 3 as a rule, the value in his price has gone.

Bog Warrior is probably the most appropriately named horse in training. All his best form has come with cut in the ground, if there was rain in the area you would fancy him at have leading claims to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles. If he reproduces the form that saw him easily dispose of Zaidpour in the Galmoy Hurdle he would have a squeak. However, two things concern me. Firstly he has never been to Cheltenham before which although it can't be assumed he won't act at the track, you would prefer some course form to be in the book. Secondly, he has done all his winning in small fields. To his credit he has won 3 times in fields sizes of 18 or bigger, but they were lower grade races, the races he has dominated at a high grade have been with field sizes of 9 or below. I would imagine this years World Hurdle will be a competitive renewal without the presence of Big Bucks, therefore I expect more will go to post than the 11 who went last year. I also feel if he wasn't a Giggenstown horse he would be a bigger than 10/1, all in all there is enough to persuade me to look elsewhere.

Cheltenham Festival specialist Get Me Out Of Here looks to go one better than the three seconds at the previous three festivals. Better ground will be key and you can't fault his Cheltenham record, but like Solwhit, he has never run over three miles, for the same reason it makes him easily opposable. He has about 10lb to find on official ratings (over 2 1/2 miles), has no form in grade 1's outside of novice company and overall has enough on his plate. Each-way claims at best but 12/1 isn't any value. You would be betting with your heart and not my head.

The form of SMAD PLACE has been a concern this year, for whatever reason he hasn't performed to the level of last year that saw that saw him put up a career best to finish 3rd in last years World Hurdle. The grey was easily swept aside at Wetherby on his reappearance by Tidal Bay, having travelled and jumped well he found nothing off the bridle, which was as much of a mystery to his trainer Alan King as anyone. In hindsight, although Reve De Sivola absolutely thumped him in the Longwalk, it wasn't the worst effort on ground which was far too soft for his liking, Reve De Sivola has since elevated himself to the head of this market. He was a staying on 3rd last year, that stamina should see him well in a race littered with suspect stayers and it would be fair to say if he reproduces the form of last years third, when he ran to 161, he wouldn't be far away and 16/1 he is the best each-way value in the race.

Others of note. Wonderful Charm is highly thought of at home by Paul Nicholls but is coming back off a 138 lay-off, he has had a wind operation which is a positive, but no five year old has ever won the World Hurdle and he is more likely to go for the Coral Cup, where he is ante-post favourite. Fiveforthree is coming back off a 728 day lay-off and will have to retain all of his old ability to be competitive here, that can't guaranteed after injury and 33/1 is too short all things considered. Zaidpour has been slightly disappointing this year having been turned over 3 times at prices smaller than 2/1, he has a bit to prove and has to have cut in the ground. Stable mate So Young was his conqueror at Gowran Park last time out and is another who wants dig in the ground. It's disappointing he hasn't progressed since finishing third in the 2011 Neptune Hurdle. Trustan Times did well to take the valuable fixed brush hurdle a Haydock in November, but looked outclassed in the Longwalk on his only start in this grade and has about 17lb to find on official ratings. Celestial Halo is the not the force of old and has struggled in recent times, he is an admirable horse but I doubt he's good enough.

Overall, the omission of Big Bucks has attracted many horses that probably wouldn't being trying their luck if the four time champion was present. Many of these are stepping up from 2 1/2 miles and are attempting three miles for the first time, this will be an dour test of stamina (as all staying races are at the festival) and you must see out the trip well to be competitive. 9/10 previous winners had winning form in graded three mile hurdles, therefore any horse with no form over three miles is easily opposed in terms of winning the race: Peddlers Cross, Solwhit, Get Me Out Of Here and Wonderful Charm fit that mould. However there may be some each-way value in those come post time as they're all a bit short at the time of writing. Monksland has the potential to be a rapid improver and is the real unknown quantity in the race, I worry if he's ready for this on only his 8th start under rules, he hasn't done enough to justify joint second favouritism in my opinion. Bog Warrior, Zaidpour and So Young would need considerable cut in the ground which can't be guaranteed. I believe the market has got this about right, the top two in the betting bring the best form into the race and are the highest rated in the field. Over 2 1/2 miles I would be all over Oscar Whisky, but it's over 3 miles which I believe stretches him to the limit. I would personally have him and REVE DE SIVOLA the other way round in the market due to the latter being rock solid, he stays well and has excellent festival form, having looked at the race in depth I think he is good value at 5/1. In relation to each-way value, SMAD PLACE would have to bounce back to form to make the frame, but it isn't out of the question and his effort in the Longwalk probably wasn't as bad as it appeared at the time. He stays well and has been there and done it before, better ground would also be beneficial, 16/1 is decent each-way value.

