Sorry for the lack of selections recently, as you can imagine Christmas was a busy period where time spent on the laptop was kept to a minimum. I hope to get back on track this week.
Sandown
Before I start I'm really disappointed that the rearranged Dipper novices chase has had to be cancelled due to only 3 entries being submitted, I was looking forward to seeing Captain Conan again!
12:45 - 32 Red.com Listed Mares Hurdle
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Kentford Grey Lady - Guaranteed
to get the trip |
A small field but it contains plenty of quality and will go some way to informing us who is the best mare behind the mighty Quevega. On pure ratings
Une Artiste should win this, she has the best form having won the Fred Winter at last years Festival and more recently at Wincanton and Wetherby. It would be fair to say she has proven herself to be the best mare around over 2 miles, however she now takes a step up in trip to 2 1/2 miles here and opposes horses proven at the distance. If she wins here the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle will surely be in her radar. The ground will be heavy here so this will take some getting which is a worry and at 5/2 I think there's too many doubts to justify that price.
Proven at the trip is
Kentford Grey Lady, 2nd to Quevega at last years Festival was a cracking effort and that form is the strongest over 2 1/2 miles in this race. She is a big horse and takes a run or two to get fit generally, however she won first time out this year which was a tad unexpected, albeit she was left alone at the last. She will be better for that run here, but whether she is quite spot on is a worry, she took at least 2 runs to be properly fit last year. However, in receipt of 8lb here I fancy she may be good enough to see this out, particularly as she has won over 3 miles in the past, 11/10 is too short though.
Alasi is an admirable mare who has been so versatile over both hurdles and fences, although she is proven at the trip, the ground is a worry and she has beaten by both Une Artiste and Kentford Grey Lady in the past.
Kells Belle has decent form on testing ground and like Alasi is proven as a consistent mare, however she must overcome a poor seasonal reappearance at Kempton (where she was dismounted) and is also the Henderson 2nd string. She will be there to pick up the pieces if the big guns flop.
Katkeal looks held on all form and has a bit to find on ratings.
Advice - No Bet
2:25 - Tolworth Hurdle
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| Court Minstrel - Classy type with form in the book |
All of these horses are unexposed and look promising which makes this hard to judge.
Melodic Rendezvous was a good winner at Cheltenham last month, if the race was run at a faster pace I think this horse and the 2nd Royal Boy, who re-opposes here, would have stamped their authority to a greater extent. I liked the way he travelled through the race and I thought he jumped well off a slow pace, he is also proven on testing ground at Cheltenham and when 2nd to Champagne Fever at Punchestown, he has strong claims and deserves to be favourite.
Golden Hoof has winning course and distance form, that win last month was mightily impressive, his engine looks big and the turn of foot was there between the last two hurdles. The stable have won this the last 2 years and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to 3, another with obvious claims and 7/1 doesn't lack value. The fore-mentioned
Royal Boy made a pleasing British debut at Cheltenham, he was doing all his best work at the end of the race and I think he might want further in time, but he the choice of Barry Geraghty here and it will be interesting to see how his form behind Melodic Rendezvous works out. Again, he is another with obvious claims but 3/1 is short for me.
COURT MINSTREL is a horse I have been sweet on since I saw his impressive victory at Cheltenham in October. I thought he got a poor ride at Cheltenham in November in a race where the form has worked out well, Dodging Bullets has subsequently been 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle and River Maigue hosed up on the same card. Also he was a very smart bumper horse and is the top rated on Timeform ratings, I think he looks solid. He has never been on anything worse than good to soft which may be a concern considering as he likes to race from off the pace, but anything above 9/2 I feel is overpriced.
Poet's win at Newbury was a likeable performance without being impressive, the form has been dealt a blow with the 2nd being turned over at Musselburgh yesterday, but he has the form on soft and he was a group horse on the flat so the class is there. I personally would rather side with a national hunt bred horse here because the flat recruits don't have the best record in this race.
Pendra is the horse I hope wins to be honest, Charlie Longsdon is a very good trainer and starting to have the big successes he deserves. Last year he had Vulcanite who was may be a notch below top class, this year he has this horse who loves soft ground as has won very well around Plumpton twice so far this season. He takes a massive step up in class here but will love the ground, he will want further in time when looking at his pedigree, there is a chance he won't have the speed here.
