Who will be champion trainer?
What will be the winning margin of AP McCoy's jockeys title this year?
Can last years novices compete with the proven big players?
Perhaps the most exciting aspect of a new season is what horses will be making the transition from hurdling to chasing in the coming year? Every year an exciting crop of talented hurdlers embark on their novice season over fences and is ultimately a pivotal step for horses enabling them to write the story lines that are made by the prestigious chases over the national hunt season.
Additionally, after witnessing potentially one of the best novice chasers ever seen last year in the form of Sprinter Sacre, who could blame me for being excited at what this years crop could contain!
Cemented himself as the top novice hurdler over 2m 4f last term with two devastating victories at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring. Nicky Henderson believes a drop back in trip would suit rather than a step up as he feels Simonsig has a lot of natural speed suggesting that he is more of a speed horse than a stayer. His high cruising speed should assist him over 2 miles and help Geraghty get other horses off the bridle and his natural scope would suggest that jumping a fence should not be an issue, in fact Henderson said the reason he ran over 2m 4f last term was to help his jumping as hurdles seemed to just 'get in the way'. Simonsig is definitely a horse for the short-list and is ante-post favourite for the Arkle, but 3-1 at the moment doesn't express any value to me when there are so many unexposed horses going novice chasing this winter.
Fingal Bay: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=776899#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form
In terms of how the form stacks up, Fingal Bay doesn't send the alarm bells ringing like Simonsig (although Fingal Bay did get the better of Simonsig at Sandown last year over 2m 4f). However, campaigned at staying novice hurdles last year, Fingal Bay could not be faulted only losing in the Sefton at Aintree (prefers softer ground and interfered by fallen horse were adequate excuses) whilst also racking up wins in the Challow hurdle and at The Open Meeting. He is almost certain to be extended up to 3miles which would suggest that the RSA is potentially the main target. To win that race the main characteristic that a horse requires in such a grueling contest is to stay, in my opinion this is Fingal Bay's greatest attribute. An issue may be whether he goes novice chasing this year or delay the inevitable until 2013/2014, the dilemma Philip Hobbs faces is whether to take on Big Bucks (the greatest of them all!!!) in the world hurdle and give the horse another year to mature and gain experience or whether to take a chance this year but then possibly leave the horse with less experience when he takes on the big boys in the high class staying chases after this year? In my view this horse is a top quality animal and will almost certainly be seen in Gold Cups of the future. 10-1 ante-post favourite for the RSA interests me more than 3-1 about Simonsig, but an element of doubt of about whether he will go novice chasing and a liking for some cut in the ground which has not been present at the Cheltenham Festival in recent times would keep my money in my pocket for the time being.
A choice from left field.........
A member of Manor Farm Stables in Ditcheat, this horse started life relatively well regarded at the beginning of last year as a novice hurdler. 2nd on debut at Exeter's Haldon Gold Cup meeting beating home unknown at the time classy novice hurdlers such as Grand Vision and Lovcen, he was then put away for the deep winter before returning at Doncaster in late January where he promptly put the promising Gulllinbursti in his place with a 4 length win. High hopes were then carried into the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but a case of the coughs meant that he, like so many other Paul Nicholls runners that week, ran well below par being beaten 27 lengths. However, putting a scratch through his last run and bearing in mind how promising his others were in conjunction with his purchase by Anthony Bromley being as a chaser, Rocky Creek has the potential to be a real improver this year and has already been flagged up by Paul Nicholls at his open day that he is probably his most exciting novice this year. I would imagine he would stick to 3 miles and aim for the RSA where he can be found at a price bigger than 25-1, but if not all goes to plan and he finds himself out of his depth the slightly lower in grade 2m 4f Jewson could be a plan B at the festival.
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