Selections - Saturday 22nd December

Rain has meant we will see more of the testing ground we have seen in recent weeks, both Ascot and Haydock are heavy whilst Newcastle has been forced to abandon their card. I am struggling to find any real value so it's not much of a betting day for me.

Raya Star takes the Ladbroke Hurdle last year under a brilliantly timed Wayne Hutchinson ride

Ascot

12:55 - Foundation Developments Novices Handicap Hurdle

This race will ultimately take some getting for these novice hurdlers, young horses having to slog 3 miles around Ascot on testing ground will sort them out. De La Bech will be a popular choice after his impressive 20 length victory at Lingfield last month, he appeared to revel in the heavy ground and looks to be a horse who can defy his mark off 118. The stable hasn't been in great form but had a winner here yesterday. Another horse on the upgrade is Okafranca, Jim Old's gelding has made a solid return after injury and has been raised 8lb for his latest win at Taunton which looks fair. 110 looks workable, he is also a 7 going 8 year old so has the benefit of physical and mental maturity over some of his rivals here, that is a huge plus in the testing ground. Cheat The Cheater looks to be getting better as he matures and will probably make the shake up as Kaylif Aramis and Koultas King have been running consistently but finding one or two too good, I think that will be the story again here. Wings Of Icarus was heavily supported for a handicap hurdle at Sandown last month, David Pipe has stepped him up to 3 miles which should assist as he appeared to get outpaced. He has strong claims. Call Me Sir has rose 34lb in the handicap from 69 to 103 since the summer, he is on a career high mark here and may get found out. Cornish Ice made a pleasing comeback after injury but probably will probably find the heavy ground hard work on his second start back, fitness may be an issue. A tentative selection goes to Highland Retreat, he is a winning Irish pointer and looks to be a bit of a slow plodder, but that is what this race will require and I fancy him to stay. The form of his last run isn't too bad either, Midnight Appeal has gone and ran well at Cheltenham being Coneygree and Return Spring is no mug. Jack Barber is a decent conditional, his 7lb claim is very valuable here. He looks over priced at 14/1 and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Highland Retreat 1pt EW @14/1 Bet365

2:00 - Long Walk Hurdle

Master Of The Hall - Needs a trip and on the basis
 of his best chase form, could be overpriced

Obviously the defection of Big Bucks to injury has made this race much more of a betting heat than it originally was. Smad Place was very disappointing at Wetherby on his comeback run, having travelled strongly he found nothing and weakened into a tame 3rd. Alan King has stated he wasn't happy with the grey when he got back to the yard so something may of been a miss. His form figures at Ascot read 1,2 so he goes at the track and must be better for his Wetherby effort, it must be remembered that Tidal Bay has gone to be runner-up in the Hennessy and Crack Away Jack didn't disgrace himself behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham last week. He is only a 5 year old so there is still improvement to come and if he reproduces the form that saw him finish 3rd in the World Hurdle last year, he will be hard to beat here. On that form 2/1 contains a bit of value to me, particularly as most of his rivals are not regulars in this sphere and have something to prove. Trustan Times is definitely a horse on the upgrade after his win in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, on that form he has merited a step up in class. We will find out where he stands here, he will go in ground and he will stay. I would say he looks a solid bet and he has every chance, 11/4 on what he has achieved is a tad short though in my opinion. Prospect Wells takes a big step-up in trip which I don't like on the heavy ground. Undoubtedly one of the classiest horses in the race, that may be blunted as I can see this becoming a bit of a slog, there looks to be pace in the race with a couple of confirmed front runners and whether he will stay 3 miles is a doubt in my mind. Those front runners are Kayf Aramis and Cucumber Run who both look to be slightly out of their depth here, they are likely to set the race up for the more classy horses. I understand Reve De Sivola has a decent chance based upon his 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury but I can't be having him at 9/2. Master Of The Hall only goes in small fields and is difficult to place, he is reverted back to hurdles here and on the pick of his chase form is has a chance. Tony McCoy has got on well with him in the past and the fact Geraghty has sided with stablemate Cucumber Run is of interest. 8/1 represents a bit of value to me.

