The Horse Racing Blog Ten Dark Horses To Follow For The National Hunt Season 2012/2013

1. Peddlers Cross

Some may ask how a Champion Hurdle runner-up is a dark horse? The answer is simple. 2012/2013 is a recovery mission for Peddlers Cross. He was last seen finishing well down the field in the 2m 5f Jewson Novice Chase when favourite at the Cheltenham Festival, after which his trainer Donald McCain immediately stated his stable star would revert back to hurdles in 2012/2013. That run at Cheltenham brought to an end what was ultimately an unsuccessful novice chasing campaign. His efforts over fences never replicated his brilliance over the smaller obstacles. It seemed the natural athleticism and spine-tingling speed at which he could get from one side of a hurdle to the other were not present when he jumped a fence. I would attribute this to being his main downfall and would help to explain why he never appeared to recapture the form he displayed over hurdles. It was undisputed that he was top class over hurdles and I think the gelding has sneaked under the radar a bit for this coming season. At 25-1 ante-post for the Champion Hurdle, I think he is real value assuming that all is well with his health. I say this as I think there may have been a bit of a problem with Peddlers Cross last year. Donald McCain constantly re-iterated that his horse was working as well as ever at home, but a decision on his Cheltenham Festival target was consistently delayed. Whether he was simply papering over the cracks, or connections were running scared of Sprinter Sacre, I don't know, I'm afraid. But I'm 99% certain there was more to it than met the eye. My gut feeling tells me that Peddlers Cross was not firing on all cylinders. Hopefully after a summer off and some time to recharge the batteries, this horse will justify my faith in him when putting up bold displays in the top class 2 mile
hurdles this year.

2. Champion Court

The horse I call the 'bridesmaid'. Always in the shake up, never runs a bad race,  but always finds one too good. He was 2nd on numerous occasions in novice chases last year, notably to Grands Crus at the Open Meeting in November and then more recently to Sir Des Champs at the Festival. Like so many front-running chasers he races with real zest and loves to attack his fences. It just depends on whether there is one good enough to get passed him. There are never two, but nearly always one ! In my opinion he is a 2 and a half miler. He gets every yard of the trip and making it a stamina test through his front-running style is the ideal way to ride him. Stepping him up to 3 miles means he is less effective when ridden from the front. Unfortunately, finishing runner up on so many occasions has come at a cost. Getting so close to the top class novices (but being so far ahead of the others !) has meant his handicap rating of 155 is very similar to those who have been his conquerors. Grands Crus is rated 157 and Silviniaco Conti, 156. Therefore if these horses run up to their ratings next year, the case of 'seconditus' he caught last year could be present again in 2012/2013. However, he may well still be on the upgrade and second season chasers have excellent records in the big handicaps, such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup. His trainer, Martin Keighley, has stated that his horse will probably start in a graduation chase as he thinks it may not be fair for his stable star to run consistently well in handicaps and ruin his handicap mark. In conclusion, I feel the coming year will be another difficult one for Champion Court unless he has considerably improved over the summer. I expect to see him living up to the name I have dubbed him once again this year. He is however a swinger certainty, so make sure he is on your slip, whoever else you may fancy!

3. Tistory

Carries the tag of being the most exciting novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard this year. He is owned by Judy Wilson whose blue and green silks are synonymous with crowd favourites such as French Opera and Greenhope. Coincidently Tistory is a half brother to Punchestowns, possibly the most talented horse to carry Judy Wilson's colours. The gelding has won three bumpers, two in France and one in England - a battling win by 3/4 length at Ludlow on March 1st. This win brought about plans for a trip over the Irish Sea to compete in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown. However, a ruling about the races Tistory had won in France prevented him from competing.  For those who care, the bumpers he won were non-thoroughbred, as such they are classified as flat races in Ireland whereas they are not in England. Basically, making things pointlessly complicated. Nonetheless, the bottomless underfoot conditions probably would have meant the horse would've been withdrawn anyway. Nicky Henderson was speaking at his owners open day on Sunday where he was happy to express his high hopes for the novice hurdler this year. His exact description was, 'Tistory is undoubtedly one of our big hopes for novice hurdle honours this year'. In simpler words. This horse is one to have on your betting slip.

