Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 1

Supreme Novices Hurdle

My Tent Or Yours looks to snap
 the losing run of short priced
 favourites in the Supreme

I am sitting pretty here having backed current market leader MY TENT OR YOURS at 20/1 ante-post. His Betfair Hurdle romp was the most impressive performance so far this season and I expect him to go very very close here. Unlike other shorties who have been turned over in previous years, he has proved himself outside of novice company, also none were within 5lb of his current rating 162, he should also get a strong pace to help him settle. The main worry is a lack of course form, whether he will handle the undulations is unknown and there is every chance he may prefer a flat track. Jezki has been duffing up horses that are below this standard in small fields this season. On his only visit to Cheltenham, in last years bumper, he was a very disappointing 8th having not appeared to handle the hustle and bustle or undulations. All things considered others are preferred. Champagne Fever was turned over comprehensively by Jezki at Fairyhouse in December, he is the choice of Ruby Walsh and you would imagine he will try to burn them off from the front. The stiff track will suit and he jumps well, but I feel this trip is short of his optimum and he may be lacking pace when it matters, he is too short at 6/1. Dodging Bullets has won twice at the track this term in muddling races, he is absolutely rock solid but has been deserted by Ruby Walsh and acts best on better ground. I think he lacks the x-factor required to win this contest but if he continues to drift he will represent some each way value. River Maigue is another who would be suited by better ground, the form behind Dodging Bullets here in November leaves him with a bit to find, he has been friendless in the market having been as short at 8/1 around Christmas. Those aren't positive signs and he is best watched at 14/1. CAUSES OF CAUSES has something to prove after tailing off in the Betfair Hurdle. He gave the blog a great pay day when taking the Ladbroke earlier in the season and is one who could run into a place, his form is solid and he will handle the track. Cheltenian ran a cracker off a long break at Doncaster on his reappearance, the 2011 Champion Bumper winner looks to have a lot on his plate on only his second start over hurdles, the form of his bumper winner hasn't worked out too well either. Puffin Billy is a tall, gangly type who will appreciate a fence in time. He doesn't look to have grown into his body and I worry that lack of physical immaturity will count against him here, he probably won't want too much racing at this stage of his career and is coming back off a disappointing run at Exeter. He has never ran in as competitive race as this, wants further in time and to these eyes hasn't proven he finds a lot off the bridle yet, enough to prove for a 14/1 shot. UN ATOUT will undoubtedly want further in time and looks a serious novice chaser for next year. The son of Robin Des Champs (Sir Des Champs sire), hasn't come off the bridle in two hurdles starts this season and is a real unknown quantity, the ground will suit, he should be doing all his best work at the business end of race. Davy Russell put him up as one of the best horses he's ridden last week and at 7/1 he is one I wan't to keep on side.

Advice - Previosuly Advised -  My Tent Or Yours @20/1 
Un Atout 2pt Win @7/1 Ladbrokes/Stan James
Cause Of Causes 1pt E/W @40/1 Ladrokes

Arkle

Simonsig looks banker material

The ground conditions have gone against Overturn in recent days, although even if the race was run on good ground I couldn't see him getting close to SIMONSIG. I have no doubt that if Simonsig ran in this years Champion Hurdle he would vying for favouritism, he has pace to burn and his jumping has been flawless, although it hasn't been tested so far I don't have many worries that is will fall apart when under pressure. His preparation hasn't been ideal having only had two starts during a week in December, the experience may be lacking but class is there in abundance and more than makes up for it, he is also ground versatile. I have backed him ante-post at 3/1, he is my banker of the week (not including Sprinter Sacre), therefore 4/6 is still value. Overturn races one way and will go hard from the front, my opinion is he will set the race up for Simonsig, additionally Cheltenham isn't his ideal track. Arvika Ligeonniere will probably be the best of the rest but won't get his own way up front which is a negative, Majala will appreciate the ground but surely won't have the class, much like Tap Night who would also appreciate further. Baily Green and His Excellency have plenty to find.

Advice - Simonsig 4pt Win @4/6 Stan James

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Knockara Beau is admirably
 consistent at Cheltenham,
likes soft ground and stays well