Advice - Smad Place - 1pt Win @9/4 Stan James

Master Of The Hall - 1pt Win @8/1 William Hill

3:10 - Ladbroke Hurdle

Cause Of Causes looks overpriced at 16/1
 based upon his solid form

Wow this is a competitive renewal! 6 reappear from The Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, including 5 of the first 6 home, consequently the race will provide a significant form line for this. It would be appropriate to start with the winner Olofi, the 136 mark that defied him on numerous occasions last year was overcome to record a 2 length victory - he was cut up turning for home and possibly could have won by further. He has been raised 8lb to 144 which looks workable, he has obviously improved for the summer and defying this mark here is feasible. I worry slightly he's going right handed, only gone right handed once in career and there is a possibility those behind last month have got a pull at the weights here. At 14/1 earlier in the week he represented some value, but at 9's that value is all but gone. Cash And Go was runner-up to Olofi and has been raised 4lb for that effort, 145 looks a very workable mark based on what we saw last time out and he has strong claims to go one better here. Barry Geraghty has chosen him out of Nicky Henderson's 4 entries. Balder Succes is currently favourite at 6/1 generally and bids to take the honours for the King yard once again, his best form is on soft so ground conditions should be ideal. It is likely he has plenty of improvement in him as he is only 4, he has abundances of class and does a lot of work on the bridle. Whether he has more much improvement beyond his 147 mark is yet to be seen but he has obvious claims and won't be far away in my opinion, he is a little short based upon what he has achieved but the untapped potential is there to be seen. It's A Gimme ran a cracker to be second to Raya Star here last month, readers will know I'm not a huge fan and the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft is a worry, he may well act on it but I wouldn't be prepared to take the chance. Coming back from an injury is always a concern and at 9/1 Ranjaan represents little value. He is obviously talented and is French bred so should go on the ground, but this is a big ask on his comeback run. Cause Of Causes looks overpriced to me at 16/1, he was just over a length behind Cash And Go at Cheltenham and is 9pts bigger in price. I know he stayed on into 3rd and never looked like winning, but he has only gone up 3lb which looks fair to me and I think he has more strong each-way claims here. His defeat by a head in the Galway Hurdle was also a cracker. Rattan was 6th at Cheltenham but was never really in the race, he was staying on late but retains his mark of 142 which looks high enough. Double Ross was an impressive winner of the Intermediate Hurdle at the Open Meeting before running creditably at Haydock when carrying a penalty in a competitive hurdle, he hit the wall that day after the last which is a worry. This is more competitive and his handicap mark now stands at 142, that's 5lb higher than Haydock and although he will go in the ground, he may have found his level. Into Wain gets in off a feather weight after being unlucky to go down to an inspired Petit Robin at Sandown, I thought he as all over the winner that day and he must have a chance again here. Bothy ran another cracker at Cheltenham to finish 4th, he has been raised even further to 142 which looks plenty high enough, however Patrick Corbett has proved his worth and his 7lb claim is very valuable. Effectively running off a mark of 135 is a pound below the mark he finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle off. At 28/1 I think he's massively over priced and is likely to be placed once again. A worry is he has very rarely gone right handed. Petit Robin and Dan Breen both look very exposed now as Bar De Ligne, Thomas Edison and First Avenue don't have an adequate level of form that would justify a chance. Princeton Plains has a 7lb higher mark in England than Ireland, therefore he looks held here and Urbain De Sivola's form is hard to make sense of as it's all in France. He goes there to get the testing ground which he will find tomorrow, the only way I can judge him is his effort in the Triumph last year where he was 12th, although he is only 4 and could be unexposed. Rigidity (dark horse to follow) has been novice chasing but has been a tad disappointing, he reverts back to hurdles here and is off the same mark he was second last year. Returning to the scene of his best effort to date could rekindle the fire, but as one of his supporters I feel this isn't his day. Lyvius was a batting winner of the Gerry Fielden last month and looks to be on the upgrade. Rock On Ruby won that race at Newbury before going onto Champion Hurdle glory, I'm not saying this horse has that quality but he looks unexposed and fits the mould of the type of horse that wins this race. Barry Geraghty said there wasn't a lot between him and Cash And Go when it came to his decision. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional and his 5lb claim only boosts his claims, he has form on testing ground in Germany so that shouldn't be a problem either. I have backed him at 11/1 earlier in the week but wouldn't be having him at 9's which he is currently.

Advice - Lyvius - Win @11/1 (Ante-Post)
Cause Of Causes - 1pt EW @16/1 Majority
Bothy - 0.5pt EW @28/1 Bet Fred

Other horses of interest:
Desert Cry
Ulck Du Lin
Notarfbad (Eyecatcher)

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

The King George Preview 2012

Kauto Star - Following the star
on boxing day is no longer the norm

The mid-season highlight of the National Hunt season is fast approaching and for the first time in 6 years, the legendary figure of Kauto Star, who won 5 of the last 6 renewals, will not be present due to retirement. Without the horse who has won more King George's than anyone else, the race has suddenly become a much more open affair, also the recent dominance of second season chasers adds even more spice to the mix. Overall, on paper, the 2012 King George VI chase has all the makings of a blockbuster.



Been there. Done it. Got the t-shirt.