4. Last Instalment

Which horse was the best staying novice chaser in Ireland last year? First Lieutenant , Last Instalment or Sir Des Champs? (wouldn't mind to be Michael O'Leary when you think of these 3 horses, however much I dislike flying with Ryanair!) Unfortunately, we were deprived of seeing the true outcome last year when Last Instalment was injured in action whilst winning the Dr P.J Moriarty novice chase at Leopardstown in February. The 7 year old is unbeaten over fences, defeating some high class horses in doing so. Most notably Cheltenham Festival runner-up First Lieutenant and 3rd place finisher Four Commanders. Up until now, he has readily swept aside his competitors in a rather nonchalant manner. He just carries on galloping until he grinds his rivals into the ground. Very similar to how Denman used to race. I'm not saying he has the quality of Denman, but his main attribute is to stay, not to do his competitors for toe! In other words he could be put into the bracket as 'an old fashioned, proper staying chaser'. His victory over First Lieutenant at Leopardstown at Christmas was very impressive. First Lieutenant couldn't live with the Phillip Fenton trained gelding that day. Last Instalment appeared to crack him by simply galloping him into the ground. However, I am aware that First Lieutenant runs his best race at Cheltenham in the spring on a stiff track when the ground is firmer. Bearing this in mind, I think its a fair argument that First Lieutenant's efforts in the winter are not a fair reflection of how good he is. However, at the end of the day, he was thumped by Last Instalment over Christmas and I don't think he ran that poorly that day. Last Instalment then proceeded to win the Dr P.J Moriarty at Leopardstown in his normal nonchalant manner, while injured I hasten to add. Also I think the fact he is a true 'staying chaser' is to his benefit. I can see him 'out-staying' horses in long distance races this year. If the Gold Cup is his main target, I think a stiff track such as Cheltenham and a true dog eat dog finish up the hill will play to his strengths.

5. Balder Succes

When stepped up in class to the top quality juvenile races last spring his form figures read: fell after a mile and unseated rider at the 1st. So we have no possible inclination of how good he may be. However if we take his 3 wins prior to Cheltenham and Punchestown, he could be anything. The gelding won in ultra-impressive style on all 3 occasions and was not asked a question in all 3 races. When he went to Cheltenham all the talk surrounding this horse was around whether he would he be able to act on a sounder surface as he had done in those 3 crushing wins when the ground had more give. His starting price of 15-2 tells you that nobody really knew and unfortunately we still don't! The TV screen didn't give you a very conclusive view of his fall in the Triumph at Cheltenham. I'm just wondering whether they were going half a stride to quick for him on the firmer ground? He didn't seem to be struggling before his fall, but you wonder as the fall came at the hurdle after the pace was injected into the race. The race at Punchestown was just one of those days. He was awkward at the first and left Choc Thornton with no chance but to exit via the side door. Oh well, as Grandma always says, there's always tomorrow! Your guess as to how good Balder Succes is are as good as mine. One thing I do think is that he will relish a step up in trip as 2 miles is on the sharp side for him. I think 2m 4f is his optimum distance and he will be stepped up to this trip after a warm up race, maybe in what was the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham at the Open Meeting.

6. New Years Eve

If you attended a 2012 Cheltenham Festival preview evening in Newmarket last year, you will be aware of the supreme confidence surrounding one horse - and it wasn't Frankel for once! It was about a horse from John Ferguson's yard who had won 2 egg and spoon bumper races around Ludlow and Market Rasen. Heading into the Champion Bumper, New Years Eve appeared to be the only horse that could win the race. He was backed into 9-2 favourite and the amount of confidence behind him was unbelievable! Unfortunately, the event turned into a bit of a damp squid when the gelding finished 2nd having failed to quicken past Champagne Fever up the hill. In hindsight, only one horse has headed Champagne Fever and New Years Eve probably came closest to repeating this in the most competitive bumper of the year. Ferguson then sent the horse to Punchestown for their Champion Bumper in April. The race was run in a bog and New Years Eve was effectively pulled up on the home bend and finished walking across the line. I think he simply hated the ground. The fact is that this horse is obviously extremely talented and could be a very exciting recruit to the novice hurdle ranks this year. I think he may prefer good ground, if this is the case it would possibly suggest he will run his best races in the spring when the ground dries out. Bearing this in mind he may be a Supreme Novice hurdle contender for the Festival 2013.

7. Montbazon

One of my favourite horses in training. I've always got the feeling that Alan King thinks this horse could be exceptionally good. He is one of three horses at his yard that are stepping up from the novice hurdle ranks this year that all look high class. Grumeti, Balder Succes and Montbazon, which one is the best? The answer is...pass. I have no idea. But I've always got the sense that this horse has a real soft spot in his trainers heart. He was near enough the best bumper horse around the year before last. That campaign culminated in a second place finish behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper. Although, I am never convinced how strong a form line this race is with previous winners such as Megastar, Sitting Tennant and Pangbourne not going on to be anything special. However, Montbazon did beat home that year high class novice hurdlers such as 2012 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob. He started last year in the bumper at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November, which I was there to see. He finished third but didn't look anywhere near properly tuned up and looked a bit fat in addition to Alan Kings horses running poorly for all 3 days of the meeting. His novice hurdle campaign began at Newbury with a difficult debut task against the classy Colour Squadron, going off at 5-1, he finished a creditable 2nd, beaten a length. He then won a confidence building exercise around Plumpton against a bunch of trees before heading back to Newbury to renew rivalries with Colour Squadron. In the meantime Colour Squadron would have probably won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown if he could run in a straight line! Montbazon won that day at Newbury putting in their place other promising hurdlers such as All The Aces and Vulcanite, although he was assisted by Colour Squadron's fall at the second last, I think that Montbazon just about had him held. The end of year assessment loomed at Cheltenham the following month. Starting at 15-2 in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he never quite jumped with the slickness and fluency required to stay in contention in the 2 mile helter skelter opener to the Festival. However, stay in contention he did! He was bang there at the last with eventual winner Cinders And Ashes whose mistake at the last, where he knocked the hurdle flat, probably put off Montbazon who put in an awkward leap at the hurdle. The gelding kept tabs with the top four and finished 1 3/4 lengths 4th. Not a bad effort! A real improvement on his other runs where horses he had beaten before such as Vulcanite and Colour Sqaudron were well over 10 lengths behind him. I don't know what Alan King has in plan for this horse this year. I would imagine the plan is to stick to hurdles for another season and we may see him entered in the top 2 mile hurdle races this year. I remember Alan King saying Montbazon was quite hard to train because he suffers with chronic sore shins. Bearing this in mind, I don't know how many times he will appear this season but I would advise you to look out for him when he does.