Advice - Reve De Sivola 2pt Win @5/1 Paddy Power/Ladbrokes
Smad Place 0.75pt E/W @ 16/1 Various

Champion Hurdle 2013

Champion Hurdle 2013

Day ones feature contest has a much more open feel to it this year than it did last. It's very likely Hurricane Fly will start favourite again this year having had a much better preparation than last, Willie Mullins has had a clear run with the gelding, taking his grade 1 tally to 14 in the process. Worryingly for his rivals, the last time he had a preparation like this he was an awesome winner of the contest in 2011. The credentials he brings to the table are exceptional; he jumps athletically, has a high cruising speed and has the ability to quicken at blistering speed. If he puts it all together on the day he will be extremely difficult to beat. For all the superlatives, he has disappointed before, notably here when only 3rd behind Rock On Ruby twelve months ago. I still have doubts whether the stiff nature of Cheltenham sees him at his best, additionally the form of his 2011 win hasn't worked out well, so much so it could be classified as a poor renewal. I feel there are others in the line up who are more than capable of seizing on any mishap, no horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 has regained the Champion Hurdle, consequently 6/4 doesn't represent any value.

Zarkandar has been excellently campaigned by Paul Nicholls this season. Another who has had a much smoother preparation for the contest this year, Zarkandar has taken the: Elite, International and Kingwell hurdles in a manner of a horse who has matured, appearing to fulfil the potential he displayed when scoring in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. He was never considered to be right last year, to his credit he took the Betfair Hurdle and was a staying on 5th in the Champion Hurdle. He will get every yard of the 2 miles and has the ability to lay up with the pace so the likelihood of getting outpaced like last year is less of a worry. A negative is I don't see a front runner in the race, therefore not any obvious pace, although there will never be a slowly run Champion Hurdle, this will probably go against Zarkandar, he likes to race prominently but won't want to lead, he may just give the speed horses behind a tow into the race. Also I think the old course is less likely to suit than the new course, it is more of a speed test which again isn't ideal. I can't be having him at 9/2.

Last years champion Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong since his victory twelve months ago. Without the benefit of a run he ran well for a long period in the International on ground softer than ideal, he followed that up with a fortunate win at Doncaster last time out when the ill-fated Darlan was cantering all over him. There is a argument his Champion Hurdle win was slightly fortuitous last year, having raced prominently he was never reached by those behind, the jockeyship of the beaten horses has to come into question and on that basis he doesn't deserve to be 11/2 in my opinion. I also fear the gelding has had a very stop-start season. Harry Fry has been umming and erring when to run, consistently waiting for some good ground, having many declarations throughout the year without a clear plan isn't the best of preparations. Also the lack of obvious pace in the race will probably be against him, like Zarkandar he will want to prominent but not lead and set the pace, he may just set the race up, there are too many negatives.

GRANDOUET has been my ante-post fancy since the start of the season. He missed the Festival last year through injury but his one effort this term proved he has lost none of the old talent. He reappeared in the International Hurdle in December, like Rock On Ruby he didn't have the benefit of a run, but travelled and jumped well in the bad ground, he quickened after the last but wasn't able to out-battle the match fit Zarkandar. He is an out-and-out 2 miler with pace to burn and an electric turn of foot which could see him accelerate past those up with the pace off the home turn. The main negative is he has only appeared once this year, a minor setback forced him to miss his intended engagement in the Kingwell, consequently a lack of match practice is a worry. However, at 13/2 he appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and has a lot of untapped potential. He fits the mould of the speed horse I am siding with this year.

The mercurial Binocular is something of a forgotten horse. On his day he is brilliant, so much so he would be much shorter than the 9/1 he is currently trading at, it just depends what Binocular turns up. Put a line through his reappearance, historically he has needed the run first time out and the ground was against him, consequently he wasn't given a hard time by McCoy. The 2010 champions well-being can be measured by his hurdling, when on song he is electric and the latest update from Nicky Henderson was positive, where he said the gelding was hurdling as well as ever. He can be found at 11/1 in places which represents some value, it just depends if he feels like it, plus he faces the same terrible statistic as Hurricane Fly where only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle crown.

Cinders And Ashes has come in for considerable support since the long-term forecast has become more positive. Better ground is key to this horse, his form in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas hurdles this year has been poor and doesn't justify the 12/1 he is currently trading at, but it has been on soft ground so it can effectively be excused, when he got his ground last year he won a shade cosily in the Supreme. Although it is likely he has improved for another years maturity, I think he will come up short in this grade, quite simply I don't think he will be good enough.