Due to Kauto Star's recent dominance, only one previous winner lines up in the race, that horse is 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run. On route to that momentous triumph in March, a rearranged visit to Kempton in January for the King George was a significant stepping stone. Kauto Star's one and only defeat in the contest came at the hands of Long Run, although the recently retired gelding wasn't at his best that day, Long Run was a seriously impressive winner. At the tender age of 6, his smooth 12 length success earned him an official rating of 179 and also elevated him to the head of the Gold Cup market. On pure ratings, his performance in the Gold Cup was 3lbs better than Kempton at 182. The 3 mile staying division was his dominate for years to come. How things have gone in the opposite direction, he has never matched or eclipsed that 182 rating in his next 5 efforts. There have been excuses, a new course record at Newbury in the Denman Chase and a dethroning in the Gold Cup since. On the day he broke the course record Burton Port was close up but didn't frank the form in the Gold Cup or Bowl at Aintree afterwards, therefore I feel the solidity of the form is questionable. A defeat first time out this year to the improving Silviniaco Conti was probably a bit unlucky, the race wasn't run to suit and it cost him. How many more chances am I willing to give him? Plenty. How many more chances am I willing to give his jockey? Very few. I know this is a bit on a contentious issue, but I feel the reason he gets beat is Sam Waley-Cohen. He's a good jockey, but he's an amateur jockey, he can't claim his 5lb in Grade 1's which means Long Run has got to be at least 5lb better than his opponents (arguably more against the likes of Walsh, Geraghty and McCoy, who are another 5lb better than your average jockey). I don't think Long Run is 10lb better than anything they ride! Do I blame Long Runs owner Robert Waley-Cohen for wanting his son to ride the horse? Absolutely not, it's a family horse so why wouldn't his son ride it? My dad would do the same. The horse may have peaked early like so many French breds to scale the heights he did in 2011, but for the reasons explained above, I can't be having him.

Need to know if you stay 3 miles? All roads lead to Kempton.

In terms of impressive performances so far this season, don't look too far past Cue Card's demolition job in the Haldon Gold Cup. His 26 length win over 2 mile 2 furlongs at Exeter has earn't him quotes of biggest 9/2 for this and he is strongly fancied by his handler Colin Tizzard to run a huge race. This will be his first attempt at 3 miles and it appears he will relish the step up in trip. He has a high cruising speed but is also a strong galloper, racing prominently here using those qualities gives him strong claims. As we know top class horses over shorter distances have had success in the King George, therefore I don't think he will be far away. A worry is he goes best fresh, also he may not be as classy as other horses making the step-up in trip, we have the reigning Queen Mother and Ryanair winners in the race.

2nd in 2010 and winner of the Ryanair last year, Riverside Theatre has strong claims that can't be ignored. The Ryanair was an odd performance, although he won, he was never travelling and Barry Geraghty gave him a great ride. It looked like he could never quite go the pace, Geraghty was niggling along from a long way out, but he rallied gamely to stay on up the hill to nail Medermit close home. He may have bounced slightly after his comeback win at Ascot in February. The Ryanair win proved to me he stays 3 miles. A strongly run Ryanair round a stiff track like Cheltenham wouldn't be to dissimilar to 3 miles around Kempton. He was rode to stay 3 miles in 2010, I feel he is a better horse now who truly stay 3 miles and can be ridden to win the race. However, the added plus is that he has the pace to win over a shorter distance which is crucial around a speed track like Kempton. On that basis he sways into favour. He is a solid bet an goes well mad fresh, connections have waited to run here first time out. One worry is his jockey, Geraghty will have the choice of him and Finians Rainbow and if he deserts Riverside Theatre, a winning combination will be broken which is far from ideal.

Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have long been saying that Finians Rainbow would be better suited by trip. As a 2 mile novice chaser he was a bit of tearaway who pulled hard, consequently he had to be allowed to go from the front. Last year he matured and learnt to settle, this has made him more tactically versatile, his reward was a win in the Queen Mother last spring, before making the step-up in trip to win the Melling Chase at Aintree really impressively. That has merited him to step-up further to compete here. Connections are taking a step into the unknown regarding his stamina, he appeared to be better for further at Aintree and there is every possibility that may be the case here too. Put a line through his seasonal reappearance, jockey said he hated the heavy ground and nothing found to be a miss afterwards, it should have him spot on for this. In terms of classy animals Finians Rainbow ranks highly and will have the speed to compete around Kempton. Main worries include: whether he will stay, if the ground comes up heavy and which one of the Henderson horses Geraghty rides - he was key to the success Finains Rainbow and Riverside Theatre had last year.

Sizing Europe, in my mind, is undoubtedly the classiest horse in this race. If he comes across from the Ireland, he stands a fantastic chance. Surely if his owners want to stay 3 miles, and be successful over 3 miles, Kempton is ideal? 3 miles around a speed track would surely be perfect? Rather than 3 miles in testing ground in Ireland. It is looking increasingly likely he is going to stay in Ireland to run in the Paddy Power chase over Christmas, I find it disappointing. He is 10 going on 11 and probably won't get many more opportunities to have a crack at the King George. It is also a worry if the ground turns testing. You can back him 'with a run' with Paddy Power at 6/1 which isn't the worst bet, although it doesn't contain abundances of value.

