Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day 2

Day 1 was a slightly disappointing on the whole for the blog. Although banker of the week Simonsig got the job done in the Arkle, Grandouet, Knockara Beau and Carlito Brigante fell (latter effectively brought down) before they could land a blow, which was disappointing. My Tent Or Yours didn't find a lot off the bridle which was always a possibility, it's a shame as if he had won it would have made my festival. I'm afraid I don't have a lot of time tonight so won't be able to provide as much in depth analysis as I would like, but I will do as much as I can.

National Hunt Chase

Tofino Bay looks competitively priced

Stamina will be the name of the game here, it is something market leader Back In Focus has in abundance, Willlie Mullins' grade 1 winner will like the cut in the ground and the stiff track should be ideal. Patrick Mullins is booked to ride which is a plus but a lack of course form is a worry. TOFINO BAY is a grade 2 winner who has solid form in Ireland, he wouldn't want the ground too quick but will stay all day and Nina Carberry is an attractive jockey booking, on official ratings he only has 1lb to find with Back In Focus but is three times the price. Buddy Bolero is chaser on a steep upward curve, Jamie Codd is a top jockey booking and I expect him to feature in the shake up. Emperors Choice and Rival D'estruval are also improving chasers and are expected to appreciate a thorough stamina test, both jump well and have strong claims, one with course form is Highland Lodge but he has been disappointing since taking a poor novice chase in December and was dismounted at Exeter last time out. Rose Of The Moon comes back off a break and should be freshened up for this contest, the ground should suit but he's a bit short on what he has achieved, the same can be said for Hawkes Point, who will want every yard of this trip. Our Island was 8th last year, beaten 25 lengths, there's no reason to think he could any closer this year. GODSMEJUDGE has been advised ante-post at 7/1 to be placed, he jumps and relentlessly gallops. Those attributes are shared by many but he has proven he can do it in competitive handicap company at Warwick and his form is solid.

Advice - Previously Advised - Godsmejudge @7/1 to be placed
Tofino Bay - 1.5pt E/W @9/1 Paddy Power

Neptune Novices Hurdle

Pont Alexandre - Sets the standard

I believe this is between the three market leaders. Pont Alexandre is the Irish banker of the week, 6/4 reflects the level of confidence behind Willie Mullins' charge. The ground being slow will help as I would worry he may get swept off his feet on quicker ground, he will be prominent and Ruby Walsh has already said he will make as much use of him as possible. On the whole he has a lot in his favour and I expect him to provide the benchmark his rivals have to aim at, he sets the standard. If the stable believe he is that much better than yesterdays Supreme winner Champagne Fever, then 6/4 may be a reasonable price, although it's a little short for me. The New One is the best of the British challenge to these eyes, he has been impressive so far this year, being beaten only once when collared on the line here on trials day. Sam Twiston Davies went a touch early that day, using the geldings burst of speed too early, leaving him vulnerable close home. To accelerate like that in really poor ground was impressive, he has proven he acts at the track. The main worry is the bug going around the Twiston Davies yard, however this horse is reported to be fine and the stable went ok yesterday with Ackertac and Tour Des Champs. Taquin De Seuil won the Challow Hurdle well at Christmas in deep ground, before that he had stretched yesterdays Supreme runner-up My Tent Or Yours at Ascot over 2 miles, that was probably a bit sharp for him. He should go well but I don't rate him at the level of the two horses mentioned above. Chatterbox and Two Rockers are two completely unexposed types who come here with an unbeaten record, they aren't as highly tried as the market leaders and will need to step up to compete here. Rule The World beat yesterdays Supreme winner Champagne Fever easily at Naas earlier in the year (although the Champagne Fever was found to be wrong afterwards), that performance would see him go well here but he has a bit to find and 6/1 isn't any value.