8. Tetlami

Probably Nicky Henderson's 2nd best 2 mile novice hurdler last year after Darlan - who was probably  just about the best of them all. After two pretty promising novice hurdle victories at Sandown and Kempton beating decent horses such as Vulcanite and Knight Pass, he won a 'jumpers bumper' at Kempton as his prep run for a crack at the Supreme Novice Hurdle. He was bang in contention at the third last and looked a likely winner before fading to finish 9th beaten 12 lengths. However, if you look at the scope of this chestnut you would say he is made for chasing. I don't know what the plan is for this horse but I hope he goes novice chasing this winter. This is because I would imagine he will be a better chaser than he was a hurdler. I also think he has the ability to be a really smart smart horse over 2 or 2 1/2 miles where he can use his natural speed and scope to take lengths out of his rivals through jumping with accuracy at real pace. Personally, I think he fits the mould of a smart novice chaser who could put in a bold display in the Grand Annual at The Festival. Previous winners such as Bellvano, Oh Crick and Pigeon Island were all novices.

9. Sonofvic

This is a contentious selection. He would have been in many peoples ten to follow at this time last year after a promising hurdler career was switched to novice chasing. He was supposed to excel last year over the bigger obstacles and was the source of much ante-post RSA betting interest. However, not all went to plan. A very good effort behind Grands Crus on his debut meant he was only beaten 2 lengths by the ante-post RSA favourite. It was his next run on New Years Day that baffled me. Constant re-iteration that he was really classy from his trainer Paul Nicholls and his promising debut run meant there was massive market confidence behind the horse as he was sent off 6-5 favourite. He was a staying on 5th when he slipped on landing taking the fence at the top of the hill and left Ruby Walsh with almost no chance. Somehow he managed to keep the partnership intact and finish the race aboard the 7 year old. Disregarding Ruby Walsh's brilliance in the saddle, he wasn't winning the race and it was ultimately a poor effort when everything looked so positive. After that his novice chase campaign was scrapped so he could mature a bit more mentally and physically. Remember this horse has only seen a racecourse 5 times so is still relatively inexperienced. He was kept off the track until the Cheltenham Festival came along in March where he was entered in the Pertempts Final 3 mile hurdle race. Although he fell at the last and the Racing Post description says 'weakening', he was only 7 lengths 5th at the time. For a horse who had never run in a hustly bustly handicap and was competing against very experienced handicappers, I thought it was a really good effort. With another summers maturing I think Sonofvic could prove to be the horse that everyone has been crowing about for the last 2 years. By fulfilling his potential I expect to see him putting in bold displays in staying novice chases this season. I think he is a horse that needs a stiff track and a stamina test to see him in his best light. Therefore, I would imagine he will be a regular visitor to tracks such as Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury.

10. Mount Benbulben

Gordon Elliot normally has one horse lined up for a victory at the Cheltenham Festival and he's normally pretty vocal in doing so! At the 2011 Festival he had two winners in the shape of Chicago Grey and Carlito Brigante. Both had been beautifully laid out for their races and both won with a bit in hand too. At the 2012 Festival he didn't have a winner.  I suppose you can never expect too much from the most competitive racing festival in the world ! However, the horse he was very vocal about this year was Mount Benbulben. Apparently the gelding had been working superbly on the gallops and had a brilliant chance in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Gold Cup Day. He was comprehensively beaten the best part of 20 lengths, finishing 7th. His form before that run had stacked up pretty well. In previous runs he had beaten subsequent Punchestown Champion Bumper winner Lovethehigherlaw around Limerick. Over hurdles he had beaten subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Rebel Fitz and he had also got the better of Jetson who went on to win the valuable Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. The only horse who had beaten him over hurdles last year was Boston Bob, the best novice hurdler to come out of Ireland last year. I think there were 3 or 4 competing to be the second best and this horse was right up there. I don't know quite what happened at Cheltenham. Perhaps he ran not 100% like many of Gordon Elliot's horses did that week or maybe his first effort on good ground and over 3 miles had caught him out. I think he may require a bit of cut in the ground, but if he does get it, I think this horse could be a serious threat in staying hurdles in Ireland this year.