Whose got a point to prove?

Grands Crus has been a huge disappointment on his last 2 outings, first in the RSA where his blood was apparently wrong and more recently, when pulled up in last months Paddy Power. The grey has undergone a breathing operation since which is threatening his participation here. I was at Cheltenham that day, after the race an announcement came over the tanoy after the Paddy Power that said David Pipe had been called to the stewards room to explain his grey's effort, Mr Pipe responded he couldn't provide an answer. If a breathing operation was needed, Tom Scudamore would have surely heard him make a noise, but it doesn't appear he did and therefore I believe it is a stab in the dark to get his career back on track. There is a possibility it could make all the difference and Grands Crus returns to the horse of old, recapturing the form that saw him win the Feltham in devastating style last year. If he does, he will be very competitive. However, the doubt over his participation and his recent lack of form is enough to make me look elsewhere.

The Kauto name will once again be represented when Kauto Star's half-brother, Kauto Stone, lines up for the deadly Paul Nicholls. The stable were dealt a very cruel blow when Paddy Power winner Al Ferof was rule out with a tendon injury on the 17th December, two days after Cristal Bonus fatally broke his pelvis at Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh now takes the ride on Kauto Stone, who must prove he can retain a strong level of form throughout the season. Last season started with a bang when winning the Ladbroke chase at Down Royal over 2 1/2 miles, before dropping back in trip to finish a respectable 2nd to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek the following month. Thereafter, his form completely tailed off, his next 3 outings saw form figures of 7F7. Paul Nicholls has stated he has got to grips with how to train him this year and feels he is a better horse for it. On the form of his winning return to Down Royal in the 3 mile JN Wine Champion Chase, it's feasible he's got to the bottom of him. If he can retain the level of form that saw him win at Down Royal last month, he's in with a chance if the ground is soft but others are preferred.

Captain Chris carries the tag 'the best horse Richard Johnson has ever ridden', which when you consider Johnson has ridden Looks Like Trouble to a Gold Cup success, Flagship Uberalles to a Queen Mother victory and won a Champion Hurdle on Rooster Booster, its a hefty accolade to carry. Since winning the Arkle in 2011, the wheels have come off slightly. He was unlucky at Exeter, but ran creditably to finish 3rd here last year and then again when 4th in the Ryanair. This season has started much better than last with a win at Ascot in the Amlin, beating runaway Old Roan winner For Non Stop and Finians Rainbow who re-opposes here. He needs to go right handed and will act on most ground, he has claims but others are preferred more. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if he was competitive but I'm not convinced the Hobbs horses are running to there best at the moment.

Any value at the prices?

Hunt Ball was much shorter than he currently is before his run in the Paddy Power. A flat track over 3 miles will suit and he showed he could compete in a similar contest when 3rd in the Bowl at Aintree, which wasn't bad considering he was thought to be over the top by his trainer Keiran Burke. It would be a fairytale if he won after his meteoric rise in the weights last year, I think it's unlikely he will win but I do think he has a chance of being placed, 33/1 is worth a little E/1 wager in my opinion. Soft ground would be a worry though.

Champion Court is in a similar boat to Hunt Ball. So often the bridesmaid of novice chases last year, that form isn't looking too bad now after the recent dominance of second season chasers this season. Martin Keighley was very pleased with his seasonal reappearance at Ascot which saw his first run on heavy ground, he would of won if Evan Williams hadn't performed a master stroke to to bring the extremely well handicapped Williams Wishes back off a 600 day break. His best form has come at Cheltenham where he can dominate from the front over 2 1/2 miles, whether he can transfer that form to a flat track, going a different way round and over an extra half mile is a worry. Like Hunt Ball, he is worth a little E/W wager at 33/1 bearing in mind how solid his form in novice chases was last year.

Advice
Riverside Theatre 3pt Win - @6/1 Ladbrokes
Sizing Europe 1pt Win - @6/1 'With a run' Paddy Power
Hunt Ball 0.5pt E/W - @33/1 Paddy Power (Ante-Post Bet)
Champion Court 0.5pt EW - @33/1 Stan James

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

Cheltenham International Meeting - Saturday 15th December

Fridays action was a good one for me financially, but in terms of the blogs selections, things could have gone better. Hildisvini sadly lost his life after his fall at the 2nd last, he wouldn't have won but wasn't disgracing himself in defeat. It's a real shame as he was a horse on an upward curve going places, how far he would of gone we will never know. Falcarragh appeared to get stuck in the mud and Midnight Chase was a non-runner. The ground has deteriorated dramatically today and the heavy going makes tomorrow much more difficult, in particular as there is a few short priced favourites who look vulnerable.