Like many handicaps at the festival, there are strong trends that give you a great guide as how to approach these ultra competitive races. Only one horse in the last 10 years has carried over 11 stone, of those all were aged 7 to 10 and 7 had previous festival form. FRUITY O'ROONEY is an ante-post selection at 16/1, last years runner-up runs here off a 1lb lower mark, is rock solid, very consistent and has all the credentials of a horse who will make the shake up. Before Alfie Sherrin last year, the last 4 winners had been rated between 142 and 143, one horse falls into that category this year, KNOCKARA BEAU. Soft ground won't be an issue and his Cheltenham form is very good. Beaten 20 lengths in last years Gold Cup, he was 10 lengths clear of Midnight Chase but receives 10lb from that horse here. He stays all day and fits the mould of horse who has gone well in this race before, off a mark of 142 16/1 is good each-way value. Merry King represents Jonjo O'Neill who has won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race, he looks to have been laid out for the race having been narrowly denied in the Tommy Whittle and the the first time cheek pieces are of interest. Strong claims but main worry is he is only a 6 year old and may be lacking experience for such a competitive handicap, although he should stay well, but the value has gone from his price. Our Mick returns on a mark 1lb above when 3rd last year, he was unfortunate to unseat at Cheltenham on trials day and should go well, but is hasn't gone unnoticed and the value in his price has gone too. Loch Ba is another younger, unexposed horse whose jumping hasn't convinced but he did get it all together last time out at Newbury. Up 12lb for that win, he comes in here on a steep upward curve but 12/1 isn't any value to these eyes, no course form is also a negative. The Package went close in this 3 years ago but will probably pay the price for his impressive win at Wincanton at the start of the season. Quartz De Thaix, Midnight Chase, Planet Of Sound, Cloudy Too and Hey Big Spender are all to high in the handicap. Quantitativeeasing has been out of form and would prefer better ground, his stable mate Nadiya De La Vega steps up to 3 miles for the first time. She appears in the hands of the handicapper over 2 1/2 miles but it's feasible the extra trip could bring out some further improvement, 9/10 winners had won over 3 miles though. White Star Line doesn't jump well enough to justify his price, the form of his 2nd behind Hunt Ball last year was probably the weakest race of last years Festival. Munkerty Tunkerty is a horse on the upward curve having been a late starter to national hunt racing, I worry if a lack of experience may count against him. Pete The Feat and Jadanli have reached their levels, Tullamore Dew is on the downgrade and would prefer better ground, Tour Des Champs and Nuts N Bolts are progressive novices but have a bit to find and don't fit the vital trends.

Advice - Previously Advised - Fruity O'Rooney E/W @16/1
Knockara Beau 1.5pt E/W @16/1 Bet Victor

Champion Hurdle
Follow this think to read my thoughts on the feature race of day one.

Cross Country

Bostons Angel is the class act
 in the race, would prefer
 better ground but handled testing
 conditions over course
 and distance in  December

There is plenty of dead wood in this race, it is a tricky betting proposition as in the past they have crawled for 3 1/2 miles, before racing properly in the last half mile. Last year Balthazar King snapped a 7 year losing streak for the English but it may pay to follow the Irish again this year. Arabella Boy heads the market following his victory at Punchestown, he didn't appear to be in love with Cheltenham in December but does represent top trainer Enda Bolger and will love the soft ground, but 4/1 is a tad short. Outlaw Pete won the aforementioned December running of the Cross Country and should go well in the soft ground, he is high enough in the weights and I worry about his inexperienced jockey. BOSTONS ANGEL is my ante-post bet at 12/1, better ground would suit but he this unique contest has sharpened him up and he's a grade 1 winner in the past. He still represents some value at 9/1 so I would be happy to go in again. Uncle Junior has made the November renewal of this race his own in the last two years, he appeared to get behind on the quick ground last year so the slower ground should suit, two top weights have taken this but he's got to give at least 12lb all round, which will be difficult. There's no reason to think BIG SHU can't reverse placing with Arabella Boy from Punchestown, along with Any Currency and Saddlers Storm they all have chances at bigger prices in what can be a very unpredictable race.

Advice - Previously Advised - Bostons Angel @12/1
Big Shu 1pt E/W @12/1 Ladbrokes

Mares Hurdle
I'm not going to oppose Quevega for the sake of having a bet in the race so this is a watching race for me, hopefully we will see her equal Golden Millers record of winning at 5 consecutive festivals!

Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Carlito Brigante would prefer
 better ground but must go well

Colour Squadron is fancied as a well handicapped horse who can finally get it all together over fences to record his first victory, he has been knocking on the door this season and this smells of a handicap plot. His jumping hasn't impressed and therefore I'm happy to take him on at 6/1. Shangani looks to continue his winning ways and is strongly fancied to do so, Venetia Williams has had a brilliant season, placing horses of Shangani's mould excellently to take many handicaps. The price has gone at 8/1 though, his form doesn't justify that price. The Druids Nephew is an interesting horse. If you take a form line through Grandioso, a subsequent grade 2 winner who he beat by 10 lengths, he looks off an interesting mark at 135. Holds every chance with a lot in his favour. CARLITO BRIGANTE is absolutely thrown in on his best hurdles form, off 137 he is 18lb below his peak hurdle mark roughly and is 5lb below the mark when hacking up in the 2011 Coral Cup. He has loads of Cheltenham form and has plenty of chasing experience. He was bang there behind Dynaste two out in November, he was also giving the current Jewson favourite 8lb. The ground is a massive worry, he will want it better than it currently is but it he could potentially be so well in that it won't hinder too much. I'm hoping for a big run having backed him at 12/1 ante-post, Gordon Elliot has said he will be disappointed if he's not in the three. Radjhani Express is still high in the handicap following his runaway victory on Boxing Day, he looked held at Cheltenham on trials day. Hazy Tom hasn't jumped well enough this season to suggest he will be able to stay competitive here, Johns Spirit has the potential to go close if reproducing his good second to Katenko at Sandown although he is prone to mistakes. Vulcanite steps up to 2 1/2 miles for the first time, he hasn't convinced over fences this year, his form leaves him with a bit to find. Arthur's Pass looks to extend his winning streak to 4 and sneaks in off a light weight, both he and Ohio Gold have decent each-way claims if there jumping stands up now up in grade. Forgotten Gold and Restless Harry want further than this, whilst Howards Legacy and Fourjacks have been highly tried and aren't without a chance if coping with the hustle and bustle of a handicap.

Advice - Previously Advised - Carlito Brigante @12/1
The Druids Nephew 2pt Win @7/1 William Hill

Cheers,

Josh