Another who requires an end to end gallop is Countrywide Flame. I don't agree with the theory that he needs soft ground on the back of his impressive victory in the Fighting Fifth, he just coped with it best on the day. If we're being honest he didn't beat much, Cinders And Ashes hates soft ground, Trifolium ran no sort of race and Bothy simply isn't good enough in the grade. His best two performances came last Spring at Cheltenham and Aintree, both of those were on good ground. However, I do agree with the theory Cheltenhams stiff nature and uphill finish will suit John Quinns charge. On all given form he has a bit to find, since 1939 only four horses have taken the Champion Hurdle after winning the Triumph, only 2 of those were in consecutive years. I think he's got enough on his plate to win the race and I would like to see him bigger than the current 16/1 he is trading to represent any each-way value, he may be bigger on the day.

Others of note are Cotton Mill, he would be of interest as an each-way shout at 25/1, his run in the Betfair Hurdle was solid and he is bound to get every yard of the 2 miles. A return to a sounder surface will suit but with no definite target confirmed you can't back him unless you have the benefit of non-runner no bet.  Steps To Freedom won at Dundalk in taking fashion recently, he has been off all winter due to the poor ground, good ground is a necessity but I doubt he is classy enough. He ran poorly in last years Supreme before disappointing at Fairyhouse, he has enough to prove in the grade. Khyber Kim ran ok on is reappearance in the Kingwell after a long lay off, it would be a shock if an 11 year old was at his peak and I doubt he is up to it nowadays. Raya Star has been a superstar this year for Alan King, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle was a cracking run, although I'm not sure it is a strong form line of you take Darlan out of the race. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame didn't run up to scratch, I would be surprised if 3rd placed Dodging Bullets was up to Champion Hurdle standard either. Additionally, his best form has come at Ascot, Cheltenham is the other way round and his effort in the County Hurdle last year was his worst of the season. I would be surprised if he's good enough.

In conclusion, although the race will not been run slowly, I have doubts whether it will be run at the usual breakneck speed with no obvious pace setter in the field. There will be horses who like to race prominently, most notably Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby, however my thoughts are that they will set the race up for those speed horse behind who will be able to pick them off after jumping the last. Of course there is a chance they won't be able to get past the leaders, repeating the scenes of Hardy Eustace's second Champion Hurdle in 2005. It is an intriguing contest which may turn into a tactical affair, which if it does, I would rather side with the speed horses with that killer turn of foot. Of those: Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Binocular fit the mould with GRANDOUET taking preference at the prices.

Advice - Grandouet - 2pt Win @13/2 William Hill/Betfred

Cheers,

Josh

Doncaster Grimthorpe Chase

Calgary Bay - Has a lot in his favour today,
including booking of AP McCoy

Ruby Walsh has chosen to go to Doncaster to ride Join Together, it suggests he is fancied to go well on what will probably be his final run before this years long term target, the National. He has only ever gone left handed and stays well, however the main worry would be his form has tended to tail off in the spring, consequently 5/1 is a tad short. The main form line for many of these is the race here in December, the winner Court By Surprise capped off what was a fantastic day for Emma Lavelle, however the stable hasn't had a winner since which is a huge negative. Last years winner Ikorodu Road ran well to be 5th that day and will appreciate the better ground, but he is off a 7lb higher mark than last year and others are preferred. Course specialist Corkage was another who ran well in defeat here in the race but has been out of form since in lower grade races, he may have been trained for this but he has also found winning difficult. Night In Milan was 2nd that day, he followed that up with a good effort behind the ultra progressive Chac Du Cadran at Catterick. Solid claims and 7/1 looks fair. Mr Moonshine has been dependable over both obstacles, he will be suited by today's test and the booking of Wayne Hutchinson is intriguing, the handicapper has given him a chance and I expect him to make the frame. Calgary Bay is only 2lb higher than when winning the Skybet Chase here last year, his 3 runs at Doncaster have yielded 2 victories and a 2nd. He acts at track and back on a sound surface he holds every chance. 8/1 is attractive. Quentin Collonges will be a suited by a return to a sounder surface, he appears well handicapped (5lb lower than last win) but is becoming a frustrating horse to follow as he hasn't done the business on the track. He also run out oft the handicap which is never ideal, has a bit to prove. Billie Magern will be suited by the faster ground, in fact the quicker the better and he is just the type of who could bounce back with a good effort here. He is another who looks well handicapped on his best form, 14/1 represents some each-way value but Sam Twiston-Davies has gone to Newbury which may suggest there isn't much stable confidence. Beneficial Reform and Lord Villez are 9lb out of the handicap which would suggest they aren't good enough.

Advice - Calgary Bay 2pt Win @ 8/1 Paddy Power