Cheltenham 

12:45 - Ryman Stationary Novices Chase

Court In Motion will love the ground and doesn't appear to have lost any ability after injury,  but won't want to be too much shorter than 5/2 (if he turns up)

Our Father is sure to be a popular choice after his effortless win here last month, his jumping was accurate and precise, possibly a bit big, but he cruised though the soft ground to win by a comfortable 20 lengths. On that basis he has strong claims here. It's unlikely he will get stuck in the mud, he has a lot of scope and proved he handles the cut in the ground he will face tomorrow last time out. A worry is he has been seen best fresh in the past, on his 3 seasonal reappearances he has won all 3, but has failed to follow these up and has been a little disappointing thereafter. Also regular pilot Timmy Murphy is out injured, although Tom Scudamore is a more than able deputy, the winning partnership has been broken. Overall, there is enough to put me off, especially at 4/5, that's plenty short enough. If Lingfield (First Preference) is off, Court In Motion takes the vote as a strong travelling horse who goes in the heavy. His victory as a novice hurdler in testing conditions at Warwick was very impressive, finishing 2nd to Back In Focus, who is making a mockery of staying novice chases on testing ground in Ireland for Willie Mullins, on his next start as a novice hurdler was far from poor, what was most taking was the smooth headway and strong travelling qualities he showed on both appearances. He progressed to run third in the Albert Bartlett so course form is in the book before injury struck and he had a lay off. His two comeback starts over fences have been promising behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Dynaste and he receives weight from all his rivals here, he wouldn't want to get any shorter than 5/2 though. Emma Lavelle also saddles Highland Lodge, he flopped in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Warwick behind Cotton Mill last season but has made a smooth transition to fences this term. Harry Topper sprouted wings to over take him at Newbury last time out, however he did look held in second beforehand and his official rating of 139 leaves him with something to find with the former two. What A Warrior hasn't been disgraced in two novice chase defeats here this term, his jumping must improve but if he gets his act together he could run into 2nd at a big price. Best Served Cold has soft ground form in the book in Ireland, but doesn't appeal here as Simply Ben has a lot to find on official ratings.

Advice - (Depending on whether Court In Motion is a non-runner)
CIM Runs - 3pt win @11/4 Bet365 
CIM Non-Runner - 2pt Straight Forecast - Our Father to beat What A Warrior

1:20 - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase

Pepite Rose will prefer betting going but is a model of consistency and may run into a place

Shooters Wood looks to build upon his win in the November running of this race here last month, he has been raised 8lb for that win to 132 which could be workable and gets in here off 10 stone. Ruby Walsh is doing his minimum weight and having him aboard is a huge plus as the winning partnership is retained, but he is one I'm going to side against here. His has never raced on anything worse than soft, considering he has been on the go throughout the summer, he would probably prefer better ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Also he showed plenty of speed last time out but that weapon may be blunted tomorrow on softer ground and on the new course, which tests stamina further than the old, may further mitigate his high speed. Oiseau Du Nuit is a very admirable horse and owes me nothing, but his current mark of 158 is career high and conceding a stone all round is going to be hard in this ground, easily opposed. Pepite Rose was a massive improver last year, her two starts this year have been a little disappointing, particularly last time out on heavy ground at Ascot. I think she will be better seen on better ground and tomorrow probably isn't her day, but she is likely to run into a place. Her mark of 144 is high enough, but she is only a 5 year old and hopefully still has improvement in her. Oh Crick ran a cracker behind Ulck Du Lin at Newbury after running creditably here in November, although Joshua Newman takes off a valuable 7lb, he still looks in the hands of the handicapper. Imperial Shabra has a 6lb higher rating in the UK than he does in Ireland and has a lot on his plate here, whilst West With The Wind has been hopelessly out of form recently. That leaves David Pipe's two runners. His Excellency won here in October and his still a novice, he was well behind in the Tingle Creek last week and looks held off 147. Potentially the stables first string is a newcomer from France who makes his British debut here. Garynella has form on the soft in France and has form over further than 2 miles, this race will take some getting in the ground and proving he gets further than 2 miles sways him into favour. He is officially 2lb out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me to much and he gets in off a featherweight. It hasn't gone unnoticed as he's 7/2 joint-favourite generally, which is possibly a tad short so at the prices I will be having Pepite Rose E/W.

