Fridays action was a good one for me financially, but in terms of the blogs selections, things could have gone better. Hildisvini sadly lost his life after his fall at the 2nd last, he wouldn't have won but wasn't disgracing himself in defeat. It's a real shame as he was a horse on an upward curve going places, how far he would of gone we will never know. Falcarragh appeared to get stuck in the mud and Midnight Chase was a non-runner. The ground has deteriorated dramatically today and the heavy going makes tomorrow much more difficult, in particular as there is a few short priced favourites who look vulnerable.
Cheltenham
12:45 - Ryman Stationary Novices Chase
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| Court In Motion will love the ground and doesn't appear to have lost any ability after injury, but won't want to be too much shorter than 5/2 (if he turns up) |
Our Father is sure to be a popular choice after his effortless win here last month, his jumping was accurate and precise, possibly a bit big, but he cruised though the soft ground to win by a comfortable 20 lengths. On that basis he has strong claims here. It's unlikely he will get stuck in the mud, he has a lot of scope and proved he handles the cut in the ground he will face tomorrow last time out. A worry is he has been seen best fresh in the past, on his 3 seasonal reappearances he has won all 3, but has failed to follow these up and has been a little disappointing thereafter. Also regular pilot Timmy Murphy is out injured, although Tom Scudamore is a more than able deputy, the winning partnership has been broken. Overall, there is enough to put me off, especially at 4/5, that's plenty short enough. If Lingfield (First Preference) is off,
Court In Motion takes the vote as a strong travelling horse who goes in the heavy. His victory as a novice hurdler in testing conditions at Warwick was very impressive, finishing 2nd to Back In Focus, who is making a mockery of staying novice chases on testing ground in Ireland for Willie Mullins, on his next start as a novice hurdler was far from poor, what was most taking was the smooth headway and strong travelling qualities he showed on both appearances. He progressed to run third in the Albert Bartlett so course form is in the book before injury struck and he had a lay off. His two comeback starts over fences have been promising behind Houblon Des Obeaux and Dynaste and he receives weight from all his rivals here, he wouldn't want to get any shorter than 5/2 though. Emma Lavelle also saddles
Highland Lodge, he flopped in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Warwick behind Cotton Mill last season but has made a smooth transition to fences this term. Harry Topper sprouted wings to over take him at Newbury last time out, however he did look held in second beforehand and his official rating of 139 leaves him with something to find with the former two.
What A Warrior hasn't been disgraced in two novice chase defeats here this term, his jumping must improve but if he gets his act together he could run into 2nd at a big price.
Best Served Cold has soft ground form in the book in Ireland, but doesn't appeal here as
Simply Ben has a lot to find on official ratings.
Advice - (Depending on whether Court In Motion is a non-runner)
CIM Runs - 3pt win @11/4 Bet365
CIM Non-Runner - 2pt Straight Forecast - Our Father to beat What A Warrior
1:20 - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase
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| Pepite Rose will prefer betting going but is a model of consistency and may run into a place |
Shooters Wood looks to build upon his win in the November running of this race here last month, he has been raised 8lb for that win to 132 which could be workable and gets in here off 10 stone. Ruby Walsh is doing his minimum weight and having him aboard is a huge plus as the winning partnership is retained, but he is one I'm going to side against here. His has never raced on anything worse than soft, considering he has been on the go throughout the summer, he would probably prefer better ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Also he showed plenty of speed last time out but that weapon may be blunted tomorrow on softer ground and on the new course, which tests stamina further than the old, may further mitigate his high speed.
Oiseau Du Nuit is a very admirable horse and owes me nothing, but his current mark of 158 is career high and conceding a stone all round is going to be hard in this ground, easily opposed.
Pepite Rose was a massive improver last year, her two starts this year have been a little disappointing, particularly last time out on heavy ground at Ascot. I think she will be better seen on better ground and tomorrow probably isn't her day, but she is likely to run into a place. Her mark of 144 is high enough, but she is only a 5 year old and hopefully still has improvement in her.
Oh Crick ran a cracker behind Ulck Du Lin at Newbury after running creditably here in November, although Joshua Newman takes off a valuable 7lb, he still looks in the hands of the handicapper.
Imperial Shabra has a 6lb higher rating in the UK than he does in Ireland and has a lot on his plate here, whilst
West With The Wind has been hopelessly out of form recently. That leaves David Pipe's two runners.
His Excellency won here in October and his still a novice, he was well behind in the Tingle Creek last week and looks held off 147. Potentially the stables first string is a newcomer from France who makes his British debut here.
Garynella has form on the soft in France and has form over further than 2 miles, this race will take some getting in the ground and proving he gets further than 2 miles sways him into favour. He is officially 2lb out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me to much and he gets in off a featherweight. It hasn't gone unnoticed as he's 7/2 joint-favourite generally, which is possibly a tad short so at the prices I will be having Pepite Rose E/W.
