12:35 - 2 Mile Novice Hurdle
Selection - Mr Mole 1/3 N/B
Selection - Mr Mole 1/3 N/B
I think this horse should be able to defy his 6 pound penalty. Although I'm not going anywhere near him at that price. This race does look quite open. I don't know much of the opposition, consequently I would be looking for horses with the top trainers to provide the biggest threat. The in form Alan King saddles Jojabean, his form is ok but nothing special. Another in form trainer is Colin Tizzard, he runs Kings Lad who is a course winner and has come up against some nice types. He looks a better bet than Jojabean and the newcomer from the Hobbs stable Kap Gun.
1:40 - Mares Handicap Hurdle
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| Tante Sissi (Yellow Cap) - She Recieves Weight And Should Go Close If She's Improved |
Selection - Tante Sissi 4/1
I have backed Tante Sissi at 5/1. Alan King has stated in his 'Weekender' column that this mare is one he's really looking forward to this weekend. She was workmanlike in victory at Newbury on 'Greatwood' day in a Mares Hurdle when she had Miss Milborne behind, who she has a 2lb pull at the weights with today. That was probably her season done there and then and I think her at Cheltenham in April where she ran below par was 1 to many. The King stable are in good form and she is only 5 so I hope she will have improved over the summer. Violin Davies sets the standard and is probably the most likely winner on the back of her success over Kentford Grey Lady at Ascot, but I think she will struggle to concede 8 lb to my horse. A threat could be the unexposed Lucy Wadham trained All Annalena, she's been on the go on the flat during the summer so she should be fit for this. Her form doesn't jump out at you but I think she could improve as a second season hurdler this year.
2:15 - Rising Stars Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night 6/1
You readers will know I fancied him for the 2 1/2 novice chase won by Carlito Brigante at Cheltenham last month, he jumped nicely albeit a bit right handed. Consequently I think going right handed today will assist him, also I can't help but feel Noel Fehily wasn't all that serious with him and never quite put the gun to his head. Hopefully, he can build on that performance and be a serious contender in this contest. The better the ground, the better he goes so hopefully the rain stays away, although it appears it's going to rain through the night in Wincanton. However, I will take the punt at the prices. 6/1 is better value to me than 7/4 or 2/1 about Poungach, backing Paul Nicholls novice chasers isn't the worst idea because you can almost guarantee they will jump superbly. Although this horse didn't get very far on his debut, it was a bit unlucky and he is obviously fancied to go well here. Based on hurdles form he and King Of The Night, rated 155 and 157 respectively, should have the race between them. Aegean Dawn and Court In Motion are very good horses and it's brilliant to have them back from injury, although I'm not a man to who likes backing horses coming from a lay off, I think their best watched. Houblon Des Obeaux was quite impressive on his chase debut at Worcester where he jumped and travelled well, that was 3 miles and all his form over hurdles is at 3 miles too, I think he may get outpaced today on a flat track over a trip on that is on the sharp side.
2:50 - Elite Hurdle
Selection - Balder Succes 3/1
Balder Succes just strikes me as a real improver this year. He may not be the best horse in the race and he will have to improve to compete here, but I'm optimistic he has. The trip and ground should be fine although he would probably prefer a bit more dig in the ground, but the rain is due to arrive. In relation to Zarkandar, I think he's the most likely winner. He is still a bit of an unknown quantity and Paul Nicholls has had a clear run with him this autumn, consequently he thinks he has him right this year. On all given form, he should laugh at these. However, the 2 mile rip is probably slightly shorter than ideal. He was staying on in the Champion Hurdle having been done for a bit of toe coming down the hill, I worry this may happen again tomorrow on a flat track. He has to concede a lot of weight today, this worries me when he's against horses who are on the upgrade. If he gets bigger than 3/1 than I think I may be changing my mind on my selection though, he deserves to be shorter and at least favourite in my opinion. Daryl Jacob retains a partnership that has been relatively successful while Ruby sides with Prospect Wells, who may also prefer an extra half mile but it will be interesting to see how he has improved over the summer. I don't think he would have to improve that much to be close to Zarkandar considering he receives 17lbs off him today, his novice hurdle form was pretty good but I worry he may get outpaced like his stable mate. I don't believe Local Hero or any of the rest are good enough, it's between the above 3 and at the current prices, I will side with the Alan King horse.
3:25 - Badger Ales Trophy
Selection - Diamond Harry 7/1
I wouldn't walk into many of these to be honest. Why they can't win: Golden Chieftain is going to struggle after his 15lb rise from Worcester, surely Tizzard has messed up by running him in that race? He would be a shoe in off 127, although I think he may need a stiff track ideally. I see no reason why Zarrafakt can't win. Emma Lavelle has just started to hit form and this horse was a solid handicap chaser last term. His run at the Festival was disappointing though, I fear that a mark of 142 may be a tad too high. The Package has had support in the market and goes well fresh, I'm worried he may get swept off his feet round this flat track, the same can be said for West End Rocker. I feel the ground will be too soft for Aimigayle. Ballyallia Man could go close if he improves for his summer excursions, he had a nice spin round Chepstow to sharpen him up last month and he could be thrown in off 10 stone. It's a bonus that Tom George is coming into form too. Michel Le Bon has been trained for this and Paul Nicholls has an unbelievable record in the contest, his solitary novice chase win has worked out well when he had Pettifour, Bench Warrent and Cannington Brook behind him that day. He has decent form and has a lot in his favour today, he ranks just behind Diamond Harry who is known to go well first time out. He is immensely talented on his day and is now back to a mark of 150, he won the Hennessy off 156. Nick Williams will have him fit and is in decent form, booking of top jocky Noel Fehily is a good sign too. If he can recapture his old form he must go well against horses he would laugh at on his day.
