Selections - Saturday 22nd December

Rain has meant we will see more of the testing ground we have seen in recent weeks, both Ascot and Haydock are heavy whilst Newcastle has been forced to abandon their card. I am struggling to find any real value so it's not much of a betting day for me.

Raya Star takes the Ladbroke Hurdle last year under a brilliantly timed Wayne Hutchinson ride

Ascot

12:55 - Foundation Developments Novices Handicap Hurdle

This race will ultimately take some getting for these novice hurdlers, young horses having to slog 3 miles around Ascot on testing ground will sort them out. De La Bech will be a popular choice after his impressive 20 length victory at Lingfield last month, he appeared to revel in the heavy ground and looks to be a horse who can defy his mark off 118. The stable hasn't been in great form but had a winner here yesterday. Another horse on the upgrade is Okafranca, Jim Old's gelding has made a solid return after injury and has been raised 8lb for his latest win at Taunton which looks fair. 110 looks workable, he is also a 7 going 8 year old so has the benefit of physical and mental maturity over some of his rivals here, that is a huge plus in the testing ground. Cheat The Cheater looks to be getting better as he matures and will probably make the shake up as Kaylif Aramis and Koultas King have been running consistently but finding one or two too good, I think that will be the story again here. Wings Of Icarus was heavily supported for a handicap hurdle at Sandown last month, David Pipe has stepped him up to 3 miles which should assist as he appeared to get outpaced. He has strong claims. Call Me Sir has rose 34lb in the handicap from 69 to 103 since the summer, he is on a career high mark here and may get found out. Cornish Ice made a pleasing comeback after injury but probably will probably find the heavy ground hard work on his second start back, fitness may be an issue. A tentative selection goes to Highland Retreat, he is a winning Irish pointer and looks to be a bit of a slow plodder, but that is what this race will require and I fancy him to stay. The form of his last run isn't too bad either, Midnight Appeal has gone and ran well at Cheltenham being Coneygree and Return Spring is no mug. Jack Barber is a decent conditional, his 7lb claim is very valuable here. He looks over priced at 14/1 and has strong each-way claims.

Advice - Highland Retreat 1pt EW @14/1 Bet365

2:00 - Long Walk Hurdle

Master Of The Hall - Needs a trip and on the basis
 of his best chase form, could be overpriced

Obviously the defection of Big Bucks to injury has made this race much more of a betting heat than it originally was. Smad Place was very disappointing at Wetherby on his comeback run, having travelled strongly he found nothing and weakened into a tame 3rd. Alan King has stated he wasn't happy with the grey when he got back to the yard so something may of been a miss. His form figures at Ascot read 1,2 so he goes at the track and must be better for his Wetherby effort, it must be remembered that Tidal Bay has gone to be runner-up in the Hennessy and Crack Away Jack didn't disgrace himself behind Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham last week. He is only a 5 year old so there is still improvement to come and if he reproduces the form that saw him finish 3rd in the World Hurdle last year, he will be hard to beat here. On that form 2/1 contains a bit of value to me, particularly as most of his rivals are not regulars in this sphere and have something to prove. Trustan Times is definitely a horse on the upgrade after his win in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, on that form he has merited a step up in class. We will find out where he stands here, he will go in ground and he will stay. I would say he looks a solid bet and he has every chance, 11/4 on what he has achieved is a tad short though in my opinion. Prospect Wells takes a big step-up in trip which I don't like on the heavy ground. Undoubtedly one of the classiest horses in the race, that may be blunted as I can see this becoming a bit of a slog, there looks to be pace in the race with a couple of confirmed front runners and whether he will stay 3 miles is a doubt in my mind. Those front runners are Kayf Aramis and Cucumber Run who both look to be slightly out of their depth here, they are likely to set the race up for the more classy horses. I understand Reve De Sivola has a decent chance based upon his 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury but I can't be having him at 9/2. Master Of The Hall only goes in small fields and is difficult to place, he is reverted back to hurdles here and on the pick of his chase form is has a chance. Tony McCoy has got on well with him in the past and the fact Geraghty has sided with stablemate Cucumber Run is of interest. 8/1 represents a bit of value to me.