Advice - Pepite Rose - 1.5pt EW @17/2 Bet365
Garrynella - 3pt Win @4/1 Paddy Power

2:30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

Notus De La Tour should handle the ground and has a big race win in him somewhere

Walkon is fancied to go one better than his 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He is best fresh and has struggled to build upon his efforts first time out in the past, consequently I can't be having him and 4/1 doesn't represent any value anyway. Unioniste comes into the race very unexposed having won a novice chase at Aintree, before being out classed here last month behind Dynaste. He is on a potentially attractive handicap mark on his handicap debut and should handle the ground having won on heavy in France. His age worries me as a 4 year old may find the hustle and bustle of a competitive handicap unnerving. Also the jockey booking of Harry Derham, whose claim of 5lb is very useful, is a bit of a worry as I would prefer a jockey with more experience in a race such as this. Ruby Walsh partners Cristal Bonus whose winning seasonal reappearance at Down Royal was impressive and he loves the soft. As a novice chaser last year he ranked highly, running very well to finish 2nd to Menorah at Aintree after not being right at the festival, he is very highly rated at home. 157 is high mark to be winning this though, however siding against second season chasers this year hasn't been advisable. Has strong claims. Notus De La Tour takes my vote as a progressive horse who has been on my radar for some time. I have no qualms about him going in the ground as he is a French bred, who also ran creditably in Ireland last term in testing conditions. There is hopefully improvement to come and I would hope he is a bit better than his current mark of 144. 7/1 is probably a bit short on reflection of his chance though, I am on ante-post at 10/1. Nadiya De La Vega won here in October and was raised to 145, she ran to that mark in the Paddy Power too but probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race. Quantitativeeasing has a win and two 2nds to his name at the track but still looks held in the handicappers hands, much like Astracad and Renard, although the former stepping up in trip could bring out some improvement. I think Tatenen is best going right handed and doesn't have a great Cheltenham record, whilst Wishfull Thinking has been a ridiculously annoying horse to follow, carrying top weight will be tricky and I'm not convinced how well the Hobbs horses are running at the moment. Michael Flips has been a little disappointing so far this season, he hasn't recaptured the form that saw him run 4th in last years Jewson. Tartak is gradually slipping down the handicap the whole time and his day will come, whether it is here I don't know, but he may be worth a little wager each-way at 20/1.

Advice - Notus De La Tour - 10/1 Ante-Post. 
Tartak - 0.5pt EW - @22/1 Coral

3:05 - Stan James International Hurdle

Grandouet (Centre) - If he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he should go close

This is a match of up between 3 horses and choosing the winner has become increasingly difficult with the ground turning testing. Reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby has been slightly overlooked for this as his victory in March has been rendered a bit of a fluke. I personally think that the win was much better than people are giving it credit. Noel Fehily knew his horse stayed 2 and a half miles so was prominent and kicked for home coming off the home bend, but he wasn't being caught on the line, I wouldn't say he 'slipped the field' either. It could be argued it was poor jockeyship from those behind, I think there is an element of that certainly, but that isn't solely responsible. I will stick my neck on the line and say Rock On Ruby was a decent winner of the Champion Hurdle. He won by 4 lengths, that margin wasn't diminishing close home. The fact the rest of the field didn't get to fellow front runner Overturn either is the counter-argument, they were 2 lengths off him, but 6 lengths off Rock On Ruby! On that basis I can't see how he isn't favourite for this. We know he stays 2 and a half and that will be to his advantage tomorrow on ground that will make it more of a stamina test. He is currently 2/1, there is a bit of value in that price. Zarkandar is far too short for me at 5/4. Admittedly he wasn't right last year and still ran a staying on fifth in the Champion Hurdle after winning the Betfair, before falling at Aintree. His reappearance win at Wincanton was very taking considering he was giving away 17lb to the second, he also showed excellent battling qualities. The run he has under his belt will assist and he will be 100% fit for this, which is a bonus on the testing ground. The 4lb he receives off the other big players in the market will assist and the bigger emphasis on 'stamina' the new course requires will be right up his street, I still think he is best over 2 and a half. However, at the prices he's best left alone. One of the forgotten horses this year is Grandouet. Before injury struck he was my fancy for this Champion Hurdle having one this race last year, in the process getting rid of any doubts he wouldn't get up the Prestbury Park hill. A long absence of just over a year isn't ideal and the energy sapping ground will bring any lack of fitness to the fore, however Nicky Henderson is the master at bringing horses back from a break to win first time out. Hopefully he retains all old ability and if he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he will be hard to beat. At the prices, 5/2 is the best value in the race to me.

Advice - Grandouet - 3pt Win @5/2 Paddy Power

Other horses of interest tomorrow:
Aerial
Vasco Du Ronceray
Ikorodu Road E/W
Easter Meteor

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown

Cheltenham International Meeting - Friday 14th December

For the first time this season, Cheltenham will hold a fixture where I'm not in attendance. Although I would love to be there, I'm looking forward to watching from the comfort of my living room, in the warmth with an endless supply of hot beverages throughout the day.

