Grand Crus - The Verdict

Who was to know that at Taunton, on February 23rd 2010, the Retired Greyhound Trust Somerset 'National Hunt' Novices Hurdle at 3:20 would have two horses filling the 1st and 2nd spots that would develop into potential top class animals?

1st: Sanctuaire 5/6 fav

2nd: Grand Crus 15/8 (above)

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=706575#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

The latter, a free running grey was to turn up next at Cheltenham's Open Meeting in November to cause a stir that put a grin on my face from ear to ear. It was the first race where my Dad finally allowed me to have a bet after what seemed a lifetime of trying. Our race going party (my Dad and his mates who are members of Huntingdon Racecourse but annually congregate at Cheltenham every November for the Open Meeting), had received a tip that day for a horse called Grand Crus. Running in an intermediate handicap hurdle off a weight of 10-13 on 14th November at a starting price of 5-1, this tipped up, head strong grey bolted in by 6 lengths from the ever consistent For Non Stop. The fact I got a price of 11-2 made it even more sweet. Betting record. 1 bet, 1 win, trading profit of £11, bet to win percentage of 100%. The bets to win percentage has obviously gone violently downhill since unfortunately!!!

This victory rose Grand Crus by 6 pounds in the handicap from 126 to 132. 6 days later David Pipe, ever one for a cheeky handicap snip, sensed that his horse still had the wood on the handicapper. He subsequently let Grand Crus take his chance in the valuable 3m 1f fixed brush hurdle at Haydock on the 20th November. With a weight of 10-10 Grand Crus was sent off as a hot shot at 6-4fav. Lets just say what happened next prompted the handicapper to raise him 16 pounds to 158, he surely had his hands on him now! 

Just like to point out that my betting guru that is my Dad didn't think there was any value at 6-4, he was obviously horrendously incorrect in his judgement and cost me another winning bet. I could of had two from two!

Next on the agenda was the Cleeve Hurdle, a notable World Hurdle trial, on Festival Trials day at Cheltenham in January. First time outside of handicap company this highly progressive gelding was made 2-1 favourite, I thought he would win but not in the manner he had won his previous two starts. Just over 6 minutes later, the inevitable happened. Grand Crus won doing hand-stands once again and for the first time got the label from the Racing Post comments in running as 'impressive'. The handicapper now must of been getting frustrated, so he rose him another 11 pounds to 169. 5 pounds behind the immortal Big Bucks! The World Hurdle at the Festival was logically the next port of call in March.

With all the value gone out of his price after it contracted to 7-2 with Big Bucks already odds on, the 2011 World Hurdle wasn't much of a betting heat. Tom Scudamore couldn't of ridden a better race aboard the grey stalking Big Bucks and Ruby Walsh's every move over the 3m trip. The game of cat and mouse came to a head when Big Bucks swung for home in front with Grand Crus stalking him. Scudamore went for Grand Crus and got an immediate response to almost jump the last upsides Big Bucks. Unfortunately, the machine that is Big Bucks was not for passing. As he has been for his last 17 starts. Grand Crus was a length behind in 2nd. He then went onto Aintree in April where an almost carbon copy race unfolded, another 2nd place finish behind Big Bucks.

A final run of the season was abroad in the French Champion hurdle over 3m 1f where he finished 6th behind a whole host of British and Irish raiders. The winner was Thousand Stars trained by Willie Mullins. On reflection and watching the race again, it was probably a race too many.

Ultimately, at the end of the 2010/2011 season having rose 43 pounds in the handicap (the equivalent to just over 3 stone) David Pipe couldn't complain with the hidden gem that had turned up on his doorstep that season. What beckoned for the grey next season?

The answer was novice chasing. Instantly installed as ante-post favourite for the RSA before jumping a fence in public, the gelding was suddenly no longer the under-dog. David Pipe went about some meticulous planning for his stable star for the 2011/2012 season.

Grand Crus makes a successful chasedebut over 2m 4f at Cheltenham's November Meeting

The trends for winners of the RSA are very strong. No horse has won the race without running 3 times prior to the race in the last 12 runnings. Pipe made sure his stable star ran 3 times: at The Open Meeting, Newbury in December and the Feltham on Boxing Day at Kempton before heading to Cheltenham.

The problem was that there is one more strong trend that Pipe may not have catered for. Every winner for something like the last 60 years has run in the same calendar year as the RSA. Basically, every  winner has run in the January, February or March leading up to the Festival. Grand Crus was last seen on Boxing Day in 2011, consequently not fitting this trend.

At the time of the RSA Grand Crus was a pre-festival banker in many peoples eyes. The Pipe team obviously really fancied the gelding where he was sent off a strong 11-8 favourite. What came next was surprising by all accounts. The grey didn't run with his usual zest when held up at the back of the field, where he had pulled Tom Scudamore's shoulders out of his sockets earlier in the season Scudamore almost seemed able to hold the grey. At the top of the hill Grand Crus moved stylishly onto the leaders First Lieutenant and Bobs Worths heels. He jumped between the pair at the fence mid way down the hill and looked like all he had to do was accelerate to put the race to bed. Tom Scudamore released his hands expecting the enigmatic grey to accelerate away, however he didn't. He lost ground on the leading duo in the home straight and finished a tame 4th. The disappointment was very apparent on Scudamore's face. Grand Crus had run 'flat'. The Pipes put forward this as an excuse for the geldings disappointing run, I personally think this excuse and the fact he didn't fit the trend were both contributors. By coincidence the RSA winner, Bobs Worth, fitted both of these trends.

We haven't seen Grand Crus since. I'm struggling to think of a suitable starting point for the gelding this season.

The Hennessy at Newbury in November is an option. With a chase rating of around 159 and having to stay two and a half furlongs further than he has ever travelled before, is this too great an ask? I feel that 3 miles on a flat track such as Kempton suits him better as his smooth success in the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day would indicate. However, Newbury is a relatively flat, galloping track so this may be to his advantage coincidently.

The next step would definitely be the King George where I think if he is going to win a race this winter, Boxing Day at Kempton will be his day. 3 miles on a dead flat track - happy days! Time will tell whether he heads to the Festival for the Gold Cup with a realistic chance. In my opinion I think 3m 2f will be stretching the petrol tank a tad too far, especially on a stiff track which I think doesn't suit him ideally.

Grand Crus is ultra impressive in the Feltham on Boxing Day 2011

I have already backed him ante-post at 25-1 but the more I think about it the more I put myself off the bet.

The main question I ask myself when thinking about Grand Crus is whether he is a true Gold Cup horse. I can't help but feel that he would prefer the shorter 2m 5f Ryanair Chase where he can utilise his electric turn of speed to a better advantage.

I can't see him 'out-staying' a horse to win a Gold Cup. In fact I've never seen him 'out-stay' any horse to win a race, when he's been beaten he's always been the one 'out-stayed'. Is he more of a Ryanair horse? But will his owners be willing to drop him down in grade from the pinnacle that is the Gold Cup?

However, I can picture him stalking horses down the hill in the Ryanair and then using that turn of foot to put that race to bed as the field approach the second last in the straight on Cheltenham's new course over a shortened 2m 5f trip.

The verdict, watch this space for the time being.