Advice - Smad Place - 1pt Win @9/4 Stan James

Master Of The Hall - 1pt Win @8/1 William Hill

3:10 - Ladbroke Hurdle

Cause Of Causes looks overpriced at 16/1
 based upon his solid form

Wow this is a competitive renewal! 6 reappear from The Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, including 5 of the first 6 home, consequently the race will provide a significant form line for this. It would be appropriate to start with the winner Olofi, the 136 mark that defied him on numerous occasions last year was overcome to record a 2 length victory - he was cut up turning for home and possibly could have won by further. He has been raised 8lb to 144 which looks workable, he has obviously improved for the summer and defying this mark here is feasible. I worry slightly he's going right handed, only gone right handed once in career and there is a possibility those behind last month have got a pull at the weights here. At 14/1 earlier in the week he represented some value, but at 9's that value is all but gone. Cash And Go was runner-up to Olofi and has been raised 4lb for that effort, 145 looks a very workable mark based on what we saw last time out and he has strong claims to go one better here. Barry Geraghty has chosen him out of Nicky Henderson's 4 entries. Balder Succes is currently favourite at 6/1 generally and bids to take the honours for the King yard once again, his best form is on soft so ground conditions should be ideal. It is likely he has plenty of improvement in him as he is only 4, he has abundances of class and does a lot of work on the bridle. Whether he has more much improvement beyond his 147 mark is yet to be seen but he has obvious claims and won't be far away in my opinion, he is a little short based upon what he has achieved but the untapped potential is there to be seen. It's A Gimme ran a cracker to be second to Raya Star here last month, readers will know I'm not a huge fan and the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good to soft is a worry, he may well act on it but I wouldn't be prepared to take the chance. Coming back from an injury is always a concern and at 9/1 Ranjaan represents little value. He is obviously talented and is French bred so should go on the ground, but this is a big ask on his comeback run. Cause Of Causes looks overpriced to me at 16/1, he was just over a length behind Cash And Go at Cheltenham and is 9pts bigger in price. I know he stayed on into 3rd and never looked like winning, but he has only gone up 3lb which looks fair to me and I think he has more strong each-way claims here. His defeat by a head in the Galway Hurdle was also a cracker. Rattan was 6th at Cheltenham but was never really in the race, he was staying on late but retains his mark of 142 which looks high enough. Double Ross was an impressive winner of the Intermediate Hurdle at the Open Meeting before running creditably at Haydock when carrying a penalty in a competitive hurdle, he hit the wall that day after the last which is a worry. This is more competitive and his handicap mark now stands at 142, that's 5lb higher than Haydock and although he will go in the ground, he may have found his level. Into Wain gets in off a feather weight after being unlucky to go down to an inspired Petit Robin at Sandown, I thought he as all over the winner that day and he must have a chance again here. Bothy ran another cracker at Cheltenham to finish 4th, he has been raised even further to 142 which looks plenty high enough, however Patrick Corbett has proved his worth and his 7lb claim is very valuable. Effectively running off a mark of 135 is a pound below the mark he finished 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle off. At 28/1 I think he's massively over priced and is likely to be placed once again. A worry is he has very rarely gone right handed. Petit Robin and Dan Breen both look very exposed now as Bar De Ligne, Thomas Edison and First Avenue don't have an adequate level of form that would justify a chance. Princeton Plains has a 7lb higher mark in England than Ireland, therefore he looks held here and Urbain De Sivola's form is hard to make sense of as it's all in France. He goes there to get the testing ground which he will find tomorrow, the only way I can judge him is his effort in the Triumph last year where he was 12th, although he is only 4 and could be unexposed. Rigidity (dark horse to follow) has been novice chasing but has been a tad disappointing, he reverts back to hurdles here and is off the same mark he was second last year. Returning to the scene of his best effort to date could rekindle the fire, but as one of his supporters I feel this isn't his day. Lyvius was a batting winner of the Gerry Fielden last month and looks to be on the upgrade. Rock On Ruby won that race at Newbury before going onto Champion Hurdle glory, I'm not saying this horse has that quality but he looks unexposed and fits the mould of the type of horse that wins this race. Barry Geraghty said there wasn't a lot between him and Cash And Go when it came to his decision. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional and his 5lb claim only boosts his claims, he has form on testing ground in Germany so that shouldn't be a problem either. I have backed him at 11/1 earlier in the week but wouldn't be having him at 9's which he is currently.

Advice - Lyvius - Win @11/1 (Ante-Post)
Cause Of Causes - 1pt EW @16/1 Majority
Bothy - 0.5pt EW @28/1 Bet Fred

Other horses of interest:
Desert Cry
Ulck Du Lin
Notarfbad (Eyecatcher)

Cheers,

Josh

@JoshRWDown