2:20 - Middle Park
Selection - Reckless Abandon (pictured above)
I have backed him at 2-1 and the weight of my money has already contracted the price to15-8! G Mosse comes over from France to retain the ride and gets on well with the horse. I know the Marco Botti camp are sweet on the chance of Moojaahim and feel there is improvement to come from the Prix Morny. Although he didn't get the run of the race in the Prix Morny, whereas Reckless Abandon did, I still think Clive Cox's colt would of had his measure and I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow. If Reckless Abandon was a Godolphin or Ballydoyle horse he would surely be shorter than 15-8 and I think on merit he deserves to be a shorter price than he is.
2:55 - Dewhurst
Selection - Dawn Approach
The best 2 year colt this term, he looks to cement himself as the top European 2 year colt tomorrow. His sire New Approach produces sperm in the shape of the £ sign and it appears his offspring are carrying the chromosomes which have won the derby in 2008. He will be very difficult to beat tomorrow, I have no worries about him handling the ground tomorrow as his sire won on soft.
3:35 - Cesarewitch
Selection - Countrywide Flame (pictured above)
Fits most of the trends. An example of a few are: Drawn in stall 7, 7/10 winners drawn in stall 12 or below. Carries 8-5, 7/10 carried below 9-1. Won over 2 miles, 10/10 won over at least 1m 6f. 2006 Triumph Hurdle winner Detroit City followed that up with a win in the Cesarewitch for a famous double, this horse looks to replicate that feat this year. He will handle the ground and he is a certainty to stay. Carrying 8-5 is an absolute steal and he is pricewises ante-post tip, I expect a bold show.
Chepstow:
1:55 - Juvenile Hurdle
Selection - Handazan
Those of you who read my blog yesterday will know how highly Alan King rates this horse. He is unraced over hurdles, but the ground is a concern. He would prefer it with less juice but he has won on heavy on the flat. He is probably a 'sit and watch' horse tomorrow, but he should be race fit having been on the go through the summer for John Oxx. Please revert to http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/juvenile-to-follow-handazan.html for further details.
3:00 - 2 mile 3 furlong Novice Chase
Selection - Fingal Bay (pictured above)
One of my horses to follow for the coming season. I think he will rank very highly in the pecking order of staying novice chasers this term and this looks like a nice starting point. I expect him to be too good for his rivals tomorrow. The ground will be perfect and although the trip may be a bit on the short side, it will take some getting around Chepstow tomorrow and a stamina test should be right up this fella's street. I don't understand why he's not odds on? If England were value at 1/100 against San Marino tonight, then this horse is definitely value at even money.
3:40 - 2 mile Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Hinterland (pictured above)
Prep run before a novice chase campaign later on in the season. Paul Nicholls must think he is still on a winnable mark off 141 and the trainer has a brilliant record in the race. He obviously targets this race as an early season money spinner. Classy animals such as Domtaline, Escort'men and Gwanako have all won this race for team Ditcheat. Although he has to give almost a stone to the rest of the field, he still should be too classy for the others. I think the main danger will be the Donald McCain horse, but at a massive price I think the Twiston-Davies horse Red Riverman could have an each way chance. He receives 24 pounds from Hinterland. Sneaking in the bottom end off 10-4 he could still be unexposed and his trainer is red hot at the moment!
4:10 - 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle
Selection - Ulis De Vassey
Winner on heavy at Bangor. Very unexposed 4 year old who receives weight all around running off 10-4. Sneaking in at the bottom end off a mark of 112, I'm willing to take a punt on this Nick Williams runner. Last 5 winners all carried below 11-2 and were all aged 4 or 5. Can't say much more because I don't know much about the horse to be honest! lol. I think the main danger may come from Carrigmorna King. He brings the best from into the race when he was second to Ambion Wood in the European Breeders Fund Final at Sandown.
4:45 - 3 mile Handicap Chase
Selection - Golden Chieftain
Winner on soft and will appreciate the stamina test. Was rated 140 over hurdles and could still be well in over fences off a mark of 129. Last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less and were aged 6-8. Golden Chieftain carries 10-13 and is aged 7, he doesn't quite fit the trend but isn't far away and is still relatively unexposed. As for the others, Le Beau Bai has a superb Chepstow record and will love the ground, but the trip may be on the sharp side and I doubt he will be fully tuned up for this race on his reappearance. I fear Rangitoto the most as he is the other unexposed horse in the race and Paul Nicholls is bang in form. The Twiston-Davies yard are also in good form and saddle Cootehill , but I think he's in the hands of the handicapper off a mark of 137 and the unexposed horses should have his measure.
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