Cheltenham

12:15 - Shloer Novices Chase

Of the 7 runners, you could make a case for at least 5 of these. A Nicky Henderson novice chaser is always respected and in Broadbackbob he saddles a horse with lofty expectations, he is considered a real RSA type (can be found as short as 14/1 with Skybet) by his handler and his smooth debut victory at Plumpton was impressive. Last year the Neptune was target but a chipped hock kept him off the track in the spring, missing that engagement may have been a blessing in disguise bearing in mind how his stablemate Simonsig turned the contest into a procession. He has the strongest appeal of these and is my idea of the most likely winner, but 6/5 is keeping me away, that's plenty short enough. Super Duty had good form in novice hurdles last year, most noticeably when 2nd to Simonsig at Aintree. A bad mistake 2 out scuppered his chances of victory although Simonsig was still hard on the bridle whilst upsides, it's unlikely he would won anyway. His novice chasing campaign started with a nice pipe opener at Carlisle, on all form he should of won but the trip was on the sharp side and his second placed finish probably wasn't the worst effort. That effort set him up for a much improved run at Haydock last time out. Poungach had his measure that day and although they pulled 28 lengths clear of useful horses such as Gullinbursti and Knock A Hand, it may be flattering as the ground was soft and would provide an explanation to why they finished so strung out. On that line of form he has a chance but others appeal more at the prices, 11/4 is a bit short for what he has achieved so far.

Hildisvini (Orange) - He looks to be a horse going in the right direction and merits a step up in class

Hildisvini has racked up a two timer over fences so far this season, subsequently he must give weight away to all his rivals here. Both victories have come at Huntingdon, with Well Regarded from the Emma Lavelle stable twice 2nd, Forgotten Gold was also 3rd. He will need to step up to compete here, but he is a horse going in the right direction and has merited a step up in class. We will find out a lot more about him and at the prices, he presents the best value to me at 7/1 generally. Rebel Rebellion will be back in his comfort zone stepping back up to 2 and a half miles after being outpaced behind Captain Conan here last month over 2, his victory at Exeter over 2 and a half was quite taking considering he led from start to finish. On that basis he may be hard to pass here, but the 2nd and 3rd haven't franked the form since and there's every chance he will be outclassed. Others are preferred. Forgotten Gold's win over 3 miles at Aintree last time out has worked out ok, First Fandango was behind him that day and has won since, but it isn't the strongest of form and coming back to 2 and a half here isn't ideal, he appeared to better the further he went at Aintree. Decent Cheltenham form is in the book but he's in a similar boat to Rebel Rebellion, I don't think he will be good enough for this.

Advice - Hildisvini - 1pt Win @8/1 Paddy Power

1:20 - CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Handicap Hurdle

Dark Lover is sure to be popular after his course and distance win in October and he was far from disgraced last month when stepping up in class in the Racing Post hurdle, he was only beaten 8 lengths. This is more similar to the October contest and if he can repeat his last two efforts, he stands a very good chance. The form is in the book and siding against the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh duo hasn't been advisable this season. 9/2 isn't the best value but in my opinion isn't the worst either. Strong claims. Turn Over Sivola was turned over when odds on on his seasonal reappearance at Taunton but then put the record straight at Plumpton last month with a 7 length victory when odds on once again. He has only been raised a pound for that victory and may have something in hand, but this is tougher and I personally think he has found his level. Bold Chief is a lightly raced 7 year old who is open to further improvement, he has claims in the back of his 2nd here in April behind Captain Sunshine. He reappeared at Kempton when he weakened tamely and was eventually pulled up, he also comes back in trip here which could be to his advantage, but there is enough to put me off. Tom Du Lys and Top Of The Range both make their seasonal bows for Nicky Henderson and have claims, the formers first run for the trainer last year came at Sandown on desperate ground, although he is French bred a return to a sounder surface here may assist. Nampour is likely to go from the front and has a chance but others are preferred whilst Dan Breen still has a win in him somewhere but this is competitive and he's more exposed than others. A tentative vote goes to Falcarragh. Tim Vaughan has had him on the go throughout the summer but his consistency is admirable and shows no sign of relenting. 4th in a 4 year old hurdle won by the talented Court Minstrel here in October was a good effort and he followed this up with a solid 3rd here again in November behind Ifandbutwhynot, the 2nd has won since. This looks a competitive contest once again and he has gone up 3lb for his last effort, but he is certain to run his race and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Falcarragh - 1pt EW @Bet365

1:55 - Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase

Midnight Chase is high enough in the handicap but returns to his favourite track for a race he has won before, 4/1 is a tad short but doesn't lack value.

