World Hurdle 2013

World Hurdle 2013

Oscar Whisky heads the market at around 7/2. Two Aintree hurdle victories in consecutive years has proven he's the best hurdler over 2 1/2 miles around but does that mean he's the best 3 mile hurdler around? No, in my opinion. The Cleeve Hurdle proved to me he stays 3 miles, but not he stays 3 miles dourly. It stretches his stamina to the limit, which is a huge negative, this race is a thorough test of stamina with horses probably having to stay 3 1/2 miles to come out on top. Previous winners of the race: Big Bucks, Iris Gift, Baracouda and Inglis Drever were all dour stayers, rather than speed horses stepping up from 2 1/2 like Oscar Whisky. Nicky Henderson was convinced he wasn't right last year as he wasn't winning after 2 1/2 miles, I disagree with him, I feel he just got out-stayed up the hill having travelled well through the race. If he stayed thoroughly he would have got closer than he did last year, also he would have beaten Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's his class that has got him so close. He is a lay at 7/2.

REVE DE SIVOLA is my idea of this years winner. I have to admit after he won the Longwalk Hurdle in dismissive fashion I was still sceptical about his attitude. His chasing campaign left a lot to be desired, but to his credit the way he out-stayed Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve proved he is a real grinder and still has fire in the belly. Staying is his game, I see no reason why the form with Oscar Whisky in the Cleeve will be reversed on better ground. Although he has been impressive on soft ground this winter, I am confident he will act just as well on good ground. His record at the Festival is solid (2nd in 2010 Neptune on good to soft and 3rd in what is now the JLT handicap chase in 201, also on good to soft). Festival form is a huge plus and I can see him winning in the same fashion he has been this season. The water table is relatively high so any rain will soften the ground up to a greater extent than it has in previous years, even if it occurs we know it won't be an issue for Nick Williams charge. Richard Johnson should retain the ride having got on well with him this year and I see him as good value at 5/1 in places.

Monksland has been progressive this year, he reversed placings with Zaidpour when taking the 3 mile Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, after the latter had his measure in the Hattons Grace the previous month. Now a three time grade 2 winner, the step up to 3 miles at Leopardstown brought out some improvement and he displayed battling qualities that should see him go well here. He is a smooth traveller, slick hurdler, versatile in terms of ground and proved he handles the track when a slightly unlucky 3rd in last years Neptune Hurdle (hampered two out), all things considered he has all the makings of a big player. My worry is he is only a 6 year old and is very lightly raced, having had only 7 starts under rules I'm not sure he will be mentally or physically mature enough to compete in a contest which is historically a war of attrition. I also feel because he is lightly raced and is unexposed he is under-priced at 5/1, that's too short for a horse making only his second start over 3 miles in my eyes.

Peddlers Cross is still on the comeback trail from a disappointing chasing campaign last year. Defeat to Sam Winner in a jumpers bumper is easily excused after a ten month lay-off, however a two length beating of a horse rated 35lb inferior at Musselburgh has to go down as very disappointing. It's not an ideal preparation, although he could have been a bit rusty. If the horse of two years ago reappears he would have a chance (although the quality of his Champion Hurdle second is debatable), but that's the problem, he hasn't reproduced the form from that Champion Hurdle since. Personally, I don't think he enjoys his racing like he used to, the spark seems to have disappeared and I don't think anyone can put a finger as to why. At 10/1 he represents no value for a horse who has been out of form and carries too many question marks. Each-way claims at best.

2009 Aintree hurdle winner Solwhit is making the step up to 3 miles for the first time in his career after showing promise over 2 1/2 miles this season. He is a classy type who once went off 6/1 for a Champion Hurdle, I think he also has the stamina for 3 miles and the two in conjunction are big positives. A lack of Cheltenham form is a huge worry (only 6th in aforementioned Champion Hurdle), also this is going to be a gruelling contest where stamina will be tested to it's absolute limit, so I would have no interest in backing a horse who has never ran over 3 miles, the World Hurdle isn't won by 2 1/2 milers stepping up to 3 as a rule, the value in his price has gone.