Advice - No bet

RSA Chase

Boston Bob will appreciate
the stamina test

Dynaste swerving this for the Jewson has given the market a very different feel. Unioniste is fancied to improve for his first try at 3 miles at Newbury last time out where the slow pace didn't suit, a faster pace here where he can settle and use his deadly jumping to his advantage is expected to bring out vast improvement. He is the choice of Ruby Walsh who rarely gets 50/50 decisions wrong, leaving fellow market leader Boston Bob to be partnered by Paul Townend. My main reason to oppose him is only one 5 year old has won this race (Star De Mohaison), although there are similarities between him and Star De Mohaison I doubt whether he is a thorough stayer at such a young age. This race is a gruelling test, stamina is key so therefore the aforementioned BOSTON BOB takes preference. Although he has been far from impressive this year, he has been running over trips short of his optimum and been doing all his best work at the end of the race, an end to end gallop over 3 miles should be right up his street. The P J Moriarty he won by a whisker at Leopardstown has traditionally been the best trial for this contest in recent years, 3 of the last 4 winners had contested the grade 1 at Leopardstown, also the last 3 winners had all contested the previous years Albert Bartlett. His jumping is safe and steady rather than spectacular and I hope he will go one better this year following his 2nd to Brindisi Breeze last year. Hadrians Approach needs to dust up on his jumping to compete here, he was benefited by the slow pace when 2nd to Unioniste at Newbury and was consequently flattered to get as close as he did. He is not a thorough stayer to these eyes which is a no go area in the race. Goulanes has only had one chase start, although he stays well, I fear he will lack the necessary experience here, traditionally horses should have run at least 2 times, although the more experience the better. Houblon Des Obeaux and LYREEN LEGEND are both thorough stayers who have each-way claims, they both have jumped well so far in their careers and have plenty of experience, the latter ran well behind Boston Bob at Leopardstown which represents some of the best form in the race.

Advice - Boston Bob 2pt Win @7/2 Various
Lyreen Legend 1pt E/W @12/1 Betvictor

Queen Mother
Much like Quevega yesterday, it's pointless taking on Sprinter Sacre here because he will win.

Coral Cup
This is probably as tricky as it gets at the Festival. In terms of trends second season hurdlers have a good record in the race, in particular horses who haven't done anything to raise their marks significantly in that season. CASH & GO takes preference for Nicky Henderson, he was narrowly denied by Olofi in the Greatwood over 2 miles here in November and ran creditably in last months Betfair Hurdle. Nicky Henderson feels a step up to 2 1/2 miles is likely to suit and will extract some improvement, the stable did the same thing with Spirit River 3 years ago. Master Of The Sea can't keep winning, especially in what is one of the most competitive handicaps of the year. Abbey Lane should appreciate the step up in trip and is fancied to double up after his Boylesports Hurdle win, if he wasn't a Mullins horse he would be a bigger price though. UN BEAU MATIN is a progressive second season hurdler who has steadily been getting his act together. 3rd to On His Own in a grade 2 last time out, beaten 4 lengths represents decent form and I fancy him to be a little way ahead of his mark of 142. 16/1 is each-way value. I fear Pendra will lack the necessary experience, at bigger prices Tour D'Argent was running well in grade 2 chase at Kempton and could make the shake up now reverted back to hurdles. ORSIPPUS was 3rd in this 2 years ago off a 2lb higher mark, festival form is a strong positive and is each-way value at 50/1.

Advice - Cash & Go 1.5pt E/W @14/1 various
Un Beau Matin 1pt E/W @16/1 various
Orsippus 0.5pt E/W @50/1 Coral

Fred Winter
This is another real brain scrambler. I won't go into it in too much depth but I like MILORD each-way. Previously a smart flat performer (good enough to compete in German Derby), he has reverted to hurdles in good style, running well behind some very smart performers, notably Triumph Hurdle fancy Rolling Star. I also like ZAMDY MAN for a place but Saphir De Rheu has the most obvious win claims. He fits the trend having not won until his 3rd start and was very impressive at Taunton, although he hasn't gone unnoticed by the market.

Advice - Milord 1.5pt E/W @20/1 various
Zamdy Man 0.75pt E/W @25/1 various

Champion Bumper
This is a total guess up of a race with so many coming in here unbeaten and with lift reputations  I was very keen on Empiracle before he was ruled out with injury, if I had to pick one I would side with REGAL ENCORE. He is out of top sire Kings Theatre, whose off spring tend to want further in time, but they do need to stay to win this. On his sole run this term at Chepstow he destroyed a decent field and has been saved for this. Although that argument can be used for many of these, he represents strong connections and should have the perfect mix of speed and stamina for this contest, hopefully he doesn't get too revved up in the preliminaries.

Advice - 1pt Win Regal Encore @9/1 various

Cheers,

Josh