I think you've got to look atwhich horses are using this race as a stepping stone to the Welsh National later in the month, consequently s few won't want to be showing there hands too early here. Bradley was a bit of an unlucky loser here last month when being nabbed by a 25/1 shot in ground that was testing, a drop back in 2 furlongs probably isn't ideal considering he was outpaced over 3 miles here in October. He can be found as short as 10/1 for the Welsh National but I don't know which race Fergal O'Brien is targeting, this race is worth £25,000 so if this is the target he does have strong claims. Quartz De Thaix is a much improved horse this year, Venetia Williams may have finally got the bottom of him as stamina tests have brought out the best in him. Chepstow is his target so it's unlikely he will want to play his hand here. Master Overseer has Chepstow on his radar and must improve after what was a dire run at Haydock last time out, whilst Billie Magern needs to put some disappointing efforts behind him. Becauseicouldntsee has a couple of 2nd placed finishes at the Festival to his name, he prefers the better ground he finds outside of Ireland but he runs off a career high mark of 145 and probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race, but wouldn't be without a chance. Saint Are is a bit of an Aintree specialist and prefers a flat track, can't help but feel this is a bit of an after thought following an early exit from the Hennessy 2 weeks ago. Planet Of Sound is gradually falling down the handicap and is off a workable mark of 152 here, he won the Haldon Gold Cup of this mark 3 years ago. His seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was a tame effort which is off-putting and the Hobbs team aren't in the best from, it's enough to make me look elsewhere. Which leaves course specialist Midnight Chase who looks to be handicapped to the hill off a mark of 160, but doesn't know how to run a bad race. He was ahead of Planet Of Sound in the Charlie Hall, although he ran in snatches it was an good effort considering both the 1st and 2nd have won since. This is a weaker contest, back at his favourite track in a race he has won before.

Advice - Midnight Chase - 3pt Win @4/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh.

@JoshRWDown

Tingle Creek Preview. The Showdown. Sprinter Sacre vs Sanctuaire.

The Tingle Creek Chase 2012. Sandown Racecourse. The fastest 2 mile chasers going head to head around the sternest jumping test in the country. A natural stepping stone to Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A superb roll of honour. It won't let us down.

Sizing Europe - was an awesome winner of the Tingle Creek  last year, but won't be present to defend his title

Sprinter Sacre has been dubbed many nicknames, an 'aeroplane' has been popular, but the most appropriate nickname, came to me in a blinding flash of inspiration whilst playing FIFA last night, put simply, Sprinter Sacre is the All Black, Jonah Lomu in equine form. In the words of youtube phenomenon Ksiolajidebt, a pure BEASSSSSSST.

Sprinter Sacre (Pictured Left) - Looks the real deal

Sanctuaire is a boeing 747, having left all passenger carrying aircraft in his wake, he now takes the step up to go head to head with a fighter jet, how will he fare?

The form at last years Arkle is working out unbelievably well. 2nd placed Cue Card ran riot in the Haldon Gold Cup, that 26 length victory has earned quotes of 13/2 for the King George later this month. 4th placed Al Ferof has subsequently won the Paddy Power Gold Cup and will oppose Cue Card in the Christmas spectacular at Kempton. Sprinter Sacre thumped these two at Cheltenham, his supremacy was almost embarrassing.

However, the Tingle Creek represents Sprinter Sacre's biggest test to date, Sanctuaire is the first horse that has the potential to really serve it up him. Going hard and fast from the front, asking the question on everyones lips, how good are ya pal? We saw on Sunday at Fairyhouse how good Ruby Walsh is at judging a race from the front, Arvika Ligeonniere decimated his rivals in the Drinmore Novice Chase, they couldn't get close to him. He performed similar master-strokes at Cheltenham 2 weeks ago when aboard Dodging Bullets and Far West. He is just the master and having him on board will assist Sanctuaire no end.


Nicky Henderson's superstar has done everything on his own terms so far in his career, he's just been far too classy for his rivals. Sanctuaire has the potential and the racing style to force Sprinter Sacre out of his comfort zone for the first time over fences, there's a possibility he could turn him over. Saying that, Sanctuaire could be the next horse in a long line that are made to look mere mortals, effortlessly swept past just after half way, his body language arrogantly illustrating his mindset : 'you're not good enough mate, thanks for trying'.

Sanctuaire - Judgement Day has arrived, can he be a Queen Mother candidate?

My prediction is he will be throwing his head around in 2nd place behind Ruby Walsh and Sanctuaire, I genuinely think he's bored, it all comes to easily to him, he just wants to go faster. If he's racing like this after half a mile, Sanctuiare is a sitting duck. However if that head is still, we've got a race on. It ultimately means Sanctuaire is a worthy opponent who has achieved what no other horse has achieved, he's got Sprinter Sacre to settle. Sanctuaire will say 'catch me if you can' and it will simply depend on whether Sprinter Sacre can. In my eyes, it's as simple as that.

I think Sprinter Sacre will have Sanctuaire's measure, why wouldn't you? On the basis of last year you can't argue he won't, he's not bombproof, but you've got to be a brave man to oppose him with any confidence.

It is fair to say that this looks to be a mouth watering clash between two heavyweights of the national hunt scene, the anticipation is at fever pitch, record this race, as it has the potential to be something you keep stored on your sky + for the considerable future.

Comments Welcome. Contact me through Twitter:

@JoshRWDown