Friday 12 October 2012

A Cheltenham Festival 5 Timer? Or A Burst Bubble?

'The Greatest Show On Turf'' could be a unique renewal in 2013. Golden Miller is the solitary member of the 5 times winner club at the famous meeting, but in 2013 two horses will descend on Prestbury Park looking to be inducted into the immortal club. Barring any accidents, Big Bucks and Quevega will hopefully return in search for their 5th victories in the World Hurdle and Mares Hurdle respectively. The question that will be posed time and time again between now and March is: Are their 5th victories really a formality ? The answer, put simply, is maybe.

Big Bucks:





Isn't really a lot that I can say about Big Bucks that hasn't been said before. Undisputabely the best 3 mile hurdler there has ever been, Big Bucks will be looking to extend his 17 run unbeaten streak this season. His route to the Festival has always begun at Newbury on Hennessy day and you would imagine you would see the gelding turn up there again this year for his seasonal reappearance. The Longwalk Hurdle at Ascot has normally been his next stepping stone on route to the Festival. In 2011, he went from the Longwalk at Ascot in December straight to the Festival as a fresh horse. However, last year, his owners the Stewart Family, decided to take their chance in the Cleeve Hurdle between Ascot and the Festival and whether they do this again this year will be interesting. With all his wins achieved in such a nonchalant manner, we don't really know whether the run in the Cleeve Hurdle had been to Big Bucks assistance in sharpening him up or whether he runs better as a fresh horse. To be honest, I really don't think it matters too much! He's far too good for his rivals however he feels within himself! His 4 victories in the World and Liverpool Hurdles have been superb. Paul Nicholls has said that he always seems better in himself at Aintree and his performance on the track would reflect that. Year on year he simply p***es all over them at Liverpool. Does the flat track suit him better than the stiffer test he faces at Cheltenham. Once again, I don't think it really matters. He is as close to a machine you'll get in horse racing. Actually that's a lie. Frankel is a machine! Are there any competitors that may have his measure this year? Peddlers Cross will be an interesting recruit to the 3 mile hurdle ranks having had a disappointing novice chase campaign last year. He is a Champion Hurdle runner-up and could make Big Bucks sweat when at his best, but he has never been tested beyond 2 mile 5 furlongs. He will need to out-stay Big Bucks to beat him, but what is Big Bucks' greatest quality? He stays. Maybe he could pose more of a threat on more of a speed track such as Aintree, but Aintree is where Big Bucks has been seen in his best light over the years so I doubt that's an option either. Otherwise, I don't think there is anything else that can sniff him. As I speak I'm watching his World Hurdle win from last year and I'm already picturing him doing the same again this year. At the end of this campaign expect his unbeaten run to stand at 21, maybe 22 if he runs in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Quevega:





As Quevega walked back into the winners enclosure after her first victory in the Mares Hurdle at the 2009 Festival her owners and Willie Mullins were buzzing with excitement, fantasising over a potential Champion Hurdle tilt in 2010. To their bemusement Ruby Walsh, sitting aboard the mare, said: 'why not this race next year?' It's a good job he did say that. Otherwise I wouldn't be writing this blog looking forward to the mares attempt at a 5th Mares Hurdle win in 2013! Having beaten off Voler La Vedette and Sparky May the quality in the mares division this year are looking thin on the ground once again. I think the only horse that can beat Quevega, is Quevega. Willie Mullins was public in saying a couple of years ago that she's a bit of a temperamental so and so and doesn't like having to do too much work in the course of a season. She's obviously not the easiest horse to train. This is reflected by the mare only appearing twice in a season, once at Cheltenham and then at the Punchestown Festival. I think she spends the other 10 months of the year in a field having it all her own way. Willie Mullins obviously knows her better than anyone else and he know's all the tricks to keep her happy. In my opinion Quevega strikes me as one of those horses who will turn around one day and say: 'I really cba any more.' A bit like the Milton Harris trained Chaninbar did two years ago. I have a niggling doubt that the moment isn't far away and I would have thought she has a relatively large stud value tag around her neck too. She can't have too many more seasons in her and it wouldn't surprise me whether this next season is her last. Even money ante-post for the Mares Hurdle doesn't represent any value to me and I would be very wary if you are thinking about backing her. Although she will no doubt be in my treble on  Champion Hurdle day next year if she turns up, I just don't trust her.

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