Advice - Pepite Rose - 1.5pt EW @17/2 Bet365
Garrynella - 3pt Win @4/1 Paddy Power
2:30 - Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup
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| Notus De La Tour should handle the ground and has a big race win in him somewhere |
Walkon is fancied to go one better than his 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He is best fresh and has struggled to build upon his efforts first time out in the past, consequently I can't be having him and 4/1 doesn't represent any value anyway.
Unioniste comes into the race very unexposed having won a novice chase at Aintree, before being out classed here last month behind Dynaste. He is on a potentially attractive handicap mark on his handicap debut and should handle the ground having won on heavy in France. His age worries me as a 4 year old may find the hustle and bustle of a competitive handicap unnerving. Also the jockey booking of Harry Derham, whose claim of 5lb is very useful, is a bit of a worry as I would prefer a jockey with more experience in a race such as this. Ruby Walsh partners
Cristal Bonus whose winning seasonal reappearance at Down Royal was impressive and he loves the soft. As a novice chaser last year he ranked highly, running very well to finish 2nd to Menorah at Aintree after not being right at the festival, he is very highly rated at home. 157 is high mark to be winning this though, however siding against second season chasers this year hasn't been advisable. Has strong claims.
Notus De La Tour takes my vote as a progressive horse who has been on my radar for some time. I have no qualms about him going in the ground as he is a French bred, who also ran creditably in Ireland last term in testing conditions. There is hopefully improvement to come and I would hope he is a bit better than his current mark of 144. 7/1 is probably a bit short on reflection of his chance though, I am on ante-post at 10/1.
Nadiya De La Vega won here in October and was raised to 145, she ran to that mark in the Paddy Power too but probably isn't the best handicapped horse in the race.
Quantitativeeasing has a win and two 2nds to his name at the track but still looks held in the handicappers hands, much like
Astracad and
Renard, although the former stepping up in trip could bring out some improvement.
I think
Tatenen is best going right handed and doesn't have a great Cheltenham record, whilst
Wishfull Thinking has been a ridiculously annoying horse to follow, carrying top weight will be tricky and I'm not convinced how well the Hobbs horses are running at the moment.
Michael Flips has been a little disappointing so far this season, he hasn't recaptured the form that saw him run 4th in last years Jewson.
Tartak is gradually slipping down the handicap the whole time and his day will come, whether it is here I don't know, but he may be worth a little wager each-way at 20/1.
Advice - Notus De La Tour - 10/1 Ante-Post.
Tartak - 0.5pt EW - @22/1 Coral
3:05 - Stan James International Hurdle
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| Grandouet (Centre) - If he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he should go close |
This is a match of up between 3 horses and choosing the winner has become increasingly difficult with the ground turning testing. Reigning Champion Hurdler
Rock On Ruby has been slightly overlooked for this as his victory in March has been rendered a bit of a fluke. I personally think that the win was much better than people are giving it credit. Noel Fehily knew his horse stayed 2 and a half miles so was prominent and kicked for home coming off the home bend, but he wasn't being caught on the line, I wouldn't say he 'slipped the field' either. It could be argued it was poor jockeyship from those behind, I think there is an element of that certainly, but that isn't solely responsible. I will stick my neck on the line and say Rock On Ruby was a decent winner of the Champion Hurdle. He won by 4 lengths, that margin wasn't diminishing close home. The fact the rest of the field didn't get to fellow front runner Overturn either is the counter-argument, they were 2 lengths off him, but 6 lengths off Rock On Ruby! On that basis I can't see how he isn't favourite for this. We know he stays 2 and a half and that will be to his advantage tomorrow on ground that will make it more of a stamina test. He is currently 2/1, there is a bit of value in that price.
Zarkandar is far too short for me at 5/4. Admittedly he wasn't right last year and still ran a staying on fifth in the Champion Hurdle after winning the Betfair, before falling at Aintree. His reappearance win at Wincanton was very taking considering he was giving away 17lb to the second, he also showed excellent battling qualities. The run he has under his belt will assist and he will be 100% fit for this, which is a bonus on the testing ground. The 4lb he receives off the other big players in the market will assist and the bigger emphasis on 'stamina' the new course requires will be right up his street, I still think he is best over 2 and a half. However, at the prices he's best left alone. One of the forgotten horses this year is
Grandouet. Before injury struck he was my fancy for this Champion Hurdle having one this race last year, in the process getting rid of any doubts he wouldn't get up the Prestbury Park hill. A long absence of just over a year isn't ideal and the energy sapping ground will bring any lack of fitness to the fore, however Nicky Henderson is the master at bringing horses back from a break to win first time out. Hopefully he retains all old ability and if he can reproduce the form that saw him win this last year, he will be hard to beat. At the prices, 5/2 is the best value in the race to me.
Advice - Grandouet - 3pt Win @5/2 Paddy Power
Other horses of interest tomorrow:
Aerial
Vasco Du Ronceray
Ikorodu Road E/W
Easter Meteor
Cheers,
Josh
@JoshRWDown
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