Le Reve has looked held in races worse than this and I doubt he will be up to this, he looks to want further.
Advice - Court Minstrel - 3pt Win @7/1 Paddy Power
3:00 - 32Red Handicap Hurdle
Ifyouletmefinish has strruggled behind some very classy horses and has perhaps been a tad unlucky to run into a few good ones, this isn't as strong as some of the races he has been competing in but I feel he may be held off 134, also the run 6 days ago may come too soon. 4/1 is no value to me against unexposed horses.
Chesil Beach Boy ran a decent race at Kempton, he found nothing off the bridle and at the age of 10, I feel he looks exposed.
Valco De Touzaine is juvenile from the Nicholls stable who could be anything, he shaped with enough promise on his debut and could be very well handicapped, it's a strange race for him to run in, if he handles the ground and the hustle and bustle of a handicap, he must go close but 5/1 is too short for what he has achieved so far.
Urgence D'Estruval makes his British debut for Alan King here, soft ground form from France is in the book but the stable rarely wins with this type of horse first time out, he is best watched.
Ronaldo Des Motte has a great chance on his best form, he is from the right stable in terms of winning from a lay-off, but it probably best watched on the ground. At around 8/1 it probably shows that the people in the know don't really know, so I going to leave him alone.
Whitby Jack is another best watched off a lay-off, whilst
Kylenoe Fairy will probably appreciate better ground.
SOFTSONG's form behind Petit Robin and Into Wain over course and distance looks solid, he was raised 4lb but Michael Nolan takes off 5lb here, so he is effectively 1lb below his last run here and this race is probably slightly weaker. Consequently he has strong claims, 13/2 looks fair too.
Teshali has changed trainer in the summer, he looks open to improvement, but all his form is on better ground.
Duaiseoir is likely to find it tricky in a tougher race here whilst
Lord Of House is very unexposed and gets in off a featherweight, this is a huge step up in class and you take a punt that he will relish the hustle and bustle of a handicap at such a young age, 12/1 is too short to take that punt in my opinion.
THE ITALIAN YOB has solid form behind some good horses, most notably behind Melodic Rendezvous, if he can reproduce that form he has to have a chance, like two or three others in here, he looks unexposed and has every chance if he takes to handicapping, 8/1 represents some value to me.
Advice - Softsong -2pt Win @13/2 Ladbrokes
The Italian Yob 1pt Win @8/1 Boyelsports
Chepstow
2:10 - Coral Mobile Text Mobile To 82211 Handicap Chase
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| Carrickboy- Eyecatching at Haydock, can he build on it here? |
Gus Macrae has had a great season to date, 2 mile handicap chases has been his game and Patrick Corbett has struck up an excellent relationship with him, I worry he is looking held off 135 and they are stepping him up in trip to try and find some improvement. He may improve for the step up in distance, but I still think he looks held although at 12/1 that doesn't lack value.
Mahogany Blaze and
Shoegazer have both probably found their marks and are both too short, whilst
Cedre Bleu is a pig and his Ascot win flagged up attitude issues.
Tail Of The Bank and
Cadoudalas are both 10 and are probably more exposed than others.
See U Bob is very fairly treated on his best form in Ireland, he has transferred to England in the summer, he should handle the ground, 10/1 isn't value to me though. The vote goes to
CARRICKBOY who is an eyecatcher for the Horse Racing Blog, he raced with real zest at Aintree and more recently Haydock, he went from the front at Haydock and was bang there before fading. He comes back in trip here which is of interest and Venetia Williams is very good at placing her horses. Carrickboy is down to a winnable mark and I hope his handler may have placed him well here, 17/2 is the most value in the race to me.
Advice - Carrickboy - 2pt Win @17/2 Paddy Power
3:20 - Coral Welsh National
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| Monbeg Dude - Looks slightly overpriced and Paul Carberry is an interesting booking |
Readers will know that I have backed
TEAFORTHREE at 8/1 ante-post for this. His efforts at Cheltenham and Newbury were very eyecatching, Rebecca Curtis has been public in saying that this horse needs two runs to get fit and that is what has been achieved, he jumps well, the ground will suit, he will stay and he races prominently which is ideal in this contest. Overall he has a lot going for him, but his chance doesn't justify his price, 3/1 is far too short. I have concerns that
Across The Bay has a lot of weight, but he will love the ground, another who will love the ground is
Giles Cross but I wouldn't be backing Victor Dartnell's horses with anyone's money following their bout of equine herpes. I'm not a huge fan of
Michel Le Bon, I just don't think he's a natural over fences and finds it all hard work whilst
Soll is too short on what he has achieved, although he will stay and is likely to relish racing prominently.