I have backed Tante Sissi at 5/1. Alan King has stated in his 'Weekender' column that this mare is one he's really looking forward to this weekend. She was workmanlike in victory at Newbury on 'Greatwood' day in a Mares Hurdle when she had Miss Milborne behind, who she has a 2lb pull at the weights with today. That was probably her season done there and then and I think her at Cheltenham in April where she ran below par was 1 to many. The King stable are in good form and she is only 5 so I hope she will have improved over the summer. Violin Davies sets the standard and is probably the most likely winner on the back of her success over Kentford Grey Lady at Ascot, but I think she will struggle to concede 8 lb to my horse. A threat could be the unexposed Lucy Wadham trained All Annalena, she's been on the go on the flat during the summer so she should be fit for this. Her form doesn't jump out at you but I think she could improve as a second season hurdler this year.
2:15 - Rising Stars Novice Chase
Selection - King Of The Night 6/1
You readers will know I fancied him for the 2 1/2 novice chase won by Carlito Brigante at Cheltenham last month, he jumped nicely albeit a bit right handed. Consequently I think going right handed today will assist him, also I can't help but feel Noel Fehily wasn't all that serious with him and never quite put the gun to his head. Hopefully, he can build on that performance and be a serious contender in this contest. The better the ground, the better he goes so hopefully the rain stays away, although it appears it's going to rain through the night in Wincanton. However, I will take the punt at the prices. 6/1 is better value to me than 7/4 or 2/1 about Poungach, backing Paul Nicholls novice chasers isn't the worst idea because you can almost guarantee they will jump superbly. Although this horse didn't get very far on his debut, it was a bit unlucky and he is obviously fancied to go well here. Based on hurdles form he and King Of The Night, rated 155 and 157 respectively, should have the race between them. Aegean Dawn and Court In Motion are very good horses and it's brilliant to have them back from injury, although I'm not a man to who likes backing horses coming from a lay off, I think their best watched. Houblon Des Obeaux was quite impressive on his chase debut at Worcester where he jumped and travelled well, that was 3 miles and all his form over hurdles is at 3 miles too, I think he may get outpaced today on a flat track over a trip on that is on the sharp side.
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| Zarkandar (Centre) |
Selection - Balder Succes 3/1
Balder Succes just strikes me as a real improver this year. He may not be the best horse in the race and he will have to improve to compete here, but I'm optimistic he has. The trip and ground should be fine although he would probably prefer a bit more dig in the ground, but the rain is due to arrive. In relation to Zarkandar, I think he's the most likely winner. He is still a bit of an unknown quantity and Paul Nicholls has had a clear run with him this autumn, consequently he thinks he has him right this year. On all given form, he should laugh at these. However, the 2 mile rip is probably slightly shorter than ideal. He was staying on in the Champion Hurdle having been done for a bit of toe coming down the hill, I worry this may happen again tomorrow on a flat track. He has to concede a lot of weight today, this worries me when he's against horses who are on the upgrade. If he gets bigger than 3/1 than I think I may be changing my mind on my selection though, he deserves to be shorter and at least favourite in my opinion. Daryl Jacob retains a partnership that has been relatively successful while Ruby sides with Prospect Wells, who may also prefer an extra half mile but it will be interesting to see how he has improved over the summer. I don't think he would have to improve that much to be close to Zarkandar considering he receives 17lbs off him today, his novice hurdle form was pretty good but I worry he may get outpaced like his stable mate. I don't believe Local Hero or any of the rest are good enough, it's between the above 3 and at the current prices, I will side with the Alan King horse.
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| Diamond Harry - I'm Praying It's A Going Day! |
Selection - Diamond Harry 7/1
I wouldn't walk into many of these to be honest. Why they can't win: Golden Chieftain is going to struggle after his 15lb rise from Worcester, surely Tizzard has messed up by running him in that race? He would be a shoe in off 127, although I think he may need a stiff track ideally. I see no reason why Zarrafakt can't win. Emma Lavelle has just started to hit form and this horse was a solid handicap chaser last term. His run at the Festival was disappointing though, I fear that a mark of 142 may be a tad too high. The Package has had support in the market and goes well fresh, I'm worried he may get swept off his feet round this flat track, the same can be said for West End Rocker. I feel the ground will be too soft for Aimigayle. Ballyallia Man could go close if he improves for his summer excursions, he had a nice spin round Chepstow to sharpen him up last month and he could be thrown in off 10 stone. It's a bonus that Tom George is coming into form too. Michel Le Bon has been trained for this and Paul Nicholls has an unbelievable record in the contest, his solitary novice chase win has worked out well when he had Pettifour, Bench Warrent and Cannington Brook behind him that day. He has decent form and has a lot in his favour today, he ranks just behind Diamond Harry who is known to go well first time out. He is immensely talented on his day and is now back to a mark of 150, he won the Hennessy off 156. Nick Williams will have him fit and is in decent form, booking of top jocky Noel Fehily is a good sign too. If he can recapture his old form he must go well against horses he would laugh at on his day.
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