Bog Warrior is probably the most appropriately named horse in training. All his best form has come with cut in the ground, if there was rain in the area you would fancy him at have leading claims to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles. If he reproduces the form that saw him easily dispose of Zaidpour in the Galmoy Hurdle he would have a squeak. However, two things concern me. Firstly he has never been to Cheltenham before which although it can't be assumed he won't act at the track, you would prefer some course form to be in the book. Secondly, he has done all his winning in small fields. To his credit he has won 3 times in fields sizes of 18 or bigger, but they were lower grade races, the races he has dominated at a high grade have been with field sizes of 9 or below. I would imagine this years World Hurdle will be a competitive renewal without the presence of Big Bucks, therefore I expect more will go to post than the 11 who went last year. I also feel if he wasn't a Giggenstown horse he would be a bigger than 10/1, all in all there is enough to persuade me to look elsewhere.

Cheltenham Festival specialist Get Me Out Of Here looks to go one better than the three seconds at the previous three festivals. Better ground will be key and you can't fault his Cheltenham record, but like Solwhit, he has never run over three miles, for the same reason it makes him easily opposable. He has about 10lb to find on official ratings (over 2 1/2 miles), has no form in grade 1's outside of novice company and overall has enough on his plate. Each-way claims at best but 12/1 isn't any value. You would be betting with your heart and not my head.

The form of SMAD PLACE has been a concern this year, for whatever reason he hasn't performed to the level of last year that saw that saw him put up a career best to finish 3rd in last years World Hurdle. The grey was easily swept aside at Wetherby on his reappearance by Tidal Bay, having travelled and jumped well he found nothing off the bridle, which was as much of a mystery to his trainer Alan King as anyone. In hindsight, although Reve De Sivola absolutely thumped him in the Longwalk, it wasn't the worst effort on ground which was far too soft for his liking, Reve De Sivola has since elevated himself to the head of this market. He was a staying on 3rd last year, that stamina should see him well in a race littered with suspect stayers and it would be fair to say if he reproduces the form of last years third, when he ran to 161, he wouldn't be far away and 16/1 he is the best each-way value in the race.

Others of note. Wonderful Charm is highly thought of at home by Paul Nicholls but is coming back off a 138 lay-off, he has had a wind operation which is a positive, but no five year old has ever won the World Hurdle and he is more likely to go for the Coral Cup, where he is ante-post favourite. Fiveforthree is coming back off a 728 day lay-off and will have to retain all of his old ability to be competitive here, that can't guaranteed after injury and 33/1 is too short all things considered. Zaidpour has been slightly disappointing this year having been turned over 3 times at prices smaller than 2/1, he has a bit to prove and has to have cut in the ground. Stable mate So Young was his conqueror at Gowran Park last time out and is another who wants dig in the ground. It's disappointing he hasn't progressed since finishing third in the 2011 Neptune Hurdle. Trustan Times did well to take the valuable fixed brush hurdle a Haydock in November, but looked outclassed in the Longwalk on his only start in this grade and has about 17lb to find on official ratings. Celestial Halo is the not the force of old and has struggled in recent times, he is an admirable horse but I doubt he's good enough.

Overall, the omission of Big Bucks has attracted many horses that probably wouldn't being trying their luck if the four time champion was present. Many of these are stepping up from 2 1/2 miles and are attempting three miles for the first time, this will be an dour test of stamina (as all staying races are at the festival) and you must see out the trip well to be competitive. 9/10 previous winners had winning form in graded three mile hurdles, therefore any horse with no form over three miles is easily opposed in terms of winning the race: Peddlers Cross, Solwhit, Get Me Out Of Here and Wonderful Charm fit that mould. However there may be some each-way value in those come post time as they're all a bit short at the time of writing. Monksland has the potential to be a rapid improver and is the real unknown quantity in the race, I worry if he's ready for this on only his 8th start under rules, he hasn't done enough to justify joint second favouritism in my opinion. Bog Warrior, Zaidpour and So Young would need considerable cut in the ground which can't be guaranteed. I believe the market has got this about right, the top two in the betting bring the best form into the race and are the highest rated in the field. Over 2 1/2 miles I would be all over Oscar Whisky, but it's over 3 miles which I believe stretches him to the limit. I would personally have him and REVE DE SIVOLA the other way round in the market due to the latter being rock solid, he stays well and has excellent festival form, having looked at the race in depth I think he is good value at 5/1. In relation to each-way value, SMAD PLACE would have to bounce back to form to make the frame, but it isn't out of the question and his effort in the Longwalk probably wasn't as bad as it appeared at the time. He stays well and has been there and done it before, better ground would also be beneficial, 16/1 is decent each-way value.

Advice - Reve De Sivola 2pt Win @5/1 Paddy Power/Ladbrokes
Smad Place 0.75pt E/W @ 16/1 Various