Universal Soldier is a lightly raced horse who is open to improvement, I fear he doesn't have the experience to cope with this attritional contest in addition to racing scratchily at Haydock last time out, he doesn't look the smoothest of travellers.
Master Overseer has a penalty to carry after his Cheltenham win, he is tailor-made for contests such as this, whether he can string two run together is a doubt, he has struggled with consistency in the past.
Jadanli and
Mon Mome are probably past their best,
Triggerman made a satisfactory comeback off a lay-off at Cheltenham but this is still a tough ask on his 2nd start back.
MONBEG DUDE is a very lightly raced horse who won well at Cheltenham two months ago, he proved he stays in testing ground and has been raised 7lb which looks fair. He wants to be held up and come late, which isn't ideal for this race, but he does have the best jockey for that type of ride in Paul Carberry on board which is very interesting. A lack of Chepstow form is a worry, but he does look a tad over priced 14/1.
Sona Sasta has obvious claims with Chepstow form in the book, he won the traditional trial race for this at the track last month but like his stablemate Master Overseer, whether he can string two runs together is a worry.
Our Island was 6th in this last year, he appears to handle the track and the ground, he is another year older and will hopefully be an improved horse, isn't without a chance.
INCENTIVISE looks to win this prize for Richard Lee again this year, last years winner and stablemate Le Beau Bai is an absentee so this horse carries the flag, he gets in off a featherweight and he has form around Chepstow, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he made the shake up, he is out of the handicap though but 66/1 is too big.
ARBOR SUPREME is very fairly treated on his best form, he scrapes in off bottom weight and is actually 13lb out of the handicap. He was rated 140 over fences 5 runs ago, he runs off 114 and Maurice Linehan takes 5lb off. The market will be telling of his chance but he is a McManus horse and at 40/1 I think he is overpriced.
Advice - Teaforthree (ante-post) @8/1
Monbeg Dude - 1pt EW @14/1 Stan James
Incentivise - 0.5pt EW @66/1 Bet Victor
Arbor Supreme - 0.5 EW@40/1 Bet Victor
Wincanton
2:40 - Bathwick Tyres Handicap Chase
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| Consigliere - Has he been layed out for this? |
Current Event finally got his head in front at Kempton 2 months ago and is open to improvement as a 6 year old, but others are preferred.
Fiendish Flame is an admirable horse and has been a joy to watch over the years, but probably looks exposed here,
The Sawyer is in a similar boat. I think
Big Fella Thanks needs further than this, although his comeback run at Aintree showed promise and he didn't appear to get home over 3 mile 2 furlongs. The handicapper has given
Michael Flips a chance, he is the classiest horse in the race and if he can put his best foot forward he has a massive chance here, however he has ran a bit flat so far this season. This contest is much weaker than those he has been competing in, although I think 7/1 is overpriced, he has no form on soft or worse.
TAKE THE BREEZE has been a good horse in his time, he will relish the ground and may be getting down to a winnable mark, whether that is 137 I'm not so sure, but 20/1 is overpriced.
Tullamore Dew has been given a chance by the handicapper, he is off a career low mark over fences and like Michael Flips he has been a bit flat so far this year, if he can reproduce his old form he has a great chance but at the age of 11 I think his best days are behind him. Although, he did run a much better race last time out.
CONSIGLIERE takes the vote as a previous winner of this race, he has come back down to 138 (2lb higher than last year) but Kieran Edgar is a promising conditional whose 7lb claim takes a nice bit of weight off. It's feasible this is his race to win for the year, it may be a coincidence his stable is sponsored by the race sponsors and 6/1 is slightly overpriced.
Mr Gardner is a horse I like, but is probably best watched off a lay-off but has been backed here which is interesting,
Plein Pouvoir may of had his day at Cheltenham, he is a big horse and a lot needs to go right for him to win generally - he is prone to a howler of a mistake!
Advice - Consigliere 2pt Win @6/1 Ladbrokes
Take The Breeze 0.75pt EW @20/1 Stan James
Cheers,
Josh
